Skip to comments.Population shift likely to boost GOP
Posted on 01/08/2007 4:08:59 PM PST by Clintonfatigued
Ongoing population shifts from the North to the Sun Belt states will benefit Republicans more than Democrats in future House races and could enlarge the Republican Party's electoral count in presidential elections, political analysts say. Analysts say Democrats have offset the Republicans' Sun Belt advantage with gains in the Northeast and parts of the South and Southwest, but that the size of the migration by the end of this decade likely will give the edge to Republicans. "I think on balance the Republicans will benefit from the larger number of seats in the Sun Belt region. They won't get 100 percent of it, but more than the Democrats do," said Merle Black, a longtime analyst of Southern politics at Emory University in Georgia.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtontimes.com ...
However, they do want generations of entitlements, and as long as we let the left lure them in with promises of never having to work, we'll never get them to vote their conscience on social matters.
Texas is still fairly conservative, but Austin, Dallas, and Houston are lost forever. I think Austin could be "Paris" west. Instead of the peso for pizza, it might be the Euro. In Houston, you can drive for miles and never see an English sign other than road signs. It's either Vietnamese or Spanish. They are all Dems.
No GOP advantage until Bush is a vague memory.
"The vast middle class that is fast disappearing."
Where is this "disappearance" coming from. Are there facts to support your thesis? I submit that home ownership is at an all time high. That's middle class for the most part. More people own stocks then ever before; that too is middle class.
The fact is that class is a matter of class consciousness and self definition. Are blue collar workers members of the middle class?
Regarding stock ownership, we can quibble the fact that mutual funds have separated the owners from the means of production. What good is ownership if you have no say in policy or what goes on?
As Einstein once said, everyhting is relative.
**Ongoing population shifts from the North to the Sun Belt states will benefit Republicans more than Democrats in future House races and could enlarge the Republican Party's electoral count in presidential elections, political analysts say. **
So let's get more Republicans in every section of the U. s.
** It forecasts a loss of House seats in Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, New York, Ohio, Missouri, Iowa and Louisiana, gains of one seat each in Florida, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and Utah, and a gain of two seats in Texas.
Another analysis shows an even larger "probable" shift of House seats from the North to the Sun Belt, according to Polidata, a Virginia-based demographic and political research firm.
Under these "probable changes," 13 seats could shift among 19 states, with eight gainers and 11 losers. "All the gainers are in the South and West and all the losers are in the East and Midwest except Louisiana," the Polidata study said.
Leading the "biggest gainers" would be Texas, with four additional seats. Polidata projects gains of two seats each in Florida and Arizona and one each in Georgia, Utah, Nevada, Oregon and Washington.
The biggest losers would be New York and Ohio, with two seats each. Massachusetts, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Illinois, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri and Louisiana each would lose one.
Because each state's electoral votes are based on its representation in Congress, the shift in House seats to the Sun Belt regions, where Republicans are strongest in presidential elections, would mean increased clout in the Electoral College, too.
"Overall, given a 2004 electoral vote of 286 [for President] Bush to 252 [for Sen. John] Kerry, the vote count based upon these 2010 projections would have been 292 Bush, 246 Kerry, a gain of six for the Republican ticket," Polidata's report said.**
Some more statistics from the story.
Actually Catholicism in South and Latin America is growing to be extremely orthodox.
This full response truly needs to be the story that's discussed in another thread and as soon as possible! The upcoming problems with the increasing influx of illegal immigrants alone-and I mean all of the upcoming problems as they relate to illegal immigrants-truly need to be front and center! All of the '08 GOP Presidential candidates must also fully respond to the best of abilities to all of this "upcoming damage" to this country! bttt!
--Correction, the population boost thanks to more amnesty for illegal immigrants coming soon in the U.S. will benefit leftist politics forever! Good-bye U.S.A., and good-bye conservatism very soon! Grrr!--
Not necessarily, if many of the immigrants bring their traditional family values (such as Catholicism) with them.
Others with good business skills, such as many Vietnamese immigrants, tend to lean GOP.
That's a tough battle to engage in, especially against a party whose entire strategy rests on class warfare and promises to its "base" (society's parasites and losers, etc.) that it will use the heavy hand of government to confiscate more and more money from society's hard-working success stories ("Republicans") and hand it over to them (the Democrat "base") in the form of "free" money (welfare), "free" health care, "free" education, "free" housing and food, zillions of other "free" government programs, "jobs" in government, etc., etc.
The only place where the forum of ideas comes into play is if you can finally convince those particularly dense voters who vote Democrat, even though they work hard and value the normal family unit and traditional American values, the stupidity of their irrational voting habits. That is not an easy task, but we must plod forward and never relent.
This country is about to join Latin America. The only feature of the new system that will help a little is the massive corruption that must also develop. That corruption will allow the larger industries to continue operating profitably for a few years but the the entire economy of the world will decline radically over time, in Europe the decline is quite inevitable as the whole area Islamizes. Here the major changes will likely be fairly sudden, as with a presidential election and a congressional election two years before or after. I may even live to see the major changes. Imagine a world that consists of Australia and China and Dar al Islam. I believe that with the Latinization of North America will also come a strong enough conversion to Islam that it will be effectively the second wave of the Barbarian Invasions.
The Northeasterners moving south seem tobe leaving their ideology behind them. The Californians trying to escape the insanity that is California are carrying the ideology in their UHauls right along with the furniture. It has given rise in Idaho and Colorado to a new concept-californication.
Not to be picky, but "snowbirds" are people who have residency in another state (usually in the NE or Mid-Atlantic states-many actually from Canada) and only live in Florida in the winter. They aren't residents of Florida in terms of voting.
The problem is the liberal people from NE and Mid-Atlantic states who move to Florida permanently. Rush talks about this quite often. He terms Palm Beach "New York City South".
As I understand it, the eastern coastal areas of Florida are heavily Democrat, but the western coastal areas and the panhandle lean conservative. Maybe a Florida resident can more fully explain the break down.
Where are the grandchildren of the "little old lady from Pasadena"?
They grew up and went to public school and passed on to UCxx where they mostly turned into lefties and moved to Colorado.
You're probably right. The daughter of the arch-conservative and traditionalist Catholic Congressman John Schmitz was Mary Kay LeTourneau, the notorious pedophile schoolteacher in the state of Washington. Of course, she is an extreme example. However, when we look at the leftward drift of many wealthy and politically prominent families, such as the Chandlers of Los Angeles Times fame, the Tafts of Ohio, the Rockefellers, and even the Kennedys of Massachusetts (founding father Joseph Kennedy was once described by his son, John Kennedy, as a Taft Democrat), there is a disturbing pattern. Similarly unreassuring is the list of prominent conservatives and Republicans who had children who are perverts or liberals: Dick Cheney, Ronald Reagan, Phyllis Schafly, and Douglas MacArthur, to cite some examples.
Institutions also drift leftward. The leftward drift of the Ivy League universities, as well as other prestigious colleges like Duke and Georgetown, has been ongoing in some cases for well over a century. What has happened to the locally run, community based public schools of pre-1960 America is well documented. Churches also suffer from such a drift. Cardinal Roger Mahoney, perhaps the most liberal Catholic prelate in the country, serves as Archbishop of Los Angeles, a position once held by Cardinal McIntyre, the most prominent American conservative critic of the Vatican II reforms. The Southern Baptist Convention, having defeated the old school mainline-style liberalism in the 1970s and 1980s, is under assault from neo-evangelicals like Rick Warren, who do a better job of hiding their liberalism under a "Christian" cloak than do the old school liberals in the largest mainline denominations. Even big corporations are not immune. Many Fortune 500 companies have sensitivity training and diversity programs far more intrusive and obnoxious than those the Feds and the states administer internally to their staffs.
With some luck, the Republicans may bounce back in the 2010s if the Democrats fall back on their old habits of increasing taxes, environmental lunacy, social engineering, and permissiveness toward crime. They have a habit of turning to the New Deal/Great Society playbook. A return to Carter-style humiliation of the U.S. military and American businesses overseas will also aid in a GOP comeback. Attempts to suppress the Internet and talk radio will probably boomerang to their disadvantage as well. However, until social and cultural conservatives can topple the death grip liberalism has on the nation's educational and cultural institutions, political conservatism will continue to fight a losing battle, as it has since the 1930s.
In the long run, the grandchildren of the "little old lady from Pasadena" will not produce many offspring for a number of reasons, and Hispanics and Asians will occupy their old neighborhoods, not only in Pasadena, but in Scottsdale, Puyallup, North Las Vegas, and Littleton as well.
Why would moving be politically based? We'll move at retirement because we will have no reason to be in the congested Washington, DC area - no family here, and we'd rather be in a quieter area. We're not deciding, "Which area has Republicans?" "Which area has Democrats?"
Yup. The problem is they then come to this cultural sewer and "go native". For the good of their souls they should stay home.
It is a losing battle. Conservatives are unlikely to become College Professors except to maybe teach math and/or science.