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Major Climate Change Report Looks Set To Alarm
New Scientist ^ | 1-29-2007 | Catherine Brahic

Posted on 01/29/2007 9:54:48 AM PST by blam

Major climate change report looks set to alarm

11:54 29 January 2007
NewScientist.com news service
Catherine Brahic

The most important report on the science of climate change for six years is set for release on Friday 2 February, and leaks suggest it will be an alarming read.

The minimum predicted temperature and sea level rises will jump, according to media reports, while the blame will be pinned firmly on greenhouse gas emissions from human activities. Its leading line is expected to be "there is a 90% chance humans are responsible for climate change", mostly due to the burning of fossil fuels.

That contrasts with the last version of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's report, issued in 2001, which concluded there was a 66% chance that humans were responsible for rising temperatures.

The new IPCC report is expected to predict that temperatures will rise by 2.0°C to 4.5°C by 2100. The 2001 report gave a range of 1.4°C and 5.8°C – a wider range and a lower minimum rise.

Similarly, the new report is believed to predict that sea-levels will rise by between 28 centimetres and 43 cm by 2100, compared with the 2001 prediction of between 9 cm and 88 cm (2.54 cm = 1 inch).

But even these changes are regarded by some as a conservative estimates arrived at by consensus. "If the IPCC comes out with significantly less than 100 cm of sea level rise, there will be people in the science community saying we don't think that's a fair reflection of what we know," said Bob Corell, chairman of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, speaking to Associated Press.

Gold standard

The IPCC draws together hundreds of the world's leading experts on climate science, under the auspices of the World Meteorology Organization

(Excerpt) Read more at environment.newscientist.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: alarm; change; climate; climatechange; major

1 posted on 01/29/2007 9:54:50 AM PST by blam
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To: blam

Idiots! Let's scare people into global socialism.


2 posted on 01/29/2007 9:56:10 AM PST by AmericaUnited
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To: blam

Hey honey where is my tin foil hat? we are all DOOMED.


3 posted on 01/29/2007 9:56:36 AM PST by bikerman (Loud pipes save lives)
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To: blam

What about me?

4 posted on 01/29/2007 9:57:25 AM PST by frogjerk (REUTERS: We give smoke and mirrors a bad name)
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To: blam
Gee, the fact that every single person there is financially tied to this outcome doesn't make a difference I suppose...</s>
5 posted on 01/29/2007 9:58:01 AM PST by Abathar (Proudly catching hell for posting without reading the article since 2004)
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To: blam
"there is a 90% chance humans are responsible for climate change"

Ah, yes...the ol' scientific CHANCE.

6 posted on 01/29/2007 9:59:02 AM PST by Puppage (You may disagree with what I have to say, but I shall defend to your death my right to say it)
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To: blam

Nope, addressing terrorism is just too hard. We should run away and live in the dark so we can change the weather. Right. Let's get right on that one. ;-) Classic psychological displacement.


7 posted on 01/29/2007 9:59:32 AM PST by rhombus
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To: blam
There is NO chance we are responsible for climate change.

The reality of the situation is that the Earth is indeed slowly warming. We are on the uptick of a (broadly) sinusoidal oscillation that made Greenland green in the 11th Century and made the Thames freeze in the 17th. For the next 200 years or so it will get slightly warmer, and then it will slowly get colder again.

Greenhouse gases have very only a minor part to play in this: CO2 a still more minor part - and anthopogenic CO2 a truly infinitesmal part. Cycles in solar insolation (due to solar variability and the Milankovitch cycle) drive short- and medium- term climate change. The Water vapour greenhouse effect completely dwarfs any CO2 effect but is itself only a minor peturbation: insolation is what drives climate.

The "frame" in which insolation is acting at any one moment is determined by the truly long term movement of the continents: e.g. we always have Ice Ages when we have a landmass at a pole (we're in an interglacial period now). But insolation is what governs our climate on the human-historical timescale.

8 posted on 01/29/2007 9:59:33 AM PST by agere_contra
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To: blam
Major Climate Change Report Looks Set To Alarm Increase $$$$$$$$$
9 posted on 01/29/2007 9:59:46 AM PST by frogjerk (REUTERS: We give smoke and mirrors a bad name)
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To: blam

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/5076322.stm

http://www.iceagenow.com/Atlantic_Sea_Level_Falling.htm

http://www.iceagenow.com/Sea_levels_are_falling.htm

http://www.iceagenow.com/Falling_Sea_Levels.htm


10 posted on 01/29/2007 10:00:01 AM PST by Perdogg (Happy 2007)
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To: blam
#1: They are now admitting the rise in sea levels, if it does occur, will be less then half of what they predicted just six years ago. At that rate of change, by 2043, the sea levels will have dropped 27 inches!

#2: They can't predict the weather seven days in the future with more than a 50% of being correct. Now they want to tell us what will happen in 93 years! .... and Algore loves these guys......
11 posted on 01/29/2007 10:03:41 AM PST by MindBender26 (Having my own CAR-15 in Vietnam meant never having to say I was sorry......)
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To: agere_contra


Who is Monte Hieb and what are his qualifications?

Is this THE Monte Hieb the geologist?

Name: Monte Hieb
Email: mhieb@mines.state.wv.us
Title: Chief Engineer
Organization: WV Office of Miners Health Safety and Training
Address: 142 Industrial Drive
Oak Hill, WV 25901


12 posted on 01/29/2007 10:06:06 AM PST by Para-Ord.45
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To: blam

"there is a 90% chance humans are responsible for climate change"
no
what they meant to say was that they are 90% certain that humans are responsible for climate change.


13 posted on 01/29/2007 10:08:29 AM PST by Leftism is Mentally Deranged (Liberalism - Yuck!)
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To: blam

U.N. Panel to Project Climate Chaos

A U.N. climate panel report is expected to project climate chaos for the foreseeable future. A draft report based on work by 2,500 scientists and due for release on February 2 in Paris, forecasts that the future is likely to bring droughts, floods, rising temperatures, falling temperatures, heat waves, cold snaps, and other inconsistent weather phenomena.

“The pattern of instability that has plagued the planet for billions of years can be expected to continue,” says a report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The report urged universal adoption of the U.N.’s Kyoto Protocol, which, if universally adopted, is expected to slow the pace of man-made global warming by as much as one percent over the next century.

“Antarctica might melt or we could have another ice age if we don’t get full compliance with the Kyoto Protocol,” said UN spokesman, William Pucker. “Polar bears could drown. Penguins might freeze. People will go out without umbrellas and get caught in the rain. Some will take a jacket only to discover that it is not needed. Others will be chilly and wish they had worn a coat. A few will have forgotten their keys and find themselves locked out of their homes. I’m sorry to say that the future climate is too uncertain for us to be certain of anything other than uncertainty. This is why it is so important to take action now even if we cannot be certain of the outcome.”

In related news, an MIT study said there is enough geothermal heat seething below Earth’s hard rocky crust to help supply the United States with a significant fraction of the electricity it will need in the future, at competitive prices and with minimal environmental impact.

Rep. Edward Markey (D-Mass.) says he will introduce legislation aimed at blocking the exploitation of this geothermal resource. “Cheap, clean energy will only perpetuate a comfortable lifestyle,” said Markey. “It is suffering that purifies the soul. Americans need to learn to do without, to make sacrifices, not poke more holes into Mother Earth.”

read more...

http://www.azconservative.org/Semmens1.htm


14 posted on 01/29/2007 10:13:47 AM PST by John Semmens
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To: blam
The minimum predicted temperature and sea level rises will jump...

Uh-huh. Wake me up when beach-front property drops below mobile home parks.

15 posted on 01/29/2007 10:16:26 AM PST by randog (What the...?!)
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To: blam

Hmm. Two reports, only 6 years apart, with wildly different claims. Almost like the scientists haven't a clue what they are talking about, and are just making stuff up.


16 posted on 01/29/2007 10:22:42 AM PST by CharlesWayneCT
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To: John Semmens

H*ll. We're going to lose the war on terror anyway, the democrats will make sure of it. Europe will be a muslim state, the middle east will be run by radical islamic militants and they'll control the oil, and Russia will be overrun by muslims who will use the nuclear weapons to launch jihad on us all.

So what do I care if the world will be underwater in 100 years. God did it before, we can do it again ourselves. Anyway, what's the point in giving up our way of life to save the world, only to have it run by our enemies?


17 posted on 01/29/2007 10:26:07 AM PST by CharlesWayneCT
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To: CharlesWayneCT

It's the models. Most people have brain freeze when somebody says 'the model . . . ' and scientists tune out unless their funding proposal is on the line.


18 posted on 01/29/2007 10:27:55 AM PST by RightWhale (Repeal the law of the excluded middle)
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To: RightWhale

"Most people have brain freeze when somebody says 'the model . . . ' "

Just say "Elle Macpherson" and their brains will warm up again;)


19 posted on 01/29/2007 10:38:34 AM PST by Frank_2001
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To: blam

I knew it: it's those damned humans again.


20 posted on 01/29/2007 10:42:52 AM PST by ANGGAPO (LayteGulfBeachClub)
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To: John Semmens

Let Rep Markey lead the way.


21 posted on 01/29/2007 10:44:24 AM PST by rahbert
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To: blam
These wackos just keep trying to increase the numbers until they scare enough people into implementing their socialist utopia.
22 posted on 01/29/2007 10:47:42 AM PST by Always Right
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To: blam
"there is a 90% chance humans are responsible for climate change"

plus or minus 90%. Whose orphice did they pull that number out of? This 100% pure non-scientific bullshit.

23 posted on 01/29/2007 10:50:23 AM PST by Always Right
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To: Puppage
Ah, yes...the ol' scientific CHANCE.

Oddly, their mantra was always the debate was over. Saying there is only a 90% chance that man is responsible for global warming is actually a downgrade from the old rhetoric.

24 posted on 01/29/2007 10:53:18 AM PST by Always Right
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