Skip to comments.Non-OPEC Oil Production Seen Peaking in 2015
Posted on 04/03/2007 8:58:47 AM PDT by thackney
Oil supplies from non-Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries producers will increase by as much as 4 million barrels a day and peak in 2015 before dropping from then until 2030, OPEC said Tuesday.
Conventional non-OPEC crude production is expected to rise to at 50.5 million barrels a day in 2015 and will fall by nearly 2 million barrels a day to 48.6 million barrels a day over the following 15 years, according to a presentation held by OPEC's research director, Hasan Qabazard, in Riyadh.
Non-OPEC production stood at 46.8 million barrels a day in 2005, the presentation, entitled "Global Oil Outlook: OPEC's Perspective," showed.
A steep increase in the production of non-conventional oil such as tar sands will help non-OPEC countries boost overall oil output to 58.8 million barrels a day in 2030 from 49 million barrels a day in 2005, the report showed.
I never knew the Roman Empire was an oil producer. Guess I'll have to dust off my copy of Gibbon.
Our Petroducts still stand throughout the world.
I tend to agree. US oil production peaked because of a lack of will to produce our resources, not an actual lack of resources.
But this attitude did result in our declining petroleum production. Fortunately most of the world is not as foolish as we are.
We need to change this number: drill in the Gulf, in ANWAR, and in the wells we hvae capped by government fiat. IOpen new refineries. And open new nuclear power plants.
The “peak” is always 5+ years in the future.
If we did drill everywhere we could drill domestically and pumped enough oil to supply all our needs, how long would it be before production peaked and began to decline and we just had to buy oil from other countries? I realize that might be a hard question to answer with any degree of accuracy because we won’t know exactly what we have until we take it, but maybe you might know enough to hazard a guess. And by oil I don’t mean the fuel we could get from oil shale, just regular oil we pump out of the ground now.
Norway’s screwed. It’s socialist-like existence has depended on it’s oil production...and they’re 15 or so years from being the average country in Europe.
Yeah, I agree. Laser drilling technology and 3d mapping will help production quite a bit.
Although that’s not going to help America, because our politics reduce our production...and we depend on Mexico, Russia and the middle east...more and more, as time goes by.
I think alternatives are of interest for that reason. Our security can’t be in the hand’s of those countries. Needless to say, Europe will be dominated by the powers of Russia and the middle east. Thank god for Canada.
When we first went to Prudhoe Bay 9.6 Billion Barrels were estimated. (which was double the largest field ever found in North America) 36 Years of production from Prudhoe Bay field has produced 10.8 Billion Barrel with 2.5 Billion Barrel recoverable reserves remain. Within the entire state owned area between ANWR and NPRA 15.1 Billion Barrels produced and 6.5 Billion remaining in proven reserves. Also within this area are some heavy, shallow reservoirs that a decade ago were not even thought about in fields named West Sak, Schrader Bluff and Ugnu are believed to contain 23 to 32 billion barrels of oil. Thick heavy stuff that a decade ago wasn’t produceable. Now we have some wells producing from West Sak and the others are planned. It is a learning curve, but given access and existing infrastructure in the area, it is becoming economical.
So in this little area they thought they could get 9.6 and after decades of being here it may be closer to 50 billion barrels. Keep this in mind when hearing estimates prior to any exploration. The USGS in their typical conservative manner estimates the remaining oil in this area to be less than 4 billion barrels.
Their total onshore estimate is 46.4 billion barrels. Now, the Bakken Oil Shale deposit, a deposit that is produced with modern drilling and pumping techniques, not a theoritical processing of oil shale rock, is estimated to have 300 Billion Barrels of oil. They are drilling like crazy there in North Dakota and the USGS will be updating their assesment in a year or so.
The simple fact is you cannot know until we are given access to at least look. Recent large discoveries in the deep water Gulf of Mexico just show the exploration needs to be allowed.