Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

To: edsheppa

Not true. The internal consistency of the historical data just needs to be available. Astronomers know pretty well how accurate their predictions are, because they know how good their observations are. Calibrations are just a special kind of historical data, selected to allow low variance estimates.

I agree, models are less reliable outside the range of inputs over which they are validated. Anyone who understands modeling and statistical technique must be hightly skeptical of the entire Global Warming ideology.


35 posted on 02/28/2007 2:52:04 PM PST by Lonesome in Massachussets (When I search out the massed wheeling circles of the stars, my feet no longer touch the earth)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies ]


To: Lonesome in Massachussets
OK, then show me. Here's 45 years of historical data. C and T are observed (I've added a little random measurement error). Make a model that explains T. Then we'll see how well it does against the underlying system that produced the data over the next 50 or 100 years.
Year C T Year C T Year C T
1956 100.00 20.86 1971 115.98 22.25 1986 134.84 24.06
1957 100.75 20.85 1972 117.11 22.41 1987 135.91 24.31
1958 101.99 20.81 1973 118.45 22.66 1988 137.93 24.40
1959 103.09 21.19 1974 120.03 22.54 1989 138.83 24.76
1960 104.17 21.16 1975 121.05 22.87 1990 140.36 24.70
1961 104.52 21.05 1976 122.19 22.67 1991 141.57 25.06
1962 106.31 21.35 1977 123.58 23.11 1992 142.91 24.98
1963 107.04 21.46 1978 124.35 23.05 1993 144.24 25.12
1964 108.02 21.69 1979 125.09 23.32 1994 145.48 25.38
1965 109.64 21.66 1980 126.82 23.60 1995 147.49 25.29
1966 110.57 21.70 1981 128.73 23.53 1996 148.62 25.55
1967 111.61 21.90 1982 129.15 23.80 1997 150.86 25.79
1968 112.54 21.92 1983 131.07 23.85 1998 151.85 25.95
1969 113.70 22.08 1984 132.01 23.93 1999 153.78 26.22
1970 114.87 22.36 1985 133.36 23.92 2000 155.17 26.03

40 posted on 02/28/2007 5:29:00 PM PST by edsheppa
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 35 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson