Skip to comments.Why Iran matters to oil markets
Posted on 03/28/2007 3:25:02 PM PDT by DBCJR
As tensions mount with Iran, oil markets around the world remain fixated on the Persian Gulf, ready to send prices soaring on the slightest hint of escalation.
Tuesday crude oil jumped $5 a barrel, or about 8 percent, on rumors, later denied, that U.S. warships had clashed with Iran's naval vessels.
...the United States gets less than 20 percent of its oil from the Mideast, and has an embargo on all oil from Iran. Plus, experts say Iran needs to export oil just as badly as the world needs to buy it, making a complete shutoff unlikely.
Iran, the world's No. 4 producer, has been playing hardball of late. It seized 15 British sailors Friday...
It remains defiant in the face of recently tightened United Nations sanctions designed to stop the country from enriching uranium...
Traders fear military action could disrupt oil supplies flowing through the narrow Strait of Hormuz, which Iran borders on the north.
And although Iran relies on oil exports for up to half its government budget, traders fear the country could use oil as a weapon, withholding it in retaliation for sanctions or a military strike on its nuclear program.
"If you want to see a quick way for oil spices to spike to $100, all they have to do is threaten to pull some or all of their oil off the market," said Neal Dingmann, a senior energy analyst at Dahlman Rose & Co., a New York-based energy investment firm.
... Iran ranks as the world's fourth-largest producer behind Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States.
With an estimated 137 billion barrels, the country's oil reserves are second only to Saudi Arabia's 264 billion barrels, according to EIA. And it has the world's second-largest reserves of natural gas, behind Russia.
(Excerpt) Read more at money.cnn.com ...
One thing obviously missing: China's voracious apetite for oil. And where do they buy oil?
Reminds me of the Cleavon Little bit in "Blazing Saddles".
To answer you question - if Iran's capability is taken down, they go onto the spot market until they can make other longer term arrangements.
LOL-Stop or I'll shoot the...
I did not realize the US produced more Oil than Iran. Very interesting. Why aren't we part of OPEC?(s/)
Ideally, I'd love for the U.S. and Britian to sponsor a civil war in Iran. Give the 'freedom fighters' all the weapons and aid they need to destroy the Mullahs.
I retired from the service several years ago, but when I was still active the price tag on a plain vanilla cruise missile (not the sea-launched version) was on the order of $600,000.00 a copy, give or take, based on quantity, IIRC.
That would put the price tag of your strike at $ 600 million. Can be done by different means far more inexpensively . . . .
And, as another poster notes, we don't need to destroy the infrastructure to shut them down, and there are some significant drawbacks longer term to destroying that infrastructure.
I think we can achieve both. And a side benefit of this would be to crush the global warming nuts. Humanity. cars are not causing global warming. The sun is, the oceans are. We can pollute the water, create wonderful smog filled rides to work. But global climate change? That's a joke.
There is no 'of course' about ANWR. The TransAlaska Oil Pipeline is about to be shut down and torn out. ANWR won't keep the pipeline open unless it goes online soon, and there will be a ten year lag between permit approval and first flow. Time is about up. Also, it is ANWR.
Thank you Jimmy Carter for this mess. The Shah was trying to modernize his nation, and we should have helped him crush the Mullahs. I hope to God that there are enough Iranians left from that era, that would be receptive to starting a civil war there.
Reminds me of the Cleavon Little bit in "Blazing Saddles".
"Do what he say! Do what he say!".......sorry couldn't help it. One of my favorites.
I'm in a very compative mood today, please excuse the ANWAR slip.
It's nothing. The serious concept is that ANWR can do anything at all. If it is not produced soon, and it may already be too late, there won't be a pipeline to ship it through. The pipeline is past its design lifetime, and while it is still functional the volume of oil being shipped is getting near the lower end of utility. There may be only two, or maybe at the most ten years left before the volume is so little it is not worth keeping the pipeline open. If ANWR comes in after that it won't justify the pipeline.
A number of them left. Many of them, and their descendants, live in the metro Washington, DC area, and in California.
Top World Oil Producers, 2005
Country / Total Oil Production
(million barrels per day)
1) Saudi Arabia / 11.1
2) Russia / 9.5
3) United States / 8.2
4) Iran / 4.2
5) Mexico / 3.8
6) China / 3.8
7) Canada / 3.1
8) Norway / 3.0
9) United Arab Emirates / 2.8
10) Venezuela / 2.8
Don't be ridiculous. We are replacing the pumps with new electric drive units because it will be used for at least another few decades.
I guess we're not a big exporter of oil. We consume more than we produce. BTW....any connection to the South Carolina Barrs?
Yes, if oil production stays above a certain minimum. It looks like about two years. In 3-4 years oil revenue to the State will be low enough that the deficit will require a substantial State income tax. Our future is flippin' sweet, said Frank. But we fired him.
The solution is so simple, yet the world refuses to act. I'm beginning to understand how Hitler rose to power, how 'PEACE IN OUR TIME' came to be. People are so afraid of losing what they have, that they fail to see they'll have nothing if they do not act.
Of course they have. They have to upgrade. It is no indication that the pipeline will be operating in ten years, which it would have to be for ANWR if ANWR goes ahead now, right now.
The entire world knows that Iran sponsors terrorism. Is trying to develop nukes. What the heck are we waiting for? You'd think that our military planners have been prepared for this type of senario. It's amazing that we think we're going to talk them into a compromise, that we're talking to the Iranian government at all. They must be defeated not negotiated with.
I greatly disagree with this thought. There are lots of indications, including the owners of the pipeline spending hundreds of millions of dollars for new production pads and enhanced oil recovery.
"The entire world knows that Iran sponsors terrorism. Is trying to develop nukes. What the heck are we waiting for? You'd think that our military planners have been prepared for this type of senario. It's amazing that we think we're going to talk them into a compromise, that we're talking to the Iranian government at all. They must be defeated not negotiated with."
And everytime we prove to them exactly what we are made of, liberal wimps, the little guys think they are a little tougher, Allah really is on their side, and they get bolder. We are road mapping a nuke in our midst.
No relation that I know of.
It is possible. Both you and I have seen projects fold after large investments.
Possible yes. But for your prediction to come true all the projects have to fold, not just one or two.
Oil production would not have to go to zero. When it falls to about half of what it is now, which is 1/4 of what it was when the pipeline first started flow, it will be a coin toss whether it is worth pumping any more.
Using only existing production fields, ignoring the new fields that are being explored and drilled, it will be 20 years before the production falls to half of today. With Pioneer and Shell and NRPA it will fall much slower. If ANWR would come in, it would start increasing instead of falling. It might rise without it, but probably not.
It is time to blocade the entire Iranian shoreline. Let no ships leave or enter. The ships which try, should be seized and possibly scuttled. Sink their Navy and blow up their airforce. Then destroy their generals and army leaders.
When that is over, bomb and kill ever Islamofascist leader/mullah we can find. After the regime change, arm the good Iranians and post a bounty for the heads of the remain Islamofascist Serial Killers. With a triple bonus on the Iranian Serial Killers in Iraq.
They said you was hung...
They said you was hung...
"And they was RIGHT!"
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