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Report details bird flu effects
The Wichita Eagle ^ | 3-23-2007 | David Goldstein

Posted on 03/23/2007 9:08:03 PM PDT by blam

Posted on Fri, Mar. 23,

Report details bird flu effects

A study by the Trust for America's Health says a pandemic would have serious economic, as well as health, consequences.

BY DAVID GOLDSTEIN
Eagle Washington bureau

WASHINGTON -A major pandemic flu outbreak could kill more than 2 million Americans, leaving 90 million others ill and causing a serious economic recession, a new study says.

The Kansas economy is projected to take a $6 billion hit; Missouri's twice that much.

"Everywhere will be ground zero," said Merideth Parrish, a public health outreach coordinator for the Kansas City (Mo.) Health Department, which is trying to get local businesses to look ahead.

"Everybody will be experiencing shortages, absenteeism, supply and demand disruptions universally at one time," she said. "The effects will trickle down. I don't think business had a big enough grasp of the severity of the impact."

The Trust for America's Health, a nonprofit health advocacy group, said in its report Thursday that the nation could suffer a nearly $700 billion blow to the economy triggered by employee deaths and sickness.

Many businesses could close or be forced to operate with minimal staff, the report said. Demand for goods and services could drop, as could available supplies, and industries could be disrupted.

The study said the gross domestic product -- the total value of all the goods and services that the U.S. produces -- could drop by between 4 and 6 percent. The GDP was valued at $12.4 trillion in 2005.

"A pandemic poses a serious threat to our global economy," said Jeffrey Levi, executive director of the Trust for America's Health. "Businesses, governments, schools and other sectors could all face serious disruptions."

Avian flu has already resulted in 169 deaths in Asia, Africa and the Middle East. Scientists have not found evidence that the virus has mutated to allow human-to-human transmission.

Levi said public health scientists generally believe that a pandemic is likely. No vaccine is widely available yet to fully protect humans from avian flu.

The study was based on several public and private analyses of a pandemic's economic impact. It used as a model the 1918 influenza outbreak, which caused 50 million deaths worldwide and 675,000 in this country. The federal government also uses 1918 for its modeling.

The economic impact would result from absenteeism by workers who die, become ill, stay home to treat family members or just stay home out of fear of contracting the flu.

The study said the pandemic could extend over 18 months, with several waves lasting from six to eight weeks.

The federal government and states provide information and advice to industry about preparing for a pandemic. But local business communities are responsible for their own plans.

Richard Morrissey, deputy director of the Division of Health for the Kansas Department of Health and Environment, said large national corporations, like Sprint and Raytheon, are further along in their planning. Both participated in a symposium on business preparations the state held last spring in Wichita.

"The real difficult impact is on the smallest businesses where you've got a few employees," Morrissey said. "When you have a couple out, how do you continue to operate? We don't have a good answer for those kinds of problems."

The economic fallout would affect most phases of the economy, the study said. It ranked the economic loss to 20 top industries. The hotel and food industries would suffer the biggest hit -- $68 million -- followed by transportation and warehousing, which would lose $61 million.

The outlook could be grim for the entertainment and tourism industries because they involve crowds, the study said. The Congressional Budget Office said in its own analysis that those industries could see business plummet by 80 percent over three months during a pandemic.

The Trust's report said that states where those industries are critical, such asCalifornia, Hawaii, Florida, Vermont, Mississippi and Nevada, could be in for a rough ride.

The report is available at http://healthyamericans.org/reports/flurecession.

Reach David Goldstein at 202-383-6105 or dgoldstein@mcclatchydc.com


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: avian; bird; details; flu
BOO!
1 posted on 03/23/2007 9:08:05 PM PDT by blam
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To: blam
Yeah, and I have a method that repels birds (doesn't hurt them), and talked the the CDC about it, my congress critter and they could care less.

Stay away from "natural" foods, range feed chickens etc.

The bird flu lives in bird poop, and when it disintegrates into the atmosphere you got problems. Also don't sleep with you Parrot
2 posted on 03/23/2007 9:12:17 PM PDT by stubernx98 (cranky, but reasonable)
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To: blam

NEWS FLASH: No one gets outa here alive!


3 posted on 03/23/2007 9:19:01 PM PDT by lightman (The Office of the Keys should be exercised as some ministry needs to be exorcised)
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To: blam
I continue to be skeptical.

Something is going on, however, because allot of money worldwide is being allocated to this phantom pandemic.

This is from the House Military Budget bill passed on March 23, 2007:

Avian Flu: Provides $969 million for the Department of HHS to continue to prepare and respond to an avian flu pandemic. Of this funding, $870 million is to be used for the development of vaccines.

Especially after I found these:

Bird flu has killed at least 167 people worldwide since it broke out in Asian poultry stocks in 2003. [Note that the article of this thread omits that latter part - 167 deaths since 2003.]

Source: Number of bird flu cases reach 50, but no infections in humans or commercial poultry farms
AP, March 5, 2007


Yet, this from Nov, 2006:

$1.3 billion more needed for bird flu - Bird Flu - MSNBC.com

Keywords: $1.3 billion more


A heck of allot of money is being spent on something --- and I don't 167 deaths worldwide in 4 years is the reason.
4 posted on 03/23/2007 9:26:01 PM PDT by TomGuy
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To: TomGuy; Smokin' Joe; LucyT
"A heck of allot of money is being spent on something --- and I don't 167 deaths worldwide in 4 years is the reason."

Yup. They still seem to be proceeding full speed ahead but without the original hysteria. Most people have lost interest...it seems.

5 posted on 03/23/2007 9:42:20 PM PDT by blam
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To: blam
Most people have lost interest...it seems.

Some interesting discussion on fluwiki about lack of interest; maybe it's a lack of reporting?

6 posted on 03/23/2007 9:57:44 PM PDT by LucyT
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To: 2ndreconmarine; Fitzcarraldo; Covenantor; Mother Abigail; EBH; Dog Gone; ...

Ping.. (Thanks, blam!)


7 posted on 03/23/2007 10:29:32 PM PDT by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly.)
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To: blam; TomGuy; LucyT
One of the best ways to make sure something gets ignored is to raise a ruckus and have nothing happen. (Nothing to see here, folks, move along now...)

However, the planning, etc., going on is a dual use thing which may work in the event of biological attack.

I did note the reference to 'our' global economy, meaning the US in particular, but not taking into account that similar or even worse disruptions would occur in other countries as well.

I may be reading too much into that turn of phrase, but the exclusion seems to indicate an anticipation of a contagious and commonly fatal disease which affects the US more so than elsewhere, as if in anticipation of biological attack.

8 posted on 03/23/2007 10:38:20 PM PDT by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly.)
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To: Smokin' Joe; blam; TomGuy; LucyT
However, the planning, etc., going on is a dual use thing which may work in the event of biological attack.

Bingo.

One of the areas which has been woefully ignored for years in the field of Emergency Management is planning and training. Thankfully that seems to be changing since most of the Fed and State funding is being tied to measurable training goals.

Since NIMS and ICS are now Federally mandated a lot of state and local governments are now putting real effort into planning and exercising.

Don't be surprised to see lots of this going on in your area in the upcoming 18 months or so.

L

9 posted on 03/23/2007 10:54:32 PM PDT by Lurker (Calling islam a religion is like calling a car a submarine.)
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To: blam

*BUMP*!


10 posted on 03/24/2007 4:01:42 AM PDT by ex-Texan (Matthew 7: 1 - 6)
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To: blam

Something tells they're hoping for some disaster to thin the population out.


11 posted on 03/24/2007 4:19:10 AM PDT by Waco
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To: Waco
Something tells they're hoping for some disaster to thin the population out.

The only ones wishing that way are the environmentalists. Their vehicle is the much more telegenic morality play of gorebal warming, not some nasty and painful means - like pandemic disease - where you end your miserable days dying isolated, suffocating in your own blood.

12 posted on 03/24/2007 6:04:15 AM PDT by Gritty (San Francisco now registers more dogs that it does schoolchildren - Mark Steyn)
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To: TomGuy
This bird flu has not yet mutated to a form that passes from human to human. If it does your skepticism will disappear. These viruses mutate quickly, making it difficult to provide a serum in time. I found the book "The Great Influenza of 1918" very enlightening on this subject and on Woodrow Wilson and WWI.
13 posted on 03/24/2007 6:13:35 AM PDT by gorush (Exterminate the Moops!)
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To: Smokin' Joe; Lurker; LucyT; TomGuy
"I may be reading too much into that turn of phrase, but the exclusion seems to indicate an anticipation of a contagious and commonly fatal disease which affects the US more so than elsewhere, as if in anticipation of biological attack."

According to the 'experts' in a number of fields, we're due or overdue for some catastrophist event: pandemic, supervolcano, major earthquake, asteroid impact and now we have human provoked catastrophic possibilities. So...

The recent earthquake/tsunami in Indonesia and the effects of Katrina have reminded TPTB that unexpected 'sh.. happens.'

14 posted on 03/24/2007 7:02:10 AM PDT by blam
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To: blam

Global warming crises are the scourge of the mongers in winter; now flu crises are going to fill the lazy, hazy days of summer?

Do these Pandoric Pimps ever sleep?


15 posted on 03/24/2007 12:20:49 PM PDT by Old Professer (The critic writes with rapier pen, dips it twice, and writes again.)
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To: Smokin' Joe

The enemy is going to launch a battalion of Bird Flu Bonnies?


16 posted on 03/24/2007 12:23:21 PM PDT by Old Professer (The critic writes with rapier pen, dips it twice, and writes again.)
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To: Lurker

If you own a vacant house, keep the lights on and a No Trespassing sign in the yard.


17 posted on 03/24/2007 12:24:17 PM PDT by Old Professer (The critic writes with rapier pen, dips it twice, and writes again.)
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To: Old Professer
If I had to bet, it would be more along the lines of a smallpox variant, but there are other weaponized lovelies out there, up to and including an ebola variant.

Quarrantine, restricted travel, high mortality, insufficient medical care/infrastructure/supplies, and the complications of as few as just one out of 10 people dropping dead are tough to plan for, but the same plans generally would work for a natural pandemic (even though the weaponized strains would likely be far more deadly).

18 posted on 03/24/2007 12:40:13 PM PDT by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly.)
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To: blam

The birds seem to be as annoying as ever for this time of year. I haven't heard if the University is interviewing more birds this year. They came up zero for 20,000 last year.


19 posted on 03/24/2007 12:43:32 PM PDT by RightWhale (Treaty rules;commerce droolz; Repeal the Treaty)
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To: Old Professer
If you own a vacant house, keep the lights on and a No Trespassing sign in the yard.

I'm not sure why you gave me this advice, but it is sound. So if I ever find myself owning a vacant house I shall indeed adhere to it.

Thanks,

L

20 posted on 03/24/2007 1:10:59 PM PDT by Lurker (Calling islam a religion is like calling a car a submarine.)
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To: Lurker

There was a recent thread where the local police decided to stage a training exercise in what they thought was an abandoned house only to be informed by the owner that they had just damaged his recently begun rehabilitation work; one never knows.


21 posted on 03/24/2007 1:28:18 PM PDT by Old Professer (The critic writes with rapier pen, dips it twice, and writes again.)
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To: RightWhale
"The birds seem to be as annoying as ever for this time of year. I haven't heard if the University is interviewing more birds this year. They came up zero for 20,000 last year."

I've had my hummingbird feeders up for two weeks now, not one hummingbird has dropped by for a fill-up. I'm beginning to wonder, unless I'm just early?

22 posted on 03/24/2007 1:48:27 PM PDT by blam
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