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Sealing the Fate of Antarctica
The American Spectator ^ | 12/20/2006 | Patrick J. Michaels

Posted on 12/20/2006 11:43:29 AM PST by neverdem

The scare du jour on global warming is a massive inundation of our coast caused by rapid loss of ice from Antarctica. It's a core point in Al Gore's science fiction movie, and it continues to be thumped by doomsayers around the world, in the echo chamber of the alarmist media. It's also a bunch of hooey.

If you could take the boredom, you could have read hundreds of news stories on this since An Inconvenient Truth debuted on May 25. But you'll find very little mention of a paper that appeared a mere six weeks later, in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, which should have stopped the whole show cold. The work is by Brenda Hall from the University of Maine and several co-authors.

First, Gore's science fiction. Due to the warming of the surrounding ocean, big ice-shelves begin to crack off and float away. Because that ice is floating, it doesn't raise sea level a bit. But then the ice cracks all the way back to where it is grounded on the ocean floor. That stuff isn't floating and the ocean rises dramatically, some twenty feet in a hundred years. Much of Manhattan, the movie suggests, is under water, along with just about every other coastal city.

Now, the truth. The notion that this is going to happen soon has just been fatally harpooned by giant Elephant Seals (Mirounga leonine). They generally hang out a long distance form Antarctica. Most of their breeding rookeries are a good 2,000 miles away on islands in the open ocean, where they feed. Most of the Antarctic coast is hemmed by huge ice shelves that prevent them from finding food.

But that wasn't always the case. According to Hall's paper, a large area of the Antarctic coast was ice-free...

(Excerpt) Read more at spectator.org ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial; News/Current Events; Technical
KEYWORDS: antarctica; climate; climatechange; climatology; elephantseals; globalwarming
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1 posted on 12/20/2006 11:43:33 AM PST by neverdem
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To: neverdem

Elephant Seals? Obviously Republican Seals and thus can be totally ignored..........


2 posted on 12/20/2006 11:46:47 AM PST by Red Badger (New! HeadOn Hemorrhoid Medication for Liberals!.........Apply directly to forehead.........)
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To: neverdem

"harpooned by giant Elephant Seals"

Ah-ha! Revenge of the Elephant Seals! The harpoons and the tables they were on are turned.


3 posted on 12/20/2006 11:46:59 AM PST by Sax
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To: neverdem
Antarctica is a desert. I always thought that a slight increase in air temperature would cause greater evaporation from the surrounding oceans and more deposits on the continent itself. Lowering sea levels.
4 posted on 12/20/2006 11:47:44 AM PST by kinoxi
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To: neverdem

Al Gore lies - People Die


5 posted on 12/20/2006 11:49:17 AM PST by edcoil (Reality doesn't say much - doesn't need too)
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To: DaveLoneRanger; All
Holocene elephant seal distribution implies warmer-than-present climate in the Ross Sea

We show that southern elephant seal (Mirounga leonina) colonies existed proximate to the Ross Ice Shelf during the Holocene, well south of their core sub-Antarctic breeding and molting grounds. We propose that this was due to warming (including a previously unrecognized period from 1,100 to 2,300 14C yr B.P.) that decreased coastal sea ice and allowed penetration of warmer-than-present climate conditions into the Ross Embayment. If, as proposed in the literature, the ice shelf survived this period, it would have been exposed to environments substantially warmer than present.

6 posted on 12/20/2006 11:51:29 AM PST by neverdem (May you be in heaven a half hour before the devil knows that you're dead.)
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To: neverdem
This guy needs to take a course in "Clarity in Writing"

You can get the crux of what the science shows but its like pulling teeth! Probably would have been clearer if the scientist, Brenda Hall, had written her own article.

7 posted on 12/20/2006 11:53:30 AM PST by HardStarboard (Give Pelosi and Reid Enough Rope to Hang Themselves.)
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To: neverdem

Has anyone explained to AlGore what an ice age is, and how the advent of homo sapien HASN'T changed the earth's climate-the ice ages will continue to come and go.


8 posted on 12/20/2006 11:58:18 AM PST by Spok
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To: neverdem
Image and video hosting by TinyPic ELEPHANT SEAL
9 posted on 12/20/2006 12:00:28 PM PST by Old Seadog (Inside every old person is a young person saying "WTF happened?".)
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To: neverdem

btt


10 posted on 12/20/2006 12:02:56 PM PST by Cacique (quos Deus vult perdere, prius dementat ( Islamia Delenda Est ))
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To: kinoxi

That wouldn't matter. Ice flows under sufficient pressure -- more precipitation in Antarctica would simply push the ice sheets out to sea a bit faster, thus keeping the total size of the ice cap more or less constant.


11 posted on 12/20/2006 12:06:50 PM PST by steve-b (It's hard to be religious when certain people don't get struck by lightning.)
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To: neverdem

Wait just one minute!!!!

Are you suggesting that Global Warming is not man made? You are using "fuzzy science" to suggest that Al Gore's book is science fiction.

BTW - In some circles Al Gore is credited with inventing the internet. I think it is only appropriate that we also credit him with inventing Global Climate Catastrophe.


12 posted on 12/20/2006 12:10:47 PM PST by Tenacious 1 (No to nitwit jesters with a predisposition of self importance and unqualified political opinions!)
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To: steve-b

It's not floating (on water), it's a continent. I understand the displacement effect but it does not apply to Antarctica in general.


13 posted on 12/20/2006 12:10:54 PM PST by kinoxi
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To: Spok

[Has anyone explained to AlGore what an ice age is, and how the advent of homo sapien HASN'T changed the earth's climate-the ice ages will continue to come and go.]

Good luck. You will have to start by explaining to him what ICE is.


14 posted on 12/20/2006 12:12:09 PM PST by Tenacious 1 (No to nitwit jesters with a predisposition of self importance and unqualified political opinions!)
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To: Tenacious 1

Explain to Algore what ICE is? Algore INVENTED ice.


15 posted on 12/20/2006 12:23:45 PM PST by PeterFinn (B’fhearr Gaeilge briste na Béarla cliste.)
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To: kinoxi

That would be Boyle's Law that you are alluding to.


16 posted on 12/20/2006 12:41:15 PM PST by massgopguy (I owe everything to George Bailey)
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To: kinoxi

That's a different issue. The one I'm talking about is why all the water on Earth doesn't slowly accumulate into the ice caps -- when the ice gets thick enough, it flows out to sea, drifts into warmer regions, and melts.


17 posted on 12/20/2006 12:44:28 PM PST by steve-b (It's hard to be religious when certain people don't get struck by lightning.)
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To: Tenacious 1

Better yet, next time ask a Moonbat why the Sun is yellow. They usally answer that it's irrelevent. No, it's not. The Sun is yellow because it is burning Hydrogen. When it has exhausted its Hydrogen fuel it will start to burn Helium. This is when a star becomes a Red Giant. All the Inner Planets will go whoosh.


18 posted on 12/20/2006 12:45:51 PM PST by massgopguy (I owe everything to George Bailey)
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To: massgopguy

Similar concept.


19 posted on 12/20/2006 12:46:25 PM PST by kinoxi
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To: neverdem
NewsFlash! Manbearpig just got harpooned by the Elephant Seals!

Somebody call Drudge!


20 posted on 12/20/2006 12:47:49 PM PST by darkwing104 (Let's get dangerous)
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To: steve-b
If the ice accumulates in a dessert (Antarctica) and sheds at a certain rate, it is still accumulating. If you increase the moisture content of the surrounding air (global warming) it will increase the accumulation of water/ice on the land area. If the ice was accumulating before what mechanism would cause it to accelerate the shedding to the point of net water loss?
21 posted on 12/20/2006 12:51:05 PM PST by kinoxi
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To: Tenacious 1
You will have to start by explaining to him what ICE is.

The stuff his former boss recommended putting on it?

22 posted on 12/20/2006 12:55:59 PM PST by steve-b (It's hard to be religious when certain people don't get struck by lightning.)
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To: massgopguy
I tried studying Boyle's Law in High School but I couldn't take the pressure.

Then we went on to Charles' Law and I couldn't take the heat.

Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)

LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)

23 posted on 12/20/2006 12:57:23 PM PST by LonePalm (Commander and Chef)
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To: kinoxi
If the ice accumulates in a dessert (Antarctica) and sheds at a certain rate, it is still accumulating. If you increase the moisture content of the surrounding air (global warming) it will increase the accumulation of water/ice on the land area. If the ice was accumulating before what mechanism would cause it to accelerate the shedding to the point of net water loss?

The relevant dynamics are:

1. Precipitation falls on the ice cap at a certain rate and freezes (if it wasn't frozen already). This increases the size of the ice cap.

2. When the ice cap gets thick enough to flow under pressure, parts of it get pushed out to sea, break off as icebergs, drift out into the ocean, and melt when they reach warmer regions. This decreases the size of the ice cap.

In the long term, these two processes balance out in equilibrium. If (for example) precipitation increases, the ice cap will thicken, build up more pressure, and flow faster, thus increasing the rate of iceberg formation and re-balancing the equilibrium.

24 posted on 12/20/2006 12:59:32 PM PST by steve-b (It's hard to be religious when certain people don't get struck by lightning.)
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To: neverdem

Soon real estate in Greenland will become very attractive.


25 posted on 12/20/2006 12:59:56 PM PST by MinorityRepublican (Everyone that doesn't like what America and President Bush has done for Iraq can all go to HELL)
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To: steve-b
Antarctica is a very large continent that has an obvious net gain of water on it's surface (accretion). If the amount of precipitation increases you believe that the rate of dispersement will increase proportionally. Is this correct?
26 posted on 12/20/2006 1:06:03 PM PST by kinoxi
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To: neverdem

Bookmarked


27 posted on 12/20/2006 1:07:02 PM PST by GreenAccord (Alright, everyone. Rotate your tagline!)
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To: neverdem

Everyone would get one's own penguin.


28 posted on 12/20/2006 1:40:58 PM PST by GSlob
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To: massgopguy
"... when a star becomes a Red Giant. All the Inner Planets will go whoosh."

So? It's not as if Earth were one of the major planets.

29 posted on 12/20/2006 2:01:29 PM PST by NicknamedBob ("Well," said the Asimov Robot, "A catenary is a sag, and a parabola is a droop.")
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To: LonePalm

I was getting into Snell's Law, but I think he was a little crooked.


30 posted on 12/20/2006 2:03:03 PM PST by NicknamedBob ("Well," said the Asimov Robot, "A catenary is a sag, and a parabola is a droop.")
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To: neverdem; DaveLoneRanger; cogitator

Interesting article.


31 posted on 12/20/2006 2:23:26 PM PST by Tolerance Sucks Rocks (“Don’t overestimate the decency of the human race.” —H. L. Mencken)
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To: Tolerance Sucks Rocks

I think, based on a lot of what I've read, that the main concern is Greenland, not Antarctica. I'd like to see Michaels provide some support for his opening statement.


32 posted on 12/20/2006 2:36:17 PM PST by cogitator
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To: NicknamedBob
Well, certainly bent.

I think you're forgetting Cole's Law.

Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)

LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)

33 posted on 12/20/2006 4:45:46 PM PST by LonePalm (Commander and Chef)
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To: LonePalm

There's something fishy about Sturgeon's law, too.

And didn't Isaac Asimov propose Three Laws of Rebootics?


(By the way, I think Bode's Law has been repealed.)


34 posted on 12/20/2006 5:14:59 PM PST by NicknamedBob ("Well," said the Asimov Robot, "A catenary is a sag, and a parabola is a droop.")
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To: Spok

I used to play golf at Drumlins, a course in central NY. The Drumlins were little hills left when a glacier shoved rocks, gravel and sand in front of it, and then left the pile when it melted.

Ice ages are really bad, and a little warmth that prevents one is a easy thing to tolerate. There is a stable climate: the iceball, where the earth is covered by snow and ice, there is no carbon dioxide, and most sunlight is reflected back into space.


35 posted on 12/20/2006 5:35:54 PM PST by donmeaker (If the sky don't say "Surrender Dorothy!" then my ex wife is out of town.)
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To: cogitator
I think, based on a lot of what I've read, that the main concern is Greenland, not Antarctica.

Climate warming 'seesaws' between the poles

36 posted on 12/20/2006 7:52:03 PM PST by neverdem (May you be in heaven a half hour before the devil knows that you're dead.)
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To: wardaddy; Joe Brower; Cannoneer No. 4; Criminal Number 18F; Dan from Michigan; Eaker; Jeff Head; ...
Climate ideology control

Realism, Iraq, and the Bush Doctrine - Some clarification is desperately needed.

“Saddam's Iraq and Islamic Terrorism: What We Now Know”

From time to time, I’ll ping on noteworthy articles about politics, foreign and military affairs. FReepmail me if you want on or off my list.

37 posted on 12/20/2006 8:04:49 PM PST by neverdem (May you be in heaven a half hour before the devil knows that you're dead.)
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To: neverdem
Al Gore? Al Gore? The name is vaguely familiar. Didn't used to be someone?
38 posted on 12/20/2006 8:58:07 PM PST by Valin (History takes time. It is not an instant thing.)
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To: neverdem
The watermelons aren't going to like this at all. Of course they'll just ignore it as it doesn't fit their political agenda. They won't be happy until the entire world is a U.N. Biosphere Reserve and most of the people have been euthanized.
39 posted on 12/20/2006 9:03:17 PM PST by dljordan
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To: kinoxi

"It's not floating (on water), it's a continent. I understand the displacement effect but it does not apply to Antarctica in general."

I'd like to see what it looks like without the ice. I wonder if the ice was gone there would be some kind of rebound effect in the crust and it would rise?


40 posted on 12/20/2006 9:05:39 PM PST by dljordan
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To: dljordan

Interesting, it probably would rise a little.


41 posted on 12/20/2006 9:10:28 PM PST by kinoxi
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To: neverdem

Thanks for the ping!


42 posted on 12/20/2006 9:25:36 PM PST by Alamo-Girl
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To: steve-b
In the long term, these two processes balance out in equilibrium. If (for example) precipitation increases, the ice cap will thicken, build up more pressure, and flow faster, thus increasing the rate of iceberg formation and re-balancing the equilibrium.

Yes it would balance, but the ice cap would be thicker than before the snowfall rate increased. If it wasn't thicker, it couldn't produce the higher flow rate that balances the higher snowfall rate.

43 posted on 12/20/2006 9:40:40 PM PST by El Gato
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To: neverdem

The article link you provided does not address the substance of my comment. In terms of the next 100-200 years, the main concern of catastrophic climate change with respect to major sea level change is the melting of the Greenland ice sheet. Continental Antarctica is considered to be somewhat (though not entirely) insulated from rising global temperatures. The "exposed" Antarctic Peninsula, however, is not.


44 posted on 12/21/2006 7:57:47 AM PST by cogitator
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To: cogitator
The article link you provided does not address the substance of my comment. In terms of the next 100-200 years, the main concern of catastrophic climate change with respect to major sea level change is the melting of the Greenland ice sheet.

Did manmade phenomena cause the place to be named Greenland? There are multiple arguments with physical evidence supporting the arguments to believe that the warming that is occuring is just a natural phenomena, not anthropogenic. And while increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations sounds like a plausible reason for increased temperature, the historical record from geological investigations show that the increased carbon dioxide concentrations occred after periods of warmer temperature, not before. Do you need more links?

45 posted on 12/21/2006 11:05:34 AM PST by neverdem (May you be in heaven a half hour before the devil knows that you're dead.)
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To: neverdem
Vikings During the Medieval Warm Period

"n 960, Thorvald Asvaldsson of Jaederen in Norway killed a man. He was forced to leave the country so he moved to northern Iceland. He had a ten year old son named Eric, later to be called Eric Rohde, or Eric the Red. Eric too had a violent streak and in 982 he killed two men. Eric the Red was banished from Iceland for three years so he sailed west to find a land that Icelanders had discovered years before but knew little about. Eric searched the coast of this land and found the most hospitable area, a deep fiord on the southwestern coast. Warmer Atlantic currents met the island there and conditions were not much different than those in Iceland (trees and grasses.) He called this new land "Greenland" because he "believed more people would go thither if the country had a beautiful name," according to one of the Icelandic chronicles (Hermann, 1954) although Greenland, as a whole, could not be considered "green." Additionally, the land was not very good for farming.

There are multiple arguments with physical evidence supporting the arguments to believe that the warming that is occuring is just a natural phenomena, not anthropogenic.

Any of these arguments is flawed in some manner. What's your favorite?

And while increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations sounds like a plausible reason for increased temperature, the historical record from geological investigations show that the increased carbon dioxide concentrations occred after periods of warmer temperature, not before. Do you need more links?

I am totally and repetitively familiar with this flawed argument, and I've got all the links I need. Such as this one:

What does the lag of CO2 behind temperature in ice cores tell us about global warming?

CO2 lags, not leads

"A close examination of the CH4, CO2 and temperature fuctuations recorded in the Antarctic ice core records does in fact reveal that yes, the temperature moved first in what is, when viewed coarsely, a very tight correlation. But what it is not correct, is to say the temperature rose and then 800 years later the CO2 rose. These warming periods lasted for 5000 to 10000 years (the coolings lasted ~100kyrs) so for the majority of that time (~90%) temperature and CO2 rose together. This means that this wonderful archive of climatological evidence clearly allows for CO2 acting as a cause while also revealing it can be an effect."

"The current understanding of those cycles is that changes in orbital parameters (Milankovich and other cycles) caused greater amounts of summer sunlight in the northern hemisphere. This is a very small forcing. But it caused ice to retreat in the north which changed the albedo increasing the warmth in a feedback effect. Some ~800 years after this process started, CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere began to rise and this also amplified the warming."

Next?

46 posted on 12/21/2006 12:08:54 PM PST by cogitator
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To: cogitator
Any of these arguments is flawed in some manner.

That's your opinion.

What's your favorite?

Take your pick.

The truth about global warming - it's the Sun that's to blame

Global Warming on Pluto Puzzles Scientists

THE PHYSICAL EVIDENCE OF EARTH'S UNSTOPPABLE 1,500-YEAR CLIMATE CYCLE

In Ancient Fossils, Seeds of a New Debate on Warming

Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels for the last 500 million years

Evidence for decoupling of atmospheric CO2 and global climate during the Phanerozoic eon

Global Warming on Mars?

Evolution of the Sun's large-scale magnetic field since the Maunder minimum.

Science and Public Policy

As physicist Edward Teller reminded us: "Highly speculative theories of worldwide destruction—even of the end of life on Earth—used as a call for a particular kind of political action serve neither the good reputation of science nor dispassionate political thought."

The debate reminds me about the former medical truism that ulcers are mainly caused by stress and spicy foods. A recent winner of the Nobel for Medicine proved that the major cause, 80 - 90 perent, for gastrointestinal ulcers is Helicobacter Pylori. I'm sure I could have found more links to illustrate other variables we don't understand. Proponents of anthropogenic global warming would be wise to heed the advice of Dr. Teller, IMHO.

47 posted on 12/21/2006 5:03:25 PM PST by neverdem (May you be in heaven a half hour before the devil knows that you're dead.)
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To: cogitator
"so for the majority of that time (~90%) temperature and CO2 rose together."


What hat did you pull that out of? I am looking at a few Charts none are even close to 90%.

48 posted on 12/21/2006 5:27:00 PM PST by Steve Van Doorn (*in my best Eric cartman voice* ?I love you guys?)
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To: cogitator; neverdem

I was going to say about why it was called Greenland, but Codge beat me to it...


49 posted on 12/21/2006 6:22:04 PM PST by DaveLoneRanger ("I am here to fight evil and exchange good-natured barbs." - The Tick)
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To: neverdem; texianyankee; JayB; ElkGroveDan; markman46; palmer; Bahbah; Paradox; FOG724; ...
(((GLOBAL WARMING PING)))



You have been pinged because of your interest in environmentalism, alarmist wackos, mainstream media doomsday hype, and other issues pertaining to global warming.
Freep-mail me to get on or off: Add me / Remove me
Please ping me to all note-worthy threads on global warming.

50 posted on 12/21/2006 6:24:11 PM PST by DaveLoneRanger ("I am here to fight evil and exchange good-natured barbs." - The Tick)
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