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Giuliani campaigns in Newport Beach (and outlines his positions)
Daily PIlot ^ | March 24, 2007 | Amanda Pennington and Alicia Robinson

Posted on 03/25/2007 11:44:12 AM PDT by FairOpinion

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To: Mr. Silverback
I have learned one thing that is beyond doubt in the political arena: The I-can-tell-the-vote-will-go-this-way-based-on-my-personal-conversations method is about as reliable as reading chicken entrails. It is absolutely, positively worthless in every way for judging a candidate or party's chances.

In the past forty years, there have only been THREE presidential elections that, barring some sort of disaster for the incumbent, were "in the bag" a few months out of the election: 1972, 1984 and 1996 (call me whatever names you like, but anyone who is honest by September that Dole didn't have a chance). And these fell into this category because they were incumbents. This is going to be the first election since 1952 when neither party will be nominating either an incumbent president or vice president, there will be a lot more undecided voters than usual.

421 posted on 03/26/2007 1:39:30 PM PDT by wagglebee ("We are ready for the greatest achievements in the history of freedom." -- President Bush, 1/20/05)
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To: Mr. Silverback

Im not ready to give up those women just because they are percieved as being lost causes for the party.

One by one.


422 posted on 03/26/2007 1:41:59 PM PDT by beansox (Burn A Battle In Our Hearts For The Battle At Hand)
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To: Porterville

I might just do that.

Thanks. :-)


423 posted on 03/26/2007 1:44:23 PM PDT by TomServo ("Jim Henson's Flying Leatherneck Babies!")
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To: wagglebee

I haven't seen such blind foolishness since Clinton was elected.

Voters who do not care what the candidate stands for, only that he wins.

Soccer moms become sucker moms.


424 posted on 03/26/2007 1:47:29 PM PDT by airborne (Airborne! Ranger! Combat Tested Vietnam Veteran! DUNCAN HUNTER !!)
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To: All

It's aboit the war on terror, stupid. nothing else.


425 posted on 03/26/2007 1:48:23 PM PDT by Porterville (Bullies love Peace and the Peaceful fight Wars.)
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To: beansox; Mr. Silverback
Do you think this election is going to be the status quo? I do not. I think there will be a record turnout and that the these youths will have an huge impact on its outcome.

Doubtful. The only elections with "record turnout" among young people were during Vietnam. The left can compare Iraq to Vietnam all they want, but young people DO NOT have the negative attitude toward Iraq that they did about Vietnam

I want to win those voters to the GOP ticket. Dont you?

If we get liberals to vote GOP by nominating a liberal, all that will happen is that they will bolt the next time we nominate a conservative. And in the process, a lot of conservatives will bolt and we will wind up like the Whigs.

426 posted on 03/26/2007 1:48:55 PM PDT by wagglebee ("We are ready for the greatest achievements in the history of freedom." -- President Bush, 1/20/05)
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To: airborne

If we had a parliamentary system, it wouldn't matter as much, but if we nominate Rudy the GOP will go the way of the Whigs.


427 posted on 03/26/2007 1:51:18 PM PDT by wagglebee ("We are ready for the greatest achievements in the history of freedom." -- President Bush, 1/20/05)
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To: beansox
What am I supposed to say to young people...ummmm you know that guy..he had a walk on part in Law and Order?

You know, this is the problem. You look at the generation that has 9/11 as their formative event, and instead of saying, "This is a guy who'll keep America safe, and Hillary and Obama have no clue," you decide that you need to bring up pop culture cred. You could say that he busted the biggest ring of corrupt thugs in the history of his state government , or you could say he's making sure they'l be able to work where they want, retire, and live to see it because he'll defend the country and reform the medical system," but instead you figure you need to talk about his TV role. If you brought up acting at all you could bring up the fact that he was cast as himself in a movie about his corruption-busting days because he was so passionate about standing up for the little guy that no actor could protray him properly. But no, you would bring up a dang TV show and not even get that right. Oh, the humanity.

Do you think this election is going to be the status quo? I do not. I think there will be a record turnout and that the these youths will have an huge impact on its outcome.

I started watching the nightly news with my parents back when I was about 6 or 7. I've been a real serious news junkie for over a quarter century now.

Why is that relevant? Because that prediction has been made in every single election that I can remember. That takes us back to somewhere in the early Eighties at least.

First, these people do not vote. Let me repeat that: They do not vote. It doesn't matter what the issues are, how many of them register, what the parties do to appeal to them, they do not vote. You can say I'm an old fuddy duddy who doesn't "get" these kids all you want, but time and again they're supposed to turn the election, and they don't show.

Second, those that do vote cast their votes for Dems overwhelmingly. Once again, you're using people who are not in play to try and tell us where the swing voters are going.

I want to win those voters to the GOP ticket. Dont you?

Two answers:

1. Well, you sure ain't trying very hard. If Rudy gets the nomination, what are you going to say? Based on your answer about Thompson, I'm betting something like "You know, Rudy? I know MTV portrays him as Satan, but you should really vote for him because he's just like Obama, except for being a rich white man. Oh, and when MTV says he sent his cops out to sodomize black immigrants, don't worry about that." I mean, if you can't fight MTV now for a guy who will save their lives, why would you be able to fight MTV in September of '08 for a different guy who'll save their lives?

2. What are we supposed to do to win these voters to the GOP ticket? You say they want a far lefty. Well, should we run one? Heck, Rudy might be WAY too conservative for them. Seriously, why do you think that we should run a person (and platform) for the most important job on the planet who can appeal to people who know nothing about politics except what they see on MTV? How would that NOT turn off everybody to the right of Al Gore who's planning to vote in 2008?

Sorry, but I think you've probably made the weakest case for a primary candidate in the history of FR.

428 posted on 03/26/2007 2:05:21 PM PDT by Mr. Silverback (A pacifist sees no distinction between the arsonist and the fireman--Freeper ccmay)
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To: wagglebee

Oh, I'm not saying it's in the bag for either party. In fact, I'm not even certain that we'll win even if we get the best possible GOP candidate, or that Hallary or Obama can win even if we put up our worst candidate. I'm just saying that the "I talked to people" method means exactly squat.


429 posted on 03/26/2007 2:08:52 PM PDT by Mr. Silverback (A pacifist sees no distinction between the arsonist and the fireman--Freeper ccmay)
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To: wagglebee

" The left can compare Iraq to Vietnam all they want, but young people DO NOT have the negative attitude toward Iraq that they did about Vietnam"

I disagree with that. I think they do, and I think the MSM will tap into (and exploit) those feelings (read attitude) the closer and closer the election comes.


"If we get liberals to vote GOP"

Im not trying to get liberals to vote GOP. Im trying to turn Democrats into Republicans. Right now there is such a gap between those ideologies that building a bridge is quite the task.

I want to put up a candidate that makes that task a little less daunting. Someone who will pull from both sides of the isle.

If we do not find a moderate that can bridge the gap, the GOP may indeed go the way of the Whigs.


430 posted on 03/26/2007 2:12:19 PM PDT by beansox (Burn A Battle In Our Hearts For The Battle At Hand)
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To: Mr. Silverback

You are pushing a candidate that is too far right to win the general election. He may be the best candidate for FR, but he will not be percieved as a moderate, and the majority of Americans will be voting moderate. We saw this with 06 elections.


431 posted on 03/26/2007 2:18:14 PM PDT by beansox (Burn A Battle In Our Hearts For The Battle At Hand)
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To: beansox
Good, work on them one by one. Somebody working one by one got me to be a pro-lifer, in about 1987.

But what if that person, after talking to me and many other pro-abort youth, had said, "Listen, we can't nominate Geroge H. W. Bush for the presidency! He's a pro-lifer, he'll drive all these kids away!" Would they have been right? What if that same person, four years before had said "We're going to lose our butts! Geraldine Ferraro is a pro-choicer and Reagan will never be able to win running as a pro-lifer against a ticket with a woman on it! I've talked to a bunch of young people and I know this beyond doubt!"

That's the case you're making here, and you're just as wrong.

Lastly, I don't have my underwear in a bunch, but it really is insulting for you to assume that "Don't judge a presidential candidate by what a young girl tells you because she's not a swing voter" is my way of saying "screw those kids, they aren't worth anything." You really come off as thinking you're the only one who knows about or cares about any of this stuff, and it's somewhat belittling.

432 posted on 03/26/2007 2:21:59 PM PDT by Mr. Silverback (A pacifist sees no distinction between the arsonist and the fireman--Freeper ccmay)
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To: Mr. Silverback
I'm just saying that the "I talked to people" method means exactly squat.

************

Yes. It's absurd. There's a story about that I can't quite recall, but it had to do with a group of voters asking how a Republican (GWB?) was elected, because "no one they knew voted for him".

433 posted on 03/26/2007 2:23:18 PM PDT by trisham (Zen is not easy. It takes effort to attain nothingness. And then what do you have? Bupkis.)
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To: beansox

You will never get a candidate that can pull from both sides of the aisle. It will not happen with Rudy. It will happen with a positive Reagan conservative. A pro America candidate that shares the best of American values and is able to give Americans hope instead of fear. The fear does not encompass the WOT only. People hate moderates, many moderate do not care, because they have no opinion. Either will do.


434 posted on 03/26/2007 2:26:27 PM PDT by dforest (Liberals love crisis, create crisis and then dwell on them.)
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To: Mr. Silverback

"You really come off as thinking you're the only one who knows about or cares about any of this stuff, and it's somewhat belittling."

I aplogize as it wasnt my intention.

You could be right and I could be wrong. Maybe the country has shifted further right than myself and I am just out of the loop. I do live in Los Angeles, maybe Im jaded and have lost hope that a staunch conservative can beat out a moderate.

I remember back during the recall, a lot of conservatives were pushing heavy for Mc Clintock. They kept saying he was the "ideal" conservative, and from their stand point he was. Similar to the way people push Thompson and Hunter. But it was Arnold who pulled demographics from all walks of lives on all sides of the issues.


I know I know I know this Cali ..and we are the exception.... I have heard it all before.


435 posted on 03/26/2007 2:33:36 PM PDT by beansox (Burn A Battle In Our Hearts For The Battle At Hand)
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To: wagglebee

Absolutely. I will vote for the GOP ticket.


436 posted on 03/26/2007 2:35:01 PM PDT by beansox (Burn A Battle In Our Hearts For The Battle At Hand)
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To: beansox
the majority of Americans will be voting moderate. We saw this with 06 elections.

You're showing your ignorance again. What about the New Blue Dogs? Conservatism (or, rather, the perception of it) is what won the election for the Dems. They ran pro-gun, pro-life, fiscal conservatives in crucial districts and the voters picked them. In some cases the Congresscritter who lost was also a conservative, but his opponent was able to point to left-leaning things he had done. In other words, when the Dem was able to successfully portray himself as a conservative running against a mushy moderate, he won. Then there's the fact that the sixth year of a Presidential term is a bloodbath for the President's party.

As for Thompson, he is (as I understand it) a bit to the left of Ronald Reagan. Ronald Reagan won two landlsides, one of which ranks as one of the most lopsided elections in the history of democracy. Also, when one brings in the corruption factor (another big problem for the GOP last year) he is as pure as the driven snow and was not in the Senate for the main spending spree. Hillary, on the other hand, gets most of her experience cred from the most corrupt administration since Harding.

437 posted on 03/26/2007 2:35:18 PM PDT by Mr. Silverback (A pacifist sees no distinction between the arsonist and the fireman--Freeper ccmay)
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To: indylindy

"You will never get a candidate that can pull from both sides of the aisle."

It happened here in California with Arnold.

"People hate moderates, many moderate do not care, because they have no opinion."

Really? Cause Im pretty sure that the House and Senate were taken control of in 06 by the democratic party on the backs of those who voted for "moderates".


438 posted on 03/26/2007 2:37:49 PM PDT by beansox (Burn A Battle In Our Hearts For The Battle At Hand)
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To: trisham
I know a columnist for the New York Times (who virtually never left Manhattan and left the environs of NYC even less) wondered how Nixon could have won because she didn't know anyone who had voted for him.

The science writer Marianna Gosnell says she had a college professor who used to illustrate bad science by challenging his class to prove North Dakota exists. His main piece of evidence was that none of them knew anyone from North Dakota, and class after class, there wasn't a person in the room who knew anyone from North Dakota.

439 posted on 03/26/2007 2:40:52 PM PDT by Mr. Silverback (A pacifist sees no distinction between the arsonist and the fireman--Freeper ccmay)
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To: Mr. Silverback

Look, dont come at me with things like I feel belittled by your tone and turn around and call me ignornant a couple of posts later.

It shuts me down and then I get witchy.


440 posted on 03/26/2007 2:42:03 PM PDT by beansox (Burn A Battle In Our Hearts For The Battle At Hand)
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