J.D> Hayworth's(2006 immigration hardliner) election results from 2000-2006

CNN Election reults ^ | November 15, 2006

[Dane]

2000
Arizona-6
Hayworth 171,446 61%
Nelson 101,697 37%

2002
Arizona-5
Republican Hayworth 86,191 61%

Democratic Columbus 52,192 37%

Libertarian Severin 3,703 2%

2004
Arizona-5
Republican Hayworth 159,455 60%

Democratic Rogers 102,363 38%
Libertarian Kielsky 6,189 2%

2006
Arizona-5
Democratic Mitchell 73,762 51%

Republican Hayworth 67,830 46%
Libertarian Severin 4,754 3%

[Dane]

Huh from 2000 to 2004, J.D. Hayworth had at least 60% of the vote, but between 2004 and 2006, when Hayworth joined the immigration hardline bandwagon in 2004, he loses in 2006 in a conservative district.

[Rokke]

He was "being taught a lesson".

[TeenagedConservative]

I love how the MSM will play this as if immigration lost him the election.

Immigration was not a national issue in 2000 or 04. Plus, Hayworth was kicked out by the outraged base, not miffed middle voters.

[My2Cents]

I have yet to see any real evidence that a hard-line on immigration is a political winner.

[libbylu]

Excuse me for yelling.... THERE WAS MORE TO IT THAN AMNESTY/IMMIGRATION. WHY THE HECK DO YOU THINK ARIZONA PASSED 4 COUNT THEM 4!!!! ANTI-IMMIGRATION LAWS?????????
Nevermind, but don't ask me to drink your koolade.

[Riverman94610]

Also note that GOP turnout was way down and so was overall turnout comparing 2004 to 2006.
I think it was more of Hayworth getting swept up in the Dem tidal wave rather than just his anti-illegal platform since his Dem opponent was not much different on that issue than Hayworth.

[taxed2death]

Tancredo.

[Jeff Head]

I do not believe it was because of his immigration stand. His oppnent on this issue was also taking a realtively hard line. Why? Because in the state of Arizona they are passing popular ballot initiatives addressing the issue too...so I do not believe it was his stance on immigration that cost him the election.

But that's just my opinion from way up here in Idaho.

[John Lenin]

Do you trust these two?

[Holden Magroin]

Bush probably sent out an order to cut off support to anyone who deigned to oppose his plan to grant amnesty to 20 million illegals. Bush is hellbent on crippling his own party.

[Soul Seeker]

Not that it will ever penetrate your head, but the poster in #8 is correct.

J.D.'s opponent ran as a hard liner on illegal immigration and Arizona voters overwhelming approved amendments that took a hard line against illegal immigration.

Ergo, J.D.'s stance on illegal immigration was neutralized because his opponenet took the same position. So if you wish to prove enforcement is a loser, you'll have to take a look at the intiatives on the ballot. And given they went the border enforcement crowd's way, YOU seem to find yourself embarrassed in the conclusion amnesty is a peferred path by the American people.

[Dane]

I think it was more of Hayworth getting swept up in the Dem tidal wave rather than just his anti-illegal platform since his Dem opponent was not much different on that issue than Hayworth.

Really, his democrat opponent who's first vote in the 110th Congress will be for nancy pelosi was different from J.D Hayworth's immigration position.

[msnimje]

Where were the other 100,000 Republicans who voted for him in 2004?

Shame on them.

[McGavin999]

Actually Jeff, you're correct. I spoke to some of the people in his district that are very active. Most were furious about the accusations of the Abrahmoff money supposedly paid to JD.

[Dane]

Bush probably sent out an order to cut off support to anyone who deigned to oppose his plan to grant amnesty to 20 million illegals. Bush is hellbent on crippling his own party.

Really? Then when why did the Republican party pay for this ad for Hayworth?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6W7ocPBqApc

[zbigreddogz]

Immigration was not a national issue in 2000 or 04.

If that's true, why are all the Tancredo folks out there shouting that it's because wern't harsh enough on immigration that we lost?

[Dane]

Ergo, J.D.'s stance on illegal immigration was neutralized because his opponenet took the same position. So if you wish to prove enforcement is a loser, you'll have to take a look at the intiatives on the ballot.

Really a person whose first vote in the 110th Congress(Mitchell) will be for nancy pelosi had a tougher line on immigration.

LOL!

[zbigreddogz]

He's won what, exactly, other then a safe house seat?

[catholicfreeper]

The current hardline position is not. I wished people would look at the Dems that rans against these guys and their immigration position. There seems some propaganda that keeps circulating that Haysworth opponent copied him on immigration. That not true

Haysworth opponent was very tough. Wnated big border security and really wants to fine Employers. He also talked about guest worker and pathway for those that paid a fine, learned English, were not violent felons, and held a job. This was different from Hayworth. People like programs that are tough but rational.

As to these amendsments many of them got vast Hispanic support. THe problem is that many of these hispanics voted for the Dem because ven though they are against illegal immigration they think the Tancredo approach is too hardline. We never listened to them. We ask for their votes on pro life issues etc but to listen to thme on this was called hispandering. I cant think of anything more insulting. Why would many hispanics would vote for a party where so many people in the party use the term hispandering. I am not saying we got no hispanic vote. But I think overall it was a turnoff. Last year was nasty and often the rethoric was over the top. We can expect some collateral damage from this

[getmeouttaPalmBeachCounty_FL]

Maybe some vote count shenanigans going on here? Maybe they are sllllowly counting these ballots so that JD will just fade on out. This is just insane that the count is taking so long. No doubt, the 'Rats are using their system of math. One for you, two for me.

[catholicfreeper]

PLus we spent a heck of a bunch of money on Santorium. What about all the money Sen Kyl got in Arizona.

[Riverman94610]

OK,then the rumors I had heard about them being the same was erroneous.
Its just very hard to believe that Hayworth could have lost to a liberal Democrat unless that district had undergone a major demographic shift over only a two year period.

[GarySpFc]

Dane, we know you are rejoicing that an anti-illegal alien lost. I long ago became convinced you are a Democrat.

[GOP_1900AD]

What about those state level voter propositions? Arizonans hate illegal immigration.

[sasafras]

Two things for liberal idiots to understand

1)Tempe is not a liberal district - it encompasses the ASU campus.

2) This was a referendum on the war and RINO Bush - all of the anti-illegal amendments passed easily and Kyl ( a hardliner on Amnesty) also won easily.

Dane - we all know your a plant from the RINOs and hate America types but its so easy to see through your lies and laugh at such stupidity.

[Dane]

Dane, we know you are rejoicing that an anti-illegal alien lost. I long ago became convinced you are a Democrat.

Yeah as I voted a straight GOP ticket and did not aid in nancy pelosi ascending the Speakership as other "conservatives" did by sitting out the election and thus giving nancy pelosi a vote by proxy.

[GOP_1900AD]

No, he's hellbent on melding more traditional GOP values with the pap spewed by Francis Fukuyama, Thomas L.Friedman and Thomas P.M. Barnett. To our peril ... and his ... as we have seen. Neo liberalism and Transnational Progressivism have no place in the GOP. I say shrink the tent and make it a stronger party.

[dirtboy]

Dane's been ignoring the problems posed by Hayworth's tied to Abramoff, which took out a lot of pubbies this election across the political spectrum.

[Dawgreg]

Hold the phone........he was on Hannity's show last week and this ain't over yet. There were uncounted votes and it may take a week or so to sort them out and Hayworth says it looks favorable to him. Stay tuned.

[Rome2000]

Try comparing turnout from 2006 to 2002 and you will see turnout was the same.

This guy just ran a lousy campaign and probably lost a lot of legal hispanic votes due to his illegal alien fetish.

There is a way to tackle the illegal problem without getting voted out of office but JD thought he knew better.

[sasafras]

"1)Tempe is not a liberal district - it encompasses the ASU campus."

Meant to say that Tempe is not a conservative district, because of the campus.

[Reagan Man]

>>>>2) This was a referendum on the war and RINO Bush....

BINGO!

[juliej]

do you think JD can win the seat again? I am saddened by this loss - plus the losses by Northup and MElissa Hart. Lost some good pro life people.

[ruination]

Next door in Nevada, John Ensign (A+ against amnesty) got 55% to Jack "A path to citizenship must exist" Carter's 41%.

[WatchingInAmazement]

"Our surveys show that immigration is the most important issue for likely voters in this state," says Fred Solop, a political scientist at Northern Arizona University and director of the Social Research Laboratory there. But voters aren't distinguishing between competing proposals, he adds: "They just want something to be done."

http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/1026/p01s02-uspo.html

[old and cranky]

If I can say thank goodness for anything in this election, it would be thank goodness Jack Carter lost.

[narby]

if you wish to prove enforcement is a loser ...

The Repubs lost a large percentage of hispanic voters this election. With votes so close, like J.D.s, in a state with a heavy hispanic population, it's not hard to make the case that the unworkable "enforcement only" position cost him his seat.

[Torie]

Sorry Dane; all anti-illegal immigration roads do not lead to political oblivion. Hayworth lost not because of the immigration issue, but because of scandal primarily, with his image of being a pompous blowhard of which some voters tired over time, perhaps a secondary factor.

[catholicfreeper]

I think he has a shot. Or at least another pro life a conservative does. TO be honest we had no business losing some of these elections. Its not because conservatives stayed home either. I think in many of these races despite being warned by the RNC that they were in trouble some people refused to believe they had a race on their hands.

National Review stated the Northup race as one of the prime examples of Northup losing a race because of that. I also think despite all this analysis of why the GOP lost we neglect to consider some of these folks had not had a tough race in years. Some have never had a tought relelction fight since 94.

I think Northup and Hart can get back in. I am optimistics because besides Northups district(that I think went to Kerry) most of these districts went to Bush.

On the pro life issue I think we pro lifers need to see we have a big problem that goes way beyond the Congress. The fact that we lost the stem cell resarch issue in Montana and the Abortion Referendum in South Dakota shows us we have a way to go in educating the public. In all this rush to blame the gop and politicians those votes make me think that some of the blame lies with us. I hate to say it but I don't feel the intensity among our pro life forcs on educating the public like I used too

[Antoninus]

Could it be that the Democrat was perceived as being even MORE of an immigration hardliner than Hayworth?? Nahh....

[The Toll]

True, the rule of law is certainly worth disregarding in exchange for electoral victory. I think if the GOP gets back in power they should just do away with elections forever. The silly antiquated notion of electing your own representation is just a bunch of stupid old laws that nobody is enforcing anyway. What's the harm?

[dirtboy]

Hayworth conceded yesterday.

[catholicfreeper]

You might have a point. However that coupled with Grafs loss makes me think there is some data showing that Americans are thinking just a tad different on this issue. Plus look at Colorado and losing the Governors race.

I know the response will be as to Graff well he didnt have RNC money. But I am looking at the monetary support he recieved from PACs and ANti illiegal immigration groups and it was substantial. In fact he was the only person to recieve assistance from Simcox's Minuteman pac during OCt and Novemebr as a example according to FEC filings

So I do think we can see a trend here

[discostu]

Actually none of them were anti-immigration laws. They were anti-big-glowing-sign-inviting-illegal-immigration laws.

[Dane]

I know the response will be as to Graff well he didnt have RNC money.

Actually david duke's endorsement of Graf was probably his biggest blunder.

[Torie]

Graf was a religious right creationist conservative in a marginal district, not all that friendly to that cohort. I suspect a lot of my wing of the party ran for the exits. His opponent was an attractive woman who came across as a soothing moderate, and had some chamber of commerce type support. Graf was toast from the minute he got the nomination.

What is true is that making illegal immigration a signature issue does not seem to round up many swing voters. I don't think the issue caused many votes to switch either way in either the 5th or 8th district in Arizona.

[ruination]

According to these numbers, Graf spent 44% of what Giffords spent. And, while Giffords had more PAC money, Graf had more from individual donors.

[Ben Ficklin]

Arizonans want enforcement and comprehensive reform. Thus, they voted for the enforcement referendums and against Hayworth and Graf, who were enforcement only.

Exit polling of Arizona voters showed the same thing with 60 percent supporting amnesty.

[The Iguana]

I have two words for you:

Jack Abramoff.

Exit surveys and polls during the race suggest this was the #1 issue that did in Hayworth. He was one of the most closely tied to Abramoff.

Jon Kyl, who was also hardline on immigration, sailed to victory in Arizona. He had no Abramoff/scandal issues.

I'm not saying Hayworth didn't lose any votes over his immigration stance. But it doesn't seem to have been the main reason he lost.

[hosepipe]

How large was the Legal and Illegal alien VOTE this cycle?...
Obviously quite large..

How can somebody vote when they are not even citizens of this country?...
Isn't that voter fraud?..