Posted on 12/22/2006 2:42:15 PM PST by LdSentinal
WASHINGTON — The population diaspora caused by Hurricane Katrina will likely result in Louisiana losing one of its seven U.S. House of Representatives seats, analysts said Thursday.
Though the 2010 U.S. Census that will ultimately determine the shape of the congressional districts is still four years away, the nearly 220,000 population loss over the last year estimated by the Census Bureau indicates that the state will have to fight to maintain its congressional power.
“Even if a lot of people come back, we’re going to lose,” said former U.S. Rep. Clyde Holloway, R-Forest Hill. “You don’t have to lose population; you just don’t have to gain.”
Holloway knows a little about the process. He was the last Louisiana congressman to lose his seat to reapportionment in 1992. Because of population loss from the 1990 Census, Holloway’s 8th Congressional District was blended into the 6th Congressional District occupied by U.S. Rep. Richard Baker, R-Baton Rouge.
Despite Holloway winning 15 of 17 parishes, Baker carried the day in the city, defeating Holloway, who had served in Congress for six years.
“It’s not a good feeling,” said Holloway, a longtime nursery owner who also serves as state director for the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s rural development program. “Any time a state loses a seat, it’s going to hurt.”
Election Data Services Inc., a Washington consulting company that analyzes state populations and congressional seats, listed Louisiana as the most harmed state because of the population loss this year.
The survey agency warned in last year’s report that the effects of Katrina could result in Louisiana losing a congressional seat and Texas gaining one. The new figures will likely make it a reality, EDSI company president Kimball Brace said.
“We had an inkling,” said Brace, who releases an annual report on the subject. “Katrina-driven population loss leads to Louisiana losing a congressional seat.”
Brace noted that the estimate is based on current statistics and that the state could see a population rebound before the 2010 Census for which the congressional seats are based.
Where the congressional seat would be lost remains debatable. The Legislature would redraw the districts.
The districts’ makeup and whoever controls the governor’s office will likely play a “colossal” role in how the seats are drawn, said Ed Renwick, a Loyola University political science professor.
“That would be a major political fight,” Renwick said. “The Democrats would want to come out on top and the Republicans would want to come out on top.”
Currently, five Republicans — Baker, Jim McCrery, R-Shreveport, Charles Boustany, R-Lafayette, Rodney Alexander, R-Quitman, Bobby Jindal, R-Kenner — and two Democrats, William Jefferson, D-New Orleans, and Charlie Melancon, D-Napoleonville, hold House seats.
The logical assumption would be that the loss would come from the area hit by the storm, New Orleans, which is also where U.S. Sens. Mary Landrieu, D-La., and David Vitter, R-La., call home.
But Renwick contends that the state would be pressured to maintain a minority district like the 3rd Congressional District represented by Jefferson.
“The courts would insist that there be a minority district,” Renwick said. “That would affect the districts surrounding Jefferson’s district.”
Levee problems again?
what is happening to the population in mississippi, the state that the damn hurricane actually hit?
What happened to ray Ray's chocolate city?
I see them standing on the street corner every day while I'm delivering office supplies. It's the same crowd every day hanging out waiting for the postman to see if the check from uncle Sam has arrived.
What happened to ray Ray's chocolate city?
Changing to "dulce de leche"!
". . . the check from uncle Sam has arrived."
The check from the American tax payer has arrived.
Pretty good logic - the majority of the Louisiana diaspora was minority but they should be a protected class and keep "their own" district - damn good logic for the Democrats but unjust - fortunately, Jindal will be Governor by the time the time re-districting takes place.
As long as they don't go to Arizona.
There are too many liberals in Arizona already.
Shew, shew, you mangy boogers. Shew!
They'll probably take some of Melancon's districtand combine it with Jefferson's. Then combine the rest with Jindal or Baker's. The only other way I see them doing it is if they risk mixing conservative whites in with Jefferson hoping to dilute Jindal's district.
Ref Arizona...too late...they are here!
Governor Jindal will lead the redistricting effort..
And they go to Houston.
I don't know how they'll be able to preserve a Black district based in NOLA with such a gigantic population outmigration. I wouldn't think the population would be 30% Black, and would be potentially ripe for a Republican takeover. The only other possibility would be to try to draw a shockingly contorted district from NOLA along the Mississippi to Baton Rouge (which would shore up Richard Baker's position).
Hopefully, this will sink Mary Landrieu. The question is who will run. Possibilities include newly-elected Secretary of State Jay Dardenne, Congessman Charles Boustany, and state Senator Julie Quinn of Metarie.
Do people who live all the time in RV's actually vote?
I came to Arizona this springand it seemded ahlf the people lived in RV's between Tuscon and Phoenix
I'd hate to see Dardenne exit his current job. We definitely need someone of his calibre remaining as LA Secretary of State, for obvious reasons.
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