Posted on 04/28/2007 7:59:26 PM PDT by RobFromGa
FIRST PASS 4/29/07
EIGHTEEN MONTHS AWAY FROM NOV 2008 election, here’s a list of the 33 Senate races. The GOP is defending 21 seats, and the Dems defend 12.
THere are 67 Senate seats that are not up for election. The GOP starts with 28 carryover seats, and the Dems start with 39 (counting the 2 liberal independents).
I am just getting into these contests and up to speed regarding many of them, there might be errors here, and I look to get input from fellow Freepers in order to update this information. I plan to put up a new thread in November 2007 with the updates and information on the various Senate primaries.
There are another 18 seats that are essentially SAFE, barring some major change of events between now and November 2008, 12 for the GOP and 6 for the Dems.
SAFE GOP SEATS [12]
AK- (R= current seatholder)- Stevens safe
AL- R- Sessions safe
GA- R- Chambliss safe
ID- R- Craig* safe (may retire- should still be safe GOP)
KS- R- Roberts safe
KY- R- McConnell safe
MS- R- Cochran safe
NE- R- Hagel* safe (may retire)
OK- R- Inhofe safe
NM- R- Domenici safe
TX- R- Cornyn safe
WY- R- Enzi safe
GOP: 12 safe + 28 carryovers = 40 minimum GOP
SAFE DEM/INDEPENDENT SEATS [6]
DE- (D=current status)- Biden safe
IL- D- Durbin safe
MA- D- Kerry safe
MI- D- Levin safe
RI- D- Reed safe
WV- D- Rockefeller safe (I wish we could make this a GOP seat! somehow)
DEMS: 6 safe + 39 carryovers = 45 minimum DEM
The FIFTEEN SENATE “CONTESTS” (Ranked most likely GOP to least)
TN- R seat- ALEXANDER vs. ??? (80%)
SC- R seat- L. GRAHAM vs. ??? (80%) primary challenge
VA- R seat- J. WARNER vs. M. Warner ??? (70%) might retire
ME- R seat- COLLINS (RINO) vs. ??? (65%)
NC- R seat- DOLE vs. ??? (60%)
MN- R seat- COLEMAN vs. Franken (lol)??? (50%)
SD- D seat- Rounds? vs. JOHNSON (50%) Johnson health issues a big wild card
LA- D seat- ??? vs. LANDRIEU (45%)
AR- D seat- Huckabee? vs. PRYOR (45%)
OR- R seat- SMITH (RINO) vs. ??? (45%) Sizemore primary challenge?
CO- R seat- OPEN* Rayburn? (ALLARD self term limited retiring) vs. Udall? (45%)
NH- R seat- SUNUNU vs. ??? (40%)
MT- D seat- Racicot? vs. BAUCUS (35%)
IA- D seat- ??? vs. HARKIN (30%)
NJ- D seat- ??? vs. LAUTENBERG (20%) don’t waste money in NJ!
^^^^^^^^^^^^ We need 11 of these 15 seats to control the Senate 51-49 ^^^^^^^^^^^^
Our best chances to pickup seats: SD, LA, AR
Our toughest seats to defend: NH, CO, OR, MN
It is going to be a very difficult uphill battle to retake the Senate in 2008.
I have not spent a lot of time studying the races yet, so input from the various states is welcome.
I plan to post an Update thread in November 07, then as needed thereafter...
I have not spent a lot of time studying the races yet, so input from the various states is welcome.
And we will not be able to do it with a weak (ie, liberal) candidate on top of the ticket.
Pretty much, but I don't think Arkansas is a good chance.
Retirements are key.
*****Hagal IS NOT SAFE!!!!!**** Our state attorney general (R) will probably run against him, the first state poll out, Hagal LOOSES to Brunning by like 12%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
We can’t do it with a weak candidate of any ideology. We need someone who will energize the base, and also draw in the less politically motivated voters. I’m hoping that Thompson gets in and catches fire. The others do not excite me in any way. I feel that we likely lose with either Rudy, Romney, McCain or Hunter.
Levin is safe for now but there really hasn’t been much talk about who would mount a serious challenge. Too bad we can’t get Rick Santorum to move to Michigan.
I meant the seat is safe GOP, not that necessarily it would be HAGEL. Hagel still might retire. Sorry for not being more clear.
Who is most likely Dem challenger? Still Fahey?
I agree.
I don’t know if I could hold my nose and vote for any of the ‘top three.’
And it sure as heck is WAY TOO EARLY to be asking us to hold our noses and accept a non-conservative.
Funny...I haven’t read a word about a jackass running. I’ll have to keep a look out
We just need a likeable conservative with name recognition to step up to the plate in the next few months. That hasn’t happened yet?
I am liking Thompson. (Fred, not the other one)
He may not be at the plate yet, but he is warming up.
re: Thompson, we’re in agreement there as I said in #6.
I hope Hag runs just to get beat Jewels. He’s a loose cannon and Nebraska needs to show their disgust with him by throwing that RINO out on his ear.
Oh, thank God for that!!! Note: This is NOT a ping to be on the list...
What’s your point?
“NE- R- Hagel* safe (may retire)”
We should be so lucky!
Here is my take on some of them-
AL- Democrats are trying to get state Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks to run, and he would be a credible candidate, although Jeff Sessions would still be the favorite.
AR- Right now, it looks like Mark Pryor will face a third-tier challenge from former U.S. Attorney Chuck Banks.
CO- Democrats have definitely settled on liberal Congressman Mark Udall. By contrast, the GOP field is very unsettled. The GOP establishment is reaching out to state Attorney General John Suthers, who has made no decision.
ID- Will Senator Larry Craig seek reelection? Democrat ex-Congressman Larry LaRocco is running, but everything would have to break his way for him to win.
IA- It now looks like Senator Tom Harkin won’t face a serious challenge. Too bad, as he’s a near-Marxist.
LA- All bets are off until the 2007 Governor’s race, which looks very promising. Possible candidates to face Senator Mary Landrieu are ex-state Elections Commissioner Suzanne Terrell, Congressman Richard Baker, and Secretary of State Jay Dardenne, with Terrell seeming most likely to run.
ME- RINO Senator Susan Collins will probably be challenged by ultralib Congressman Tom Allen, a former Portland Mayor. Collins remains the front-runner, but this is a top-tier race.
MA- Amazingly, John Kerry is unpopular in his home state. Whether it will matter remains to be seen, as he won’t be challenged in the primary and the state GOP has seen better days.
MN- Senator Norm Coleman will be challenged by comedian Al Franken, who IMHO is the Katherine Harris of the 2008 Senate elections.
MT- Will Senator Max Baucus be challenged by Congressman Denny Rehberg? Right now, it doesn’t appear all that likely.
NE- This is intriguing. RINO Senator Chuck Hagel will be challenged by state Attorney General Jon Bruning, who claims to be leading in internal polls. On the Democrat side, Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey, a Ben Nelson ally, is waiting in the wings.
NH- Senator John Sununu is in big trouble politically. Will ex-Governor Jeanne Shaheen run again? Polls currently show her ahead.
NJ- Senator Frank Lautenberg is unpopular. But, once again, NJ Republicans can’t get a strong candidate to run. Right now, wealthy developer Anne Evans Estabrooks appears to be the favorite of the state RINO establishment, in large part because she can self-fund her race, which means they won’t have to.
NM- Suddenly, Pete Domenici has some doubts about his prospects, due to charges about him badgering a U.S. Attorney. It appears to have caused some damage, but unless more comes out of it, it probably won’t be fatal.
NC- To the surprise of the GOP, Senator Elizabeth Dole is showing shaky poll numbers. Democratic Congressman Brad Miller is considering a race.
OR- Senator Gordon Smith is worried about his reelection prospects and is pandering shamelessly to what he considers to be “the middle” in Oregon. Possible Democrat opponents include Congressman Earl Blumenauer and party-switching state Senator Ben Westlund.
SD- Two questions. First, will ailing Senator Tim Johnson seek reelection? Second, will Governor Mike Rounds run against him? No one knows the answer to either. One one hand, Johnson’s condition precludes any criticism of him without risking a backlash. On the other hand, if Johnson doesn’t improve dramatically over the next year, questions about his ability to be Senator could sink him.
TX- Senator John Cornyn is polling poorly. Lucky for him, the state Democrats are in terrible shape. Right now, it looks like only former state Controller John Sharp would be a strong opponent, and he has made no moves to run so far.
VA- Will 2008 be Warner vs. Warner II, the sequel? Until we know the answer, all other questions are off. Ex-Governor Mark Warner would be difficult to beat, but it’s not clear whether he’ll make the plunge. If John Warner retires, the GOP nominee will be Congressman Tom Davis, but conservatives aren’t enthusiastic about him.
Thanks for the synopses of the races CF!
Either pick in Montana or Virginia shouldn’t be considered an error, since the races ended up essentially toss-ups, with the break going to the democrats. It reminded me of 2000, where we lost a bunch of seats very narrowly.
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