Posted on 04/04/2007 6:29:49 PM PDT by NormsRevenge
NORTH COUNTY ---- Blame it on the sky-high housing prices. In all but one year of this decade, more people have moved out of San Diego County than have moved in from other parts of the state and nation. And, not surprisingly, say analysts, the trend accelerated during the last three years, with homes never more out of reach of the typical area family.
The total number of fleeing San Diego County residents reached a peak of 42,034 last year, eighth highest among all U.S. counties, according to new Census Bureau statistics. That exodus ---- focusing on the 12 months that ended July 1 ---- came on the coattails of a net domestic migration loss of 37,666 residents the previous year and a loss of 32,140 the year before that.
Still, the population is growing because births and immigrants combined outnumber the folks leaving for greener pastures within the United States.
"A lot of people are moving to Texas from here," said Darius Khoshnevis, owner of the U-Haul on Ninth Avenue in Escondido. "I think it's because of the housing market. They can buy a house there for less than half of what they would pay for one for here."
Texas isn't the only place they're headed, Khoshnevis said. Many are going to Arizona, Nevada and Utah as well, he said.
And droves are bound for points just across the county line.
The major coastal counties of San Diego, Orange and Los Angeles have been posting net domestic migration losses for years, and Riverside County has been capturing a large chunk of the movers. Last year alone, 58,051 more people moved into Riverside County than moved out, accounting for the lion's share of the county's overall population growth of 81,411, the census reported.
That coastal-to-inland movement vaulted Riverside County into fourth place among California's most populous counties, with a population of 2 million.
Fueling Riverside County
"We're fueling a lot of that growth," said Ed Schafer, senior demographer for the San Diego Association of Governments, a regional planning agency. "A lot of the people who are moving to Riverside are working in San Diego County. They are moving to Riverside because of the housing prices. It is just so expensive in San Diego County."
For more than a year, the median price of a single-family home in North San Diego County has hovered above $600,000, a price fewer than one in 10 San Diego County families can afford, according to local real estate officials.
Meanwhile, the ratio of people moving out of San Diego County to those moving in has reached such a feverish pace that truck rental companies are scrambling to keep up.
Jerry Mitchell, who owns the land that a Vista U-Haul business sits on, said, "We will be scrounging for one-way trucks this summer because there just aren't that many people moving in."
When it comes to the other U.S. counties that saw large a domestic migration out last year, Orleans Parish in the Hurricane Katrina-battered New Orleans area was tops with 226,718 people leaving.
Other losers include Los Angeles County, 183,063; Cook County, Ill. (Chicago), 91,693; Kings County, N.Y. (New York City), 53,878; Queens County, N.Y. (New York City), 49,617; St. Bernard Parish, La., 48,928; and Orange County, 46,199.
However, there were stark differences between the California counties and the storm-ravaged regions of the Gulf Coast. Both Louisiana parishes posted total population losses that nearly matched their domestic migration losses. But all three Southern California coastal counties posted overall population gains, census figures show.
In San Diego, Orange and Los Angeles counties, steady international immigration offset half of the loss of residents to other counties and other states. And babies more than made up for the rest.
As a result, San Diego County grew by 4,845 residents, the census stated.
"Our growth is being generated by natural increase," Schafer said. "This is what we have been telling people for a long time was going to happen."
Not in Kansas anymore
San Diego County already grew slower than the nation last decade, and last year's small increase put the county's rate at but a fraction of the nation's. Schafer said the county grew 0.17 percent in 2006, while the nation grew about 1 percent.
Whether that trend continues will depend largely on the housing market, Schafer said.
"I don't think we'll ever have housing costs that look like Kansas," he said. "But you know, if we lost like 25 percent of the value of homes, then the area would be competitive again in terms of housing."
In some ways, the slow growth rate paints a distorted picture of the region, he said, because San Diego's economy is still growing at a steady rate.
"If you really wanted to look at how the region works economically, you'd want to throw in half of Riverside County and a good portion of northern Baja (California)," Schafer said.
The association estimates that 40,000 people travel across the international border daily to jobs in San Diego County, and a 2002 survey found that 30,000 commuters drive south out of Temecula ---- and the numbers are growing by leaps and bounds.
Essentially, he said, southern Riverside County has become an extension of San Diego County's housing stock.
Between 2000 and 2006, San Diego County built 78,000 homes. That did not come close to keeping pace with the area's employment growth of 106,000 jobs, he said.
"Most of the homes that San Diegans are buying have been built outside San Diego," Schafer said.
Many people are totally frustrated with the lack of good help for use in the home (at low wages) so they are moving to areas where the custom still prevails.
San Diego county is going to improve as a consequence.
My brother bought a 48 foot sailboat and lives on it in San Diego. It only costs him $1500/month to drop anchor in the harbor there. He has to motor to the dock everyday to go to work.
Most of those who moved from San Diego, moved a few miles across the border into Riverside because homes are cheaper.
The majority still work in San Diego, their families are there, etc.
The cost of commute in money and time for an extra bedroom and bathroom & backyard is interinsting priorities.
I will stick with my 1 bdrm Apt in the heart of the city in San Diego any day.
I have a 2nd cousin and her husband who raised their 5 children in a small 2 bedroom 1 bath house in NJ.
The kids are all grads of Rutgers and good jobs.
Homes too expensive for native born, net population gain is immigrant.
Who is buying the overpriced homes? Poor immigrants?
Sumpin don’t compute.
And where did longtime resident and manufacturer Buck Knives move to? Why did they leave?
People aren’t just moving to Riverside they’re moving out of the state.
When you throw 20 people into a home, most of them generating income, housing becomes more affordable. Especially when you’re willing to live in your local less-than-desireable side of town.
No doubt a lot of these people moving were also renting.
I don't get it--why would people want to move out of those liberal Utopias?
That was one little mgr outfit in El Cajon.
The Military, Bio Teck, TeleComm, Etc, Etc, is bringing in thousands of of people. The contracts are big time.
Having the largest concentration of military in the world here is growing, with a third nuk aircraft carrier transferring here and many new comissioned ships arriving
now in the the next some months and more arriving.
High rise condos around me start at 1/2 million to 4 million a unit and they are sold before they are built.
Dozens of condos 25 to 42 stories high fill downtown with 30,000 new residents.
Aint computin’ here in Florida either.
Buck Knives! I left San Diego last year (guess I’m in that statistic) but today I’m visiting my stepdaughter who lives across the street from the old Buck Knives headquarters. I get misty everytime I go by.
You must note: more US citizens moving out of San Diego, rather than US citizens moving in from California or the rest of the nation.
Illegal aliens? moving in by the bushel backet.
Surprise surprise, just taking over the couties where Americans won’t live.
Thanks for pointing that out, Captain Obvious.
They don’t like to get mugged.
Their litter box is full. They need a new Conservative place to $hit in.
Prop 13 is basically rent control for homeowners. It keeps the availability of homes low.
San Diego County, Orange County, and yes, even Los Angeles County are among the best places to live in the entire country. Obviously I am not talking about the run down or gang areas. Anyone who would move to Riverside county after already living in one of the 3 counties I mentioned needs to undergo a complete battery of intelligence tests. Complain about the immigrants if you want, but at least they apparently have enough going for them that they recognize the superiority of the coastal counties, and they provide the means to live there. What happened to the competitive spirit which Americans used to be known by? A good head on your shoulders, a good education, and a good dose of hard work is the ticket of admission. In a few years we will see which folks had what it takes and which ones didn’t, and this is regardless of country of birth.
No, it's TAX control. Taxes were up to 8.5% of assessed value before it was passed. I want you to think what an annual $85,000 tax bill would do to the value of a million dollar home. The resulting real estate crash would take the nation's banks with it.
Now don't get me wrong. I think Prop. 13 is an abomination, not because of what it did, but because of the way it was done. The iniative process allowed the sheeple to keep the goodies coming from the Democrats without having to flush them because of the price.
*****Prop 13 is basically rent control for homeowners. It keeps the availability of homes low.*****
I live in a house that falls under the Prop 13 proviso and it is not rent control for homeowners. When I sell my house or descendents inherit it, the house will no longer be under Prop. 13. If I move I have to buy a house a comparable worth to make prop. 13 “transportable.” If I buy a house worth more than my present home I lose the Prop 13 advantage.
Each year as the homeowners of houses covered by Prop 13 die or move, less and less homes are covered by prop. 13.
The stock of prop 13 houses is therefore falling not growing. As I recall Prop 13 went into effect in the late 1970’s and since then less and less homes fall under it.
As for living in San Diego, it is true housing is expensive for those in the market. However, other conditions in the city ameliorate that expense. Heating and air conditioning are negligible. No expensive winter wardrobes, no snow tires, no storm windows on the house, no extremes of weather to contend with and pay for. It’s an easier life style.
We do have a commute time, but nothing like I’ve seen in other cities or comparable size.
San Diego has far more Defense contractors than most places
and G.D. is not missed
We rank in the top two for bioteck, and much more.
Since I don’t go to J in the B. I don’t care what they speak.
As far as the over 30,000 Iraqis here, most have degrees and are professionals. Most are also Chaldeans (Christians) and support Bush.
As far as Highway 5, 15, 8, 805, 94, etc, etc, who cares.
Lived here all my life and walk or take the bus or electric train. One of the major reasons I love living in the heart of the city near downtown.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
$1500 to drop anchor? Payable to whom?
Not sure. Slips had a long waiting list. Cost to drop anchor (in the harbor) was priced by location.
You are sick. I have never been in that place.
That tells me where you are coming from, you lost the argument so you bash by smearing.
It wasn’t housing prices that made us leave Riverside...it was the two burglaries, the carjacking in my driveway, the crime everywhere in the “community,” the unfriendly neighbors with the DJ set up playing loud music until 4 in the morning many times, the four hour a day commute my husband was enduring, the lack of safe places to shop, the high taxes, etc.
I’m so glad I didn’t move to Texas or the other states they list as being places where Californians are moving. There are too many California license plates here already. I get sick when someone says that Indy should change and do it “the way we did it in California.” Go back!
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