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Allawi apprehensive about new Iraq (a shockingly accurate prediction on Iraq's future)
Washington Post ^ | February 18, 2005 | David Ignatius

Posted on 11/27/2006 3:44:37 AM PST by jmc1969

Edited on 11/27/2006 5:58:34 AM PST by Jim Robinson. [history]

Ayad Allawi says he dreamed for years of two things -- toppling Saddam Hussein and establishing a democracy in Iraq. As an opposition leader and then interim prime minister, he helped achieve both goals. But as he prepares to leave office, Allawi worries that his country remains on the edge of a precipice.


(Excerpt) Read more at signonsandiego.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: allawi; iraq; iraqelection; iraqielection; secular
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This interview was done two years ago when Allawi was leaving office. Its amazing looking back how much he understood exactly what mixing politics and Islam would do to Iraq. Allawi understood that Democracy is a process and needs to be slowly instituted or the religious leaders would simply tell the masses who to vote for and take over, and refuse to allow further elections, kill each other, and turn the country slowly into hell on Earth.
1 posted on 11/27/2006 3:44:40 AM PST by jmc1969
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To: Allegra; Marine_Uncle; Dog; Dog Gone; McGavin999; PGalt; TexKat; Ernest_at_the_Beach; AntiGuv; ...

Ping


2 posted on 11/27/2006 3:48:19 AM PST by jmc1969
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To: jmc1969

"......he believes that his country eventually might turn to him to put things back together."

I hope that happens.


3 posted on 11/27/2006 3:50:07 AM PST by windchime (I consider the left one of the fronts on the WOT.)
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To: windchime

I some way maybe it had it's benefit to have the religious nuts in charge of Iraq that early after the war. Their complete failure disaffected many Iraqis and might turn more of them to the nonsectarian parties alá Allawi.


4 posted on 11/27/2006 3:53:44 AM PST by SolidWood
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To: windchime

I personally believe the best thing for democracy in Iraq long term is a temporary hiatus to stabilize the country and to allow for the building of safe guards to prevent the joining of the mosque and state as we have in Iraq today. Iraq could also badly use a new more US like electoral system.


5 posted on 11/27/2006 3:57:56 AM PST by jmc1969
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To: jmc1969

They need to find some kind of way to get this guy back in the power position. I don't know how, but there has to be a way to get it done within the Iraqi constitution.


6 posted on 11/27/2006 3:58:48 AM PST by McGavin999 (Republicans take out our trash, Democrats re-elect theirs)
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To: jmc1969
Iraq could also badly use a new more US like electoral system.

Boy do I agree with that! The list system that the UN put in place is a total disaster. Direct representation of local people, known and trusted by the people, would be FAR better. Then if things don't work right, they can replace the guy who is the problem instead of going against their own group.

7 posted on 11/27/2006 4:01:21 AM PST by McGavin999 (Republicans take out our trash, Democrats re-elect theirs)
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To: SolidWood

SolidWood, the problem with that is that the US allowed the Iraqi government to control the Iraqi Electoral Process and it allowed them to count the votes by themselves. The IEC was nothing but a Sadr/Hakim controlled farce. The Iraqi people actually were mad at the UIA coming into the December 2005 election.

Because, the US was so afraid of being viewed as rigging the election, we put the election in the hands of people who would rig the election. And, in the second Iraqi election they did rig the vote big time. Omar at ITM covered this quite a bit at the time. There were villages in southern Iraq were Allawi went from 2000 votes to 200 votes. And, there were areas were the UIA pulled more votes then voters regestered.


8 posted on 11/27/2006 4:03:35 AM PST by jmc1969
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To: McGavin999

The elections also must watched closely and done differently, the December 2005 election from what I have seen had far far too much fraud in it.

The UN refused to oversee the election and the US was scared to be accused to influencing the election or it being seen as illegitimate.

Next time the UN and the US must oversee closely the election.


9 posted on 11/27/2006 4:06:43 AM PST by jmc1969
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To: McGavin999

The US can proform a parlimentary coup. Sadr's 30 members of Parliment are all death squad commanders with US and Iraqi blood on their hands.

Arrest them all and the government collapses in which case we place Allawi in charge (or have those left in parliment vote for an emergency government) an have Allawi reign until the situation is stabilized (and the militias are gone) so that new elections can be held.


10 posted on 11/27/2006 4:10:03 AM PST by jmc1969
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To: jmc1969

Muslims seem incapable of anything but mindless barbarian butchery.


11 posted on 11/27/2006 4:12:43 AM PST by tkathy (The choice is clear: White hat people or white flag people.)
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To: jmc1969

Personally, I think the US should do an ad blitz in Iraq and simply say that they have a choice. Either stand together as Iraqis - Shiite, Sunni and Kurd - and say no more to the killing and build a new country together with our help or we will leave and you can continue killing each other until the country is completely destroyed and your thirst for blood is satisfied. Your choice. You have 1 month to decide.


12 posted on 11/27/2006 4:15:19 AM PST by DB
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To: tkathy

Not true, the problem is the muslim masses are controlled in no small part though the mosque, they aren't ready for democracy, especially PR list democracy, but that doesn't mean they are all mindless killers.


13 posted on 11/27/2006 4:15:47 AM PST by jmc1969
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To: jmc1969

Hmmm, I don't know how much good the UN will be, but I agree, it should be monitored by outsiders but who could you conceivably trust?


14 posted on 11/27/2006 4:25:04 AM PST by McGavin999 (Republicans take out our trash, Democrats re-elect theirs)
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To: DB

The Madhi Army is not going to stop killing neither are the Badr, the Iranians, or al-Qaeda.

We need a strong government in Baghdad willing to kill these people.

That is the only way peace can come to Iraq.


15 posted on 11/27/2006 4:25:39 AM PST by jmc1969
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To: McGavin999

We can figure that one out later. First things first, bringing down this government if Maliki doesn't act immediately and massively after meeting Bush in Jordan.


16 posted on 11/27/2006 4:26:59 AM PST by jmc1969
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To: jmc1969

If the Iraqis themselves won't stand together to stop the killing, no one else can and it isn't worth another American life. The Iraqis are going to have to grow up and make a choice.


17 posted on 11/27/2006 4:30:58 AM PST by DB
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To: jmc1969
I agree there. I think that's why Maliki is trying to circumvent by quickly putting a bandaid on things the last couple of days. I don't think it's going to be enough.

It's going to be interesting to see what happens as a result of Jordan.

18 posted on 11/27/2006 4:32:05 AM PST by McGavin999 (Republicans take out our trash, Democrats re-elect theirs)
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To: jmc1969

Here's your answer.

CNN Headline:

"Authorities lifted a three-day curfew in Iraq's capital and reopened the international airport today, clearing the way for President Jalal Talabani to make an official visit to Iran. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad says Iran is "ready to help" calm Iraq's fighting."

The sheep goes to the wolf to make a deal on the slaughtering of the sheep. The wolf couldn't have dreamed of a better outcome.


19 posted on 11/27/2006 4:36:11 AM PST by DB
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To: DB

DB, you don't really understand the situation has little to do with what the Iraqi people want, and please don't talk in generalities like the media would like you to do.

The Iraqi people by in large want to live in peace and quiet, but militias being funded by Iran, Syria, and elsewhere are causing mahem in the country. 98% of the Iraqi public hate al-Qaeda. That doesn't stop them from holding parts of Anbar and killing thousands in Iraq.


20 posted on 11/27/2006 4:37:15 AM PST by jmc1969
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To: DB

I like your idea. I don't think the killing is going to stop until one side is defeated. Right now, the Sunnis and the Shiites are settling scores and it will continue until one side gives up.


21 posted on 11/27/2006 4:37:30 AM PST by caver (Yes, I did crawl out of a hole in the ground.)
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To: McGavin999

As long as Maliki refuses to use the Iraqi Army with US help to stop the killings the situation is going to keep going downhill until the point where even a change of government can't stop it as the Iraqi Army itself breaks apart.

My great fear is that President Bush will hold onto his hopes that the Maliki government (if you want to call it that) will finally do something and by the time he figures out it isn't going to happen, its too late and no change will matter anymore.


22 posted on 11/27/2006 4:40:49 AM PST by jmc1969
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To: caver

No,

you don't get it, trust me when I say its still pretty much only the Militias like the Madhi Army involved in the killing. When the Iraqi people really get into it (which would mean a real civil war) if they ever do I will be the first to tell you.


23 posted on 11/27/2006 4:42:37 AM PST by jmc1969
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To: jmc1969
I found this posted on another blog. Doubt the accuracy, but thought I'd pass it along to show what is out there:

Bush Secret Plan for Iraq

It starts with freeing Tariq Aziz, Saddam's Deputy Minister

Here is the plan, paraphrased briefly, as proposed by the source who serves as an authorized back-channel link to the insurgent groups:

Leaders of the organized Sunni resistance groups are seeking immediate meetings with top American generals towards the goal of a cease-fire. Meetings with lower-level US officials already have occurred.

The resistance groups reject the ability of the al-Maliki government to unify its government, and therefore wants an interim government imposed before new elections can be held. The former Baathist-dominated national army, intelligence services and police, whose leaders currently are heading the underground resistance, would be rehired, restored and re-integrated into national structures under this plan.

Multinational Force [MNF-I] activities aimed at controlling militias to be expanded.

The US-controlled Multi-National Force [MNF-I] would be redeployed to control the eastern border with Iran.

A Status of Forces agreement would be negotiated immediately permitting the presence of American troops in Iraq for as long as ten years. Troop reductions and redeployments would be permitted over time.

Amnesty and prisoner releases would be negotiated between the parties, with the Americans guaranteeing the end of torture of those held in the detention centers and prisons of the current, Shiite-controlled Iraqi state.

De-Baathification edicts issued by Paul Bremer would be rescinded, allowing tens of thousands of former Baathists to resume military and professional service.

An American commitment to financing reconstruction would be continued, and the new Iraqi regime would guarantee incentives for private American companies to participate in the rebuilding effort.

24 posted on 11/27/2006 5:02:50 AM PST by SC DOC
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To: jmc1969
I think he already knows. Remember, he just had Abazaid in Washington for a talk and Abazaid went right to Iraq afterwards for a talk with Maliki.

Malike is not cut out to handle the reins of power, especially not in this situation.

25 posted on 11/27/2006 5:04:56 AM PST by McGavin999 (Republicans take out our trash, Democrats re-elect theirs)
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To: jmc1969; All
Excepting the civilized Kurds residing mostly in the north if Iraq, the "sand savages" are deeply rooted in the 7th century and simply NOT ready to live in the here and now of THIS century, culturally, religiously, socially and certainly not politically.

Those poor sincere people who proudly displayed their ink stained voting fingers have been the victims of backward children in adult bodies toying with 20th century weapons who do not understand even the most basic concept of democracy or civility. They are tribal and politically (and most likely genetically)inbred; defaulting to the self destructive position at every turn.

My answer? Divide the "nation" with the U.S.Military repositioning to the north into a civilized, friendly and politically progressive Kurdistan, and nation build the crap out of it as a shining example of what might have been achieved with better quality Iraqi protoplasm.

The Azeris of Iran would take note and THAT would be a migraine for downtown Mullaville in Iran.
26 posted on 11/27/2006 5:08:29 AM PST by Gideon Reader ("The quiet gentleman sitting in the corner sipping Kenya AA and enjoying his Stan Getz CD's".)
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To: McGavin999

Maliki was Sadr's second choice after Jaafari. Both men were extremely weak and easy to push around, they always said the right things, but never had action to back up their words.

Did you know that Maliki opposed in 2003 the US overthrow of Saddam, because he abhors violence and that this summer he stopped a US-Iraqi Army assault on Ar-Ramadi because it would involve too much killing?


27 posted on 11/27/2006 5:09:51 AM PST by jmc1969
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To: Gideon Reader

You don't have a good grap on history in Iraq.

After being freed from Saddam in 1991 the Kurds butchered each other for years in a terrible civil war. But, they had to with US help learn how to work out their differences peacefully not in the old way. All of this took a decade.


28 posted on 11/27/2006 5:12:18 AM PST by jmc1969
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To: jmc1969

.......in a land of conniving politicians.....

That is having a large Blue Zone.


29 posted on 11/27/2006 5:14:58 AM PST by bert (K.E. N.P. Rozerem commercials give me nightmares)
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To: jmc1969
You're right. The problem, as I see it, is that Muslim culture just does not accept the idea of a government independent of religion (Islam) and Islam is based on the idea of a totalitarian caliph who rules everything to the smallest detail. Hence, when Muslims are allowed to vote, they vote Islamic, as they did a few years ago in Algeria, and enthusiastically run right back into the very prison from which they have just been released. Thus, as long as Islam is essentially the state religion of any country, the idea of even evolving to a western style of democracy can be kissed goodbye.

The only thing that seems reasonably well to work in such an environment is a somewhat benevolent dictator, like the former Shah of Iran. Such an individual can do the wet work we are loathe to do by ourselves and can often be a reliable ally, provide we are willing to support him, something Carter definintdely did not do with the Shah. Then, over time, it's possible such a society could evolve into a democratic one.

The problem, of course, is well illustrated by what happened in Iran. The mullahs were infuriated by the Shah's reforms that were directed to moving Iran at least into the nineteenth century, took skillful advantage of Carter's perverse and self-destructive fascination with "human rights," overthrew the Shah, and imposed a retrograde regime that has no respect for human rights at all.

Above all, we must not be squeamish about what a leader we install in an Islamic country needs to do to bring order and we must support him. The alternative is always someone who is far worse.
30 posted on 11/27/2006 5:17:03 AM PST by libstripper (!!)
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To: jmc1969
...what mixing politics and Islam would do to Iraq.

islam is a political movement, not a religion, who's goal is to control the world using any and all evil means. As such, it cannot co-exist with democracy.

31 posted on 11/27/2006 5:20:13 AM PST by newfreep
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To: newfreep

OT: how does one add a "tagline"?


32 posted on 11/27/2006 5:23:48 AM PST by newfreep
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To: jmc1969

I don't disagree with you, but aren't the militias backed by the public and doing the deeds that the people would like to see done?
How much percentage of the population belong to the militias?


33 posted on 11/27/2006 5:25:32 AM PST by caver (Yes, I did crawl out of a hole in the ground.)
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To: libstripper

Democracy is the goal we still should be after, but we need to take it very slow with democratic reforms and we also need to be aware from now on that having elections before a country is ready is a very bad idea.


34 posted on 11/27/2006 5:26:43 AM PST by jmc1969
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To: jmc1969

I've been away for two weeks, without phone, internet, newsapers or TV. I decided to do a little experiment. I bought myself a little transistor radio and only listened to the news for 15 minutes a day on a CBS affiliated Radio station. This is what I learned: Every day hundreds of people are being killed in Iraq in Bush's broken war (their words) and every day Iraq is slipping aninevitable civil war. EVERY DAY this is what I heard. This is the first time I I've been on the internet (check email yesterday) So now I'll find out what's really going on.

But let me tell you, if all I listened to were headlines from msm news outlets, I'd hate Bush too. I'd hate him with a vengeance and I'd certainly hate this war.


35 posted on 11/27/2006 5:28:23 AM PST by Hildy (RUDY GUILIANI FOR PRESIDENT IN 2008)
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To: caver

The average Iraqi hates the militias and would like security resorted by a national Army and police force. However, they also fear that if there local militia just went away that they would just end up being butchered by a rival militias. That is why the government needs to be evenhanded going after them.

All the militias combined (not counting the Peshmerga) as well as the insurgency are probably no more then 100,000 men.


36 posted on 11/27/2006 5:29:33 AM PST by jmc1969
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To: jmc1969

OK, thanks for the info. I'm just hopelessly uninformed.


37 posted on 11/27/2006 5:34:40 AM PST by caver (Yes, I did crawl out of a hole in the ground.)
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To: jmc1969; All

My grip on Iraqi history is firmly rooted in reality and the present.
The Kurds are doing very well and seem to be building a nation where their fellow Iraquis seem to be destroying even the possibility of a nation.

The contrast is startling the Sunnis and the Shiites are grinding underfoot the opportunity to have a future a la the cantonments of the Swiss(not that Iraq is EVER going to be Switzerland)or a cohesive single nation.

While they are doing this the Kurds embrace freedom and build, build, build.

Am I wrong, or did I miss something?


38 posted on 11/27/2006 5:36:34 AM PST by Gideon Reader ("The quiet gentleman sitting in the corner sipping Kenya AA and enjoying his Stan Getz CD's".)
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To: Gideon Reader

The Kurds didn't immediately embrace freedom, after they first were free of Saddam they killed each other by the tens of thousands for years.


39 posted on 11/27/2006 5:41:55 AM PST by jmc1969
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To: newfreep

http://i10.tinypic.com/2cg0ebk.jpg

When you reply to a post.
Right below the "your reply" entry field
is the "tagline" field


40 posted on 11/27/2006 5:43:40 AM PST by kanawa (Don't go where you're looking, look where you're going.)
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To: kanawa

Thanks - does this tagline appear automatically with each post I do?


41 posted on 11/27/2006 5:47:07 AM PST by newfreep (islam is a political movement, not a religion, who's goal is to control the world using any and all)
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To: newfreep


42 posted on 11/27/2006 5:48:21 AM PST by newfreep (islam is a pure evil political movement, not a religion, whose goal is to control the world.)
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To: jmc1969

Read what you wrote.
After they were free of Saddam they killed each other by the tens of thousands for years.
Huh?
Whatever. ;~)


43 posted on 11/27/2006 5:56:32 AM PST by Gideon Reader ("The quiet gentleman sitting in the corner sipping Kenya AA and enjoying his Stan Getz CD's".)
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To: Gideon Reader

You might not know this, but the Kurds were freed from Saddam after the 1991 Gulf War.

After they were freed they fought bitterly for years.


44 posted on 11/27/2006 6:02:22 AM PST by jmc1969
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To: newfreep
Thanks - does this tagline appear automatically with each post I do?

Yep, the site software remembers it and automatically puts it in the tagline box.
You can erase it or change it before posting.

45 posted on 11/27/2006 6:16:54 AM PST by kanawa (Don't go where you're looking, look where you're going.)
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To: jmc1969
The Madhi Army is not going to stop killing neither are the Badr, the Iranians, or al-Qaeda.

You are definitely correct in that. May God soon shine his love and mercy on Iraq and the innocent Iraqi people.

46 posted on 11/27/2006 6:19:27 AM PST by TexKat (Just because you did not see it or read it, that does not mean it did or did not happen.)
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To: Gideon Reader

There are two Kurdish factions. They fought bitterly until just before the US went into Iraq. They were also protected for 10 years by the no-fly zones and had US advisors who helped them to build a democracy.


47 posted on 11/27/2006 6:29:10 AM PST by McGavin999 (Republicans take out our trash, Democrats re-elect theirs)
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To: jmc1969
You might not know this but the "no fly" zone prevented the Iraqi air force from attacking them from the air. However, they were continually beleagured by armor and infantry and other small unit actions hostile to them, after G.H.W.Bush and certainly Clinton's Nazi General Shalishkalvilli essentially abandoned them, in the pullout AFTER the Desert Storm punch up.

I perceive that you have a problem with the Kurds, and that is OK too, but they need to receive all the encouragement they can to do what the remainder of the corrupt sects of Iraq refuse to do.

The best to you each morning, or something. :~)
48 posted on 11/27/2006 6:35:50 AM PST by Gideon Reader ("The quiet gentleman sitting in the corner sipping Kenya AA and enjoying his Stan Getz CD's".)
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To: newfreep


49 posted on 11/27/2006 6:35:55 AM PST by newfreep (islam is a political movement - vaporize mecca to destroy their source of "inspiration".)
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To: Gideon Reader

I have no problem with the Kurds.

I am just telling you that the Kurds went through a very violent period after being freed from Saddam's yoke after the first Gulf War and it took many years for them to learn to work together to build a better future for their people.

The rest of Iraq is going through the same thing.


50 posted on 11/27/2006 6:41:14 AM PST by jmc1969
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