Posted on 03/24/2007 6:19:35 AM PDT by Josh Painter
This is exactly where conservatives are dead wrong. They seem to think that by changing politics they can change the culture. It works the opposite way. You can change politics by changing the culture, but you cannot change the culture by changing politics. Politics is a reflection of cultural values and attitudes. Those norms and attitudes are not receptive to concervatives in the blue states or the swing states. 2006 established that.
If Santorum, Talent and Allen could not win in PA, MO and VA then neither can Thompson. Republican insiders and Thompson himself know that even if you don't.
Here's one statement he has made recently that does seem to be sincere and strong:
Listen to Thompson on immigration HEREIn any case, Thompson is an improvement over Giuliani, IMHO. (Please, no flame wars over this!)
massadvj wrote: "...there is a vocal, politically unrealistic minority opposed to Giuliani from the right."
57% of Republicans are unhappy, not only with Rudy, but with McCain and Romney also. Please tell us how this is a minority?
If you are not running and just want to stall another candidate's progress, you put a spokesperson like Jimmy Duncan out there and go on Paul Harvey News. If you are really running you put a nationally renowned conservative out there and go on Meet the Press.
You folks are grasping at straws.
Richard Kimball wrote: "I'm looking for a June or July announcement."
IMO, formation of a Fred Thompson exploratory committee is a real possibility before the end of March. He'll probably join the race officially sometime in May or June.
I cannot agree with that. You may be thinking in terms of our representatives in the legislature. We send them there to represent us, and they generally reflect the culture of the present moment, yes.
However, for presidents we elect leaders, who are in a different class altogether. We elect them to lead us into the uncertain fog ahead, and the true leader leads us where he decides, not where we direct.
A great leader can indeed change the culture.
It is my understanding that Mr. Thompson has since announced that he doesn't support the way it has been used, and is interested in changes being made to it.
Although I generally agree with that thesis, there are times when a change in laws does produce a change in the culture. The relaxation of decency laws and the Roe decision have effected the way people make choices. Victoria Secret adverts that are plastered on billboards everywhere now would have been considered pornographic before the '60's. Girls and women who would never have considered abortion a possibility 40 years ago now consider it a potential option (if not for themselves at least for others). Changes in these laws have indeed effected the way we view women, sex, etc. They have helped change our attitudes.
I usually argue that the culure war is where the real action is in our national life these days. However true that is, it would be a mistake to neglect electoral politics. When you think of the communications apparatus that the elites command, they can influence not only the culture, but the legislation that promotes their cultural revolution.
It is therefore a mistake to be "quietist" about elections, even though they may not be as decisive as they were in Reagan's time. Neglecting politics for "cultural work" is a temptation nowadays, especially given our recent setbacks and the lame, uninspiring crop of presidential contenders we have. In general I agree with your statement, but it would be a mistake to ignore politics completely.
That does not translate to support for Thompson. If the sentiment at tradesports.com is any indication, right now head to head against McCain, Romney and Giuliani, he loses to all three. Thompson well knows this. As a senator he was lazy and lackluster, and he is the same as a potentional candidate. "Beg me and maybe I'll run." What kind of strategy is that? Certainly not one any serious contender would attempt.
I hope you do wait until July to shift your support to someoone else, because there is no way on earth any candidate can win this primary by starting in July.
The insiders do not want Giuliani bloodied. Thompson is an insider. He won't run.
He may be trying to hold off until after the May sweeps. He's getting lots of free air time from his TV show (sort of reminds me of Reagan and Death Valley Days). Filling in for Paul Harvey for 3 weeks is giving him a lot of exposure to core republicans who probably don't spend a lot of time on the internet.
At this point, he's running a very smart campaign.
The votes were not there, no matter what Thompson might or might not have done, so that failure should NOT be laid at his feet.
1. You cannot ignore cultural attitudes when you pursue political goals. They are a constraint.
2. Cultural attitudes right now are decidedly anti-conservative as our candidates got their asses kicked in the last election.
3. #2 is doubly-true in the swing states, without which no Republican national candidate can win.
4. Thompson is politically identical to Talent, Santorum and Allen without anywhere near the name recognition of those candidates in their home states. We lost $100 million last year and more importantly both the senate and house attempting to force these candidates down the throats of an electorate that did not want them.
5. All of the polling data suiggests that the liberalization of society in increasing, not decreasing.
How you can know what you know and then conclude what you conclude about who can win and cannot win the presidency is beyond me.
massadvj wrote: "Conservative is becoming a dirty word in the swing states..."
That's just not so. According to a 2005 Harris Interactive poll, "Large majorities believe that conservatives favor moral values, cutting taxes, and oppose same-sex marriage, gay rights, and abortion rights. Majorities believe liberals favor abortion rights, gay rights, same-sex marriages, and affirmative action. But substantial numbers of people don’t know where conservatives and liberals stand on those and other issues. And some people seem to completely misunderstand these labels." So, given these perceptions,how can "conservative" be considered a "dirty word" anywhere except for San Francisco and New York?
And wrote: "I have a Ph.D. in marketing and when I see the demographic and attitudinal data, I cannot ignore it."
Well, professor, please share with us your thoughts on the series of Battleground polls taken each year from 2002 through last year in which 59% of Americans considered themselves "conservative" or "very conservative" and 35% of Americans considered themselves "liberal" or "very liberal." then tell us again how "conservative" has become a "dirty word" in swing states, LOL. We will appreciate your keen insight.
That's fine as long as he's getting the money lined up.
massadvj, there's a significant advantage to having a microphone you control, with a far larger audience than Meet the Press. Paul Harvey gets 18 million listeners daily, compared to Meet the Press getting 3.6 million weekly. Also, on Meet the Press, he'll get one or two small segments, where he'll be hammered by liberal broadcasters, cut off, and insulted.
On Paul Harvey, he can stake out his positions. Older people tend to vote democratic, because they believe the scare tactics used by the democrats. It's far more difficult to demonize Thompson if he's been doing the folksy newscast and these people have heard him and trust him.
I agree with you on applying Occam's razor. Fred is most likely doing what he needs to do for Fred. However, you seem overly optimistic about his lack of negatives. Let's see what happens when/if he enters the race.
IMO, he has a huge liability in being a friend of McCain and in supporting the blatantly anti-free speech McCain-Feingold amendment. It's not a deal breaker for me, but he's got some 'splaining to do.
I really wish Fred Thompson would get in the race now! I have been supporting Duncan Hunter with $ and really think he is the best candidate who is IN the race now. I would support Thompson once he announced. A Thompson/Hunter ticket would greatly please me. I believe many DEMS who would not like the possible Hillary/Obama ticket would vote for a Thompson/Hunter or Thompson/Steele ticket!
These are people who are either currently unemployed because they were rejected by McCain, Giuliani and Romney, or fundraisers who work on big commissions. You hire the commission people and they raise $2 million, you end up with $500K after you pay the expenses and commissions. Those folks can't get you $100 million in the next year. All the stablished, reputable Republican fundraisers are spoken for at this point.
What he really needs is someone like Club For Growth or the NRA who will put up a big chunk, and that is what he is looking for. He is finding that such money is unavailable, just as Gingrich did. The reason is that the financiers got burned for over $300 million last year by backing candidates who are identical to Thompson ideologically. They have learned their lesson. They want a winner, they smell one with Giuliani, and they do not want him sullied.
So Thompson will not run for the same reason Gingrich will not run. It is already over. Giuliani has but to finish off McCain and the primary is done with. Then we pass the popcorn and hope the Dimwits destroy themselves.
I'd agree with end of March (a full 7 days away!) except we'd read he's going to D.C. in mid-April to talk with some other leaders...
But ..clearly Fred has his own strategy going so we'll just have to wait him out:)
Fred is also a Visiting Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute researching National Defense and Intelligence. So he has certainly been keeping his hand in.
I voted for him for the Senate twice and would again. My only beef with him was that in the Senate he seemed to be in the group that protected the Trail Lawyers against tort reform, but that aside, his record was solidly conservative as, I believe, are his instincts.
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