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A New Ice Age: The Day After Tomorrow?
Discover Magazine ^ | 05.22.2004 | by Brad Lemley

Posted on 04/28/2007 6:54:46 AM PDT by MNJohnnie

With all the hoopla surrounding the new environmental scare movie The Day After Tomorrow, and a media feeding frenzy trying to figure out if the events as portrayed in the film could really happen, we decided it might be helpful to republish the following article. It ran about two years ago as a cover story, in September 2002, and it became one of our best-selling issues on the newsstand. It is an unemotional, reporting tour de force by Brad Lemley that conveys the concerns of a number of scientists at the Woods Hole Institution in Massachussetts that indeed we may very well be facing a new ice age in the Eastern United States and Europe based on global warming. However, those scientists characterize that ice age as a “mini” event that might last 300 to 400 years. And they characterize that mini ice age as an event similar to one humanity has already suffered through that ended about 1850. Could it happen soon? Yes. Will it be as devastating as events portrayed in the movie? Highly unlikely, but not impossible.

–The editors

William Curry is a serious, sober climate scientist, not an art critic. But he has spent a lot of time perusing Emanuel Gottlieb Leutze's famous painting “George Washington Crossing the Delaware,” which depicts a boatload of colonial American soldiers making their way to attack English and Hessian troops the day after Christmas in 1776. “Most people think these other guys in the boat are rowing, but they are actually pushing the ice away,” says Curry, tapping his finger on a reproduction of the painting. Sure enough, the lead oarsman is bashing the frozen river with his boot.

(Excerpt) Read more at discovermagazine.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: albore; globalcooling; globalwarming; realscience
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To: MNJohnnie; OKSooner; honolulugal; Killing Time; Beowulf; Mr. Peabody; RW_Whacko; gruffwolf; ...

FReepmail me to get on or off


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21 posted on 04/28/2007 4:09:30 PM PDT by xcamel (Press to Test, Release to Detonate)
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To: MNJohnnie

Great Article!


22 posted on 04/28/2007 10:38:59 PM PDT by chaosagent (Remember, no matter how you slice it, forbidden fruit still tastes the sweetest!)
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To: Pyrthroes
We ARE overdue for an Ice Age, but expect it to begin ???? years from now and last about 300,000 years.....

The current temperature peak is right on schedule, though current temperatures seems to be about 2.5 degrees BELOW previous AVERAGE peak temperatures. So a few more years of “global warming caused by America’s SUV’s” ... Then 300,000 years of 1/2 mile thick Ice overlaying Manhattan, England, France, Canada, Japan, Sweden, Norway, Belgium, parts of Germany ....

23 posted on 04/29/2007 7:46:27 AM PDT by Robert A. Cook, PE (I can only donate monthly, but Hillary's ABBCNNBCBS continue to lie every day!)
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To: Robert A. Cook, PE

In re 300,000 years of glaciation et.al.:

No-one is expert on the future, but 300,000 years would represent a climatological anomaly on order of 2.50. Since at least the early Miocene (13-million years back), plate tectonics have separated Earth’s eastern from western hemispheres by North and South American continents. By accident of fate, land covers our South Pole while an Arctic Ocean prevails atop the North.

In combination, this configuration historically derives a well-defined cyclical pattern of recurrent glaciations (”ice ages”), which will only end when the two western continents separate sufficiently to re-integrate global atmospheric/oceanic currents— probably in about 25-million years. Let’s hope that North and South America drift together into temperate regions.

Aside from longterm geophysical aspects, the 800-year intra-solar cycle governs: At clockwork intervals, now from AD 1313 - 2113, Earth moves at shallow angles through an annular ring of dust (”snowball” residue of an ancient comet-train?) in the plane of the ecliptic between Mars and Venus. Little Ice Age minimums occured in 1713, precisely on 400-year schedule, when wolves froze to death in German forests and wine iced over at banquets in Versailles. From 1890, rebounding weather patterns (”climate” is too strong a term) are incrementally raising temperatures in stair-step fashion towards the 2113 peak. Meantime, interference from global oceanic warming due to escalating “magmatic” episodes (latest is discovery of enormous volcanic “traps” emerging over Indian Ocean floors) may accelerate the process.

“Models” are inherently “editorial”, subjective in that modelers choose which factors to include, and what weights to give them. “Facts” are relevent only in context and perspective, which in turn depend solely on valid historical data (in geophysical climatology, at any rate). Where modelers lack integrity, skewing scenarios for political or other ends, their conclusions are not right or wrong— just bumpf.

We cite fundamental processes of meteorolgy (”as warm air rises, cold layers flow underneath”), geophysics (”ocean warming drives an atmospheric evaporative/cooling process”), longterm plate-tectonic dispositions (for 10-million years, North and South America have sundered eastern from western hemispheres). Given the consistency of glaciations since the early Miocene, the fact that Earth is 1,500 years past-due to freeze, coincident with looming temperature peaks due intra-solar factors, our cooling projection stands credibly opposed to “modelers’” arbitrary alternative hypotheses.

To recap: We hypothesize that from 2010 - 2029 or so, Earth will experience a cooling phase akin to that of 1940 - 1979. We also propose that this 21st Century stands on the threshold of an overdue glacial onset commencing no later than 2113. Forget Argument by Stipulation (”the guru has spoken”): We welcome contingent, objective, rational evidence to the contrary, and would be overjoyed to see ourselves proved wrong.


24 posted on 04/29/2007 9:21:13 AM PDT by Pyrthroes
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To: Pyrthroes
You’re correct, I didn’t lookup the long-term Ice Age cycles: 300,000 is not correct.

Doesn’t the current (sudden) drop in geomagnetic intensity (and the dramatic “run” of the north geomagnetic pole from its previous “stable” position near the south Hudson Bay towards Siberia, combined with a dramatic sudden increase in sunspot intensity affect the recent temperature rise much more than continental drift?

That is: both continental drift and the earth’s rotation imbalance (precession) control long-term change: movement over hundred-thousand or tens-of-thousands years IS dominated by those factors - while geomagnetic changes (or sunspot activity) change temperatures over a decade-long interval?

25 posted on 04/29/2007 9:37:13 AM PDT by Robert A. Cook, PE (I can only donate monthly, but Hillary's ABBCNNBCBS continue to lie every day!)
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To: Robert A. Cook, PE

Gad, Sir, you’re way beyond my competence! All we can say is, that if in fact a major longterm climatological shift is nigh upon us, factors such as these will probably multiply in preparation. Indicative, but not definitive, for the notorious complexity of such factors becomes chaotic: Deterministic, not random, but nonetheless entirely unpredictable. (Lorenz, Mandeldrot, Prigogine are standard references.)

“Global Warming” as a hypothesis recalls Wegener’s “continental drift” from 1912. Any child can see that Africa and South America are a close fit, but geophysicists for decades assumed that continental landmasses mirrored deep-ocean bottoms. When bathyspheric probes revealed two radically opposed regimes, “plate tectonics” via Mid-Atlantic Ridge upwellings to subduction zones provided a mechanism validating Wegener on the spot.

Today’s missing element is, again, discovery of deep-ocean “magmatic” activity since at least 1850, affecting every major salt-sea area on Earth. Here is the absent longterm geophysical factor, unpredictable in detail but correlating global temperatures as strongly as Wegener did Africa with South America. No serious researcher can ignore such evidence.

“Greenhouse gas” emissions, sunspot cycles, virtually any conventional “warming” factor so far named, is difficult to track historically; can have only marginal geophysical effect; and lends itself to credulous misrepresentation in all non-chaotic “models”. Stand back, hoist a goblet with Louis XIV, and hope that as in AD 413 and 1313 humanity will experience another 800-year respite from Ice Time. Just don’t count on it.


26 posted on 04/29/2007 10:13:28 AM PDT by Pyrthroes
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