You forgot Garfield. He went from the House to the presidency. :)
"Meanwhile, in 1862, Ohioans elected him to Congress. President Lincoln persuaded him to resign his commission: It was easier to find major generals than to obtain effective Republicans for Congress. Garfield repeatedly won re-election for 18 years, and became the leading Republican in the House.
At the 1880 Republican Convention, Garfield failed to win the Presidential nomination for his friend John Sherman. Finally, on the 36th ballot, Garfield himself became the "dark horse" nominee."
So will be be Mitt, Rudy, or John? Any prediction?
posted on 01/07/2007 1:29:24 PM PST
No, I did remember Garfield, but I think we really have to start our analysis of presidential campaigns after the advent of radio, at the least.
I'm glad you asked for my prediction. First, there are a couple of candidates that have an outside shot, Thompson and Brownback. At least they have the resume, but don't really have support. I don't imagine anybody winning any primary other than those 5. I think even Newt won't win one.
My preference of the "Big Three" is Mitt. I think McCain is dangerous. He's (1) ancient, (2) mean and (3) insane. Rudy has far too many personality quirks that make me not want him in the presidency. He has this tendency to be unreasonably stubborn and to support people and ideas based on little evidence. (See Kerik) He will tend not to oppose whatever the latest cultural nonsense is and will not spend political capital on things like tax cuts and judges. I also think Mitt will be more appealing to conservatives than he appears now on this board.
I think McCain will win Iowa. He has a great organization and the caucus voters tend to respond to that sort of thing. And just judging by the behavior of Iowa voters, I think that they prefer stability.
Mitt is likely to win NH based on the fact that he's known in the region and NH voters go against conventional wisdom. At that point, Rudy's donations will dry up. The question is, can McCain repair enough burned bridges and cover his problems with age and rage to win? Will Romney be unable to wrest it from him?
I just don't see how Rudy can win many primaries. He doesn't have a broad organization and he doesn't appeal to doctrinaire conservatives. He does have name recognition now, and Mitt will have to work hard overcoming that deficiency.
It's hard to predict now, but unless McCain stumbles or has medical problems, I don't see how he will fail to win.
posted on 01/07/2007 1:59:58 PM PST
(It doesn't matter whom you vote for. It matters who takes office.)
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