I can never remember which is more accurate. Is a WAG more accurate than a ROM? I think a ROM would be considerably more accurate than a WAG.
As a scientist who has often used modeling in research, I concur that models have to be regarded with great suspicion -- unless there is LOTS of broad empirical data to back it up. It reminds me of the old saying about Magnetohydrodynamics calculations:
"It takes a genius to get computational results from these equations -- and a fool to believe them."