Posted on 02/12/2007 6:43:36 AM PST by areafiftyone
MANCHESTER, N.H. - New Hampshire residents likely to vote in the Republican presidential primary a year from now think more highly of former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani than any of his rivals, a poll released Tuesday shows.
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Giuliani's net favorability rating — the proportion of people viewing him favorably minus the proportion viewing him unfavorably — was 56 percent, well ahead of Sen. John McCain (news, bio, voting record), 32 percent, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, 26 percent, in the University of New Hampshire poll for WMUR-TV in Manchester.
"He's the lesser-known candidate, but he has that rock star quality," poll director Andy Smith said of Giuliani. "He has a charisma that was built after 9-11."
This long before an election, political professionals pay more attention to favorability than voters' choices if they had to vote today. McCain and Giuliani were essentially tied at about 27 percent on that question among likely GOP primary voters, followed by Romney at 13 percent and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 9 percent.
The GOP portion of the telephone poll reached 311 likely voters from Thursday to Monday and had an error margin of plus or minus 5.6 percentage points.
Former Sen. John Edwards and Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama (news, bio, voting record) had net favorability ratings ranging from 61 percent to 55 percent, too close to be statistically significant.
When asked for whom they would vote, 35 percent of likely Democratic voters picked Clinton, 21 percent Obama and 15 percent Edwards. Eight percent chose former Vice President Al Gore, who is not running.
The Democratic portion of the phone poll reached 353 likely voters and had an error margin of plus or minus 5.2 percentage points.
Independents may vote in either primary, and 68 percent of them indicated they planned to vote in the Democratic primary compared to 32 percent leaning toward the GOP contest.
"This will hurt Republican candidates who try to appeal to more moderate, independent voters," Smith said.
((((POLL PING))))
Indeed, in one recent poll, majorities of Republicans who were informed of Giuliani’s views on social issues said that they were either minor issues or no issues at all; only 16% said that they wouldn't vote for him after being informed of these views.
In the online GOP Bloggers poll, Giuliani is consistently one of the few candidates to end up with a net positive acceptability rating. These internet denizens are well-informed, and overwhelmingly self-describe as conservative (78% self-describe as 7 or higher on a 10-scale of conservatism). If these people can support Rudy, anyone can.
Human Events, Is Giuliani the Republican Peyton Manning,
2/6/07
http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1780060/posts
It seems to me that unless we want a democrat to win the presidency in '08, we need to find a candidate that ALL republicans can get behind... Rudy is obviously not the right person.
We can't win if you siphon off the pro-life, pro-gun, and pro-marriage crowd. We've got to do better than Rudy if we have any intention of winning!
I would love to see what polls think of this rino in the south.
The pollsters are going to make a killing over the next two years.
Currently the polls are fairly high for him in the South. However, if and when he gets the nomination and the kid gloves of media come off, this support will plummet.
And it looks like we're going to see a repeat of the 2006 GOP purge.
Can't say I'm even surprised any more.
He is being propelled by name recognition and a leftist media. That will change soon enough.
Only 16%?????? That is huge. Say hello to President Hillary in a landslide and goodbye to America forever.
First off, I think Peyton IS a Republican, but if by "Giuliani, the Republican Peyton Manning" you mean overrated, smug, and stuck on himself, then yes, Giuliani is the Republican Peyton Manning.
i recall seeing him somewhere dressed in drag. that aint going to fly very well.
Do you remember the Reagan Democrats? Reagan got a lot of votes from Democrats (probably because he was a Democrat for a time) and he got a lot of votes from moderates.
If your average voter really knew his stances on social issues, they'd drop him like a red headed step-child!
Oh, please. You really need to go to charitable events a litte more often.
I've seen church members, priests, a mayor, and city councilmen dressed in drag for charitable events. It's a hoot and draw in people who wouldn't normally contribute relatively large sums of money to a charity.
Also, nearly ever Octoberfest in CT, the football players dressed in drag to raise money for new uniforms, etc.
So the candidate that 'everyone' must get behind must be a 100% social conservative. Good compromise.
And in a more recent poll, when social conservatives were informed about Giuliani's extreme positions on abortion, partial birth abortion, gun control and amnesty for illegal border invaders, 48% turned their backs on him.
Well, Rudy's got some questionable sexual orientation issues too. ;-)
Hey, I had a chance to slam both Manning AND Rudy...I couldn't pass it up!
See post #18
See post #18
I would (reluctantly) vote for Giuliani vs. Hillary in the general.
But now, I'll work against him. And the fact is, I could forgive Giuliani for bad positions one one or maybe even two major issues - but he's about 0 for 6 on social and gun rights issues.
And I'm a fiscal conservative first and a social conservative second...but Rudy's just not fitting the bill.
Its hard to know what to think about this snapshot of polling data at this stage in time.
If only these pollsters could show a trend, I could give them a little more credence. For example, if they could say where Rudy was in the NH polls 1000 years ago, 500 years ago, 100 years ago... and NOW this one with 1 year to go, I could form a much more informed opinion!
Average voters probably know his stances on social issues. That's why he's doing well, in many polls. The majority of republicans are conservative, and Rudy is the least conservative Republican who will probably run for President. The conservative vote splits, causing him to lead, in many states, with 30%-40%.
I think his moderate views will help him win the majority of the primaries, but he won't get the nomiation. During the convention, a candidate must receive a majority of votes to become the nominee, and the majority of the delegates won't vote for someone who is pro-choice, pro-gay marriage, and pro-gun control. The nomination will probably be won by McCain, Gingrich, or Romney.
A year from now? A year from now. A lot can change in one year in politics.
I love your over-eagerness. It is destined to burn out.
Just wait until the New Hampshire pro-lifers and gun people start working on Rudy. It won't be pretty, but I'll enjoy it (heh heh heh).
Congratulations on the Most Depressing Prediction of the Day.
"So the candidate that 'everyone' must get behind must be a 100% social conservative"
I shouldn't have said "everyone". I should have said "almost everyone".
There's always someone who's not going to vote for a candidate because of the color of their hair...
But we can't afford to give up even 5% of the base. Presidential elections tend to be way to close for that.
Not necessarily. Rudy has been the named partner in a major Houston law firm (albeit its New York office) for a few years now, i.e. building his southern creds.
Bracewell & Giuliani LLP
711 Louisiana Street, Suite 2300
Houston, Texas 77002-2770
He's tapping into Bush '41's Texas network.
In other words, Rudy loses 16 percent of the base. Which means he would lose the general election, since he is a pro-war candidate and moderates and centrist Dems are strongly anti-war.
Thanks for proving what conservative Freepers have been saying all along.
Gingrich, out of those three, is the most appealing.
Why? He's no WORSE than Rudy on personal life issues, and I'd argue slightly better since Newt never lived with gay friends or married his cousin.
And he's much more conservative on other issues.
At the convention, not all states allocate their votes bases on the percentage of the actual primary results. Some give all their votes to the winner, some don't. It is possible for a minority to win a nomination. They just never win the election.
Ah. So because he has business interests in Houston, that will convince social conservatives in South Carolina to vote for him.
Gotcha.
Newt is pro-life and pro-gun. For starters.
Yes, but Rudy has been representing liberal causes such as eminent domain through that law office. Don't think the southern conservatives are going to be tricked that easily.
This kind of makes you wonder if the New Hampshire primaries are open to democrats.
wait until the commercial comes out that rudy is anti-gun, anti-life, pro-amnesty followed by a caption of him dressed in drag. you can downplay these positions but they will hurt him.
Rudy will lose much more than 16% of the base in the GOP. He is very likely to lose 16% or more of the entire party.
That's my point. I SUPPORT Gingrich. I was pointing out that he, too has personal life/marriage issues but their no worse than Rudy's and Newt's other positions are FAR better.
In fact, I'm leaning towards Newt right now out of all of them, I still worry if he could beat Her Heinous or the Halfrican Candidate Osama-Obama.
Selective excerpting by a Hunterbot...how typical. You totally omitted the fact that Rudy is tapping into Papa Bush's network, i.e. more than just southern business interests.
And if you think Hunter has a chance of being the GOP nominee, you better put down the crack pipe and check yourself into rehab.
YOU ARE THE ONE who made the claim. Not me.
And Rudy tapping into Bush 41's network? The same Bush 41 who was a one-term president who ran left and lost the White House to a nondescript governor who was DOA earlier in the year? Boy, that makes me feel warm and fuzzy.
The Rudy boosters are clutching at straws now.
You do understand that the profile of a Reagan Democrat is a socially conservative Democrat right?
Nonetheless, you always make me laugh. I'm sure a lot of Reagan Democrats crossed over because Reagan was once a Democrat, 30 years before he ran.
This is the kind of Rudy Two-Step we've come to expect from you guys.
Make some kind of claim that proves how strong Rudy is - that does the opposite.
And then insult those supporting a principled conservative because we haven't sold out like you have.
I haven't committed to voting for Rudy (I will in the general election if he is the GOP nominee).
Clutch at straws? You're funny. This coming from someone who calls himself "dirtboy" and thinks Hunter stands a chance.
The nominee cannot afford to lose ANY of the party. It will be very difficult to pick up votes in the middle.
Dear Peach,
The Gallup poll quoted in another thread shows 18% definitely not voting for him, and another 25% with a reduced likelihood of voting for him.
One can conclude that Mr. Giuliani would easily lose 20% (or perhaps much more) of the folks who nearly always vote Republican, in the general election.
That translates to somewhere around 10,000,000 votes.
Of course, even your 16% translates to roughly 8 million votes.
If anyone thinks that Mr. Giuliani can win the general election while losing 8 - 10 million votes from the base, that individual is self-deluded.
sitetest
Ah, and now the last refuge of scoundrels. Making an issue of my screen name. Lame, lame, lame.
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