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Numerical Models, Integrated Circuits and Global Warming Theory
American Thinker ^ | February 28, 2007 | Jerome J. Schmitt

Posted on 02/28/2007 8:25:29 AM PST by Tolik

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1 posted on 02/28/2007 8:25:31 AM PST by Tolik
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To: Tolik; Killing Time; Beowulf; Mr. Peabody; RW_Whacko; honolulugal; SideoutFred; Ole Okie; ...


FReepmail me to get on or off
Click on POGW graphic for full GW rundown




Wow...
2 posted on 02/28/2007 8:27:42 AM PST by xcamel (Press to Test, Release to Detonate)
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To: xcamel; Tolerance Sucks Rocks

Global Warming ping


3 posted on 02/28/2007 8:28:08 AM PST by Tolik
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To: Tolik

Excellent article.


4 posted on 02/28/2007 8:31:42 AM PST by listenhillary (You can lead a man to reason, but you can't make him think)
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To: Tolik
Although based on scientific "first principles", complex numerical models inevitably require simplifications, judgment calls, and correction factors.

As a scientist, we have a name for this. It's called a WAG.

That's a wild-a$$ guess, for those of your in Rio Linda.

5 posted on 02/28/2007 8:33:12 AM PST by facedown (Armed in the Heartland)
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To: All
In case you missed it : Skeptics and Deniers of Global Warming. Its not a settled science. Debate continues. 10 part series
6 posted on 02/28/2007 8:33:57 AM PST by Tolik
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To: facedown

Nope, this is scientific so it is a SWAG.


7 posted on 02/28/2007 8:40:05 AM PST by Bob Buchholz
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To: facedown
As a scientist, we have a name for this. It's called a WAG.

And yet this WAG is making daily headlines in papers across the world in an attempt to create a global tax and a powerful world government bureaucracy.

8 posted on 02/28/2007 8:45:38 AM PST by Always Right
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To: Tolik

Just don't build too close to the coast and dress appropriately for the weather. That should get a person by.


9 posted on 02/28/2007 8:46:40 AM PST by Fitzcarraldo (If the Moon didn't exist, people would have traveled to Mars by now.)
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To: Tolik
Andrew Grove PhD is a giant in the history of semiconductors. A founder of Intel, Grove famously presided as CEO over its enormous growth during the 1980s and 1990s. Few realize that his academic training is as a Chemical Engineer, not an Electrical Engineer.

Yup. My electronics engineering training has been virtually no help in my career in semiconductor processing.

10 posted on 02/28/2007 8:47:22 AM PST by null and void (Let's play 6 of global warming...)
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To: Bob Buchholz; facedown; Always Right

WAG the dog?

(Someone had to say it)...


11 posted on 02/28/2007 8:49:01 AM PST by null and void (Let's play 6 of global warming...)
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To: facedown
It's called a WAG

I can never remember which is more accurate. Is a WAG more accurate than a ROM? I think a ROM would be considerably more accurate than a WAG.

12 posted on 02/28/2007 9:03:25 AM PST by MosesKnows
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To: Tolik

Computational sciences have given new life to countless careers that would otherwise have been converted to used car sales.


13 posted on 02/28/2007 9:06:49 AM PST by RightWhale (300 miles north of Big Wild Life)
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To: Tolik

Thomas Sowell's first job as an economist after graduating from Harvard was working for AT&T making economic predictions, using mathematical models. His boss showed him were the previous models (stacks of punch cards) where kept, so he could use them as a starting point. Young Thomas says "Oh, great, then we can see how well we've done!" His boss's reaction made it clear that he was *never* to bring up that idea again.

Actually, regression analysis allows one to place reliable bounds on the accuracy of a model, like when astronomers say that there is a 1 in 45,000 chance of a certain asteriod striking earth in 2036 (or whatever).

The IPCC seems to be paying homage to notion of error bounds by saying that there is a 90% chance of some {poorly defined unfavorable} event. What the author of this piece is talking about is what is known as validation. Historical data is perfectly good for validating a model, provided you can establish *all* the relevant input parameters and their associated uncertainties. I am personally unimpressed by anything I've read or seen about global warming to date. The alarmist scenarios are just too convenient for the politcal Left.


14 posted on 02/28/2007 9:19:06 AM PST by Lonesome in Massachussets (When I search out the massed wheeling circles of the stars, my feet no longer touch the earth)
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To: Tolik

Ping to read when I'm having trouble sleeping.....


15 posted on 02/28/2007 9:28:33 AM PST by CharlesWayneCT
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To: nnn0jeh

ping


16 posted on 02/28/2007 9:39:04 AM PST by kalee (Tthe offences we give, we write in the dust; Those we take, we write in marble. JHuett)
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To: Tolik

Counterpoint: "We don't have time to wait, we must act now."

Read this small piece from today's Tennessean by Beverly Keel the celebrity columnist for Gore's views yesterday:

http://tennessean.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070228/NEWS01/702280434


17 posted on 02/28/2007 9:41:36 AM PST by Old Professer (The critic writes with rapier pen, dips it twice, and writes again.)
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To: Tolik

bookmarked


18 posted on 02/28/2007 9:48:32 AM PST by chaosagent (Remember, no matter how you slice it, forbidden fruit still tastes the sweetest!)
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To: Tolik

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_theory

It would seem to me that chaos theory would suggest that it is impossible to predict with any degree of certainty any claims of future global warming specificially due to man. Too many variables, too many assumptions or simplifications/etc. in variables.


19 posted on 02/28/2007 9:52:49 AM PST by sportutegrl (This thread is useless without pix.)
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To: MosesKnows
Yes, rough order-of-magnitude is clearly better than a wild-assed-guess.

As a scientist who has often used modeling in research, I concur that models have to be regarded with great suspicion -- unless there is LOTS of broad empirical data to back it up. It reminds me of the old saying about Magnetohydrodynamics calculations:

"It takes a genius to get computational results from these equations -- and a fool to believe them."

20 posted on 02/28/2007 10:08:03 AM PST by expatpat
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