Iran Four Years From Atomic Bomb, Say Experts

The Telegraph (UK) ^ | 4-24-2007 | David Blair

[blam]

Iran four years from atomic bomb, say experts

By David Blair, Diplomatic Correspondent
Last Updated: 3:35am BST 24/04/2007

Iran's nuclear programme is facing such severe technical difficulties that it could take four years to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for one bomb and eight years to deploy an operational nuclear weapon, experts say.

Students hold placards supporting Iran's nuclear right

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's announcement on April 9 that uranium enrichment on an "industrial scale" had begun was "misleading" and the time-scale for success is likely to be longer than early estimates suggested.

"It's very difficult to enrich uranium," said Norman Dombey, emeritus professor of theoretical physics at Sussex University. "It calls for several different scientific and engineering disciplines. Iran hasn't yet shown that it has mastered the problem."

Iran's underground facility in Natanz has space for 3,000 centrifuges, the devices used to enrich uranium. Iran has told the International Atomic Energy Agency that only 1,312 have been installed so far.

Once all 3,000 are in place, the machines must be fitted together to form 18 cascades. Then technicians must introduce uranium in the form of gas into the centrifuges. The machines must then spin at 1,500 revolutions per second to separate out the uranium-235, the fissile material capable of producing the chain reaction unleashed by a nuclear bomb. Weapons grade uranium must be enriched to 90 per cent purity.

But the smallest particle of dust - even a fingerprint - can disrupt enrichment. Iran will have to spin all the centrifuges inside a vacuum without any interruption for a period of about one year.

If any machine breaks down - or if dust enters the system or if the power supply is lost - the process must halt and start again.

Prof Dombey estimates that Iran will need about two years simply to master the process of running centrifuges. Then, making allowances for interruptions caused by breakdowns, it could take another two years to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for one bomb.

Prof Dombey said: "At the moment, their programme doesn't constitute a threat. It would constitute a threat if they were enriching substantial amounts to more than five per cent and they're not. In fact they're not enriching anything very much. This talk about industrial scale enrichment is misleading."

Despite Mr Ahmadinejad's public threat to wipe it from the map, Israel also plays down the progress that Iran has made. On Sunday, Ehud Olmert, the prime minister, said: "Iran is far from attaining the technology threshhold and this country is not close to getting it, contrary to statements by its leadership."

An assessment by Israel's intelligence agency, Mossad, is believed to agree that Iran is three or four years away from success.

On top of these problems, Iran would still have to master the technology of building a nuclear warhead capable of delivery by a missile.

Mohammed ElBaradei, head of the International Atomic Energy Authority, has said that Iran may be eight years away from a having an operational nuclear weapons system.

If so, America is unlikely to resort to military strikes against Iran in the near future. The Bush administration may calculate that time is available for diplomatic efforts.

Gary Samore, vice-president of the Council on Foreign Relations, a US think tank, said: "Washington feels it has time to play out the diplomatic hand because Iran is having trouble solving technical problems with its centrifuge machines."

"The belief in Western intelligence circles is that a large portion of these machines are likely to break if Iran attempts to operate them at high speeds necessary for enrichment."

[dighton]

What we worked out sixty years ago stymies some here and now. The mind reels.

[Flavius]

is that over under

wonder if vegas has pool going

this could be fun

i say they have them, but they did not unpack them yet from the original packaging

[doc1019]

Depending on whom you listen to … Iran is “two months”, “six months”, “three years” … whatever; a preemptive stick is in order. Then the question disappears.

[headstamp]

Is this solely a technical problem for high grade enrichment or low grade enrichment for the power plant?

[Not now, Not ever!]

A sign written in English? yeh, right.

[KarlInOhio]

It took less than four years from the beginning of the Manhattan Project to the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Since Iran already is well on its way to developing the bomb and so much of the nuclear physics which the Manhattan Project had to discover is now readily available, anyone who comes up with a four year estimate for any halfway industrialized country with cash to develop a nuclear bomb is a liar, a fool or both.

[Rembrandt_fan]

All of this activity emanating from the Iranian nuclear program is a lot of smoke-and-mirrors misdirection, in my view. It simply doesn’t matter if the Iranians can make enough (or any) weapons-grade U-235. It only matters if the world believes they can, hence this great Iranian show of fierce scientific effort to build the bomb. I’m guessing the mullahs will wait for a believable amount of time—a year from now, say, or eighteen months or so—and then surprise the world with a highly visible and widely reported atomic bomb test much earlier than anticipated or projected by the intelligence sources identified in the article. No one could prove provenance after the fact, one way or the other, but the device will almost certainly be old Soviet or North Korean. I’m betting North Korean. Putin may not shrink from the prospect of a new Cold War, but I doubt very much he would risk a hot one.

[M. Espinola]

An Iranian arsenal of nuclear weapons is not the current threat to our troops in Iraq and Afghanistan. Iranian trained & armed jihadist infiltrators are murdering our troops, plus the mass slaughter of thousands of Iraqi civilians. That is more then enough reason Tehran’s top Shi’ite-nazis must be disposed of quickly.

[stephenjohnbanker]

1 1/2 years. Not 4.

[rjp2005]

Don't believe it.

AQ according to their "Seven Steps to..." plans a 2010 hit. Iran will be ready to collaborate with them by then. Two years and they'll have a functional device. One year to smuggle it in.

[Nathan Zachary]

Iran Four Years From Atomic Bomb, Say Experts

That's what the "experts" said 4 years ago. In all probability, they have several now. Does anyone really believe that Paki-Stan's Mullah mafia hasn't sold any to their Iranian "brothers in Jihad, all the world is for Allah" fundamentalist nutjobs?

[Nathan Zachary]

I was under the impression that U235 isn’t the only nuclear material that nukes can be made from, that other types and grades can and do make fine nuclear bombs.

[Mr. Quarterpanel]

There are only really 2 types of Nuclear weapons: Uranium and Plutonium.
Uranium bombs are big, heavy, require well over 100 pounds of U235 enriched to 90-95%, have relatively low yields (20 kilotons) and are highly radioactive. On the plus side they are very simple in design, and pretty much guaranteed to work every time.

Plutonium bombs, on the other hand, can be made very small, light, and boosted yields can be up to 100 kilotons. The downside is that they are very complicated, and require sophisticated shaped charges and nanosecond timing to detonate properly. North Korea demonstrated how hard this type of weapon is to get right, by messing it up.

[Rembrandt_fan]

I’m sure there’s any number of ways a non-hydrogen nuke can be produced not limited to U-235. I’m no scientist, so I can’t presume to hold forth on the engineering or theoretical aspects. If the Iranians are indeed making their own bomb and not purchasing a device via corrupt, amoral Russian scientists or insane North Korean dictators, what we would need to do is find out the details of the data supplied to the Iranians by the Khan network. The best way to do that, of course, is to interrogate Khan himself, but I don’t think the Pakistanis, who hold him in custody, are keen to help.