Posted on 12/27/2006 11:40:51 PM PST by LibWhacker
I don’t want to get you worried, or even mildly concerned. No need to panic. In fact, just read this little piece, and remark with interest that an asteroid is going to get really really close to the Earth on October 31, 2041. It might - I repeat might - have a small, insignificant chance of hitting the Earth and causing regional devastation. Like a 1 in 40,000 chance. Those are pretty good odds when you think of it.
Still not panicking? Good.
The asteroid in question is called 2006 XG1. It was discovered on September 20, 2006 by the University of Arizona’s Catalina Sky Survey, which surveys the observable sky to search for Near Earth Objects (NEOs); asteroids whose orbits interact with the Earth, and may impact with us in the future.
The object wasn’t originally considered a risk, but followup observations raised the chances to a 1 on the Torino Impact scale.
Here’s what the Torino Scale has to say about level 1 objects:
A routine discovery in which a pass near the Earth is predicted that poses no unusual level of danger. Current calculations show the chance of collision is extremely unlikely with no cause for public attention or public concern. New telescopic observations very likely will lead to re-assignment to Level 0.
There are currently only two objects on the Torino Scale with a risk higher than 0: 1950 DA, and now 2006 XG1. Here’s the interesting thing, though. The threat specifically from 2006 XG1 is still only one-tenth the background level we face from collisions all the time.
2006 XG1 is estimated to measure between 600 and 1,400 metres (.4 to .8 miles) across. For NEOs, that’s actually pretty large. If an asteroid that big were to hit the Earth, it would release the energy equivalent of 1700 megatons of TNT and cause regional scale devastation.
Although it could hit us, the most likely estimate guesses that 2006 XG1 will pass by on October 31, 2041 at a distance of only 5,000 km (3,100 miles). Consider that the Moon is about 385,000 km away. Whatever happens, it’ll be a close call.
should be a nice little show. i'll be in my 60's so i'll be ready to go if need be.
Wasn't there some talk fairly recently about trying to hit an asteroid with something hard enough to hit it off course?
I'm really going to worry that it could blow up my grave.
34 years from now I "will" be 90.
Hitting on Halloween? Maybe its the ghosts of ancestors returning
Gee. If there is a 1 in 40,000 chance of it hitting earth, that means there's a one in 40,000 chance of each person being killed. With 6 billion people, the chances of at least ONE of us being killed by this asteroid is pretty much certain.
:-)
At 81 would I care?
Yes. It has to be the right kind of asteroid though. Apparently, it wouldn't work with a "rubble pile."
I was wondering how to have my ashes scattered... problem solved!
Earth orbits around the sun at 18.6 miles per second. 3100 miles divided by 18.6 miles per second is 167 seconds! They calculated that in 35 years we'll miss it by less than 3 minutes! (assuming it crosses our orbit in front of or behind us, and not above or below)
The moon has protected the Earth for over 2-Billion years, "YET"
nobody ever mentions the moon as it's own gravity force.
The moon causes earthquakes and all kinds of ocean occurrences
around the globe. Yet, no mention at all.
Take note Viro-Wackos.
I'll probably be hacking up a lung or worried about leakage by then.
LOL! And that could be called "Ashes to Asteroid".
That's 0.0000151%...
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