Seth Borenstein covers environment, science, health, aviation, government contracting and other technical-oriented issues. He specializes in explaining what technical issues mean to the average person.
Posted on 01/22/2007 8:48:48 PM PST by NormsRevenge
WASHINGTON - Human-caused global warming is here, visible in the air, water and melting ice, and is destined to get much worse in the future, an authoritative global scientific report will warn next week.
"The smoking gun is definitely lying on the table as we speak," said top U.S. climate scientist Jerry Mahlman, who reviewed all 1,600 pages of the first segment of a giant four-part report. "The evidence ... is compelling."
Andrew Weaver, a Canadian climate scientist and study co-author, went even further: "This isn't a smoking gun; climate is a batallion of intergalactic smoking missiles."
The first phase of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is being released in Paris next week. This segment, written by more than 600 scientists and reviewed by another 600 experts and edited by bureaucrats from 154 countries, includes "a significantly expanded discussion of observation on the climate," said co-chair Susan Solomon, a senior scientist for the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. She and other scientists held a telephone briefing on the report Monday.
That report will feature an "explosion of new data" on observations of current global warming, Solomon said.
Solomon and others wouldn't go into specifics about what the report says. They said that the 12-page summary for policymakers will be edited in secret word-by-word by governments officials for several days next week and released to the public on Feb. 2. The rest of that first report from scientists will come out months later.
The full report will be issued in four phases over the year, as was the case with the last IPCC report, issued in 2001.
Global warming is "happening now, it's very obvious," said Mahlman, a former director of NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab who lives in Boulder, Colo. "When you look at the temperature of the Earth, it's pretty much a no-brainer."
Look for an "iconic statement" — a simple but strong and unequivocal summary — on how global warming is now occurring, said one of the authors, Kevin Trenberth, director of climate analysis at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, also in Boulder.
The February report will have "much stronger evidence now of human actions on the change in climate that's taken place," Rajendra K. Pachauri told the AP in November. Pachauri, an Indian climatologist, is the head of the international climate change panel.
An early version of the ever-changing draft report said "observations of coherent warming in the global atmosphere, in the ocean, and in snow and ice now provide stronger joint evidence of warming."
And the early draft adds: "An increasing body of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on other aspects of climate including sea ice, heat waves and other extremes, circulation, storm tracks and precipitation."
The world's global average temperature has risen about 1.2 degrees Fahrenheit from 1901 to 2005. The two warmest years on record for the world were 2005 and 1998. Last year was the hottest year on record for the United States.
The report will draw on already published peer-review science. Some recent scientific studies show that temperatures are the hottest in thousands of years, especially during the last 30 years; ice sheets in Greenland in the past couple years have shown a dramatic melting; and sea levels are rising and doing so at a faster rate in the past decade.
Also, the second part of the international climate panel's report — to be released in April — will for the first time feature a blockbuster chapter on how global warming is already changing health, species, engineering and food production, said NASA scientist Cynthia Rosenzweig, author of that chapter.
As confident as scientists are about the global warming effects that they've already documented, they are as gloomy about the future and even hotter weather and higher sea level rises. Predictions for the future of global warming in the report are based on 19 computer models, about twice as many as in the past, Solomon said.
In 2001, the panel said the world's average temperature would increase somewhere between 2.5 and 10.4 degrees Fahrenheit and the sea level would rise between 4 and 35 inches by the year 2100. The 2007 report will likely have a smaller range of numbers for both predictions, Pachauri and other scientists said.
The future is bleak, scientists said.
"We have barely started down this path," said chapter co-author Richard Alley of Penn State University.
___
AP Special Correspondent Charles J. Hanley contributed to this report.
No one argues that it is happening, the disagreement is over what is causing it and what ought or ought not be done in the mean time..
On the Net:
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: http://www.ipcc.ch/
a Canadian climate scientist and study co-author
Reviewed not by a scientific pear review but by "experts"
Edited by bureaucrats from 154 countries...
Kinda makes one want to use it as kindling.
A very reasonable and bright geoscientist...not "off the deep end"...
"600 scientists"
Each with an obscure degree that suddenly holds the promise of a $70,000 government grant to confirm the "human caused" scourge.
"Ah, yeah, sure, humans probably contribute to, ah, global warming. You betcha. Now where do I sign the grant application?"
Iran will provide the solution soon enough.
Anybody else got one?
"No one argues that it is happening..."
You only have to read a typical FR climate thread to be disavowed of that notion.
Would someone please put some duct tape on Chicken Little's mouth. Then read him a geo-sciences grammar school book about the earth's temperature cycling which has been going on for over 100 million years (way more actually)....
This is getting very old -- and now GW is going to be preaching to this tune tomorrow night....God help us.
I'm no one, do I count. I vote NO.
I do.
Good point. :-)
"The future is bleak, scientists said."
Well, they are scientists, so they have to be right...right? We are doomed. Might as well quit work and start eating dessert.
Couple of billion vaporized instantly should shut up the overpopulation jeniuses.
Reviewed not by a scientific pear review but by "experts"
What is a "pear review"? :)
"iconic"
From clintonh8r's dictionary: (adj.) One of the most over-used words in the English language.
""Andrew Weaver, a Canadian climate scientist and study co-author, went even further: "This isn't a smoking gun; climate is a batallion of intergalactic smoking missiles.""
Give that man 10,000 carbon credits for his efforts!
Most of it before the 1950's.
A pear is a fruit.
I obviously meant peer. But then, I think just about everyone knew that.
Maybe what I should have said is,,
I am not convinced that global warming is not part of a naturally occurring climatic cycle that is solar driven or such instead of what I offered. Where we are in it at present or how it may affect us is subject to debate. :-)
No one with any CLUE is arguing. I have seen glaciers fading away, year by year. A lot of us have. The evidence is unarguable except by fools who love the sound of their own voice arguing.
The only "smoking gun" that I'm worried about are Islamofascist bombs and nukes.
Climate change has been happening since the earth was created. That doesn't mean man is responsible, it actually means man couldn't possibly be responsible.
" Might as well quit work and start eating dessert."
I always eat dessert first, you know, just in case.
Real professional. We're supposed to take this person seriously?
Just to make sure it meets the liberals' political agenda.
Sure, That's the way good science should be done, in secrecy.
I'm getting such a headache!
There aren't enough manure spreaders in the USA to haul that steaming pile.
>This segment, written by more than 600 scientists and reviewed by another 600 experts and edited by bureaucrats from 154 countries,<
Bureaucrats? I'm suspicious.
>They said that the 12-page summary for policymakers will be edited in secret word-by-word by governments officials<
Edited in secret by government officials? I'm really suspicious.
>Global warming is "happening now, it's very obvious," said Mahlman,<
Then why are you taking so much time to edit this thing?
>The February report will have "much stronger evidence now of human actions on the change in climate that's taken place,"<
Such as? Can you even give us a hint?
>As confident as scientists are about the global warming effects that they've already documented,<
...confident? I'm sorry aren't these the same people who want consensus over empirical data?
Man, predicting is really easy when I won't be alive to see my prognostications fail or succeed.
My son recently came home from school with the whole global warming caused by humans screed. This is being taught to him as fact, as if there is no debate whatsoever to be had.
He said he was told our actions are causing the worlds ice to melt. No maybe, no possibly, are.
Recently we took a trip outside these flat lands and we talked about why the land was so different where we went from where we live. He told me that he knew why the land was different. He said an ancient glacier had carved out the ground and that where we live the glacier had not reached.
I asked him if he learned that in school and he said yes. I then asked him if he was taught what made that ice melt. Guess what, he wasn't. Whodathunkit? I asked him what he thought of that. He said 'I think I need to ask my teacher that question'. I told him that would be a great idea.
I then asked him if people were driving cars and burning 'fossil' fuels so long ago. He laughed and told me I was being silly. But then, after a pause, I saw the moment of insight in his eyes. I saw the gears turning. My young son knew right then that he had been had.
I am eager for the next round of parent teacher conferances. I have a question to ask. ;)
We are all going to die again.
ROFL! That is a classic!
This part struck me:
...written by more than 600 scientists and reviewed by another 600 experts and edited by bureaucrats from 154 countries... the 12-page summary for policymakers will be edited in secret word-by-word by governments officials ... The rest of that first report from scientists will come out months later.As I was reading, all I could think of was:
A number of self-described scientists are collaborating with the world's most creative fiction writers and conmen....
I can accept that. : )
I'm thinking "intergalactic" should be "intragalactic".
(Its the sun, stupid).
Simple solution? Declare carbon, water vapor and the Sun polluyants. Then wait patiently for the next ice age and rescind.
Would NOAA. a government agency that relies on annual federal funding be prone to issue an everything is all OK report, or would it likely be biased to claim the atmospheric sky is falling report--and something better be done soon (by NOAA) report?
Hmmmm.
"No one with any CLUE is arguing. I have seen glaciers fading away, year by year. A lot of us have. The evidence is unarguable except by fools who love the sound of their own voice arguing."
Many people who do have a CLUE are arguing. The majority of them are prestigious researchers and Professors who say the ninnies espousing these theories are just that: ninnies.
As Rush is fond of saying... "It looks as if you have actually swerved right into the truth with that thought!!!"
Those "conmen" are also public policy advisers and CONsultants to Governor Schwartzenfibber!!! (who is having an undue effect on the POTUS unfortunately)
Could we get Laura's or even Barbara Bush's phone records under the FOIA? I'd like to see if Maria Shriver Schwartzenegger's phone number shows up anywhere and with what frequency!!! (I mean, we could have a First Lady Troica goin on here)
""A very reasonable and bright geoscientist...not "off the deep end"..."
"The future is bleak, scientists said."
He is NOW!!!
as long as we keep having weather, we will keep having predictions of imminent catastrophe!
I think global warming will be a good thing myself. There will be more arable land and despite rising sea levels there will be more coastal areas that you'd want to either live in or visit.
Unfortunately, we've learned that "peer review" doesn't mean checking the math.
Seth Borenstein covers environment, science, health, aviation, government contracting and other technical-oriented issues. He specializes in explaining what technical issues mean to the average person.
It's Pure Calculated Communism.
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