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Giuliani Can't Win the General Election
The Sierra Times ^ | 03/07/2007 | John Bender

Posted on 03/07/2007 4:32:54 AM PST by Verax

Giuliani Can't Win the General Election
John Bender

Rudy Giuliani can’t win the general election. No matter how much some people in the Republican Party wish he could, he can’t and here’s why.

There is about 30% of the voting public in each camp who vote for the party no matter what. The Republicans have so-called conservatives who would vote for Arlen Specter rather than Thomas Jefferson, because Specter is a Republican and Jefferson was a Democrat. On the Democrat side, they have a group who would vote for Zell Miller rather than Lincoln Chafee, because Miller is a Democrat and Chafee is a Republican.

Neither of these groups have any political clout in the general election. They are irrelevant to the political debate.

Neither party, nor any politician, has to work to get their vote. Consequently, their issues are of no concern to either party.

The battle in every election is to get out the vote of people who lean toward a party or candidate, and to get the vote of issue voters. The 40% or so of voters who either switch their vote from party to party, or who withhold their vote, when dissatisfied, are the ones politicians have to court and motivate in any general election.

Neither the unmovable Republicans nor the unmovable Democrats are of any real interest to the respective parties. Those votes are there and counted before the polls ever open. The parties and individual politicians fight for and court the other 40% of the voters.

Rove knows this and spoke about it after the 2000 election and adjusted his campaign strategy in the 2004 election accordingly. In 2000 Evangelicals didn’t turn out in their customary numbers and almost cost Bush the election. Rove was determined to change that and said so more than once between 2000 and 2004. In 2004, Rove made it a point to go after the Evangelical vote, including an unprecedented heavy Republican push in the nation’s Black churches.

Evangelicals and other Christians responded by getting out and voting for Bush. This included a record 16% of the Black vote in Ohio, just about all of which came from the Black churches because of social issues like abortion, gay marriage, etc.

That 16% of the Black vote was not only almost double the percentage of Black votes the Republican historically gets in presidential elections, it was more than double the Black vote Bush got in Ohio in 2000. The increase was also more than Bush’s margin of victory in Ohio. It gave him the election. Without the Black vote Bush would have lost Ohio and its 20 Electoral votes. Take those twenty votes from Bush and give them to Kerry and you have President Kerry no matter how Florida voted.

In fact, remove the increase in the Evangelical turnout nationally; and it is impossible for Bush to have won a second term. Rove worked on pushing those issues that motivate Evangelicals and it gave Bush a second term.

If the party again removes the Evangelicals who stayed home in 2000, PLUS some of the other social conservatives, some of the Second Amendment voters, and some of the defend the borders voters, there is no way one can come up with a GOP win in 2008.

The party isn’t going to attract enough pro-abortion, pro-gay marriage, pro-open borders, to offset the loss from the above mentioned groups. It just isn’t going to happen.

Now, some in the 30% who are unmovable Republican voters are happy the party has moved to the Left and wish it would move a little farther Left. Others don’t like the slide to the Left, but are so locked into the party they will accept the slide, vote a straight ticket and hope for a better candidate in the next election.

Those in the second category, they’d like a more conservative candidate, but will vote for whoever gets the GOP nomination, are actually helping assure that they will never get what they want in a candidate.

They are not helping get a more conservative candidate because they come right out and say they will vote for ANYBODY who the party nominates. They are making themselves irrelevant. Why should the party try to please them? They are going to vote for the party no matter what. They are telling the party to ignore them.

The people who make the party earn their vote are the ones who can push the party back to the Right. They are the ones that the politicians have to please.

Don’t be fooled by the Republican establishment’s mantra that someone is too conservative to win. They said the same thing about Reagan. Reagan twice showed that attracting social conservatives and fiscal conservatives produces landslide victories.

The Republican establishment doesn’t like conservatives. They never liked Reagan. They didn’t want the people to believe he would win in the general election. In 1976 Ford’s Chief of Staff called Reaganites “right wing nuts”, a term that also pops up in several Ford internal campaign memos from that year.

In 1980 Bush the Elder said Reagan was an extremist and that his economic policies were “voodoo economics” that could never work in the real world.

None of this was true then and it isn’t true now.

There are now four conservatives in the race for the Republican nomination; Rep. Ron Paul, Rep. Duncan Hunter, Governor Jim Gilmore, and Rep. Tom Tancredo. Any one of these gentlemen could beat Hillary or Obama in the general election. Giuliani can’t do it.

The Rockefeller Republicans, who are the party bosses, and the Doubting Thomas Republicans who are pushing for Giuliani’s nomination are going to hand the election to the Democrats if they succeed in nominating Giuliani rather than a conservative. It’s up to the party’s base to stop that from happening.

The only real choice for the anybody-but-a-Democrat voters is to work to make sure one of the conservatives gets the nomination or accept the fact that they helped put a Democrat in the White House in 08.

"Published originally at www.EtherZone.com : republication allowed with this notice and hyperlink intact."

John Bender is a freelance writer living in Dallas, Texas. He is a past Ether Zone contributor.

John Bender can be reached at: jbender@columnist.com



TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: giuliani
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1 posted on 03/07/2007 4:32:56 AM PST by Verax
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To: Verax

I disagree. The writer overestimates the number of conservatives who will stay home and severely underestimates the number of independents and moderates who will vote for Rudy.

I think Rudy takes NY, all or most of the south, maybe CA, and wins it all.


2 posted on 03/07/2007 4:37:36 AM PST by zook
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To: Verax
"Giuliani Can't Win the General Election"

wrong ...
3 posted on 03/07/2007 4:41:57 AM PST by mcg2000 (Ann Coulter: The Perverted Purveyor of Political Pornography)
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To: Verax

Those in the second category, they’d like a more conservative candidate, but will vote for whoever gets the GOP nomination, are actually helping assure that they will never get what they want in a candidate.


The writer nailed it. If conservatives put party over principle, they will be to the GOP what the blacks are to the Dems.


4 posted on 03/07/2007 4:42:07 AM PST by freedomfiter2 (Duncan Hunter: pro-life, pro-2nd Amendment, pro-border control, pro-family)
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To: Verax

Next year we'll all be looking at a completely different picture. There's a long road ahead, kick back and relax and watch the show.


5 posted on 03/07/2007 4:43:01 AM PST by rockinqsranch (Dems, Libs, Socialists...call 'em what you will...They ALL have fairies livin' in their trees.)
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To: Verax

He can win a popularity contest but he'll crash and burn when the issues begin to get some discussion.


6 posted on 03/07/2007 4:43:23 AM PST by cripplecreek (Peace without victory is a temporary illusion.)
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To: Verax
The Rudy PIMPS are trying to shut up all conservatives one year before the primaries because they want the voters to have only two choices, a democrat or a democrat with an R by ITS name.
Either way they will have a far left winger as POTUS.
7 posted on 03/07/2007 4:43:48 AM PST by HuntsvilleTxVeteran (Remember the Alamo, Goliad and WACO, It is Time for a new San Jacinto)
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To: Verax

Question.... do you all think that Newt Gingrich could be added to the "conservative" winners list if he runs?


8 posted on 03/07/2007 4:44:47 AM PST by Apple Pan Dowdy (... as American as Apple Pie)
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To: rockinqsranch
#5

Those of us who want to see something other than the hand-picked CFR candidate can't afford to kick-back 'til then.

9 posted on 03/07/2007 4:46:29 AM PST by Verax ("Colored people are like human weeds and are to be exterminated - Planned Parenthood President,")
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To: mcg2000

Giuliani cant win the general electon. CORRECT...


10 posted on 03/07/2007 4:48:27 AM PST by HANG THE EXPENSE (Defeat liberalism, its the right thing to do for America.)
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To: Verax
I don't believe and hope he doesn't, win the Republican nod....I do believe he can and will win in the general election, if given the chance...

I personally, will do everything I can to make sure Giuliani does not win in the primaries.....
11 posted on 03/07/2007 4:50:19 AM PST by Vaquero ("An armed society is a polite society" Robert A. Heinlein)
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To: sauropod

review


12 posted on 03/07/2007 4:50:46 AM PST by sauropod ("An intelligent man is sometimes forced to be drunk to spend time with his fools." Ernest Hemingway)
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To: zook

Couldn't agree with you more....Go Rudy!


13 posted on 03/07/2007 4:51:14 AM PST by auto power
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To: Apple Pan Dowdy

Gingrich made a lot of enemies on the left as Speaker, don't see him ever overcoming that. Need new blood.


14 posted on 03/07/2007 4:51:44 AM PST by Verax ("Colored people are like human weeds and are to be exterminated - Planned Parenthood President,")
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To: Verax
I think he'll have more trouble winning the nomination than he would have in a general election.....
15 posted on 03/07/2007 4:52:36 AM PST by b4its2late (Liberalism is a hollow log and a mental disorder.)
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To: Verax

History is an interesting study....... Things change over the course of time and what was the status quo in the past isn't necessarily the status quo of today. One item [the WOT] may well be the driving factor to throw out his so called locked in voter patterns...... we'll see as the primary and general evolves.


16 posted on 03/07/2007 4:54:31 AM PST by deport ( Credentials, Credentials, Credentials...... Who's got Credentials?..........Cue Spooky Music...)
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To: zook

I didn't vote for Specter (I voted 3rd party), but I would vote for Rudy.


17 posted on 03/07/2007 4:55:44 AM PST by ILikeFriedman
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To: zook
I agree... I think Rudy probably could win the general election, it's the Republican primary which he will (thankfully) have trouble with.

Personally I think he should be running as a Democrat.

18 posted on 03/07/2007 4:55:47 AM PST by tcostell (MOLON LABE)
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To: Verax; WFTR; Congressman Billybob
Rove knows this and spoke about it after the 2000 election and adjusted his campaign strategy in the 2004 election accordingly. In 2000 Evangelicals didn’t turn out in their customary numbers and almost cost Bush the election. Rove was determined to change that and said so more than once between 2000 and 2004. In 2004, Rove made it a point to go after the Evangelical vote, including an unprecedented heavy Republican push in the nation’s Black churches. Evangelicals and other Christians responded by getting out and voting for Bush.

All true.

But politics is not static, and it's not December 2004, it's February 2007.

I like Socons. I, personally, am not afraid of a Socon governing majority.

But the bulk of the swing vote, which doesn't really belong to either side, is either appalled by, or terrified of, Dobsonites, Schiavo-savers, and free exercisers.

The fault lies on both sides, but whose "fault" this situation is doesn't matter.

What matters is that the Socon tag on a Presidential candidate in 2008 is poison.

The Rove "permanent majority" strategy assumed two things. First, that he could add in Socon nonvoters (who were the rightmost 10% of Socons) without disturbing existing voters, and, second, that he could recruit and retain those Socons by seeming to promise them things which he and Bush had no intention of delivering. (I don't think the White House's behavior reflects a very high opinion of their new Socon voters)

In my opinion, this strategy is now in ruins. It sufficed to re-elect Bush (which, to be fair, was what Rove was hired to do), but it won't allow forward movement because the "new Socon voter" wants to be paid now, and the old Republican voters won't pay up, because they recognize that their center-right neighbors and leaners will never, never agree to an explicitly Socon President who will deliver the goods.

The people who keep posting pictures of Rudy in drag want to McGovernize first the process, then the party.

I don't think they are as numerous, or as active, as they seem to feel they are. But we'll see in the primaries.

That's why, as they say, they play the games.

19 posted on 03/07/2007 5:00:44 AM PST by Jim Noble
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To: Verax
I agree. A lot of moderate Republicans look on religious voters - evangelicals and Catholics like the crazy aunt best locked up in the basement. But the truth is the GOP can't win without them. The drubbing the GOP received last fall is in no small part due to the fact the GOP scorned these voters. And the Mark Foley fallout was damaging in that it looked like the party didn't care about the values important to these voters. By nominating a liberal as its presidential candidate, the GOP would be sending them the same message: get lost. What do you think will happen in November 2008 if they take that message to heart? The GOP simply can't win an election without the Values Voters.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

20 posted on 03/07/2007 5:01:16 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: b4its2late

It's possible he'll sizzle out like Howard Dean did once more people understand that he is a democrat in republican clothing. But, if he does make it to the general election, expect to get this letter below from Hillary Rodman.

Dear RINO Rudy Supporters,

I want to thank you for your wonderful support in helping me to get elected POTUS. Bill and I are so thrilled to be back in the White House again. Your active support for Rudy, and getting him nominated, was the key to me winning. Without your help Bill and I would not be here today.

Affectionately Yours,

President Hillary Rodman

P.S. I plan to nominate Rudy to the Supreme Court as soon as there is a vacancy. He will help us tilt the court back in our favor to assure that millions more unborn babies will never see the light of day. After all, it's every woman's right!

P.S.S. As you recall, my campaign slogan was, "We're Going to Take Things Away From You on Behalf of the Common Good" ALL YOUR POSSESIONS BELONG TO ME---YEEHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!


21 posted on 03/07/2007 5:01:23 AM PST by dmw (Aren't you glad you use common sense, don't you wish everybody did?)
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To: Verax
Rudy--------------------Hillary!

Anti-Gun----------------Anti-Gun
Pro-Abortion------------Pro-Abortion
Clinton Policy----------Clinton Policy
Gay-Loving--------------Gay-Loving
Looks awful in a dress---Ditto

I could go on but the Rudy-Lickers will continue to abandon the constitution and stab the unborn in the back no matter what. I guess they love a man in drag.

If he gets the nomination I'm staying home for the first time ever or voting libertarian for the first time ever.

It won't make a nickel's worth of difference who wins.

22 posted on 03/07/2007 5:02:04 AM PST by LibKill (Rudy-Lickers betray the Constitution)
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To: goldstategop
A lot of moderate Republicans look on religious voters - evangelicals and Catholics like the crazy aunt best locked up in the basement. But the truth is the GOP can't win without them.

The question before the house is, can the GOP win with them when the choice is not George Bush v. John Kerry?

Everything hangs on the answer to that question.

23 posted on 03/07/2007 5:05:21 AM PST by Jim Noble
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To: zook
The writer overestimates the number of conservatives who will stay home and severely underestimates the number of independents and moderates who will vote for Rudy.

I agree.

24 posted on 03/07/2007 5:08:03 AM PST by proud American in Canada ("We can, and we will prevail.")
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To: LibKill
Good, stay home like you did last time. You'll have so many more millions of abortions under Hilary, Obama or any other democrat your head will spin. Liberal left wing democrat Congress, President AND Supreme Court.

So stay home and watch the fetuses pile up dead, and you can be so happy you kept the republicans out of power. I get so sick of this nonsense. And the democrats will dismantle the military and CIA, aid our enemies and abandon our allies. But make sure you stay home.

25 posted on 03/07/2007 5:08:55 AM PST by Williams
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To: Williams
I voted a straight Republican ticket last time.

And that is the last time. 30 years of blind loyalty are enough, especially if the party runs Rudy.

26 posted on 03/07/2007 5:10:02 AM PST by LibKill (Rudy-Lickers LOVE a man in drag!)
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To: cripplecreek
He can win a popularity contest

Well, IMHO, that's pretty much what American politics has become. How else can Hitlery be the leading democrat, because of all the laws shes passed? I can't think of one thing shes done while senator.

Most people are to damn lazy to do the work it takes to really see what each candidate stands for. They would rather sit back & let Katie Couric tell them how to feel. Again, just my opinion.

27 posted on 03/07/2007 5:10:37 AM PST by Puppage (You may disagree with what I have to say, but I shall defend to your death my right to say it)
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To: zook
"I think Rudy takes NY, all or most of the south, maybe CA, and wins it all."

LOL!

Oh, yes. The South has a long history of voting in lockstep with New York. (/s)

28 posted on 03/07/2007 5:11:10 AM PST by Enosh ()
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To: Verax

Very well said, the republican establishment and their cronies will try to tell us that the only important thing is to beat hillery. Then try to scare us into believing that we have to pander to the left in order to win and in so doing electing somebody who is just as bad as her.
Duncan Hunter, Ron Paul, Tom Tancredo(sp?), Fred Thompson, and Newt are our best hopes for a candidate that will fire up the conservative base and win a general election.
I just cant see supporting a candidate that has demonstrated that he is pro-gay, pro-abort, anti-gun dresses in drag and has fooled around on not one but 2 wives and done so blatantly with no regard for the institution of marriage or to the office that he was elected to. If he did winhe would be a Republican Bill Clinton just waiting to happen.
We lost the last election because we didn't come out strong on borders and illegal immigration, but we still had the traditional values voters and pro life and pro 2nd amendment people on our side and just barley lost in a lot of places because our base wasn't motivated. So what so now the establishment people are trying to give us some one who says he is strong on borders and the WOT, well whoopee! He is essentially a hillery with different genitals and has said as much himself, so we will pick him and lose all the pro lifers, 2nd amendment and values voters will stay home and we will lose by a huge margin and leave the democrats in complete power.


29 posted on 03/07/2007 5:11:24 AM PST by Texas Patriot (Remember.... The Alamo, never forget HOORAHH!!!!!)
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To: freedomfiter2

True, but the conservative candidate most would support is un-electable.


30 posted on 03/07/2007 5:11:41 AM PST by ffusco (Maecilius Fuscus,Governor of Longovicium , Manchester, England. 238-244 AD)
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To: Enosh

C'mon, man! You think they'll vote for Hillary or Obama?
Get real!

Rudy takes the south in a NY minute.


31 posted on 03/07/2007 5:13:48 AM PST by zook
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To: ffusco

True, but the conservative candidate most would support is un-electable.


It's far better to support an un-electable conservative than an un-electable liberal.


32 posted on 03/07/2007 5:15:07 AM PST by freedomfiter2 (Duncan Hunter: pro-life, pro-2nd Amendment, pro-border control, pro-family)
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To: LibKill

Rudy is a hero of 9-11 and cleaning up New York. I don't agree with his liberal side either, but he has promised to appoint Conservative judges. That is what matters. The democrats will appoint 9 Ruth Bader Ginzbergs. This is reality.


33 posted on 03/07/2007 5:15:39 AM PST by Williams
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To: Verax

"syllogism" a crafty argument. Rudy wins because he will be the anti beast. He will be the candidate who wants to fight the WOT and she will be the candidate who wants to surrender. By Nov 08 that will be very clear.


34 posted on 03/07/2007 5:16:18 AM PST by jmaroneps37 (google the "Verses of the Sword" to understand our Islamist enemies.)
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To: zook
You're dreaming. Rudy looses the South...big time. He'd have a shot in VA and FL, but that's it.

From the article...If the party again removes the Evangelicals who stayed home in 2000, PLUS some of the other social conservatives, some of the Second Amendment voters, and some of the defend the borders voters, there is no way one can come up with a GOP win in 2008.

That's absolutely correct. And if you don't think Christian Conservatives will stay home rather than vote for a liberal just ask George H.W. Bush what he liked best about his second term.

35 posted on 03/07/2007 5:18:59 AM PST by pgkdan (Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions - G.K. Chesterton)
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To: zook

The South will prevent Rudy from getting anywhere near the general election, I hope.


36 posted on 03/07/2007 5:20:58 AM PST by Enosh ()
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To: zook

I will not under any circumstances vote for Rino Rudy, I will go third party first.


37 posted on 03/07/2007 5:22:01 AM PST by Hydroshock (Duncan Hunter For President, checkout gohunter08.com.)
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To: pgkdan

1. The south will not vote for Hillary or Obama.
2. With all that supposed evangelical help, Bush barely squeeked by in 04.

The middle will more than make up for the evangelicals who sit on their hands at home waiting for the perfect candidate.


38 posted on 03/07/2007 5:22:45 AM PST by zook
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To: freedomfiter2
#32 I agree freedomfiter2 - that's why I created this illustration...


39 posted on 03/07/2007 5:23:12 AM PST by Verax ("Colored people are like human weeds and are to be exterminated - Planned Parenthood President,")
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To: Texas Patriot; ffusco
a candidate that will fire up the conservative base and win a general election

That's the Rove theory.

I think he's dead wrong. I think that, except for the unrepeatable particular circumstance of November 2004, that a fired-up conservative base loses 9 times out of 10.

The "fired up base" around here thinks they are 65% of the population when they are 30% at most, and they show no concept of how to get the 21% of non-fired up, non-base voters they need to win.

40 posted on 03/07/2007 5:23:49 AM PST by Jim Noble
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To: Verax

correction, that was meant for ffusco ;)


41 posted on 03/07/2007 5:24:39 AM PST by Verax ("Colored people are like human weeds and are to be exterminated - Planned Parenthood President,")
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To: Williams

you really think if Rudy gets in power he would overturn "roe V wade" like he would see the chance with a democratic controlled congress!!!! He says that for that very reason he know that he will never see a bill he could sign that would come close to that!


42 posted on 03/07/2007 5:25:10 AM PST by Texas Patriot (Remember.... The Alamo, never forget HOORAHH!!!!!)
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To: Enosh

Rudy just rocked South Carolina with that straw poll showing. The south today is much more savy than some of you folks think. They won't vote for Hillary, they won't vote for Obama. Y'all gonna be right su'prised at Rudy's southern support.


43 posted on 03/07/2007 5:25:13 AM PST by zook
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To: Verax

If you could make Ron Paul the GOP nominee by waving a magic wand, what percentage of the popular vote do you believe he would get under the most favorable possible circumstances?


44 posted on 03/07/2007 5:25:47 AM PST by Jim Noble
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To: Hydroshock

Whatever, man. Have a nice Hillary.


45 posted on 03/07/2007 5:26:36 AM PST by zook
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To: zook

no they will just stay home and not vote out of disgust


46 posted on 03/07/2007 5:27:09 AM PST by Texas Patriot (Remember.... The Alamo, never forget HOORAHH!!!!!)
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To: Verax
Who does he think can?
Just another stupid hit peice.
47 posted on 03/07/2007 5:27:12 AM PST by Fawn (http://www.hartzvictims.org/)
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To: ffusco

thats what they said about Regan!!!! he was unelectable!! both times!!


48 posted on 03/07/2007 5:28:50 AM PST by Texas Patriot (Remember.... The Alamo, never forget HOORAHH!!!!!)
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To: zook
They won't vote for Hillary, they won't vote for Obama.

Please listen carefully this time:

P  r  i  m  a  r  i  e  s

49 posted on 03/07/2007 5:28:52 AM PST by Enosh ()
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To: zook

Wrong. I have no duty to vote for a liberal just because he is a republican. It is hte repubicans and the candidates duty to earn my vote. Rino Rudy has not by his actions.


50 posted on 03/07/2007 5:30:44 AM PST by Hydroshock (Duncan Hunter For President, checkout gohunter08.com.)
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