Skip to comments.Cooling Pacific Heralds Active Atlantic Hurricane Season
Posted on 03/12/2007 7:04:28 PM PDT by blam
Cooling Pacific Heralds Active Atlantic Hurricane Season
CAMP SPRINGS, Maryland, March 9, 2007 (ENS) - On the heels of El Niño, its opposite, the cooling weather pattern in the east-central equatorial Pacific known as La Niña is expected to arrive soon, according to government forecasters. La Niña conditions in the Pacific typically mean a greater than normal number of Atlantic hurricanes.
In a weekly update, scientists at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center said that as the 2006-2007 El Niño has faded, surface and subsurface ocean temperatures have rapidly decreased.
Recently, cooler than normal water temperatures have developed at the surface in the east-central equatorial Pacific, indicating a possible transition to La Niña conditions.
La Niña conditions occur when ocean surface temperatures in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific become cooler than normal.
Dolphins play in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. (Photo courtesy NOAA)
These changes affect tropical rainfall patterns and atmospheric winds over the Pacific Ocean, which influence the patterns of rainfall and temperatures in many areas worldwide. Typically, across the United States during the spring and summer months, La Niña conditions do not significantly impact overall inland temperature and precipitation patterns,but La Niña episodes often do have an effect on Atlantic and Pacific hurricane activity.
"Although other scientific factors affect the frequency of hurricanes, there tends to be a greater than normal number of Atlantic hurricanes and fewer than normal number of eastern Pacific hurricanes during La Niña events," said NOAA Administrator Conrad Lautenbacher.
"During the winter, usual La Niña impacts include drier and warmer than average conditions over the southern United States," he said.
"NOAA's ability to detect and monitor the formation, duration and strength of El Niño and La Niña events is enhanced by continuous improvements in satellite and buoy observations in the equatorial Pacific," Lautenbacher explained.
The observing systems currently at work include the TAO/TRITON moored and Argo drift buoys, as well as NOAA's polar orbiting satellites.
"La Niña events sometimes follow on the heels of El Niño conditions," said Vernon Kousky, research meteorologist at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. "It is a naturally occurring phenomenon that can last up to three years."
"While the status of El Niño/La Niña is of vital importance to our seasonal forecasts, it is but one measure we use when making actual temperature and precipitation forecasts," said Kousky.
La Niña episodes tend to develop during the four months from March through June, reach peak intensity during the December to February period, and then weaken during the following March to May period.
"The last lengthy La Niña event was 1998-2001, which contributed to serious drought conditions in many sections of the western United States," said Douglas Lecomte, drought specialist at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
Radar image of Hurricane Wilma making landfall in South Florida, October 2005. Wilma was the most intense hurricane recorded in the Atlantic basin and only the third Category 5 ever to develop in the month of October. With the formation of Hurricane Wilma, the 2005 season became the most active on record. (Image courtesy NOAA)
In addition, atmospheric scientists have uncovered fresh evidence to support the controversial theory that global warming has contributed to the emergence of stronger hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean. Scientists at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and NOAA's National Climatic Data Center report that all the physical variables that converge to form hurricanes - wind speeds, wind directions and temperatures - feed off each other in ways that only make conditions more ripe for a storm.
The unsettling trend is confined to the Atlantic and does not hold up in any of the world's other oceans, researchers have also found.
James Kossin, a research scientist at UW-Madison's Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, says the pattern emerged from a new dataset that correlates a variety of different satellite data over 22 years from 1983 to 2005.
"While we can see a correlation between global warming and hurricane strength, we still need to understand exactly why the Atlantic is reacting to warmer temperatures in this way, and that is much more difficult to do," says Kossin. "We need to be creating models and simulations to understand what is really happening here."
NOAA will issue the U.S. Spring Outlook on March 15, and its Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook in May. Both outlooks will reflect the most current La Niña forecast.
If we had only signed on to Kyoto, this wouldn't be happening.
It's been wetter and colder in the south, this winter.
Warm is bad, no cool is bad. (repeat 10,000 times)
Except nobody said that.
But, but, but I thought we were in a Global warming crisis?
None of the people that do the seasonal hurricane forecasts you here about consider global warming a factor at all in their forecasts.
What, is the Pacific Ocean going to pour gasoline on the East Coast and flick matches at it? :^)
Memo to Karl: rev up the weather machine and juice the power setting up to 7.
I know that. I live in "hurricane" alley and I can't recall one person in the meteorlogical community ever considering global warming as a factor. El nino, yes.
May I be the first to say?
Didnt they say lst year that it was going to be a horrible Hurrican season? I could have sworn they did.
If you want to know the weather look out the window.
What we really need is some kind of rodent to come out and tell us what the hurricane season will be.
Winter has the Groundhog.
How about a muskrat named Chocolate City Slim.
The geniuses at FEMA have 11,000 trailers ready to go.
It seemed to rain everyday in Feb here. Cold too.
Now THAT's funny!
MOre excuses to raise gas prices even further.
I put gas in my car last Thursday for $2.35/gallon. Today, I have seen it above $2.75!!
I'm glad there is a picture of "Dolphins play[ing] in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean" to help me better understand this article.
You made out Pardner. $ 2.47 here.
It's going to be cold. No, wait, it's going to be hot. No, wait, we are going to get lots of blizzards. No, wait, we are going to get lots of hurricanes. No, wait...
don't u mean sewer rat?
There's this strange perception that some sort of recordbreaking season was forecast last year because of global warming.
Which is completely fictional, of course.
An above-average season in terms of total activity was forecast - a slightly below average season happened, because of an unforecast El Nino (which can be very difficult to forecast itself, and you have to forecast the state of ENSO to forecast the Atlantic Hurricane season.)
And very few storms hit the US. Nobody really hyped a specific US landfall threat other than the incompetent buffoons at AccuWeather.
Does it really matter though? They are born. They die. Most blow out or gives us water. It only takes one bad one though and you can get it any year.
don't u mean sewer rat?
No If we had a sewer rat we would have to name it Bill Clinton.
But...but...this can't be!
What happened to Global Warming???
Algore said it would be hotter.....and he is never wrong!
After all...he invented the Internet!
Were you the one that posted this today?http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1799695/posts
>Except nobody said that.
Oh yes they did. The Guardian, June 1st, 2006:
17 Storms Slated For 2006 Hurricane Season.
Ill wind blows over storm-hit lands
The US hurricane season starts today with predictions of severe turbulence ahead
Alberto, Beryl, Chris and Debby. Somewhere over the Atlantic, a combination of warm sea surface temperatures and wind shear is brewing up a string of tropical storms that threaten to unleash a fresh season of devastation on coastal America.
With New Orleans still surrounded by the wreckage of Katrina, a new hurricane season gets under way today - and with it, the realisation that the coming six months could well bring a repetition of the panic and confusion that revealed a vulnerability many Americans had previously been unaware of.
Yesterday, a new forecast from the respected team of hurricane experts at Colorado State University predicted 17 named storms in 2006, including nine hurricanes. Five of those will be category three storms, with winds of more than 110 miles per hour. "We believe 2006 will be a very active season in the Atlantic basin," the report said.
The University of Colorado team predicts that this year there will be 17 named tropical storms, of which 9 will be hurricanes. Of these, five will be serious Category Three storms.
A Category Three hurricane features winds of more than 110mph.
Researchers believe the chance of a major storm like this making landfall in the US next year is 82%.
It is most likely to strike the east coast, including Florida.
You are right
Th libs will be winding up Al Gore.
Poor Al. Looks like he's in trouble again. We really should name a "cain" after him.
Repeat of the story from the Guardian mentioned earlier:
A Category Three hurricane features winds of more than 110mph.The bold face type is in the original.
Researchers believe the chance of a major storm like this making landfall in the US next year  is 82%.
It is most likely to strike the east coast, including Florida.
Actually they do. Their pay is based on ratings. Which statement is likely to get more viewers: "Weather is going to be same old same" or "Disaster, we're all going to die!"
In the words of Rushbo, "Follow the money".
"experts at Colorado State University"
Well they were a little bit off weren't they? Maybe it's because Colorado is so far from an ocean.
WAIT!! Did you clear this report with Algore?
The 2006 Atlantic hurricane season will be very active with up to 10 hurricanes...it appears that the Pacific Ocean water conditions known as El Nino and La Nina will not have any impact on the Atlantic hurricane season this year, forecasters said. (MSNBC, 5/22/06)
Here too in South Texas. They are about as good at predicting as Al Gore, last year was going to be the worst hurricane season ever. Don't recall one hurricane!
We flooded in Brownsville today. It was so weird. My son called me to take him to lunch because it was " raining" It was sprinkling. About 10 minutes later we were at Star and it was pouring and lightening flashing everywhere. It seemed to let up some so I took him back to work and headed to my office. I hit major flooding that was coming up on the hood and transformers were popping. There was no place to pull over but I made it thru . Many didn't though. All this happened in less than 30 minutes.
My daughter lives about 45 minutes from there, she is a Drug - Rep and covers Brownsville.
We, more in the central coast area, had a terrific storm in the middle of the night and got 1 1/2 inches of rain. I thought it was coming from the south but perhaps it moved down your way!
I used to live in Crosby on the other side of Houston (tornado alley). Before the rain I thought it looked like hail/tornado weather.
I would rather live in a hurricane area than a tornado area, at least we are for-warned and can prepare.
I grew up in Texas City, lol.
Some places we get them both though, huh? :')