Posted on 11/19/2006 2:41:41 PM PST by Mr. Brightside
CIA analysis finds no Iranian nuclear weapons drive: report
Sat Nov 18, 11:18 PM ET
WASHINGTON (AFP) - A classifed draft CIA assessment has found no firm evidence of a secret drive by Iran to develop nuclear weapons, as alleged by the White House, a top US investigative reporter has said.
Seymour Hersh, writing in an article for the November 27 issue of the magazine The New Yorker released in advance, reported on whether the administration of Republican President George W. Bush was more, or less, inclined to attack Iran after Democrats won control of Congress last week.
A month before the November 7 legislative elections, Hersh wrote, Vice President Dick Cheney attended a national-security discussion that touched on the impact of Democratic victory in both chambers on Iran policy.
"If the Democrats won on November 7th, the vice president said, that victory would not stop the administration from pursuing a military option with Iran," Hersh wrote, citing a source familiar with the discussion.
Cheney said the White House would circumvent any legislative restrictions "and thus stop Congress from getting in its way," he said.
The Democratic victory unleashed a surge of calls for the Bush administration to begin direct talks with Iran.
But the administration's planning of a military option was made "far more complicated" in recent months by a highly classified draft assessment by the Central Intelligence Agency "challenging the White House's assumptions about how close Iran might be to building a nuclear bomb," he wrote.
"The CIA found no conclusive evidence, as yet, of a secret Iranian nuclear-weapons program running paallel to the civilian operations that Iran has declared to the International Atomic Energy Agency," Hersh wrote, adding the CIA had declined to comment on that story.
A current senior intelligence official confirmed the existence of the CIA analysis and said the White House had been hostile to it, he wrote.
Cheney and his aides had discounted the assessment, the official said.
"They're not looking for a smoking gun," the official was quoted as saying, referring to specific intelligence about Iranian nuclear planning.
"They're looking for the degree of comfort level they think they need to accomplish the mission."
The United States and other major powers believe Iran's uranium enrichment program is ultimately aimed at producing fissile material for nuclear weapons.
Iran insists it will use the enriched uranium only to fuel nuclear power stations, something it is permitted to do as a signatory to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
The major powers have been debating a draft United Nations resolution drawn up by Britain, France and Germany that would impose limited sanctions on Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile sectors for Tehran's failure to comply with an earlier UN resolution on halting enrichment.
On Wednesday, Israel's outgoing US ambassador Danny Ayalon said in an interview that Bush would not hesitate to use force against Iran to halt its nuclear program if other options failed.
"US President George W. Bush will not hesitate to use force against Iran in order to halt its nuclear program," Ayalon told the Maariv daily.
Israel, widely considered the Middle East's sole if undeclared nuclear power, views Iran as its arch-foe, pointing to repeated calls by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to wipe the Jewish state off the map.
no firm evidence
That's from an agency that has no one on the ground over there. I think I would discount it.
You have got to love the leaks.LOL!
Ok, CIA say Iraq has wmd.....they didn't.
CIA say Iran doesn't want nukes...THEY DO.
Seems like fair logic.
Not true. They've had Ted Koppel over there for months.
Well of course we have found no secret nuclear program. Iran has been quite open about it...
I also forgot about Sean Penn... shame on me!
Leaks, leaks and more leaks.
And how many arrests?
The next Bush Cabinet Big who needs to check out is AG Gonzalez who is conspicuously missing in action.
Also - CIA certain Soviets will not move on Hungary!
Seymour Hersh again. I'm bookmarking this article for the time when the Iranians test their first bomb, as seems fairly likely at this point. That, of course, Hersh will call somebody else's fault at that point but it will be handy to have to shove in his face.
Who wrote the report? Valerie Plame? ;-)
That's true. It's not a secret.
Not making up my mind until I hear from Scott Ritter.
CIA Report Cites Continuing Weapons Proliferation
By Merle D. Kellerhals, Jr.
Washington File Staff Writer
Washington - Nations determined to maintain or expand their weapons
of mass destruction (WMD)and ballistic missile development programs
have been significantly insulating them against interdiction and
disruption, a Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) report says.
Additionally, the CIA report said that many of the countries that have
developed WMD and missile programs are rapidly trying to build
indigenous production capabilities to make themselves less dependent
on outside suppliers.
"Although these capabilities may not always be a good substitute for
foreign imports - particularly for more advanced technologies - in
many cases they may prove to be adequate," the semi-annual report
said. "In addition, as their domestic capabilities grow, traditional
recipients of WMD and missile technology could emerge as new suppliers
of technology and expertise."
The unclassified CIA report, "Acquisition of Technology Relating to
Weapons of Mass Destruction and Advanced Conventional Munitions," is
sent to Congress every six months. The current report, released
February 23, covers the period from January 1 to June 30, 2000.
The current report analyzes WMD and missile technology acquisition by
Iran, Iraq, North Korea, Libya, Syria, Sudan, India, Pakistan, and
Egypt, and also examines the key suppliers Russia, North Korea, China
and western nations.
"Some countries of proliferation concern are continuing efforts to
develop indigenous designs for advanced conventional weapons and
expand production capabilities, although most of these programs
usually rely heavily on foreign technical assistance," the report said
current trends suggest. "Many of these countries - unable to obtain
newer or more advanced arms - are pursuing upgrade programs for
existing inventories."
The CIA said it remains very concerned about Russian weapons
proliferation behavior, as a key supplier, and monitoring "will remain
a very high priority."
"Russian entities during the reporting period continued to supply a
variety of ballistic missile-related goods and technical know-how to
countries such as Iran, India, China, and Libya," the CIA said.
The reason for continued Russian proliferation stems, at least partly,
from Moscow's need for "badly needed foreign exchange through exports"
from the state-run defense and nuclear industries, which are also
strapped for funds, the report said.
The CIA said that because Iran was able to obtain technology and
materials from Russia, it accelerated Iranian development of the
Shahab-3 medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM).
In addition Russia has remained a significant source of dual-use
biotechnology, chemicals, production technology, and equipment for
Iran. "Russia's biological and chemical expertise make it an
attractive target for Iranians seeking technical information and
training on biological warfare (BW) and chemical warfare-agent (CW)
production processes," the report said.
North Korea continues to export significant ballistic missile-related
equipment and missile components, materials, and technical expertise
to countries in the Middle East, South Asia, and North Africa, the CIA
said.
The report also said China has continued to provide substantial
missile-related technical assistance to Pakistan. It has also provided
assistance to Iran, North Korea and Libya, the report said.
Iran remains one of the most active countries seeking to acquire WMD
and advanced conventional weapons technology from abroad to develop an
indigenous capability to produce biological, chemical and nuclear
weapons, the CIA said. It has sought the technology from Russia,
China, North Korea, and Western Europe.
"Iran, a Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) party, already has
manufactured and stockpiled several thousand tons of chemical weapons,
including blister, blood, and choking agents, and the bombs and
artillery shells for delivering them," the report said.
The CIA report may be viewed on the Web at
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/bian/bian_feb_2001.htm
(The Washington File is a product of the Office of International
Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Website:
http://usinfo.state.gov)
They really going to do this....
They just hate President Bush so much ...that they will say this..and print this...
I see the elections just emboldened the goofballs more..
Regards, Ivan
Written by who?Valerie Plame? Go figure.
The CIA doesn't seem to be on Americas side any more. They've been faking info since desert storm. It was their reporting that got us into Iraq looking for WMDs. So far, we've found a few, but nothing like they claimed. Why should we believe anything they say now?
This is such a pantload.
Time to put and end to Tehran's ambitions.
Plutonium was found in the waste from one of their project sites. Now what exactly do you think they were doing isolating plutonium?
Do they use a lot of hard narcotics at the CIA or what?
The smoking gun that the CIA sought and failed to find is a news chopper's live feed of a radioactive mushroom cloud over Jerusalem and Tel Aviv. Iran plans that evidence for 2009, although they might move that date forward if impeachment succeeds.
And North Korea only wanted to make electric power.
I guess the nukes they just tested fell out of a tree.
I stopped at Seymour Hersh.
Yeah, the CIA completely missed that PakiNuke but they promise they know what they're talking about this time and it's not political.
Acquisition by Country
As required by Section 721 of the FY 1997 Intelligence Authorization Act, the following are country summaries of acquisition activities (solicitations, negotiations, contracts, and deliveries) related to weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and advanced conventional weapons (ACW) that occurred from 1 January through 30 June 2003. We have excluded countries that already have established WMD programs, as well as countries that demonstrated little WMD acquisition activity of concern.
Iran
Iran continued to vigorously pursue indigenous programs to produce WMD-nuclear, chemical, and biological-and their delivery systems as well as ACW. To this end, Iran continued to seek foreign materials, training, equipment, and know-how. During the reporting period, Iran still focused particularly on entities in Russia, China, North Korea, and Europe.
Nuclear. The United States remains convinced that Tehran has been pursuing a clandestine nuclear weapons program, in violation of its obligations as a party to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT). To bolster its efforts to establish domestic nuclear fuel-cycle capabilities, Iran sought technology that can support fissile material production for a nuclear weapons program.
Iran tried to use its civilian nuclear energy program to justify its efforts to establish domestically or otherwise acquire assorted nuclear fuel-cycle capabilities. In August 2002, an Iranian opposition group disclosed that Iran was secretly building a heavy water production plant and a "nuclear fuel" plant. Press reports later in the year confirmed these two facilities using commercial imagery and clarified that the "fuel" plant was most likely a large uranium centrifuge enrichment facility located at Natanz. Commercial imagery showed that Iran was burying the enrichment facility presumably to hide it and harden it against military attack. Following the press disclosures, Iran announced at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) September 2002 General Conference that it had "ambitious" nuclear fuel cycle plans and intended to develop all aspects of the entire fuel cycle. By the end of 2002, the IAEA had requested access to the enrichment facility at Natanz, and the IAEA Director General (DG) for the first time visited the facility in February 2003. The IAEA is investigating the newly disclosed facilities, and previously undisclosed nuclear material imports to determine whether Iran has violated its NPT-required IAEA safeguards agreement in developing these facilities and their related technologies. At the June 2003 Board of Governors meeting, the IAEA DG presented a report on the Iranian program noting Tehran had failed to meet its safeguards obligations in a number of areas. The DG's report described a pattern of Iranian safeguards failures related to the undeclared import and processing of uranium compounds in the early 1990s, expressed concern over the lack of cooperation from Iran with IAEA inspections, and identified a number of unresolved concerns in Iran's program that the IAEA will continue to investigate. The IAEA Board on 19 June welcomed the report and called on Iran to answer all IAEA questions, cooperate fully with IAEA inspectors, and sign and implement an Additional Protocol immediately and unconditionally.
Although Iran claims that its nascent enrichment plant is to produce fuel for the Russian-assisted construction projects at Bushehr and other possible future power reactors, we remain concerned that Iran is developing enrichment technology to produce fissile material for nuclear weapons under the cover of legitimate fuel cycle activities. Iran appears to be embarking on acquiring nuclear weapons material via both acquisition paths—highly enriched uranium and low burn-up plutonium. Even with intrusive IAEA safeguards inspections at Natanz, there is a serious risk that Iran could use its enrichment technology in covert activities. Of specific proliferation concern are the uranium centrifuges discovered at Natanz, which are capable of enriching uranium for use in nuclear weapons. Iran claims its heavy water plant is for peaceful purposes. In June, Iran informed the IAEA that it is pursuing a heavy water research reactor that we believe could produce plutonium for nuclear weapons. We also suspect that Tehran is interested in acquiring fissile material and technology from foreign suppliers to support its overall nuclear weapons program.
Ballistic Missile. Ballistic missile-related cooperation from entities in the former Soviet Union, North Korea, and China over the years has helped Iran move toward its goal of becoming self-sufficient in the production of ballistic missiles. Such assistance during the first half of 2003 continued to include equipment, technology, and expertise. Iran's ballistic missile inventory is among the largest in the Middle East and includes some 1,300-km-range Shahab-3 medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) and a few hundred short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs)—including the Shahab-1 (Scud-B), Shahab-2 (Scud C), and Tondar-69 (CSS-8)—as well as a variety of large unguided rockets. Already producing Scud SRBMs, Iran announced that it had begun production of the Shahab-3 MRBM and a new solid-propellant SRBM, the Fateh-110. In addition, Iran publicly acknowledged the development of follow-on versions of the Shahab-3. It originally said that another version, the Shahab-4, was a more capable ballistic missile than its predecessor but later characterized it as solely a space launch vehicle with no military applications. Iran is also pursuing longer-range ballistic missiles.
Chemical. Iran is a party to the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC). Nevertheless, during the reporting period it continued to seek production technology, training, and expertise from Chinese entities that could further Tehran's efforts to achieve an indigenous capability to produce nerve agents. Iran likely has already stockpiled blister, blood, choking, and probably nerve agents—and the bombs and artillery shells to deliver them—which it previously had manufactured.
Biological. Even though Iran is part of the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC), Tehran probably maintained an offensive BW program. Iran continued to seek dual-use biotechnical materials, equipment, and expertise. While such materials had legitimate uses, Iran's biological warfare (BW) program also could have benefited from them. It is likely that Iran has capabilities to produce small quantities of BW agents, but has a limited ability to weaponize them.
Advanced Conventional Weapons. Iran continued to seek and acquire conventional weapons and production technologies, primarily from Russia, China, and North Korea. Tehran also sought high-quality products, particularly weapons components and dual-use items, or products that proved difficult to acquire through normal governmental channels.
https://www.cia.gov/cia/reports/721_reports/jan_jun2003.htm#iran
Looks to me like the CIA works for the UN not the USA!
I was trying to remember his name when I saw your post. Thanks. What ever happened to Scott Ritter?
They did and probably still have WMD's squirreled away. We have found enough evidence.....
Step One: An Accurate Threat Assessment.
Any strategy must begin with an unbiased threat assessment. Misjudging the nature of the threat will lead to strategies that either overreach or underreact.
Iran’s nuclear efforts, despite the progress of the past five years, are still a long way from success, according to U.S. intelligence and most outside experts. The 2005 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran’s nuclear program, according to published accounts of the classified study, projected that Iran is five to 10 years from being able to indigenously produce enough highly enriched uranium (HEU) for a bomb. The timeline represents the consensus judgment of the U.S. intelligence community and is a conservative, worst-case estimate “designed to reflect a program moving full speed ahead without major technical obstacles.”[4]
Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte updated this estimate on Sept. 1, in effect pushing it out another year, when he told National Public Radio, “sometime beginning in the next decade, perhaps out to the middle of the next decade would be a good timeframe. Five to 10 years from now.” If Iran were to experience major technical obstacles, then it could be expected to take even longer. Iran appears to be experiencing just such problems both in it ability to convert uranium ore to uranium gas at Isfahan and in its ability to get its centrifuges to enrich that gas.
Congress has ordered the production of a new NIE on Iran. It must now insist on its delivery as well as the release of an unclassified version of the estimate for public debate. Congress must reassert its constitutional responsibility mandated by House and Senate rules for “comprehensive policy oversight,” especially for this critical national security issue. The NIE and any dissenting views need to be aired, including the likely consequences of beginning a war with Iran
http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2006_11/StopIran.asp
Probably a good stopping point........
To me it looks like: CIA: Shiite DIA: Sunni
The unmasking of covert CIA officer Valerie Plame Wilson by White House officials in 2003 caused significant damage to U.S. national security and its ability to counter nuclear proliferation abroad, RAW STORY has learned.
According to current and former intelligence officials, Plame Wilson, who worked on the clandestine side of the CIA in the Directorate of Operations as a non-official cover (NOC) officer, was part of an operation tracking distribution and acquisition of weapons of mass destruction technology to and from Iran.
http://rawstory.com/news/2005/Outed_CIA_officer_was_working_on_0213.html
Since there is no "firm" or "conclusive" evidence of an Iranian n-bomb program besides the plans we gave them by mistake and the A. Khan network, etc., I've got a plan.
A daring plan.
Since Iran won't let the IAEA do its inspection job, let's embargo or sanction Iran until they agree to inspectors then we can allay all doubts.
by Seymour Hersh....
Not to mention that all Hersh, the CIA or anyone else has to do is listen to the President of Iran to know that they are indeed working on developing nuikes.
The CIA was also caught totally surprised to find out how far Libyan advanced in their development towards a nuclear bomb, when Kaddaffi decided he didn't want to end up like Saddam, and gave it all up, and let us in to verify.
He is NOT. He's just been too busy composing Memos to his lap dog, PC, Idiot Feeb Director Mueller, instructing him to continue sending his Agents to Muzzie Sensitivity Training Classes.
Gonzales, Mueller AND THE WORST PC JERK IN THE ENTIRE BUSH ADMINISRATION, Chertoff, should ALL be fired, but will never happen, no matter how inept they are.
seymour hersch is a hack
The key word is secret....they are doing it in broad daylight!!!
Don't forget that Mike Wallace was there for a week...and he LIKES Ahmanutjob....so, hey, between Wallace and Hersch, I am convinced.
From the same New York Times:
"Intelligence Analyst" Larry C. Johnson: "The Declining Terrorist Threat (July 10, 2001)
Posted on 07/20/2005 10:12:47 PM EDT by Sam Hill
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1447248/posts
I was joking.
I have always had my suspicions.
If we're still finding munition from WW2, god only knows about WMD in Iraq, a country the size of France.
Amazing how this keeps happening!
Just when we start to believe that dictators who openly call for our destruction actually mean it, low and behold--some report comes out about a (always unamed) "government official" who has found that the threat is not true at all, and that our leaders are plotting to harm the harmless.
And always by some embittered, sullen lefty reporter.
Do we see a pattern here?
http://www.dia.mil/publicaffairs/Testimonies/statement25.html
Lieutenant General Michael D. Maples, U.S. Army Director, Defense Intelligence Agency
Statement for the Record
Senate Armed Services Committee
15 November 2006
excerpt:
DIA judges the continued Coalition presence as the primary counter to a breakdown in central authority, which would have grave consequences for the people of Iraq, stability in the region, and U.S. strategic interests. No major political figure in Iraq has endorsed the notion of civil war or partition, and most political and religious leaders continue to restrain their communities. Moreover, DIA judges that Iraqi Arabs retain a strong sense of national identity and that most Iraqis recall a past in which sectarian identity did not have the significance it does today. Although leaders across the political spectrum who are participating in the government continue to talk and search for a positive way forward, the challenges to bringing stability and security with a cohesive, unified, and effective government remain significant.
(does sound as if he's saying everything was under control while Saddam was in power, doesn't it? If sectarian identity was not significant then, who ended up in the mass graves, I wonder?)
I have no problem with them saying this but to state this without also adding "... but we do not have boots on the ground to determine what is being developed in large underground facilities so we simply do not know what Iraq is doing in this regard ...
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