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Quiet Hurricane Season Raises Questions About Global Warming Forecasts
CNSNews ^ | November 30, 2006 | Nathan Burchfiel

Posted on 11/30/2006 10:27:05 PM PST by george76

As a largely inactive 2006 hurricane season came to an official end Thursday, predictions that temperature increases in the earth's atmosphere and oceans would lead to more intense hurricanes are facing scrutiny from some "global warming" skeptics.

Climatologists last May predicted that the 2006 hurricane season would be more intense than last year's season, which brought destruction to the Gulf Coast in Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

But the 2006 season brought fewer hurricanes than predicted, and none of the hurricanes made landfall. Experts attribute this to the unexpected early formation of El Nino, a periodic warming of tropical Pacific Ocean waters.

According to Gerry Bell, a hurricane forecaster with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), El Nino produces a "sinking motion" and increased wind shear in the Atlantic atmosphere, both of which kill hurricanes.

In a September 2005 speech, former Vice President Al Gore warned that "the average hurricane will continue to get stronger because of global warming" as "unusually warm waters" create "much stronger" hurricanes.

But Gore has also linked global warming to El Nino - which according to Bell, may actually have the effect of killing hurricanes.

In November 1997, Gore was quoted as suggesting that rising temperatures might be leading to more frequent and powerful El Nino systems.

(Excerpt) Read more at cnsnews.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; Miscellaneous
KEYWORDS: climatechange; global; globalwarming; humor; hurricanes; manbearpig; warming; weather
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Whatever happens : Al Gore says that we are all doomed !

/s

1 posted on 11/30/2006 10:27:07 PM PST by george76
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To: george76

Who's Al Gore?


2 posted on 11/30/2006 10:35:16 PM PST by Graybeard58 (Remember and pray for SSgt. Matt Maupin - MIA/POW- Iraq since 04/09/04)
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To: george76

Nothing to see here....

Move along...


3 posted on 11/30/2006 10:36:49 PM PST by ButThreeLeftsDo (Send Lawyers, Guns And Money *Not Necessarily In That Order*)
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To: george76

BTTT


4 posted on 11/30/2006 10:38:41 PM PST by LowOiL ("I am neither . I am a Christocrat" - Benjamin Rush)
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To: Graybeard58; ChildOfThe60s

ht : ChildOfThe60s


5 posted on 11/30/2006 10:42:01 PM PST by george76 (Ward Churchill : Fake Indian, Fake Scholarship, and Fake Art)
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To: george76
Just wait 'til next year!/sarc
6 posted on 11/30/2006 10:55:14 PM PST by raftguide
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To: george76

Those who scream about global warming today,30 years ago said there was going to be global cooling.Weather goes through cycles and trying to predict it is an impossiblity.


7 posted on 11/30/2006 11:02:02 PM PST by screaming eagle2 (No matter what you call it,a pre-owned vehicle is still a USED CAR!)
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To: george76
Serpent River Weather Station

Am I the only one who sees some wisdom in it's forecast? Oh, to get back to a simpler life!

Wake up to rain or snow...we deal with it. Hot, sunny morning? Head for a lake, pool or the ocean if you're free.

As to hurricanes, tornadoes and tsunamis, I welcome any warnings from the modern meteorologists. Half the time they're wrong but I'll take their heads-up on any one these monsters.

8 posted on 11/30/2006 11:07:02 PM PST by IIntense
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To: Graybeard58
Al Gore should visit the industrial centers of China to see the mess over there. But no, he wold give them a pass and insist that America hamstring its fading industry with useless regulation.
9 posted on 11/30/2006 11:30:23 PM PST by oyez (Why is it that egalitarians act like royalty?)
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To: nutmeg

BTTT


10 posted on 11/30/2006 11:31:00 PM PST by nutmeg (In 2008 we will crush the Democrats like the cockroaches they are! -- Mark Levin 11-8-06)
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To: george76

These jokers can't predict next week's weather, and have here demonstrated that their forecast a few months ahead is unreliable, but they seriously argue for public policy changes costing trillions on the basis of their weather forecasts extending out for decades. What bunk!


11 posted on 12/01/2006 12:20:44 AM PST by Blue_Ridge_Mtn_Geek
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To: george76

when the best technology of the day cannot predict the weather seven days hence, one wonders what kind of fool beleives that we can predict the weather 50-60 YEARS into the future.

As the 2006 hurricane fiasco illustrates.

One wonders at what kind of morons beleive this junk anymore.


12 posted on 12/01/2006 3:34:04 AM PST by camle (keep your mind open and somebody will fill it full of something for you)
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To: george76

'Questions about global warming'

(in the voice of Vincini (sp) from 'the Princess Bride')

YOU'D LIKE TO BELIEVE THAT, wouldn't you!

HOWEVER, I heard on the radio yesterday that the lack of hurricanes (estimates downgraded twice, and even then were too high) this year can be blamed on El Nino.

And what is El Nino? A pattern of WARM air, yes? YES.

Therefore, our LACK of hurricanes (which are all caused by global warming), was caused by an unusual pattern of warming.

So there you have it. There is no doubt. Global Warming Forever.

Anything else is… inconceivable!

= P


13 posted on 12/01/2006 4:11:39 AM PST by Mr. Thorne ("But iron, cold iron, shall be master of them all..." Kipling)
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To: george76

Al Gore can't get nature to do as he wants, so he just changes what he says to fit a new scenario. He lives his days in fantasy and too many people are just as clueless as him.


14 posted on 12/01/2006 4:23:17 AM PST by dforest (Don't get fooled, the bigger struggle is still out there, and growing)
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To: raftguide
Just wait 'til next year!/sarc

You joke, but WFLA-AM in Tampa was running a piece from an NWS guy yesterday basically saying that 2007 could be the worst season ever. Right after saying they blew the 2006 predictions.

Gotta get those research grants ya' know.

15 posted on 12/01/2006 4:33:23 AM PST by PogySailor (Media bias? What media bias)
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To: george76
Experts attribute this to the unexpected early formation of El Nino, a periodic warming of tropical Pacific Ocean waters.

If the experts can't predict El Nino from month to month, why should we believe their predictions of global warming looking decades into the future?

16 posted on 12/01/2006 4:43:09 AM PST by Labyrinthos
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To: george76
Climatologists last May predicted that the 2006 hurricane season would be more intense than last year's season

Jean Dixon syndrome. You only have to be lucky once every thirty years. If you get one right, you're set for life.

17 posted on 12/01/2006 4:43:57 AM PST by Lonesome in Massachussets (The hallmark of a crackpot conspiracy theory is that it expands to include countervailing evidence.)
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To: screaming eagle2
Weather goes through cycles and trying to predict it is an impossiblity.

Nor can man chart the stars in course through the heavens. (Newton actually thought that God needed to intervene occasionally to keep the Solar System stable.)

There are limits on what is knowable. Legitimate scientists always emphasize the bounds on what is known and knowable. The problem is dilettantes, poseurs, careerists and charlatans who exploit an issue for personal reasons.

Gotta give Al Gore credit though; he exhibits absolutely no fear of being branded a dilettante.

18 posted on 12/01/2006 5:03:52 AM PST by Lonesome in Massachussets (The hallmark of a crackpot conspiracy theory is that it expands to include countervailing evidence.)
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To: Lonesome in Massachussets

Jean Dixon syndrome. You only have to be lucky once every thirty years...

bump


19 posted on 12/01/2006 6:33:06 AM PST by george76 (Ward Churchill : Fake Indian, Fake Scholarship, and Fake Art)
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To: george76

See http://skepdic.com/dixon.html for more on what is more formally known as the "Jeane Dixon effect".


20 posted on 12/01/2006 6:39:11 AM PST by Lonesome in Massachussets (The hallmark of a crackpot conspiracy theory is that it expands to include countervailing evidence.)
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To: Blue_Ridge_Mtn_Geek

It is total bunk.

They likely have an angle to make lots of money for themselves.


21 posted on 12/01/2006 6:53:17 AM PST by george76 (Ward Churchill : Fake Indian, Fake Scholarship, and Fake Art)
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To: george76
Remember when Rush regularly played a tape on his show to the tune of a ponderous Russian dirge? It was his "Gorbasm" tape aimed at those American sheeple (particularly liberal women) who had orgasms of ecstasy merely at the mention of the name of the charismatic communist, Mikhail Sergeyevich Gorbachev.

Memo to Rush: Millions of American sheeple (particularly liberal women) today have orgasms of ecstasy merely at the mention of the name of the non-charismatic socialist, AlGore.

It's time for a new Gorebasm tape, Rush. Set it to the tune of "Where Have All the Flowers Gone?"

Rush has been way too light on the parody tapes for a couple years, and I can't think of a better dirge for him to get back in the groove.

Leni

22 posted on 12/01/2006 7:05:57 AM PST by MinuteGal (The Left takes power only through deception. Let's always use his full name: Barack Hussein Obama)
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To: PogySailor
I heard that also, and almost choked from guffawing.

Leni

23 posted on 12/01/2006 7:07:51 AM PST by MinuteGal (The Left takes power only through deception. Let's always use his full name: Barack Hussein Obama)
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To: MinuteGal

Yes...

" It's time for a new Gorebasm tape..."


24 posted on 12/01/2006 7:08:09 AM PST by george76 (Ward Churchill : Fake Indian, Fake Scholarship, and Fake Art)
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To: camle
when the best technology of the day cannot predict the weather seven days hence, one wonders what kind of fool beleives that we can predict the weather 50-60 YEARS into the future.

Saying that we can't make climate predictions because we don't know what the weather will be next week makes no more sense than saying we can't make long-term market predictions because we don't know where the Dow will close next week.

Climate is not weather. There are good arguments against the global warming hysteria, but this isn't one of them. I wish that people would stop using it--it's counterproductive.

25 posted on 12/01/2006 7:14:03 AM PST by NonZeroSum
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To: NonZeroSum

has ANY Long range climate prediction ever been accurate?


26 posted on 12/01/2006 7:16:22 AM PST by camle (keep your mind open and somebody will fill it full of something for you)
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To: george76
But the 2006 season brought fewer hurricanes than predicted, and
none of the hurricanes made landfall. Experts attribute this
to the unexpected early formation of El Nino, a periodic warming
of tropical Pacific Ocean waters.


Talk about "compounding errors".
Even the public religion that equates the arrival of El Nino with
heavy rainfall in California is probably faulty.

How do I know?
The Los Angeles Times printed a dual bar graph of "El Nino" activity
and rainfall in Los Angeles for each year back into the late 1800s.

As far as I could tell there was really very weak correlation:
Some years with high El Nino had average or low rainfall,
some years with little El Nino had plenty.

I mailed the graph to my electrical engineer cousin (as he knows
something about "signal/noise" ratio).
He said "if there is any correlation, it ain't in that graph".

In fairness, if there was any discernable pattern, it may have been
that there be a modest increase in rainfall in the year AFTER
high El Nino activity.
27 posted on 12/01/2006 7:18:19 AM PST by VOA
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To: george76
Let's see if I get this straight, "global warming makes for stronger hurricanes and stronger El Nino. Stronger El Nino kills hurricanes".

Pow! Right to the kisser, take that algore!
Global warming is GOOD!
28 posted on 12/01/2006 7:22:05 AM PST by Ditter
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To: camle

It depends on how long range you mean. We certainly have no experience with making long-range predictions on the order of decades, because it's only in the last few years that we've had computers powerful enough to even attempt it.

In any event, I'm not claiming that long-range predictions are accurate. I'm saying that the fact that we can't predict weather is irrelevant. Weather is a discrete event. Climate is an average.


29 posted on 12/01/2006 7:24:35 AM PST by NonZeroSum
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To: george76
It simply shows the uncertainty inherent in applying short-term data trends to a phenomenon that has an inherently long "time constant". Data covering a couple of years is literally the blink of an eye compared to the climatological history of the planet.

I recall a long time ago my professor in statistical mechanics used to have an "unofficial" law of stat-mech: large deviations in one direction are ultimately compensated by similar deviations in the other direction. We had an active year and a quiet year. That's all we can conclude on the basis of that data.

30 posted on 12/01/2006 7:24:40 AM PST by chimera
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To: Ditter

That is the beauty of their logic.

They can never be "wrong."



"global warming makes for stronger hurricanes and stronger El Nino.

Stronger El Nino kills hurricanes".


31 posted on 12/01/2006 7:24:48 AM PST by george76 (Ward Churchill : Fake Indian, Fake Scholarship, and Fake Art)
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To: george76
Experts attribute this to the unexpected early formation of El Nino, a periodic warming of tropical Pacific Ocean waters.

See? It just proves it.

32 posted on 12/01/2006 7:25:27 AM PST by ichabod1 (After the attacks of 9/11, profiling Muslims is more like profiling the Klan.)
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To: Blue_Ridge_Mtn_Geek
These jokers can't predict next week's weather, and have here demonstrated that their forecast a few months ahead is unreliable,

No kidding. I still chuckle to myself when I think of a local weatherman on the 11pm news who started his segment this way a few years ago:

"I was all set to bring you the current weather conditions based on excellent technical data from the latest high tech instruments ... and I was going to tell you that there was only a 5-10% chance of rain tonight in the county. But, just before I went on the air, one of my producers whispered in my earpiece that I might want to open the back door to the station before I hit the air with my weather info. So, I opened the door and discovered what most of you already know ... it's pouring rain out there."

It was too funny.

33 posted on 12/01/2006 7:32:58 AM PST by RightField
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To: NonZeroSum
Saying that we can't make climate predictions because we don't know what the weather will be next week makes no more sense than saying we can't make long-term market predictions because we don't know where the Dow will close next week.

Hmmm, has anyone ever made any accurate longterm market predictions? Maybe Warren Buffet, but as he readily admits he is more often wrong than he is correct. Your premise that anyone can make accurate longterm market projections is incorrect.

Climate is not weather. There are good arguments against the global warming hysteria, but this isn't one of them. I wish that people would stop using it--it's counterproductive.

The average daily temperature is both climate and weather. The climate is a derivative of the weather. Theoretically if you know all the variables and how they interact, you should be able to predict both the weather and the climate (climates are just as variable as the weather over a longer period).

34 posted on 12/01/2006 7:44:41 AM PST by LeGrande
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To: george76

Great picture!


35 posted on 12/01/2006 7:49:49 AM PST by avacado
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To: LeGrande
Hmmm, has anyone ever made any accurate longterm market predictions?

Sure. Anyone who says that the long-term trend of the market is up is making an accurate long-term market prediction, and it's not one that depends on knowing what the market will do on any particular day, or week.

The average daily temperature is both climate and weather. The climate is a derivative of the weather.

No. Climate models are not based on weather models, or derived from weather models. They don't attempt to make predictions of the temperature, humidity or winds on a daily basis, and then take a long-term average of them. They are much more coarse than that.

36 posted on 12/01/2006 7:52:44 AM PST by NonZeroSum
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To: indylindy

In a now common pattern, Al Gore was on the Tonight Show on Weds. night. The Tonight Show is filmed in LA. Leno has been making jokes all week about how cold it has been in LA this week. It would seem if we want to stop GW then we should just keep Al moving around the globe cooling off hot spots.


37 posted on 12/01/2006 7:53:28 AM PST by redangus
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To: DaveLoneRanger

ping


38 posted on 12/01/2006 8:09:09 AM PST by bkwells (Liberals=Hypocrites)
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To: redangus

Well, he sure causes a cold spot in my mind. In my state today with wind gusts up to 50mph and dropping temps, I would have to laugh Al right out of his chair!


39 posted on 12/01/2006 8:23:50 AM PST by dforest (Don't get fooled, the bigger struggle is still out there, and growing)
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To: indylindy

I beleive we are both from the fine State of Indiana and yes Global Warming seems like a fond dream in Indianapolis today.


40 posted on 12/01/2006 8:37:36 AM PST by redangus
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To: Graybeard58
Isn't he the slack jaw who invented the Internet?
41 posted on 12/01/2006 8:37:53 AM PST by PEACE ENFORCER (Liberals; People That Are Only Alive Because It's Illegal To SHOOT Them!)
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To: george76

AlbertArnoldAlgore, Jr. is deeply saddened.


42 posted on 12/01/2006 8:40:44 AM PST by Polyxene (For where God built a church, there the Devil would also build a chapel - Martin Luther)
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To: redangus

My eyebrows almost blew off taking in my trash cans. I guess the warming we enjoyed is officially over!


43 posted on 12/01/2006 8:46:48 AM PST by dforest (Don't get fooled, the bigger struggle is still out there, and growing)
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To: oyez
"Al Gore should visit the industrial centers of China to see the mess over there. But no, he wold give them a pass..."

Algore invented 'no controlling legal authority.'

44 posted on 12/01/2006 8:49:31 AM PST by Joe 6-pack (Voted Free Republic's Most Eligible Bachelor: 2006. Love them Diebold machines.)
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To: george76
Remember the weather reports on WKRP in Cincinnati (I think that was the program)? I think it was Les would look out the window and give his report on the weather.
45 posted on 12/01/2006 9:06:00 AM PST by ChildOfThe60s (If you can remember the 60s...you weren't really there.)
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To: george76
But Gore has also linked global warming to El Nino - which according to Bell, may actually have the effect of killing hurricanes.

Another "inconvenient truth" for Al.

46 posted on 12/01/2006 9:11:25 AM PST by colorado tanker
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To: george76

It's time to dust off those dire predictions of global cooling and nuclear winter that were so popular among the doom and gloom crowd 30 years ago.


47 posted on 12/01/2006 9:14:37 AM PST by The Great RJ ("Mir we bleiwen wat mir sin" or "We want to remain what we are." ..Luxembourg motto)
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To: Polyxene


48 posted on 12/01/2006 9:16:00 AM PST by george76 (Ward Churchill : Fake Indian, Fake Scholarship, and Fake Art)
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To: ChildOfThe60s

" look out the window and give his report on the weather..."

Excellent plan !


49 posted on 12/01/2006 9:16:56 AM PST by george76 (Ward Churchill : Fake Indian, Fake Scholarship, and Fake Art)
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To: camle
when the best technology of the day cannot predict the weather seven days hence, one wonders what kind of fool beleives that we can predict the weather 50-60 YEARS into the future.

Climate forcecasts and weather forecasts are not done the same way. Climate can be predicted 50-60 years in the future; weather can't be.

50 posted on 12/01/2006 10:30:42 AM PST by cogitator
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