Swing District Analysis

NFRA Newsletter ^ | November 12, 2006 | Grover Norquist

[WOSG]

There are now 58 House Democrats elected in districts that voted for Bush in 2004. There are now only nine House Republicans elected in districts that voted for Kerry in 2004. Note the larger Bush Margins than Kerry margins. Those 58 Dem’s are in more difficult districts than the nine R’s.

If in 2008 the R's only won those districts that performed 58% or more for Bush in 2004 they would pick up 18seats.

If in 2008, the R's only win those districts that performed 55% or more for Bush in 2004, they would pick up 32 seats.

Remember, when Bush won in 2004 it was with only 51% of the vote. This is a low party vote for president, not a Reagan landslide number.

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58 Democrats in Districts Carried by Bush
	U.S. Rep.	District	Bush %		U.S. Rep.	District		Bush %
Alan Mollohan	WV-1	58%		Mike McIntyre	NC-7	56%
Allen Boyd	FL-2	54%			Mike Ross	AR-4	51%
Bart Gordon	TN-6	60%		Nick Rahall	WV-3	53%
Bart Stupak	MI-1	53%		Rick Boucher	VA-9	59%
Ben Chandler	KY-6	58%			Ruben Hinojosa	TX-15	55%
Bob Etheridge	NC-2	54%		Sanford Bishop	GA-2	54%
Brian Baird		WA-3	50%		Solomon Ortiz	TX-27	55%
Bud Cramer	AL-5	60%		Stephanie Herseth	SD-AL	60%
Charlie Melancon	LA-3	58%			Ted Strickland	OH-6	51%
Chet Edwards	TX-17	70%		Tim Bishop	NY-1	49%
Collin Peterson		MN-7	55%		Tim Holden	PA-17	58%
Dan Boren	OK-2	59%		Vic Snyder	AR-2	51%
Darlene Hooley	OR-5	50%			Harry Mitchell	AZ-5	54%
Dennis Cardoza	CA-18	50%		Gabrielle Giffords	AZ-8	53%
Dennis Moore		KS-3	55%		Jerry McNerney	CA-11	54%
Earl Pomeroy	ND-AL	63%		Tim Mahoney	FL-16	54%
Gene Taylor	MS-4	68%			Joe Donnelly	IN-2	56%
Henry Cuellar	TX-28	53%		Brad Ellsworth	IN-8	56%
Ike Skelton		MO-4	58%		Baron Hill	IN-9	59%
Jim Marshall	GA-3	55%		Nancy Boyda	KS-2	59%
Jim Matheson	UT-2	66%			Tim Walz	MN-1	51%
John Salazar	CO-3	55%		Heath Shuler	NC-11	57%
John Spratt		SC-5	57%		Carol Shea-Porter	NH-1	51%
John Tanner	TN-8	53%		Kristen Gillibrand	NY-20	54%
Leonard Boswell	IA-3	50%			Mike Arcuri	NY-24	53%
Lincoln Davis	TN-4	58%		Zack Space	OH-18	57%
Loretta Sanchez		CA-47	50%		Jason Altmire	PA-4	54%
Marion Berry	AR-1	52%		Chris Carney	PA-10	60%
Melissa Bean	IL-8	56%			Steve Kagen	WI-8	55%
9 Republicans in Districts Carried by Kerry
U.S. Rep.	District	Kerry %
Charlie Dent	PA-15	50%			Jim Gerlach	PA-6	51%
Christopher Shays	CT-4	54%		Mark Kirk	IL-10	53%
Dave Reichert*		WA-8	51%		Michael Castle	DE-AL	53%
Heather Wilson*	NM-1	51%		Rob Simmons*	CT-2	54%
James Walsh	NY-25	50%
*indicates official election results not in

[misterrob]

If Democrats are competitive in some place I don't see how those places could be considered deep red.

[greasepaint]

as usual, Republicans tried to cut their own throats.
this time, it worked.

Republicans, the stupid party.

Voters are tired of the war.
what about that, don't people get?

[comebacknewt]

Barring a miracle, we don't have a chance to win back the Senate for at least six years. Even then it will be very tough.

I could see us winning back the House as early as '08 though if we run the right Presidential candidate.

[WOSG]

What's even more odd is how liberal Rep Boucher is. He's no true boll weevil or 'conservative Democrat', he's a snake in the grass ...
not a raving moonbat, but definitely liberal. Got and A from NRA, but 100% NARAL, low ratings from taxpayers, overall much more liberal than conservative:

2005 According to the National Journal - Composite Liberal Score's calculations, in 2005, Representative Boucher voted more liberal on economic, defense and foreign policy issues than 64 percent of the Representatives.

2005 According to the National Journal - Liberal on Social Policy's calculations, in 2005, Representative Boucher voted more liberal on social policy issues than 61 percent of the Representatives.

2005 According to the National Journal - Composite Conservative Score's calculations, in 2005, Representative Boucher voted more conservative on economic, defense and foreign policy issues than 36 percent of the Representatives.

2005 Representative Boucher supported the interests of the Americans for Democratic Action 90 percent in 2005.

2005 Representative Boucher supported the interests of the American Federation of Government Employees 92 percent in 2005.

2005 Representative Boucher supported the interests of the National Education Association 100 percent in 2005.


Conservative ratings:

2005 Representative Boucher supported the interests of the Citizens Against Government Waste 15 percent in 2005.

2005 Representative Boucher supported the interests of the American Conservative Union 25 percent in 2005.

2006 Representative Boucher supported the interests of the Americans for Prosperity 0 percent in 2006.

2005-2006 Representative Boucher supported the interests of the Concerned Women for America 42 percent in 2005-2006.

2005 Representative Boucher supported the interests of the Eagle Forum 33 percent in 2005.

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PS. The ratings from Chet Edwards of TX-17 are similar.
The MO looks similar. Have a few conservative votes on guns, a few throwaway votes on immigration, and vote for the local issues (eg farm economy); but then support the unions 100%, the secular social issues caucus as much as politically palatable, and vote against whatever tax reductions you can get away with without being tagged 'tax and spend'. oh, and use deficit hawkishness as a cover for supporting higher taxes ("I'm concerned about the deficit so we cant afford these giveaways ... and btw, vote for me because I bring home the bacon.")

These snakes in the grass can be destroyed by exposing their 2 weakest points - social issues hypocrisy and tax issues.
Actually 3 now: Their connection and support of the liberal Congressional leadership ties them.

They can only be defeated if the opponent nationalizes the campaign in a way that ties them to the liberal leadership.
It will be easier for a challenger in these districts to run against "Liberal Democrat Nancy Pelosi's sidekick" than to run against mr entrenched local favorite.

[WOSG]

"Barring a miracle, we don't have a chance to win back the Senate for at least six years. Even then it will be very tough."

You are way overly pessimistic.

LA politics has flipped due to katrina, and the Democrats have lost more votes than Landreiu won by in the last go around.
Expect that to be a better than 50/50 pickup.
MT is 50/50 and SD and Ark are close to that too, especially in Presidential year. The Senate shift this year guarantees we have a better campaign next time.

I'd say the over/under for the GOP in 2008 is a +2. We defend a lot of seats, but like the Dems this year, we are likely to not lost any of them, because the minority status will give us some issues to run on as Democrats overreach.

[comebacknewt]

I hope you are right, but I think Collins and Domenici both retire, and I doubt we hold either one of their seats.

The Dems will also come hard after Coleman, Sununu and Gordon Smith (among others) as well. I think we are on the defensive again in '08.

[KoRn]

I found similar data during mt research of Boucher and have voted accordingly. Unfortunately, no one in this area has brought attention to this. This hasn't been mentioned by his opponents in the last 3 cycles. I can't imagine why they don't go after him on his closet liberalism.

[comebacknewt]

Add John Warner as a likely retiree and Allard as another vulnerable GOP seat.

[WOSG]

First step in retaking the House is retooling the leadership ...

That means getting Pence and Shadegg in there ... here is what I am sending to my Congressman, you might want to do the same:



I am crushed but not overly surprised by the Republican loss in the elections.
Republicans lost in 2006 because the Republican Congress failed to articulate sound principles and failed to show how you were keeping promises to the voters. In your particular campaign, I was disappointed that there was nary a hint of espousing the cosnrevative view of smaller Government and lower taxes.

The only way forward is a fresh start and a return to conservative values:

Please support Mike Pence for minority leader and John Shadegg for minority whip. And please support ending earmarks and a strong GOP resistance to the Democrats' liberal agenda.

I support Pence's statement about what the GOP in the House needs to do. Pence released a document containing a five-point vision in which he declared that ''our primary task these next two years: to expose, dismantle and defeat the 'principles to which we have been forced to succumb.'''

Please join him in that mission. You need to be gearing up to defend our freedom from Democrat policies. You need to defend Republican policies, views and positions more strongly, more forcefully and more successfully.

Those of us who voted for you are counting on you to truly represent us. Please do so by supporting Pence and Shadegg.

[WOSG]

"This hasn't been mentioned by his opponents in the last 3 cycles."

Huh, what do they go after then?

[KoRn]

"Huh, what do they go after then?"

As far as I've been able to tell no one really mounts a serious campaign against him. In this last cycle he was actually attacked for the first time that I can remember, and that was just for the terrible loss of jobs in our region. All of that was more due to NAFTA and trade with China than anything Boucher had supported lol. It's a start I guess...

[ClaireSolt]

It seems to me that Pence's media experience is a big asset. He might create a PR offensive that they need.

[Senator Goldwater]

Also, compile and photos, footage, soundbites etc tying Pelosi's visage around these Nancy Boy's necks.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Boucher could get caught with both a live boy and a dead woman and still win by 30% points."

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From what I've heard, the odds of Boucher getting caught in bed with a dead woman are very, very low.

BTW, that's what they used to say about RINO James Leach in the Democrat-leaning IA-02 (which gave Kerry his highest percentage in a GOP-held district) until he lost last Tuesday. Funny how a bad electoral environment can smoke out even "entrenched" incumbents. If Boucher faces a top-tier challenger and 2008 is a good GOP year, he may find that his local support was a mile wide and an inch deep.

[Cacique]

btt

[CPT Clay]

bump

[RobFromGa]

driveby bump

[1035rep]

bookmark

[WOSG]

"BTW, that's what they used to say about RINO James Leach in the Democrat-leaning IA-02 (which gave Kerry his highest percentage in a GOP-held district) until he lost last Tuesday. Funny how a bad electoral environment can smoke out even "entrenched" incumbents. If Boucher faces a top-tier challenger and 2008 is a good GOP year, he may find that his local support was a mile wide and an inch deep."

That would be the hope. But it can only happen if we 'nationalize' these races on issues favorable to Republicans. that would be taxes, spending, social issues, and weak v strong on defense/national security.

However, so far, Bush is doing everything he can to annoint the Democrats with as much power as possible and meet in the middle. The frightening result of this will be the disaffection of conservatives and the ability of Democrats to mush up issues.

We need a) lots of liberal legislation voted on in Congress, *and* b) the veto pen needs to come out and it needs to strike thebad stuff down so people know where the GOP is, and c) challengeers need to run against these folks with a

"TOO LIBERAL, TOO LONG." Message.

[MNJohnnie]

Ping!