But would the Senate approve of a pro-life nominee to replace him? The Senate has a tiny de facto majority, and Bush does not have that much power due to him being a lame duck and Iraq. The odds of a pro-life, conservative nominee making it through the Senate is much lower than it once was.
Here’s the way I see it:
If we nominate a female who isn’t a Scalia type bombthrower (neither Roberts nor Alito was), I think we can retain Snowe and Collins. Specter owes Bush so he will vote yes for a decent nominee.
With Chafee gone I think we will have 0 defectors. That means we only need 1 vote from Nelson, Casey (who pledged to support Alito in his campaign), Landrieu (who is up for re-election in a very red state. Katrina wiped out the Democratic base there), and Byrd (who actively supported the last 2 nominees).