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To: Lonesome in Massachussets

You missed the point. I didn't say that models inferred from historical data are necessarily unreliable. I said it is unsurprising, and no indication of reliability, that a model fits data from which it was inferred. One should infer reliability only if the validating predictions are independent of the model.


28 posted on 02/28/2007 12:04:04 PM PST by edsheppa
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To: edsheppa

Not true. The internal consistency of the historical data just needs to be available. Astronomers know pretty well how accurate their predictions are, because they know how good their observations are. Calibrations are just a special kind of historical data, selected to allow low variance estimates.

I agree, models are less reliable outside the range of inputs over which they are validated. Anyone who understands modeling and statistical technique must be hightly skeptical of the entire Global Warming ideology.


35 posted on 02/28/2007 2:52:04 PM PST by Lonesome in Massachussets (When I search out the massed wheeling circles of the stars, my feet no longer touch the earth)
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