Skip to comments.Close Call with Asteroid 2006 XG1 in 2041
Posted on 12/27/2006 11:40:51 PM PST by LibWhacker
I dont want to get you worried, or even mildly concerned. No need to panic. In fact, just read this little piece, and remark with interest that an asteroid is going to get really really close to the Earth on October 31, 2041. It might - I repeat might - have a small, insignificant chance of hitting the Earth and causing regional devastation. Like a 1 in 40,000 chance. Those are pretty good odds when you think of it.
Still not panicking? Good.
The asteroid in question is called 2006 XG1. It was discovered on September 20, 2006 by the University of Arizonas Catalina Sky Survey, which surveys the observable sky to search for Near Earth Objects (NEOs); asteroids whose orbits interact with the Earth, and may impact with us in the future.
The object wasnt originally considered a risk, but followup observations raised the chances to a 1 on the Torino Impact scale.
Heres what the Torino Scale has to say about level 1 objects:
A routine discovery in which a pass near the Earth is predicted that poses no unusual level of danger. Current calculations show the chance of collision is extremely unlikely with no cause for public attention or public concern. New telescopic observations very likely will lead to re-assignment to Level 0.
There are currently only two objects on the Torino Scale with a risk higher than 0: 1950 DA, and now 2006 XG1. Heres the interesting thing, though. The threat specifically from 2006 XG1 is still only one-tenth the background level we face from collisions all the time.
2006 XG1 is estimated to measure between 600 and 1,400 metres (.4 to .8 miles) across. For NEOs, thats actually pretty large. If an asteroid that big were to hit the Earth, it would release the energy equivalent of 1700 megatons of TNT and cause regional scale devastation.
Although it could hit us, the most likely estimate guesses that 2006 XG1 will pass by on October 31, 2041 at a distance of only 5,000 km (3,100 miles). Consider that the Moon is about 385,000 km away. Whatever happens, itll be a close call.
should be a nice little show. i'll be in my 60's so i'll be ready to go if need be.
Wasn't there some talk fairly recently about trying to hit an asteroid with something hard enough to hit it off course?
I'm really going to worry that it could blow up my grave.
34 years from now I "will" be 90.
Hitting on Halloween? Maybe its the ghosts of ancestors returning
Gee. If there is a 1 in 40,000 chance of it hitting earth, that means there's a one in 40,000 chance of each person being killed. With 6 billion people, the chances of at least ONE of us being killed by this asteroid is pretty much certain.
At 81 would I care?
Yes. It has to be the right kind of asteroid though. Apparently, it wouldn't work with a "rubble pile."
I was wondering how to have my ashes scattered... problem solved!
Earth orbits around the sun at 18.6 miles per second. 3100 miles divided by 18.6 miles per second is 167 seconds! They calculated that in 35 years we'll miss it by less than 3 minutes! (assuming it crosses our orbit in front of or behind us, and not above or below)
The moon has protected the Earth for over 2-Billion years, "YET"
nobody ever mentions the moon as it's own gravity force.
The moon causes earthquakes and all kinds of ocean occurrences
around the globe. Yet, no mention at all.
Take note Viro-Wackos.
I'll probably be hacking up a lung or worried about leakage by then.
LOL! And that could be called "Ashes to Asteroid".
0.16ppm Nah, me not worried.
I trump your Moon theory, and raise you a Sun.
I hope I'm around for this.
I have a feeling, though, that by then we will have some pretty powerful particle beam weapons strong enough to detonate any threatening asteroid long before it got close. Heck, we might have that kind of weaponry in space already considering we developed atomic bombs over 60 years ago in the bronze age of technology.
We will save you.
1 in 40,000 chance the asteroid will hit us.
1 in 4 chance that a movie will soon be released that an asteroid will hit us.
1 in 1 chance that a movie will be rushed into production if the asteroid really will hit us, or if enviroweenies can find a way to blame the resulting global warming or global cooling on Bush because of it.
The problem is not in our trying to knock it off course. What happens if between now and 2041 if something in outerspace hits 2006 XG1 and knocks it 3,100 miles closer to earth?
Afterall, where did they find this rock? In an asteroid belt filled with all kinds of other rocks moving pretty fast.
Quite true. Didn't think of it that way.
Wonder how many asteroid orbits they look at before finding one near miss to report. Maybe they only report discovering a near miss when their funding review comes up. Kinda like NASA always finding water on Mars about every other year at budget time.
Maybe in 40 years all the greenhouse gases will make the earths atmosphere more dense and the asteroid will skip off of the atomopshere instead of entering it, had there not been anuy pollution:)
:) 'nite...and thanks.
Also remember that in space a tiny deviation of .00001% or less spread out over millions or billions of miles and many years can cause a huge change that we could not calculate.
"At 81 would I care?"
If you have kids or grandkids, you would care. If you have any regard for humanity in you, you would care. If you have younger friends or neighbors you would care.
I think you would care. I hope you would.
I'll be a young 78.....you old fart (lol)
I'll be 104 and the thought of that impact scares the hell out of me .
I'll se your son and raise Uranus .
I'll be 94 but I haven't taken very good care of myself so bring it on.
"We're in deep doo doo. Bruce Willis will be too old to get us out of this one."
The problem is that the scientist that was to discover the way to avoid the collision was aborted yesterday afternoon in Kansas.
President Chelsea will save us all!
Remember, if it's a big rock, fixin to hit some big city: ya gotta take it out, but if it's a missile(s). let er come on in. Show em we're peaceful. (And stupid.)
A half-mile across and 3,100 miles from impact? Sounds like it would make a dandy orbital platform. I wonder how we could slow it down enough to keep it?
Naw... Global warming will have just finished melting all the icebergs and the world will be a water planet. So when it hits that will be one massive wave... Surfs up dude!
I recently read a Sci-fi story about a combatant in a war that had hollowed out and asteroid and hid a command and control center with nuclear missiles in side. Their enemies never suspected, until it was too late..........
The DemocRATS have been all over this "Star Wars" stuff.
Clinton cut funding for research to the bone. Face it, we are dooooommmmmmeeeeeddd!~
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