Central Coast 2008 (McClintock Leaning against Congressional Run)

Some of you will probably recall that I entertained a hypothetical notion weeks before Election Day. I asked, 'What Happens in The 19th District When McClintock Wins?' At the time, it looked as if the highly-respected conservative Senator from the Central Coast would be our next Lieutenant Governor and vacate his State Senate seat prompting an open primary election in the early months of 2007. I also presumed my friend and former Assemblyman Tony Stickland would be our next Controller, as he was outpacing Democrat BOE member John Chiang both in fundraising and the polls. Those predictions proved faulty after the unions noticed Angelides was a lost cause and began reinvesting massive amounts of money in IEs for the down ticket Democrats. However, the Republicans' demise on Election Day only slightly augments and temporarily postpones the question I asked back on October 14th.

What happens in the 19th and 24th Districts When McClintock and Gallegly retire?

Yes, the rumors out of the Central Coast are that State Senator Tom McClintock, a man I have admired since my days as one of his college constituents and gubernatorial supporters, will leave public office in 2008 without plans for an immediate return. I hope he publishes an anthology of his writings and speeches. The day after Election Day, I reread many of the speeches he has featured on his website worried that this highly intelligent government watchman would soon be lost to the taxpaying citizens of California. I was heartened by a phone call days later informing me that Tom McClintock has no intention of discontinuing his service and may be founding a nonprofit taxpayer rights and government accountability group. Read: he's not planning to run for Congress.

In addition, everyone and their neighbor in Republican politics is probably now aware that Congressman Elton Gallegly sought to retire from the House earlier in the year and that this created a firestorm in Ventura County Republican politics. Gallegly faced a primary challenge that split the county party. He announced his retirement intentions after filing for re-election and was forced into rerunning. The final day of filing for the primary turned into a mess.

Congressman Gallegly ran for re-election with the intention that the 110th Congress would be his last. By the end of the 110th, he will have loyally served his constituents for twenty years. He will have seen the House historically transferred from Democrat to Republican hands and then back again. Surely, the meager trappings of minority party status further the interest in retirement.

So, Central Coast Republicans have months to speculate on who might enter these two great contests of 2008. Let me offer my preferences.

I would like and suspect that with Gallegly's retirement will come a Strickland candidacy. The Stricklands are a young, ambitious power couple tried and tested by minority party life in Sacramento. Both would be able to serve 24th CD constituents well in the nation's capital for many, many years. Both would be prohibitive favorites for the seat.

But with a Strickland congressional candidacy, what happens to the vacated 19th State Senate District?

Again, there I introduce the desire to see one conservative run. There are many well-heeled liberal Republicans in this district who might easily spoil a primary contest pitting two conservative Republicans against each other. Again, there I would like to see a Mike Stoker candidacy that ended up not coming to pass. Big name backers have already been secured on his behalf that will probably extend their loyalties on to 2008.

Strickland and Stoker will likely be two names we will be reading and hearing a lot about from the Central Coast. I get a strong sense there is local jockeying already taking place between the sides. Look out! This is, as they say, certainly developing...

the rumors out of the Central Coast
Me thinks that someone is going to exaggerated lengths to distance them selves from Southern California if they're calling the 19th District the Central Coast. All but a small portion of the 19th is south of the extended Kern County line to Point Sal and that portion is all interior basin and range, a long way from the ocean.

Indeed!

Most of the population (60%) is in Ventura County,
with 35% in Santa Barbara County and 6% in Los Angeles County.
The 19th Senate district is definitely in SoCal, partly inland and partly on the coast.
Even though on the map the northern reaches of the 19th SD look like they might approach
the middle of CA, few people live there compared to the bulk of the district.
"Central Coast" is more appropriate for the 15th SD (San Luis Obispo and Monterey Counties).

The 24th Congressional District overlaps much of the 19th SD but excludes a narrow coastal area
along all of Santa Barbara County and all but a small section of Ventura County, and the 24th CD
includes the rest of the interior of Ventura County.

SENATE DISTRICT 19

(effective 02/2002)

                                           % Unit             Total           % Dem           % Rep                  Black   %Black    Asian  %Asian  Latino  %Latino
District     County        T Place          of all  Persons     Reg   Dem Reg   Reg   Rep Reg   Reg  % Gore % Bush     Pop    Pop      Pop    Pop      Pop    Pop 


19           Los Angeles   C Santa Clarita    27.4    41462    24582     7616   31.0    12651   51.5   40.5   55.9      773    1.9     3036    7.3     4776   11.5
                           R Remainder         5.7    10078     4959     1597   32.2     2434   49.1   44.7   52.4      350    3.5     1662   16.5     1278   12.7
             Sum                                      51540    29541     9213   31.2    15085   51.1   41.1   55.4     1123    2.2     4698    9.1     6054   11.7
             Santa Barbara C Buellton        100.0     3828     2126      734   34.5      986   46.4   40.8   54.5       41    1.1       76    2.0      985   25.7
                           C Carpinteria     100.0    14194     6931     3124   45.1     2336   33.7   52.0   41.3      165    1.2      444    3.1     6175   43.5
                           C Lompoc          100.0    41103    17008     7172   42.2     6491   38.2   42.6   53.0     3449    8.4     2191    5.3    15337   37.3
                           C Santa Barbara   100.0    92325    53428    25862   48.4    14512   27.2   58.6   32.4     2047    2.2     3304    3.6    32330   35.0
                           C Solvang         100.0     5332     3381      899   26.6     1953   57.8   32.5   63.4       36    0.7       95    1.8     1059   19.9
                           U Goleta          100.0    55204    34818    14370   41.3    13155   37.8   48.1   45.2      951    1.7     4172    7.6    12326   22.3
                           U Isla Vista      100.0    18344    19478     8183   42.0     3783   19.4   66.8   19.9      527    2.9     2539   13.8     3671   20.0
                           U Los Alamos      100.0     1372      699      221   31.6      320   45.8   36.4   60.6        4    0.3       20    1.5      476   34.7
                           U Mission Canyon  100.0     2610     2086      981   47.0      606   29.1   58.7   31.0       19    0.7       44    1.7      173    6.6
                           U Mission Hills   100.0     3142     1822      651   35.7      821   45.1   35.3   60.0      144    4.6      142    4.5      640   20.4
                           U Montecito       100.0    10000     7392     2298   31.1     3607   48.8   41.7   51.9       65    0.7      207    2.1      519    5.2
                           U Orcutt           30.4     8776     5573     1663   29.8     3047   54.7   29.2   67.8      166    1.9      392    4.5     1065   12.1
                           U Santa Ynez      100.0     4584     2972      797   26.8     1671   56.2   30.5   65.1       20    0.4       90    2.0      422    9.2
                           U Summerland      100.0     1545     1177      490   41.6      392   33.3   54.2   37.6       12    0.8       57    3.7      115    7.4
                           U Toro Canyon     100.0     1697     1101      370   33.6      478   43.4   46.4   48.2       14    0.8       36    2.1      276   16.3
                           U Vandenberg Vil  100.0     5802     4377     1358   31.0     2269   51.8   33.3   62.9      376    6.5      221    3.8      515    8.9
                           M Vandenberg AFB  100.0     6151     1284      332   25.9      555   43.2   28.9   69.7      857   13.9      392    6.4      683   11.1
                           R Remainder        82.9    16754    10280     3366   32.7     4849   47.2   36.7   56.8      147    0.9      356    2.1     3799   22.7
             Sum                                     292763   175933    72871   41.4    61831   35.1   49.6   43.1     9040    3.1    14778    5.0    80566   27.5

             Ventura       C Camarillo       100.0    57077    35740    11881   33.2    17773   49.7   41.6   54.2     1110    1.9     4955    8.7     8869   15.5
                           C Moorpark        100.0    31415    15508     5177   33.4     7257   46.8   42.5   53.6      598    1.9     2150    6.8     8735   27.8
                           C Ojai            100.0     7862     4872     2023   41.5     1811   37.2   51.4   39.3       75    1.0      180    2.3     1245   15.8
                           C San Buenaventu  100.0   100916    60269    24860   41.2    23092   38.3   48.5   45.2     2029    2.0     4104    4.1    24573   24.3
                           C Simi Valley     100.0   111351    61217    19259   31.5    29940   48.9   40.4   55.2     1855    1.7     8449    7.6    18729   16.8
                           C Thousand Oaks   100.0   117005    71725    22213   31.0    35563   49.6   42.5   53.4     1642    1.4     8199    7.0    15328   13.1
                           U Casa Conejo     100.0     3180     1874      565   30.1      914   48.8   41.7   53.3       40    1.3      139    4.4      502   15.8
                           U El Rio          100.0     6193     2376     1494   62.9      461   19.4   70.7   25.9      102    1.6      118    1.9     4791   77.4
                           U Meiners Oaks    100.0     3750     1993      770   38.6      750   37.6   45.6   45.7       28    0.7       56    1.5      866   23.1
                           U Mira Monte      100.0     7177     4346     1650   38.0     1757   40.4   42.4   49.6       47    0.7      137    1.9      951   13.3
                           U Oak Park        100.0     2320     1355      580   42.8      554   40.9   56.5   41.2        3    0.1      110    4.7      101    4.4
                           U Oak View        100.0     4199     2271      880   38.7      889   39.1   42.6   50.1       34    0.8       54    1.3      819   19.5
                           R Remainder        80.8    50043    27399     9366   34.2    12908   47.1   43.5   51.3      848    1.7     2493    5.0     9771   19.5
             Sum                                     502488   290945   100718   34.6   133669   45.9   43.7   51.4     8411    1.7    31144    6.2    95280   19.0
Sum                                                  846791   496419   182802   36.8   210585   42.4   45.5   48.8    18574    2.2    50620    6.0   181900   21.5

24th Congressional District:

Population (Based on 2000 Census): 639,088

Cities:

Ventura County: Camarillo, Fillmore, Moorpark, Ojai, Santa Paula, Simi Valley, Thousand Oaks, and Ventura.

Santa Barbara County: Buellton, Lompoc and Solvang.

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