Other than South Carolina the states that have early primaries (New Hampshire, Michigan, California, Iowa, Pennsylvania)are all states that are controlled by the moderate wing (OK, RINO wing) of the Republican Party. While the rank and file might be conservative, the big money flows to the RINO candidates. Unless conservatives can unite behind one candidate and not fragment their votes between four, the chances of Rudy getting the nomination is almost a given. Right now there is no candidate conservatives will rally around to the extent it will make a difference.
Could not EXACTLY the same thing be said about G.W. Bush?
I voted twice for him, expecting a "conservative" or at least someone who would enforce the laws of the land (such as immigration law). And what did we get?
I would prefer a Giuliani, who is liberal on his surface but who [in office] persues modestly conservative policies (they certainly seemed that way to the NYC left and media, who HATED him), to an "all dressed up" conservative-on-the-outside [such as Bush] who hobnobs with Mexican Presidents, eating their chili for them!