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Population shift likely to boost GOP
The Washington Times ^ | January 8, 2007 | Donald Lambro

Posted on 01/08/2007 4:08:59 PM PST by Clintonfatigued

Ongoing population shifts from the North to the Sun Belt states will benefit Republicans more than Democrats in future House races and could enlarge the Republican Party's electoral count in presidential elections, political analysts say. Analysts say Democrats have offset the Republicans' Sun Belt advantage with gains in the Northeast and parts of the South and Southwest, but that the size of the migration by the end of this decade likely will give the edge to Republicans. "I think on balance the Republicans will benefit from the larger number of seats in the Sun Belt region. They won't get 100 percent of it, but more than the Democrats do," said Merle Black, a longtime analyst of Southern politics at Emory University in Georgia.

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtontimes.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: demographics; elections; exodus; population
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1 posted on 01/08/2007 4:09:01 PM PST by Clintonfatigued
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To: Clintonfatigued
I'd prefer to win on ideas, but I'll take a victory where I can get it.
2 posted on 01/08/2007 4:10:02 PM PST by Wormwood (Goldwater Republican.)
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To: fieldmarshaldj; AuH2ORepublican; Kuksool; zbigreddogz; JohnnyZ; Galactic Overlord-In-Chief; ...

Good news ping!


3 posted on 01/08/2007 4:10:16 PM PST by Clintonfatigued ("Appointing Earl Warren was the biggest damn fool thing I ever did." Dwight D. Eisenhower)
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To: Clintonfatigued

people keep thinking this, but then all you hear (from many posters here) is how the new "transplants" are bringing their politics with them.

I hear it on FR from people in texas, north carolina, colorado, virginia, new hampshire, the dakotas and montant, etc. So tell me, which states are getting more conservative?


4 posted on 01/08/2007 4:11:19 PM PST by oceanview
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To: Clintonfatigued

No GOP advantage until after the next census in 2010...Maybe in 2012?


5 posted on 01/08/2007 4:11:38 PM PST by TommyDale (If we don't put a stop to this global warming, we will all be dead in 10,000 years!)
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To: Clintonfatigued
I think someone has their trends off.

I remember someone giving a speech summarizing their sociological research on C-span, where they said that conservatives settle and then stay whereas liberals will move constantly. Thus those that move at retirement will overwhelmingly be liberals.
6 posted on 01/08/2007 4:12:14 PM PST by Fraxinus (My opinion worth what you paid.)
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To: Clintonfatigued

Correction, the population boost thanks to more amnesty for illegal immigrants coming soon in the U.S. will benefit leftist politics forever! Good-bye U.S.A., and good-bye conservatism very soon! Grrr!


7 posted on 01/08/2007 4:12:38 PM PST by johnthebaptistmoore
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To: oceanview

...Nevada, Arizona. Why is it that the disease of liberalism spreads so quickly?


8 posted on 01/08/2007 4:14:59 PM PST by My2Cents ("Friends stab you from the front." -- Oscar Wilde)
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To: Wormwood; Clintonfatigued
I'd prefer to win on ideas, but I'll take a victory where I can get it.

Abortion is an idea that affects both.

9 posted on 01/08/2007 4:15:47 PM PST by Paleo Conservative (Happy New Year!)
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To: Clintonfatigued
Ongoing population shifts from the North to the Sun Belt states will benefit Republicans more than Democrats in future House races and could enlarge the Republican Party's electoral count in presidential elections, political analysts say.

Well, let's hope, because otherwise the Democrats will have the sheeple so used to the socialized programs that we won't see a Republican majority for many decades.

And, of course, we need to hope this Democrat majority doesn't involve itself with "redistricting" in clever ways to overcome some of this population shift.

10 posted on 01/08/2007 4:16:14 PM PST by Peach (The Clintons pardoned more terrorists than they captured or killed.)
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To: oceanview

(That is, I'm adding NV and AZ to your list. The Dems see these as swing states by 2008.)


11 posted on 01/08/2007 4:16:45 PM PST by My2Cents ("Friends stab you from the front." -- Oscar Wilde)
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To: Wormwood

"I'd prefer to win on ideas, but I'll take a victory where I can get it."



Guess what, we *are* winning on ideas. People are leaving Democrat states and moving to Republican states.


12 posted on 01/08/2007 4:24:11 PM PST by AuH2ORepublican (http://auh2orepublican.blogspot.com/)
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To: Clintonfatigued; A. Pole; neverdem; Tolerance Sucks Rocks; Clemenza; rmlew; Yehuda; RaceBannon; ...
None of that will happen when there is an amnesty for the "illegal" aliens in this country. By my estimate all the numbers thrown around are being low balled on purpose so as not to alarm anyone. If as the government has stated over the last 20 years 10,000 illegals cross the border on a daily basis after 20 years that comes closer to 65 million, if doesn't take an idiot to do the math. The fact of the matter is, that the government has absolutely no clue how many illegal aliens are in the country.

Why does that matter you ask? Because if amnesty passes this congress as I suspect it will and is signed by a willing accomplice in the white house we will have a huge population shift to the blue states. That will mean redistricting as a result of the 2010 census. It will also mean a major shift in the electoral college and a lock on the white house and legislatures by the democrats.

That is only the tip of the iceberg. Most Latins hold vastly radical ideas far to the left of most "progressive" democrats. The US will shift far to the left as is happening in the rest of Latin America. Most Latin Americans are highly class conscious and identify themselves as the have nots, they have nothing but resentment for the wealthy and productive sector and will vote in any government that promises redistribution of wealth.

How do I know these things? Because I came from there (yes I'm an immigrant, a legal one), I speak the language and I converse with my fellow hispanics the neighborhood where I live which has an abundance of Mexicans, Salvadoreans and Ecuadorians. This country is on the verge of radical change and that threat is closer and more immediate than some can imagine.

13 posted on 01/08/2007 4:25:20 PM PST by Cacique (quos Deus vult perdere, prius dementat ( Islamia Delenda Est ))
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To: johnthebaptistmoore

see #13


14 posted on 01/08/2007 4:26:46 PM PST by Cacique (quos Deus vult perdere, prius dementat ( Islamia Delenda Est ))
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To: Clintonfatigued
"We don't really know the demographics that are driving the in-and-out migration in these states," said political analyst Rhodes Cook. "Some of them could be more affluent white conservatives, but they might be Hispanics who tend to vote more Democratic."

Bend over and kiss our GOP goodbye..

sw

15 posted on 01/08/2007 4:27:32 PM PST by spectre (Spectre's wife ("One Nation, One Standard")
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To: Cacique

Truly terrifying. I guess their vaunted Catholicism is not really so. I do not understand how my fellow Catholics can be so left.


16 posted on 01/08/2007 4:28:39 PM PST by Norman Bates (President Ford †)
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To: My2Cents

Nevada, Arizona....

Where SoCal goes to retire. Beats me why they bring their failed ideas with them.


17 posted on 01/08/2007 4:29:58 PM PST by tanuki
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To: Clintonfatigued

The Democrats have aborted many of their potential base and commit most of the vote fraud to make up the difference.


18 posted on 01/08/2007 4:30:14 PM PST by Apercu ("A man's character is his fate" - Heraclitus)
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To: My2Cents

Nevada, Arizona....

Where SoCal goes to retire. Beats me why they bring their failed ideas with them.


19 posted on 01/08/2007 4:31:36 PM PST by tanuki
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To: Wormwood

Atleast now we should focus on electing GOP'ers who actually HAVE ideas.


20 posted on 01/08/2007 4:31:59 PM PST by IllumiNaughtyByNature (Obama ... Kinda has the onomatopoeia of a train crashing as it pulls out of the station.)
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To: Clintonfatigued

That population shift will be overwhelmed by the other population shift that is occurring and will accelerate exponentially when the Republicans and the Democrats get their coveted Amnesty passed and signed, in whatever form.


21 posted on 01/08/2007 4:32:29 PM PST by arthurus (Better to fight them over THERE than over HERE)
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To: Norman Bates

"Catholicism"? Catholicism is Latin America is closer to the "liberation theology" variety, mixed in with Santeria and a whole bunch of other practices like "Curanderismo". It was tolerated by the church for a long time so they could report back to Rome how many new catholics were being brought to the church. If you are a mainstream catholic brought up in the Italian or Irish or Polish tradition of Europe you would not recognize a modern Latin American service, some things will look familiar. The sermon, though sprinkled with mentions of Christ would seem like a Christianized version of Lenin.


22 posted on 01/08/2007 4:33:06 PM PST by Cacique (quos Deus vult perdere, prius dementat ( Islamia Delenda Est ))
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To: Fraxinus
summarizing their sociological research on C-span...

garbage in, garbage out...

23 posted on 01/08/2007 4:33:12 PM PST by IllumiNaughtyByNature (Obama ... Kinda has the onomatopoeia of a train crashing as it pulls out of the station.)
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To: oceanview

The problem upcoming is the Latino "transplants." That makes all those calculations about population shifts from some states to other states and about the fecundity of southern and Christian females irrelevant to anything real. 70-100 million new Latinos will vote for the PRI's closest thing here which would be the Democrats. The kicker is that the Mexican contingent will also continue to vote in Mexico


24 posted on 01/08/2007 4:36:04 PM PST by arthurus (Better to fight them over THERE than over HERE)
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To: Clintonfatigued

The overt insanity of Pelosi and her gang of traitors will do more to boost the GOP in the coming hours and days and months.


25 posted on 01/08/2007 4:36:54 PM PST by ExTexasRedhead
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To: arthurus

see #13 and #24


26 posted on 01/08/2007 4:38:22 PM PST by Cacique (quos Deus vult perdere, prius dementat ( Islamia Delenda Est ))
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To: spectre

see #13 and #24


27 posted on 01/08/2007 4:39:53 PM PST by Cacique (quos Deus vult perdere, prius dementat ( Islamia Delenda Est ))
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To: Fraxinus
Maybe, but in real life that certainly is not happening here in Florida.

Libs just don't understand why they continue to lose elections here, and they just rant and rave about election fraud. - Frankly, I'm sick of it.

Florida may have been a swing state 8 - 10 years ago, but it has trended more red every election, and by a simple twist of fate, is also growing like crazy.

most of the transplants here that I have seen know exactly why they move here, and most of them are not retiring either.

The next census would make Florida number three in delegate count. - In front of NY.
28 posted on 01/08/2007 4:40:22 PM PST by bill1952 ("All that we do is done with an eye towards something else.")
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To: TommyDale

And only to be negated by the votes of recent immigrants, both legal and illegal.


29 posted on 01/08/2007 4:52:39 PM PST by Elsiejay (\)
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To: Clintonfatigued
If blue state residents move to red states are they going to vote blue or red? You could look at this story and come to different conclusions.
30 posted on 01/08/2007 5:08:31 PM PST by Uncle Hal
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To: Uncle Hal
If blue state residents move to red states are they going to vote blue or red? You could look at this story and come to different conclusions.

Same thought here. New Hampshire used to be reliably conservative, but liberals moving there from Vermont and Mass. (to escape high taxes, what irony) have moved it to at least a toss up, if not fairly blue state.

The conclusions reached in this article could be true if liberal blue staters move to red states and are interspersed among many heavily conservative districts. In that case, the population shift would lead to more congressional seats for the red state without necessarily impacting the heavily conservative districts.

Also, it's a probably the case that many people with the means pick up and move to a southern (red) state would be those wanting to escape the high taxes of blue states -- which means they might lean conservative to begin with. Otherwise, they'd be delighted to stay in blue states and pay out the nose for all their beloved government programs.

31 posted on 01/08/2007 5:29:33 PM PST by randita
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To: Cacique

Why are so many politicians asleep at the wheel when it comes to this disaster that's truly coming this way with the influx of the illegal immigration population, and what truly can be done to fully wake up everyone-and I mean everyone who truly is law abiding-to what's coming to the U.S. very soon?


32 posted on 01/08/2007 6:18:36 PM PST by johnthebaptistmoore
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To: oceanview

"people keep thinking this, but then all you hear (from many posters here) is how the new "transplants" are bringing their politics with them."

Its kind of like Nevada. People who hate California politics are moving to Nevada. Only thing is they are bringing their politics with them, and it was those politics that screwed up California in the first place.


33 posted on 01/08/2007 6:20:03 PM PST by raftguide
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To: Cacique
Well, the issue isn't really that important to much of the electorate. Polls (and election results) show this. Most Americans want enforcement at the border, but it usually barely makes the top 10 in terms of issues important to swing voters.

Contrary to what many of us think, the only people who "foam at the mouth" on the issue of illegal immigration are conservatives.

34 posted on 01/08/2007 6:30:47 PM PST by Clemenza (Rudy Rockefeller Giussolini: Hero to the Braindead and Brainwashed)
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To: Wormwood

I think we CAN win on Both~ The question is: will we decide to (or blather into liberal obscurity pandering to the media, and leftists)..


35 posted on 01/08/2007 6:57:04 PM PST by JSDude1 (www.pence08.com)
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To: Clemenza; johnthebaptistmoore; rdb3; mhking; rmlew; nutmeg; neverdem; Tolerance Sucks Rocks; ...
That because we have allowed it to become merely a conservative issue. And Conservatives share part of the blame since they only want to awaken fellow conservatives to the issue. In reality this should be a bi-partisan issue. We have many potential democrat rank and filers out there, rank and file union members whose wages are being eroded. The vast middle class that is fast disappearing. This issue needs to be sol;d to a broad front and it cannot be allowed to be painted by the MSM as merely an issue of the right. The vast center has more to lose that either extreme. The sad truth is that some conservatives view it as an issue of cheap labor and free trade and are willing to swell the ranks of the left for short term gratification of their profit motive. Blacks and other minorities that have been here longer will be left out when the cake is cut and will see what little influence they have erode. The sellouts like the Jacksons and the Sharptons will push for amnesty because socialism is more important to them than the fact that blacks are the biggest losers in all of this. The same holds true for Puerto Ricans who are American citizens by birth. I could write a much longer piece on this and perhaps I will. This battle right here is in the long term much more important than whether Iraq is run by despots or not.

It has been my experience that people show up to the polls for two basic reasons, both have an emotional element to them. One is the pocketbook, the other is simply fear. Both of these triggers must be used in the coming months as tools to oppose amnesty. But it cannot be just a conservative movement, we must ally ourselves with people who have a common ulterior motive in fighting this battle and we may find that some of our best allies in this matter will turn out to be far to the left of us.

People seem to forget that conservatism is a movement, NOT a political party and as long as both parties are beholden to special corporate and other interests they will not be listening to us until we are knocking at their doors and flooding the mailboxes with tons of snailmail in which citizens will have invested a 39 cent stamp and actually took the time to write something original. Emails and faxes are a waste of time and politicians long ago decided to ignore them. Pull up in front of their office with a truckload of mail and they will know there is an angry electorate out there.

36 posted on 01/08/2007 7:04:54 PM PST by Cacique (quos Deus vult perdere, prius dementat ( Islamia Delenda Est ))
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To: Cacique

You could not be more right. The only chance we have left is to defeat the coming amnesty. I don't have a clue how it can be done but it is the last chance for this country.


37 posted on 01/08/2007 7:10:07 PM PST by jack308
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To: Cacique; 2ndMostConservativeBrdMember; afraidfortherepublic; Alas; al_c; american colleen; ...


38 posted on 01/08/2007 7:12:47 PM PST by Coleus (Woe unto him that call evil good and good evil"-- Isaiah 5:20-21)
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To: jack308

see my post #34


39 posted on 01/08/2007 7:17:13 PM PST by Cacique (quos Deus vult perdere, prius dementat ( Islamia Delenda Est ))
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To: Cacique

Disturbingly true.

I guess our only recourse is to pray that amnesty doesn't pass. It will take an act of God to stop it.


40 posted on 01/08/2007 8:36:01 PM PST by Reddy (Home's Cool- Home School)
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To: Norman Bates
They aren't. Legal Latin immigrants do not want to be associated either illegals, or the party of gay parades.

However, they do want generations of entitlements, and as long as we let the left lure them in with promises of never having to work, we'll never get them to vote their conscience on social matters.

41 posted on 01/08/2007 8:37:03 PM PST by 4woodenboats ("Show me what Muhammad brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman")
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To: Clintonfatigued
Sorry to have to disagree with the Wash Times, but the yankee bastids bring their politics with them. I'm a Texan, but Fla. is a better example. All the snowbirds that live in Miami and the coastal regions vote Dem. Remember the close elections? No way it would have been that close without the yankee vote.

Texas is still fairly conservative, but Austin, Dallas, and Houston are lost forever. I think Austin could be "Paris" west. Instead of the peso for pizza, it might be the Euro. In Houston, you can drive for miles and never see an English sign other than road signs. It's either Vietnamese or Spanish. They are all Dems.

42 posted on 01/08/2007 8:46:13 PM PST by chuckles
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To: TommyDale

No GOP advantage until Bush is a vague memory.


43 posted on 01/08/2007 8:48:53 PM PST by jpsb
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To: Cacique

"The vast middle class that is fast disappearing."

Where is this "disappearance" coming from. Are there facts to support your thesis? I submit that home ownership is at an all time high. That's middle class for the most part. More people own stocks then ever before; that too is middle class.


44 posted on 01/08/2007 10:15:46 PM PST by raftguide
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To: raftguide
Of course everything boils down to definitions. There was a time when being middle class meant the wife remained home and the husband was able to support his family with his job. Don't know whether that was really ever true. The fact is that Americans are working longer hours to maintain a standard of living and with both spouces working. Home ownership is another one of those rather interesting phenomenons. With so many people mortgaged out and in debdt they own their houses on paper, but the reality is that it is banks and other financial instituions that "own" the houses. It's all a matter of definition and perspective. Peasants may own their land, but they are still peasants.

The fact is that class is a matter of class consciousness and self definition. Are blue collar workers members of the middle class?

Regarding stock ownership, we can quibble the fact that mutual funds have separated the owners from the means of production. What good is ownership if you have no say in policy or what goes on?

As Einstein once said, everyhting is relative.

45 posted on 01/08/2007 10:53:42 PM PST by Cacique (quos Deus vult perdere, prius dementat ( Islamia Delenda Est ))
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To: Clintonfatigued

**Ongoing population shifts from the North to the Sun Belt states will benefit Republicans more than Democrats in future House races and could enlarge the Republican Party's electoral count in presidential elections, political analysts say. **

So let's get more Republicans in every section of the U. s.


46 posted on 01/08/2007 11:19:11 PM PST by Salvation (†With God all things are possible.†)
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To: Clintonfatigued

** It forecasts a loss of House seats in Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, New York, Ohio, Missouri, Iowa and Louisiana, gains of one seat each in Florida, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and Utah, and a gain of two seats in Texas.
Another analysis shows an even larger "probable" shift of House seats from the North to the Sun Belt, according to Polidata, a Virginia-based demographic and political research firm.
Under these "probable changes," 13 seats could shift among 19 states, with eight gainers and 11 losers. "All the gainers are in the South and West and all the losers are in the East and Midwest except Louisiana," the Polidata study said.
Leading the "biggest gainers" would be Texas, with four additional seats. Polidata projects gains of two seats each in Florida and Arizona and one each in Georgia, Utah, Nevada, Oregon and Washington.
The biggest losers would be New York and Ohio, with two seats each. Massachusetts, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Illinois, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri and Louisiana each would lose one.
Because each state's electoral votes are based on its representation in Congress, the shift in House seats to the Sun Belt regions, where Republicans are strongest in presidential elections, would mean increased clout in the Electoral College, too.
"Overall, given a 2004 electoral vote of 286 [for President] Bush to 252 [for Sen. John] Kerry, the vote count based upon these 2010 projections would have been 292 Bush, 246 Kerry, a gain of six for the Republican ticket," Polidata's report said.**

Some more statistics from the story.


47 posted on 01/08/2007 11:21:35 PM PST by Salvation (†With God all things are possible.†)
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To: Cacique

Actually Catholicism in South and Latin America is growing to be extremely orthodox.


48 posted on 01/08/2007 11:23:17 PM PST by Salvation (†With God all things are possible.†)
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To: Cacique

This full response truly needs to be the story that's discussed in another thread and as soon as possible! The upcoming problems with the increasing influx of illegal immigrants alone-and I mean all of the upcoming problems as they relate to illegal immigrants-truly need to be front and center! All of the '08 GOP Presidential candidates must also fully respond to the best of abilities to all of this "upcoming damage" to this country! bttt!


49 posted on 01/08/2007 11:25:35 PM PST by johnthebaptistmoore
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To: johnthebaptistmoore

--Correction, the population boost thanks to more amnesty for illegal immigrants coming soon in the U.S. will benefit leftist politics forever! Good-bye U.S.A., and good-bye conservatism very soon! Grrr!--

Not necessarily, if many of the immigrants bring their traditional family values (such as Catholicism) with them.
Others with good business skills, such as many Vietnamese immigrants, tend to lean GOP.


50 posted on 01/08/2007 11:26:19 PM PST by rfp1234 (Custom-built for Bill Clinton: the new Toyota Priapus.)
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