Posted on 04/28/2007 7:59:26 PM PDT by RobFromGa
FIRST PASS 4/29/07
EIGHTEEN MONTHS AWAY FROM NOV 2008 election, here’s a list of the 33 Senate races. The GOP is defending 21 seats, and the Dems defend 12.
THere are 67 Senate seats that are not up for election. The GOP starts with 28 carryover seats, and the Dems start with 39 (counting the 2 liberal independents).
I am just getting into these contests and up to speed regarding many of them, there might be errors here, and I look to get input from fellow Freepers in order to update this information. I plan to put up a new thread in November 2007 with the updates and information on the various Senate primaries.
There are another 18 seats that are essentially SAFE, barring some major change of events between now and November 2008, 12 for the GOP and 6 for the Dems.
SAFE GOP SEATS [12]
AK- (R= current seatholder)- Stevens safe
AL- R- Sessions safe
GA- R- Chambliss safe
ID- R- Craig* safe (may retire- should still be safe GOP)
KS- R- Roberts safe
KY- R- McConnell safe
MS- R- Cochran safe
NE- R- Hagel* safe (may retire)
OK- R- Inhofe safe
NM- R- Domenici safe
TX- R- Cornyn safe
WY- R- Enzi safe
GOP: 12 safe + 28 carryovers = 40 minimum GOP
SAFE DEM/INDEPENDENT SEATS [6]
DE- (D=current status)- Biden safe
IL- D- Durbin safe
MA- D- Kerry safe
MI- D- Levin safe
RI- D- Reed safe
WV- D- Rockefeller safe (I wish we could make this a GOP seat! somehow)
DEMS: 6 safe + 39 carryovers = 45 minimum DEM
The FIFTEEN SENATE “CONTESTS” (Ranked most likely GOP to least)
TN- R seat- ALEXANDER vs. ??? (80%)
SC- R seat- L. GRAHAM vs. ??? (80%) primary challenge
VA- R seat- J. WARNER vs. M. Warner ??? (70%) might retire
ME- R seat- COLLINS (RINO) vs. ??? (65%)
NC- R seat- DOLE vs. ??? (60%)
MN- R seat- COLEMAN vs. Franken (lol)??? (50%)
SD- D seat- Rounds? vs. JOHNSON (50%) Johnson health issues a big wild card
LA- D seat- ??? vs. LANDRIEU (45%)
AR- D seat- Huckabee? vs. PRYOR (45%)
OR- R seat- SMITH (RINO) vs. ??? (45%) Sizemore primary challenge?
CO- R seat- OPEN* Rayburn? (ALLARD self term limited retiring) vs. Udall? (45%)
NH- R seat- SUNUNU vs. ??? (40%)
MT- D seat- Racicot? vs. BAUCUS (35%)
IA- D seat- ??? vs. HARKIN (30%)
NJ- D seat- ??? vs. LAUTENBERG (20%) don’t waste money in NJ!
^^^^^^^^^^^^ We need 11 of these 15 seats to control the Senate 51-49 ^^^^^^^^^^^^
Our best chances to pickup seats: SD, LA, AR
Our toughest seats to defend: NH, CO, OR, MN
It is going to be a very difficult uphill battle to retake the Senate in 2008.
I have not spent a lot of time studying the races yet, so input from the various states is welcome.
I plan to post an Update thread in November 07, then as needed thereafter...
I have not spent a lot of time studying the races yet, so input from the various states is welcome.
And we will not be able to do it with a weak (ie, liberal) candidate on top of the ticket.
Pretty much, but I don't think Arkansas is a good chance.
Retirements are key.
*****Hagal IS NOT SAFE!!!!!**** Our state attorney general (R) will probably run against him, the first state poll out, Hagal LOOSES to Brunning by like 12%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
We can’t do it with a weak candidate of any ideology. We need someone who will energize the base, and also draw in the less politically motivated voters. I’m hoping that Thompson gets in and catches fire. The others do not excite me in any way. I feel that we likely lose with either Rudy, Romney, McCain or Hunter.
Levin is safe for now but there really hasn’t been much talk about who would mount a serious challenge. Too bad we can’t get Rick Santorum to move to Michigan.
I meant the seat is safe GOP, not that necessarily it would be HAGEL. Hagel still might retire. Sorry for not being more clear.
Who is most likely Dem challenger? Still Fahey?
I agree.
I don’t know if I could hold my nose and vote for any of the ‘top three.’
And it sure as heck is WAY TOO EARLY to be asking us to hold our noses and accept a non-conservative.
Funny...I haven’t read a word about a jackass running. I’ll have to keep a look out
We just need a likeable conservative with name recognition to step up to the plate in the next few months. That hasn’t happened yet?
I am liking Thompson. (Fred, not the other one)
He may not be at the plate yet, but he is warming up.
re: Thompson, we’re in agreement there as I said in #6.
I hope Hag runs just to get beat Jewels. He’s a loose cannon and Nebraska needs to show their disgust with him by throwing that RINO out on his ear.
Oh, thank God for that!!! Note: This is NOT a ping to be on the list...
What’s your point?
“NE- R- Hagel* safe (may retire)”
We should be so lucky!
Here is my take on some of them-
AL- Democrats are trying to get state Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks to run, and he would be a credible candidate, although Jeff Sessions would still be the favorite.
AR- Right now, it looks like Mark Pryor will face a third-tier challenge from former U.S. Attorney Chuck Banks.
CO- Democrats have definitely settled on liberal Congressman Mark Udall. By contrast, the GOP field is very unsettled. The GOP establishment is reaching out to state Attorney General John Suthers, who has made no decision.
ID- Will Senator Larry Craig seek reelection? Democrat ex-Congressman Larry LaRocco is running, but everything would have to break his way for him to win.
IA- It now looks like Senator Tom Harkin won’t face a serious challenge. Too bad, as he’s a near-Marxist.
LA- All bets are off until the 2007 Governor’s race, which looks very promising. Possible candidates to face Senator Mary Landrieu are ex-state Elections Commissioner Suzanne Terrell, Congressman Richard Baker, and Secretary of State Jay Dardenne, with Terrell seeming most likely to run.
ME- RINO Senator Susan Collins will probably be challenged by ultralib Congressman Tom Allen, a former Portland Mayor. Collins remains the front-runner, but this is a top-tier race.
MA- Amazingly, John Kerry is unpopular in his home state. Whether it will matter remains to be seen, as he won’t be challenged in the primary and the state GOP has seen better days.
MN- Senator Norm Coleman will be challenged by comedian Al Franken, who IMHO is the Katherine Harris of the 2008 Senate elections.
MT- Will Senator Max Baucus be challenged by Congressman Denny Rehberg? Right now, it doesn’t appear all that likely.
NE- This is intriguing. RINO Senator Chuck Hagel will be challenged by state Attorney General Jon Bruning, who claims to be leading in internal polls. On the Democrat side, Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey, a Ben Nelson ally, is waiting in the wings.
NH- Senator John Sununu is in big trouble politically. Will ex-Governor Jeanne Shaheen run again? Polls currently show her ahead.
NJ- Senator Frank Lautenberg is unpopular. But, once again, NJ Republicans can’t get a strong candidate to run. Right now, wealthy developer Anne Evans Estabrooks appears to be the favorite of the state RINO establishment, in large part because she can self-fund her race, which means they won’t have to.
NM- Suddenly, Pete Domenici has some doubts about his prospects, due to charges about him badgering a U.S. Attorney. It appears to have caused some damage, but unless more comes out of it, it probably won’t be fatal.
NC- To the surprise of the GOP, Senator Elizabeth Dole is showing shaky poll numbers. Democratic Congressman Brad Miller is considering a race.
OR- Senator Gordon Smith is worried about his reelection prospects and is pandering shamelessly to what he considers to be “the middle” in Oregon. Possible Democrat opponents include Congressman Earl Blumenauer and party-switching state Senator Ben Westlund.
SD- Two questions. First, will ailing Senator Tim Johnson seek reelection? Second, will Governor Mike Rounds run against him? No one knows the answer to either. One one hand, Johnson’s condition precludes any criticism of him without risking a backlash. On the other hand, if Johnson doesn’t improve dramatically over the next year, questions about his ability to be Senator could sink him.
TX- Senator John Cornyn is polling poorly. Lucky for him, the state Democrats are in terrible shape. Right now, it looks like only former state Controller John Sharp would be a strong opponent, and he has made no moves to run so far.
VA- Will 2008 be Warner vs. Warner II, the sequel? Until we know the answer, all other questions are off. Ex-Governor Mark Warner would be difficult to beat, but it’s not clear whether he’ll make the plunge. If John Warner retires, the GOP nominee will be Congressman Tom Davis, but conservatives aren’t enthusiastic about him.
Thanks for the synopses of the races CF!
Either pick in Montana or Virginia shouldn’t be considered an error, since the races ended up essentially toss-ups, with the break going to the democrats. It reminded me of 2000, where we lost a bunch of seats very narrowly.
Missouri was a real bummer too. Good thing TN held on.
John Warner (RINO-VA) has said he is not retiring. If control of the Senate came down to the VA seat and mine were THE deciding vote, I still couldn’t bring myself to vote for John Warner.
It’ll be interesting if Mark Warner (D) former governor of enormous popularity were to challenge him(not that I’d vote for him, either). He may be nabbed yet for the Dems’ VP nomination, tho, to put a popular southern D on the ticket. He originally entered the presidential fray and almost immediately pulled out. Has a personal fortune to invest, should he go that way, and could carry VA’s electoral votes.
It's got that American Idol feel to it. (not)
LOL, we have a better chance of getting rid of 'The Great Compromise,' better known as the Senate as a whole and modifying the Constitution than MI voters do dumping Levin and throwing away this broken part.
Levin, in a word, is evil.
MA actually has a new candidate, speak to Bocopar, he is the oracle.
Jeanne Shaheen in NH is so dumb that my seventh grader could beat her.. but don;t rule her out..NH is full of Massholes fleeing taxes. They are (the Massholes that is) too stupid to realize that they are re-creating Mass-hole-dom by voting as is “born Democrat”.
Poor NH. That’s why they call us “MassHoles”!!
Here’s my amateur opinion:
TN (Alexander), SC (Graham), NC (Dole) are SAFE. ME (Collins) is a very likely hold. Depending on who runs against Coleman (MN) I think he has better than 50% chance against Franken and at best a 50% chance against a standard liberal Dem candidate. OR (Smith) is probably 50% best case. Probably right about MT - we likely have a 1 in 3 chance of picking it up. VA is vulnerable if Warner retires or in a Warner vs. Warner contest. SD may backfire if the “health card” is played. Graham will not lose the SC primary. LA may be the best hope for a pick-up. NJ: Kean Jr. likely has a better chance at governor.
Cornyn (TX) is not a given either.
His own staff is somewhat freaked right now. And that is the staff in the regional offices where they actually hear from the people. Some well known and very accurate consultants are pointing to some problems as well.
Looks like the guy who funded all the dem candidates in Bexar County (San Antonio) BY HIMSELF...may put in against him. This guy has a track record of playing hard ball.
He has been known to send people out and break the law by stealing things from staffers’ trash at their homes. He employed this trick when he stepped in to get Sanchez a boost when he ran against Perry. Typical South Texas Lawyer.
How about Curt Schilling vs. Kerry?
I would like to see three very elderly retire before some young whipper snapper knocks them out. That is Stevens, Dominici, and Warner.
—How about Curt Schilling vs. Kerry?—
Or LeKerry’s favorite player, ‘Manny Ortez’.
Of course I can’t remember the source, but it rang kinda plausable for Michigan. Karl Lenin will run for the ‘08 reelection, then decide close to the end of Clueless Jenny’s term as governor in ‘10 that he no longer wants to be in the Senate due to age, etc. Clueless appoints herself to the seat, her husband elitist Dan then runs for the governor slot in ‘10. Elitest Dan Mulhern is the real brains, or lack thereof, in the current Clueless administration. The adoring Michigan kool aid drinkers elect him governor, and subsequently her in ‘14 to the senate seat in her own right. That is, if Clueless doesn’t got a spot as some secretariat (commerce?) in the Clinton Administration. Of course, the Michigan GOP is doing absolutely nothing in the meantime to derail any such plans, or any plans by any democrat for that matter. The head of the Michigan GOP, Saul Anuzis does have time to attack Ann Coulter for calling out limp wrist Edwards however.
Good job, Rob. Thanks for the ping. I look forward to updates in the months to come. BTW, I think Cornyn,(R-TX) is safe.
Michigan is a tough spot to get a conservative elected. I can’t explain it except for 1. Detroit and 2. unions 3. the incorrect media depiction of conservatives as uncaring about JoeSixpack worker.
They seem to think that the Dems have their best interests at heart even though their prescriptions are what have brought about the stagnant economy in Michigan.
Like everywhere else, the conservatives need a candidate who can express his ideals plainly to the people and go around the media filter. Without pandering to the left.
I hope Texas is safe, I’d hate to take him off the list. Immigration Reform is likely the big issue that could change Texas.
What’s this guy’s name? Bonilla’s lost was a well orchestrated fluke - Cyros Rodriguez is a one termer.
I think we're looking at a 44-56 Senate for 2009-2011, at least.
The Senate in 2008 will be like the Senate in 2002, a real knock down drag out fight for control.
With Guiliani, the NJ seat comes into play. In a normal year, Kean would have won in 2006, and with Guiliani carrying the state, Kean will win in 2008.
An early indicator would be candidate recruitment. This will start, this year, in LA, where a win in the Governor’s race will encourage the GOP for next year’s Senate race there and elsewhere.
The next steps will be: AR, MT and SD, where the obvious candidates need to step up to the plate. In 2006, some of the obvious candidates stayed on the sidelines knowing how tough that year was going to be for us.
With a resumption of vigorous economic growth, the start of troop withdrawals from Iraq as we turn that country’s future over to the people of it, with Guiliani at the top of the ticket, and a complementary running mate such as Pawlenty or Thompson, and with strong candidates for the Senate seats that are in play, we’re talking of a return not only of Republican control, but a resumption of the Republican agenda that has gotten sidetracked during the past several years.
What we cannot have is a non-fighter at the top of the ticket. Whoever is there must, like RUDY HAS BEEN DOING, continually attack Dems and not Bush and not other Republicans. If the fire is aimed at the Dems, it will set ablaze the grassroots and many of these seats are capable of being taken. If the top of the ticket is lackluster, regardless of his "issues," it's over.
Disagree on Rudy. I like Fred, but until he actually enters the race, Rudy is doing fine.
I think Rudy is too divisive to win, and his positions on the issues are too liberal to gain a strong following in the base.
I read an article a while back that explained the Rudy phenomonon like this:
After 9-11 Rudy and Bush 43 both received huge boosts to their popularity, into the 90%+ range. Bush has had to take actions in the real world that have caused his numbers to drop steadily, whereas Rudy has been able to maintain a lot of his goodwill by not having to actually DO anything.
As Rudy gets put on the spot, and they ask him where he agrees with unpopular Bush policies and actions, and his numbers will drop among those who like him because of 9-11. Educate the base that he is not committed to the 2nd Amendment, and that he is pro-choice, and his decisions on judges are going to be questioned.
Especially since the next President is going to likely have a hostile Dem Senate, it is going to be almost impossible to get a Constitutionalist seated in the SCOTUS. This is likely to be a problem at least until the 2010 Midterms.
I do NOT have a good feeling about our chances for Conservative replacements for the next two SCOTUS vacancies that are likely in the next four years (Stevens, Ginsberg).
I think we’re looking at a 44-56 Senate for 2009-2011, at least.
That is really depressing because they could have 60 veto vote with getting four RINOs to join them. That might take some work for them but it could happen. If that happens we might as well leave America. lol.
Actually, I am in favor of Rudy running for president.
... as long as he brings all of his followers with him when he endorses the victorious conservative Republican nominee.
I’m a bit of a pessimist about 2008, but I find it inconceivable that John Cornyn could lose. Democrats haven’t won a statewide race in Texas since 1994, and federal races are even more out of reach for them. There’s no one who can beat him and Texans are unimpressed by big-spending Democrat candidates.
You are right!
I was planning to move to NH (I currently reside in Massholechusetts). Now I figure “why bother”? It’s just more of the same, or at lease it will become more of the same. If Sununu loses next year, NH is lost forever (or at least the next 30+ years). The Massholes have really taken their toll on NH.
Perhaps Giuliani could be Fred Thompson’s running mate. I’m convinced that if Thompson is the nominee, he needs someone from a northern tier state to run with him.
I think the last election showed it's NOT about "actions." It's about rhetoric. The GOP laid down and rolled over for basically five years. No charge was answered; they NEVER went on political offense.
This is PRECISELY where, so far, Rudy is beating all other GOP candidates. He is perceived by a large number of people as being "on offense" against the Dems. We at FR argue issues, but the people out in the "streets" argue perceptions. You'd be astounded at the pro-life, pro-gun people I talk to routinely who are either excited about Rudy or say, "I can live with him. Anybody but Hillary/Obama."
It's too soon to try to figure the impact of a presidential candidate on senate seats. It will all come down to whether the GOP is perceived to be on offense or defense. If the latter, they will lose huge. If the former, they can pick up ground. Remember, we saw things turn 180 degrees in just two years.
Let’s just say Rudy wins the nomination, then wins the general by winning NJ, PA, OH, and possibly even NY. Ask yourself what that would do to those who say that ONLY conservatives in the Reagan mold can win.
If Fred doesn’t get in very soon, the only shot he will have will be as Rudy’s running mate.
Larry, I respect your views, but I think it is a big stretch to call Rudy a Conservative. Tough on crime, tough on terrorists moderate would be my description.
The country is divided at present, there is basically about 30% liberal socialist anti-War types, there are about 30% big C Conservatives- social and fiscal, and about 40% in the middle that vote on who they agree with and like who doesn’t scare them too much. (The Libertarians fall in this middle group— they are fiscal conservative small government believers, but against legislation of personal morality types which puts them at odds with the social conservative agenda on abortion, drugs, and usually gay rights)
In order for a Conservative to win, he needs to pick up a big chunk of the middle. Same for the Liberals. Someone already in the middle like Rudy needs to pick up some from the left and/or the right to win, and that is what he is trying to do— pick up some of the right with fiscal and security issues, and some of the left with some social issues. But that doesn’t make him a big C Conservative.
If we don’t get a big C Conservative in the race that can pick up some of the middle due to likeability and name recognition— like Thompson— that is when Rudy becomes the only option to beat the liberal Democrats. And if he emerges from the primary as the GOP nominee, I will work to get him elected. But we still have a chance to do better IMHO.
On the left, I don’t see Hilllary or Obama drawing in a lot of the middle, unless the candidate is an unlikeable and/or unknown Conservative, which is what the media is going to try to paint any Conservative as, its on page one of their playbook.
Michigan is a tough spot, no doubt. But, we have the MIGOP that is totally ineffectual. Karl Lenin, Bart Stupidak, Debbie Stabemall, Clueless Jenny are target rich environments. On the Monday after Ann Coulter made her alleged horrible statement about the faggot John Edwards, The MIGOP chairman Saul Anuzis appeared on WJR radio which is a 50,000 watt blowtorch listened to all over the Midwest. I can no longer remember the totally asinine statement that Karl Lenin had made over the weekend probably on the democrat t.v. program Meet the Depressed. At any rate, Anuzis gets asked about Coulter’s comment and launches into what a terrible thing it was. I would have, you would have, any politician in his right mind would have said something like, “you know what, I don’t know the details about Coulter, I’m busy focusing on getting Michigan Republicans elected. Did you hear the absolutely idiotic comments that Karl Lenin made on .....?” Nope, can’t do that. Can’t point out that Clueless Jenny is holding the handle on the flusher getting ready to push. Can’t point out that the “conservative democrat” Bart Stupak favors abortion in all its forms, and how reprehensible that is, nope, Coulter bad.
I’m sorry to belabor Michigan, but it angers me a lot. On the issue of the media. The People’s Detroit Free Press, The People’s Detroit News, and the other’s “big” city papers aren’t going to give the Republicans a fair deal. I travel around the state a lot. There are a lot of small local papers that will print almost anything within reason even if they are owned by Stalin Lites. The MIGOP doesn’t even bother to get press out to these organizations.
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