Skip to comments.Quiet Hurricane Season Raises Questions About Global Warming Forecasts
Posted on 11/30/2006 10:27:05 PM PST by george76
As a largely inactive 2006 hurricane season came to an official end Thursday, predictions that temperature increases in the earth's atmosphere and oceans would lead to more intense hurricanes are facing scrutiny from some "global warming" skeptics.
Climatologists last May predicted that the 2006 hurricane season would be more intense than last year's season, which brought destruction to the Gulf Coast in Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.
But the 2006 season brought fewer hurricanes than predicted, and none of the hurricanes made landfall. Experts attribute this to the unexpected early formation of El Nino, a periodic warming of tropical Pacific Ocean waters.
According to Gerry Bell, a hurricane forecaster with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), El Nino produces a "sinking motion" and increased wind shear in the Atlantic atmosphere, both of which kill hurricanes.
In a September 2005 speech, former Vice President Al Gore warned that "the average hurricane will continue to get stronger because of global warming" as "unusually warm waters" create "much stronger" hurricanes.
But Gore has also linked global warming to El Nino - which according to Bell, may actually have the effect of killing hurricanes.
In November 1997, Gore was quoted as suggesting that rising temperatures might be leading to more frequent and powerful El Nino systems.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnsnews.com ...
Who's Al Gore?
Nothing to see here....
ht : ChildOfThe60s
Those who scream about global warming today,30 years ago said there was going to be global cooling.Weather goes through cycles and trying to predict it is an impossiblity.
Am I the only one who sees some wisdom in it's forecast? Oh, to get back to a simpler life!
Wake up to rain or snow...we deal with it. Hot, sunny morning? Head for a lake, pool or the ocean if you're free.
As to hurricanes, tornadoes and tsunamis, I welcome any warnings from the modern meteorologists. Half the time they're wrong but I'll take their heads-up on any one these monsters.
These jokers can't predict next week's weather, and have here demonstrated that their forecast a few months ahead is unreliable, but they seriously argue for public policy changes costing trillions on the basis of their weather forecasts extending out for decades. What bunk!
when the best technology of the day cannot predict the weather seven days hence, one wonders what kind of fool beleives that we can predict the weather 50-60 YEARS into the future.
As the 2006 hurricane fiasco illustrates.
One wonders at what kind of morons beleive this junk anymore.
'Questions about global warming'
(in the voice of Vincini (sp) from 'the Princess Bride')
YOU'D LIKE TO BELIEVE THAT, wouldn't you!
HOWEVER, I heard on the radio yesterday that the lack of hurricanes (estimates downgraded twice, and even then were too high) this year can be blamed on El Nino.
And what is El Nino? A pattern of WARM air, yes? YES.
Therefore, our LACK of hurricanes (which are all caused by global warming), was caused by an unusual pattern of warming.
So there you have it. There is no doubt. Global Warming Forever.
Anything else is inconceivable!
Al Gore can't get nature to do as he wants, so he just changes what he says to fit a new scenario. He lives his days in fantasy and too many people are just as clueless as him.
You joke, but WFLA-AM in Tampa was running a piece from an NWS guy yesterday basically saying that 2007 could be the worst season ever. Right after saying they blew the 2006 predictions.
Gotta get those research grants ya' know.
If the experts can't predict El Nino from month to month, why should we believe their predictions of global warming looking decades into the future?
Jean Dixon syndrome. You only have to be lucky once every thirty years. If you get one right, you're set for life.
Nor can man chart the stars in course through the heavens. (Newton actually thought that God needed to intervene occasionally to keep the Solar System stable.)
There are limits on what is knowable. Legitimate scientists always emphasize the bounds on what is known and knowable. The problem is dilettantes, poseurs, careerists and charlatans who exploit an issue for personal reasons.
Gotta give Al Gore credit though; he exhibits absolutely no fear of being branded a dilettante.
Jean Dixon syndrome. You only have to be lucky once every thirty years...
See http://skepdic.com/dixon.html for more on what is more formally known as the "Jeane Dixon effect".