Skip to comments.Health care spending seen doubling in 10 years
Posted on 02/20/2007 10:06:23 PM PST by seacapn
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. spending on prescription drugs, hospital care and other health services is expected to double to $4.1 trillion over the next decade, up from $2.1 trillion in 2006, a government report released on Wednesday found.
Despite relative stability in recent years, nearly 20 cents of every dollar spent in 10 years will go toward health care, National Health Statistics Group economists said in their projections looking at 2006 to 2016.
Last year's health spending should make up about 16 cents for every dollar spent, they wrote in the journal Health Affairs.
Lead author John Poisal told reporters a major factor was an aging population as the "leading edge of the baby boom generation becomes eligible for Medicare," the nation's insurance program for those age 65 and older.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...
Well, time to rebalance the portfolio to put money in health care sector. Med devices, assisted living and rehab centers. I would avoid pharma. In 15 years I will shift into funeral homes and clean up.
Invest in United Healthcare: symbol UNH
Doubling as a percentage of GDP, from about 17% now to 34% of GDP in 10 years? Unlikely.
Doubling in nominal USDollars, in 10 years would amount to approximately 7.2% in healthcare "inflation" (cost increase) rate, which is certainly higher than "official" average annual cost of living rate increases of about 2.5%-3.5%, but slower than both "official" and unofficial current healthcare (really insurance premiums) annual rate increases of 12%-22% - which means that they expect healthcare cost increases to slow down from unsustainable current rates.
Then, in inflation-adjusted USDollars it would mean that "real" healthcare cost increases will be "only" about 4% annually - not great but certainly a lot slower than they are now.
Third party payment systems have disconnected consumers from pricing in healthcare. You can't even get real prices from most hospitals and doctors.
Want to see what happens to healthcare prices when providers compete for non-insurance consumer dollars? Look at vision correction surgury; prices have dropped by 70% or more in 5 years.
Also, keep in mind that 65% of all healthcare in the US is currently provided by the Government, mostly through 3rd party payors.
Call me stupid, but I can not see how anything can justify a 100% increase in medical prices over a decade. This
Reread it, they are not calling for a 100% increase in medical prices, although I would not be surprised to see that happen. They are saying that health care will take 20% of each dollar spent versus 16% of each dollar now. The doubling is in total expenditures for medical, obviously they think we will be spending a vastly larger total amount in ten years.
And that's just the liability insurance.
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