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Close Call with Asteroid 2006 XG1 in 2041

Posted on 12/27/2006 11:40:51 PM PST by LibWhacker

I don’t want to get you worried, or even mildly concerned. No need to panic. In fact, just read this little piece, and remark with interest that an asteroid is going to get really really close to the Earth on October 31, 2041. It might - I repeat might - have a small, insignificant chance of hitting the Earth and causing regional devastation. Like a 1 in 40,000 chance. Those are pretty good odds when you think of it.

Still not panicking? Good.

The asteroid in question is called 2006 XG1. It was discovered on September 20, 2006 by the University of Arizona’s Catalina Sky Survey, which surveys the observable sky to search for Near Earth Objects (NEOs); asteroids whose orbits interact with the Earth, and may impact with us in the future.

The object wasn’t originally considered a risk, but followup observations raised the chances to a 1 on the Torino Impact scale.

Here’s what the Torino Scale has to say about level 1 objects:

A routine discovery in which a pass near the Earth is predicted that poses no unusual level of danger. Current calculations show the chance of collision is extremely unlikely with no cause for public attention or public concern. New telescopic observations very likely will lead to re-assignment to Level 0.

There are currently only two objects on the Torino Scale with a risk higher than 0: 1950 DA, and now 2006 XG1. Here’s the interesting thing, though. The threat specifically from 2006 XG1 is still only one-tenth the background level we face from collisions all the time.

2006 XG1 is estimated to measure between 600 and 1,400 metres (.4 to .8 miles) across. For NEOs, that’s actually pretty large. If an asteroid that big were to hit the Earth, it would release the energy equivalent of 1700 megatons of TNT and cause regional scale devastation.

Although it could hit us, the most likely estimate guesses that 2006 XG1 will pass by on October 31, 2041 at a distance of only 5,000 km (3,100 miles). Consider that the Moon is about 385,000 km away. Whatever happens, it’ll be a close call.


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 1950da; 2006xg1; 2041; artbell; asteroid; eotwawki; neo; theendisnear
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1 posted on 12/27/2006 11:40:54 PM PST by LibWhacker
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To: LibWhacker
bush's fault. but only if it hits us.

should be a nice little show. i'll be in my 60's so i'll be ready to go if need be.

2 posted on 12/27/2006 11:43:38 PM PST by thefactor
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To: LibWhacker

Wasn't there some talk fairly recently about trying to hit an asteroid with something hard enough to hit it off course?


3 posted on 12/27/2006 11:45:01 PM PST by sageb1 (This is the Final Crusade. There are only 2 sides. Pick one.)
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To: LibWhacker

I'm really going to worry that it could blow up my grave.


4 posted on 12/27/2006 11:46:18 PM PST by taxesareforever (Never forget Matt Maupin)
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To: thefactor

34 years from now I "will" be 90.


5 posted on 12/27/2006 11:46:46 PM PST by sageb1 (This is the Final Crusade. There are only 2 sides. Pick one.)
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To: LibWhacker

Hitting on Halloween? Maybe its the ghosts of ancestors returning


6 posted on 12/27/2006 11:47:18 PM PST by Gothmog (John Edwards has pretty hair but terrible timing)
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To: LibWhacker

Gee. If there is a 1 in 40,000 chance of it hitting earth, that means there's a one in 40,000 chance of each person being killed. With 6 billion people, the chances of at least ONE of us being killed by this asteroid is pretty much certain.


:-)


7 posted on 12/27/2006 11:48:14 PM PST by CharlesWayneCT
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To: LibWhacker

At 81 would I care?


8 posted on 12/27/2006 11:48:23 PM PST by Dallas59 (HAPPY NEW YEAR 2007!)
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To: sageb1

Yes. It has to be the right kind of asteroid though. Apparently, it wouldn't work with a "rubble pile."


9 posted on 12/27/2006 11:49:16 PM PST by LibWhacker
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To: LibWhacker
Still not panicking? Good.

Whew!
10 posted on 12/27/2006 11:49:42 PM PST by kinoxi
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To: taxesareforever

I was wondering how to have my ashes scattered... problem solved!


11 posted on 12/27/2006 11:53:00 PM PST by clilly54
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To: LibWhacker
What are the chances of hitting the moon?

3100 miles is less than half the diameter of the earth. That's close.

It is hard to believe they can calculate its projected path that accurately.
12 posted on 12/27/2006 11:55:54 PM PST by DB
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To: LibWhacker
We're in deep doo doo. Bruce Willis will be too old to get us out of this one.
13 posted on 12/28/2006 12:05:35 AM PST by fish hawk (. B O stinks.)
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To: LibWhacker

14 posted on 12/28/2006 12:12:44 AM PST by Slings and Arrows (Tell Tom Vilsack to WEAR THE BEAR!)
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To: DB

Earth orbits around the sun at 18.6 miles per second. 3100 miles divided by 18.6 miles per second is 167 seconds! They calculated that in 35 years we'll miss it by less than 3 minutes! (assuming it crosses our orbit in front of or behind us, and not above or below)


15 posted on 12/28/2006 12:21:24 AM PST by idkfa
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To: LibWhacker
The real question is,
where will the moon be at this specific point of impact?

The moon has protected the Earth for over 2-Billion years, "YET"
nobody ever mentions the moon as it's own gravity force.

The moon causes earthquakes and all kinds of ocean occurrences
around the globe. Yet, no mention at all.

Take note Viro-Wackos.

16 posted on 12/28/2006 12:26:14 AM PST by MaxMax (God Bless America)
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To: LibWhacker

I'll probably be hacking up a lung or worried about leakage by then.


17 posted on 12/28/2006 12:27:07 AM PST by zarf
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To: clilly54

LOL! And that could be called "Ashes to Asteroid".


18 posted on 12/28/2006 12:27:17 AM PST by taxesareforever (Never forget Matt Maupin)
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To: idkfa

That's 0.0000151%...


19 posted on 12/28/2006 12:30:04 AM PST by DB
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To: MaxMax
The moon has protected the Earth for over 2-Billion years,

LIES!

20 posted on 12/28/2006 12:30:06 AM PST by Slings and Arrows (Tell Tom Vilsack to WEAR THE BEAR!)
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To: idkfa

0.16ppm Nah, me not worried.


21 posted on 12/28/2006 12:39:44 AM PST by Dawggie
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To: Slings and Arrows

http://www.planetfusion.co.uk/~pignut/moonmyth2.html

I trump your Moon theory, and raise you a Sun.


22 posted on 12/28/2006 12:40:17 AM PST by MaxMax (God Bless America)
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To: Slings and Arrows
I like the Moon up in space. I do not like asteroids in my face. I do not like them turning me into Spam. I do not like them, Sam I Am!
23 posted on 12/28/2006 12:40:49 AM PST by WestVirginiaRebel (Common sense will do to liberalism what the atomic bomb did to Nagasaki-Rush Limbaugh)
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To: LibWhacker

I hope I'm around for this.
I have a feeling, though, that by then we will have some pretty powerful particle beam weapons strong enough to detonate any threatening asteroid long before it got close. Heck, we might have that kind of weaponry in space already considering we developed atomic bombs over 60 years ago in the bronze age of technology.


24 posted on 12/28/2006 12:47:25 AM PST by Lancey Howard
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To: Mad Max; WestVirginiaRebel
I got yer "Sun" right here!
25 posted on 12/28/2006 12:50:27 AM PST by Slings and Arrows (Tell Tom Vilsack to WEAR THE BEAR!)
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To: Lancey Howard
Worry not human,

We will save you.

26 posted on 12/28/2006 12:52:40 AM PST by MaxMax (God Bless America)
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To: LibWhacker

1 in 40,000 chance the asteroid will hit us.

1 in 4 chance that a movie will soon be released that an asteroid will hit us.

1 in 1 chance that a movie will be rushed into production if the asteroid really will hit us, or if enviroweenies can find a way to blame the resulting global warming or global cooling on Bush because of it.


27 posted on 12/28/2006 12:59:43 AM PST by texas booster (Join FreeRepublic's Folding@Home team (Team # 36120))
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To: DB
Those are some long odds. They are almost the same as a worker exposed to second hand smoke for 40 hrs a week for 30 years. 0.000130
28 posted on 12/28/2006 1:10:36 AM PST by nemo31
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To: DB
Those are some long odds. They are almost the same as a worker exposed to second hand smoke for 40 hrs a week for 30 years. Getting lung cancer or heart disease. 0.000130
29 posted on 12/28/2006 1:10:37 AM PST by nemo31
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To: sageb1
"Wasn't there some talk fairly recently about trying to hit an asteroid with something hard enough to hit it off course?"

The problem is not in our trying to knock it off course. What happens if between now and 2041 if something in outerspace hits 2006 XG1 and knocks it 3,100 miles closer to earth?

Afterall, where did they find this rock? In an asteroid belt filled with all kinds of other rocks moving pretty fast.

yitbos

30 posted on 12/28/2006 1:12:11 AM PST by bruinbirdman ("Those who control language control minds." -- Ayn Rand)
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To: bruinbirdman

Quite true. Didn't think of it that way.


31 posted on 12/28/2006 1:14:52 AM PST by sageb1 (This is the Final Crusade. There are only 2 sides. Pick one.)
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To: Slings and Arrows
Obligatory post;


32 posted on 12/28/2006 1:24:23 AM PST by Salamander (And don't forget my Dog; fixed and consequent.......)
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To: sageb1
University of Arizona’s Catalina Sky Survey has another goal besides locating asteroids and calculating earth collision probability. That is to predict the probabilities of asteroid on asteroid collisions or near collisions (gravity effect of near misses) and resulting orbits.

Wonder how many asteroid orbits they look at before finding one near miss to report. Maybe they only report discovering a near miss when their funding review comes up. Kinda like NASA always finding water on Mars about every other year at budget time.

yitbos

33 posted on 12/28/2006 1:28:49 AM PST by bruinbirdman ("Those who control language control minds." -- Ayn Rand)
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To: texas booster

Maybe in 40 years all the greenhouse gases will make the earths atmosphere more dense and the asteroid will skip off of the atomopshere instead of entering it, had there not been anuy pollution:)


34 posted on 12/28/2006 1:31:00 AM PST by LukeL (Never let the enemy pick the battle site. (Gen. George S. Patton))
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To: bruinbirdman

:) 'nite...and thanks.


35 posted on 12/28/2006 1:32:50 AM PST by sageb1 (This is the Final Crusade. There are only 2 sides. Pick one.)
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To: bruinbirdman

Also remember that in space a tiny deviation of .00001% or less spread out over millions or billions of miles and many years can cause a huge change that we could not calculate.


36 posted on 12/28/2006 1:35:40 AM PST by LukeL (Never let the enemy pick the battle site. (Gen. George S. Patton))
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To: Dallas59

"At 81 would I care?"

If you have kids or grandkids, you would care. If you have any regard for humanity in you, you would care. If you have younger friends or neighbors you would care.

I think you would care. I hope you would.


37 posted on 12/28/2006 1:44:26 AM PST by TN4Liberty (Sixty percent of all people understand statistics. The other half are clueless.)
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To: sageb1
34 years from now I "will" be 90.

I'll be a young 78.....you old fart (lol)

38 posted on 12/28/2006 2:41:05 AM PST by Revelation 911
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To: Dallas59

I'll be 104 and the thought of that impact scares the hell out of me .


39 posted on 12/28/2006 2:44:21 AM PST by Renegade
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To: MaxMax

I'll se your son and raise Uranus .


40 posted on 12/28/2006 2:45:28 AM PST by Renegade
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To: Renegade

I'll be 94 but I haven't taken very good care of myself so bring it on.


41 posted on 12/28/2006 2:51:36 AM PST by Past Your Eyes (Do what you love and the ridicule will follow.)
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To: fish hawk

"We're in deep doo doo. Bruce Willis will be too old to get us out of this one."

The problem is that the scientist that was to discover the way to avoid the collision was aborted yesterday afternoon in Kansas.


42 posted on 12/28/2006 3:00:03 AM PST by lawdude (2006: The elections we will live to die for!)
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To: Dallas59

President Chelsea will save us all!


43 posted on 12/28/2006 3:09:46 AM PST by Las Vegas Dave (HDTV ping list, please FReepmail me if you would like your name added.)
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To: LibWhacker

Remember, if it's a big rock, fixin to hit some big city: ya gotta take it out, but if it's a missile(s). let er come on in. Show em we're peaceful. (And stupid.)


44 posted on 12/28/2006 4:16:46 AM PST by Waco
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To: LibWhacker

A half-mile across and 3,100 miles from impact? Sounds like it would make a dandy orbital platform. I wonder how we could slow it down enough to keep it?


45 posted on 12/28/2006 4:32:26 AM PST by Ol' Sox
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To: LibWhacker
By 2041 Global Warming will melt the sun, so who is worried about some rock?
46 posted on 12/28/2006 4:33:08 AM PST by BallyBill (Serial Hit-N-Run poster)
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To: BallyBill

Naw... Global warming will have just finished melting all the icebergs and the world will be a water planet. So when it hits that will be one massive wave... Surfs up dude!


47 posted on 12/28/2006 5:10:33 AM PST by Syntyr (Freepers - In the top %5 of informed Americans!)
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To: LibWhacker

Halloween?.........Apropos.....


48 posted on 12/28/2006 5:17:55 AM PST by Red Badger (New! HeadOn Hemorrhoid Medication for Liberals!.........Apply directly to forehead.........)
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To: Waco

I recently read a Sci-fi story about a combatant in a war that had hollowed out and asteroid and hid a command and control center with nuclear missiles in side. Their enemies never suspected, until it was too late..........


49 posted on 12/28/2006 5:20:28 AM PST by Red Badger (New! HeadOn Hemorrhoid Medication for Liberals!.........Apply directly to forehead.........)
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To: Lancey Howard
"Heck, we might have that kind of weaponry in space already"

The DemocRATS have been all over this "Star Wars" stuff.

Clinton cut funding for research to the bone. Face it, we are dooooommmmmmeeeeeddd!~

50 posted on 12/28/2006 5:20:51 AM PST by Jimmy Valentine (DemocRATS - when they speak, they lie; when they are silent, they are stealing the American Dream)
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