Who Won CA Republican Presidential Debate? (SURVEY USA Poll says Rudy)

SurveyUSA ^ | 5/3/07

[LdSentinal]

Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA News Poll #12094

Geography Surveyed: California
Data Collected: 05/03/2007
Release Date: 05/03/2007 10:40 PM ET
Sponsors: KABC-TV Los Angeles, KGTV-TV San Diego, KPIX-TV San Francisco

Who Won CA Republican Presidential Debate? Former NYC Mayor Rudolph Giuliani convincingly won tonight's California debate among Republican candidates for President of the United States, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 317 state of California debate watchers. Giuliani was picked as the winner by 30% of those in CA who watched. Former MA Governor Mitt Romney, who was picked as the winner by 12%, and AZ Senator John McCain, who was picked as the winner by 11%, tied for 2nd place, far back from Giuliani. All other candidates were in single digits.

Who Has The Best Plan for Iraq? McCain did much better when CA debate watchers were asked specifically about which Republican has the best plan for Iraq. 20% of CA debate watchers say McCain has the best plan for Iraq, which was only slightly behind Giuliani, who was picked by 25% as having the best Iraq plan.

Who Has The Best Solution for Immigration? Giuliani was seen as having the best solution for immigration reform by 31% of CA viewers. No one else was close.

Exactly Who in CA Watched? 51% of debate viewers were white. 28% of debate viewers were Hispanic. 15% of debate viewers were Asian. 45% of debate viewers were Republican. 30% of debate viewers were Democrats. 22% of debate viewers were Independent. 43% of debate viewers were Pro-Life. 53% of debate viewers were Pro-Choice.

Filtering: 2,400 CA adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA immediately following tonight's 05/03/07 Presidential Debate among 10 candidates for the Republican nomination. Of the 2,400 CA adults interviewed, 317 said they had watched the debate and were included in this survey. Margin of sampling error among the 317 debate watchers is +/- 5.6%. For comparison purposes, 1 in 3 South Carolinians watched the Democratic debate, compared to 1 in 8 Californians who watched the Republican debate. Californians far less engaged in political process than Carolinians, at this stage.

Caution: The tiny subset of Californians who watched a Republican presidential debate 9 months from the CA Primary and 18 months from the General Election may not mirror the adult population of the United States. The perceived winner of a debate among 10 Republicans may or may not benefit from sustainable momentum.

1	Asked of 2400 adults
	Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 1.4%

Did you watch tonight's Republican presidential debate?

13%	Yes
86%	No
1%	Not Sure

2	Asked of 317 debate watchers
	Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 5.6%

Who won the debate?

4%	Brownback
8%	Gilmore
30%	Giuliani
4%	Huckabee
7%	Hunter
11%	McCain
12%	Romney
2%	Paul
4%	Tancredo
2%	Thompson
16%	Not Sure

3	Asked of 317 debate watchers
	Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 5.6%

Based on what you saw tonight, who has the best plan for Iraq?

4%	Brownback
9%	Gilmore
25%	Giuliani
4%	Huckabee
8%	Hunter
20%	McCain
10%	Romney
3%	Paul
1%	Tancredo
1%	Thompson
15%	Not Sure

4	Asked of 317 debate watchers
	Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 5.6%

Based on what you saw tonight, who has the best solution for immigration?

4%	Brownback
8%	Gilmore
31%	Giuliani
4%	Huckabee
8%	Hunter
11%	McCain
8%	Romney
1%	Paul
8%	Tancredo
1%	Thompson
16%	Not Sure

x	Complete Interactive Crosstabs
i	Statement of Methodology
!	© 2007 SurveyUSA / Contractual Obligations

[roses of sharon]

All would make better Presidents than the Hillary/Obama/MSM/UN, ticket.

[kinoxi]

They always tell me how to vote. /s

These surveys are easier to do in 'urban' areas. They tend to lean dem so they will naturally tend to lean Rudy.

[sionnsar]

Who could “win” such a biased piece of trash?

[bnelson44]

poll of 317 state of California debate watchers

[South40]

Thankfully, Kalifornia isn’t alone in choosing our next president.

[Hostage]

Ghoulianette got a whopping 30%!!!

Wow! Just Wow!

[unspun]

“Who Has The Best Solution for Immigration? Giuliani was seen as having the best solution for immigration reform by 31% of CA viewers. No one else was close.”

Did he even say anyhing about immigration reform?

[unspun]

Funny, the results you can get from a focus group smoking dope.

[napscoordinator]

This poll is bunk. The only person who should be at the top of the list is Romney who clearly won the debate! I was NOT a Romney supporter until last night. He was incredible.

[FreeInWV]

I’m sure the numbers are the same as they were before the debate in CA. Those people live in their own world.

[bethtopaz]

I agree with you! I have been impressed with Romney from the start. People let his good looks get in the way. If you close your eyes and listen to his words — he makes complete sense! Mitt 2008!

[This Just In]

“Those people live in their own world.”

Those people live in their own solar system.

[South40]

This poll is bunk.

With 1% saying they're not even sure if they watched it you just might be right. lol!

Did you watch tonight's Republican presidential debate?

13% Yes
86% No
1% Not Sure

[sionnsar]

Rob Davis won! Rob Davis won! Rob Davis won! Rob Davis won! Rob Davis won! Rob Davis won! Rob Davis won! Rob Davis won! Rob Davis won! Rob Davis won! Rob Davis won! Rob Davis won! Rob Davis won! Rob Davis won! Rob Davis won! Rob Davis won! Rob Davis won! Rob Davis won! Rob Davis won! Rob Davis won! Rob Davis won! Rob Davis won! Rob Davis won! Rob Davis won! Rob Davis won! Rob Davis won! Rob Davis won! Rob Davis won! Rob Davis won! Rob Davis won! Rob Davis won! Rob Davis won!

Okay, he's not running and you don't know who he is.

Neither do I. I made up the name.

But one gets tired of the FRbots sounding off on these threads.

Good night all. I've had enough.

[napscoordinator]

With 1% saying they’re not even sure if they watched it you just might be right. lol!

That is hilarious, but actually I am surprised it is not more like 50 percent. Our country is just so sad overall (the people).

[Jeff Gordon]

All ten of them are winners just for having the balls to debate on MSNBC with the uber-liberal Chris Matthews hosting.

Compare that to John Edwards who refuses to attend debates to be held on FoxNews.

[South40]

It is sad, sad and disturbing.

[mickie]

Had to work, didn't see debate. Do you think C-Span will repeat it?
Got to get Tivo.

[South40]

I have Tivo; it is awesome.

That aside, here is the schedule for C-SPAN.

[Enduring Freedom]

I’m Just Waitin’ On A Fred

Watching girly-men go passing by
It ain’t the latest thing
I’m just standing in a doorway
I’m just trying to make some sense
Out of these girly-men go passing by
The tales of sellout men
I’m not waiting on the Rinos
I’m just waiting on a Fred

His smile relieves a heart that grieves
Remember what I said
I’m not waiting on the Rinos
I’m just waiting on a Fred
I’m just waiting on a Fred

Don’t need a whore
I don’t need no boozer
Don’t need a Mormon priest
But I need someone I can cry to
I need someone to protect me
Making war and breaking heads
It is a game for few
But I’m not waiting on the Rinos
I’m just waiting on a Fred

[anonsquared]

The Republicans won.

They were not afraid to go toe to toe with uber-liberal Chris Matthews, whilst the Democrats still have not come out from under the bed since they were asked to appear with Brit Hume.

[TheBethsterNH]

Chris Mathews won!!! LOL He actually didn’t do too many hap shots.

[Let's Roll]

Yes, but the dims are certain they could handle Ahm-a-nutjob. It’s just Brit Hume that’s so scary. Afraid of Brit “always a gentleman” Hume.

Incredible.

[mickie]

Many thanks!

[ThomasThomas]

Rio Linda

[South40]

lol!

[Carry_Okie]

With 86% of the respondents not having watched the debate, how are these meaningful results?

[Haroldson]

"Exactly Who in CA Watched? 51% of debate viewers were white. 28% of debate viewers were Hispanic. 15% of debate viewers were Asian. 45% of debate viewers were Republican. 30% of debate viewers were Democrats. 22% of debate viewers were Independent. 43% of debate viewers were Pro-Life. 53% of debate viewers were Pro-Choice.

Of course Rudy "won" as only 45% of those surveyed identified themselves as Republicans. Rudy appeals most to the Dems and California's liberal "independents."

[conservative in nyc]

Of course Rudy "won" as only 45% of those surveyed identified themselves as Republicans. Rudy appeals most to the Dems and California's liberal "independents."

Try again. I know facts don't seem to matter much around here any more if they are favorable to candidates we don't like, but according to the poll's internals, 33% of the California Republicans who watched the debate, 34% of the Democrats and 19% of the Independents thought Giuliani won. Moreover, 32% of the California CONSERVATIVES and 32% of the state's moderates who watched the debate thought Rudy won, but only 24% of the self-professed liberals did.

[conservative in nyc]

With 86% of the respondents not having watched the debate, how are these meaningful results?

They are meaningful results for the persons polled - Californians who watched the Republican candidates debate today. Nothing more. Nothing less.

[Carry_Okie]

With 86% of the respondents not having watched the debate, how are these meaningful results?

When I asked my fourteen year old daughter (FReeper NattieShea) about this meaningless push poll, she correctly surmised that the media would use it as follows:

In a survey of 2400 respondents, Survey USA reports that Rudy Giuliani handily won the debate among the Republican candidates for President last night. The margin for error was 1.4%.

Home schooled kid. :-)

[Carry_Okie]

Moreover, 32% of the California CONSERVATIVES and 32% of the state's moderates who watched the debate thought Rudy won, but only 24% of the self-professed liberals did.

Self-professed conservatives in California are far from what is objectively so described.

[California Patriot]

Self-professed conservatives in California are probably at least as conservative as those elsewhere. It’s not as easy to be a conservative here, so we have some very, very good ones.

[California Patriot]

I think the whole poll is nonsense. It’s debatable whether or not Rudy did terribly. But he did not do particuarly well, and that was clear.

[Carry_Okie]

Self-professed conservatives in California are probably at least as conservative as those elsewhere.

Not hardly. You have only to review the hundreds of recall threads with supporters of Arnold Schwarzenegger calling themselves "true conservatives."

[Lancey Howard]

LMAO!!
Obviously, the respondents didn’t watch the debate.

[conservative in nyc]

Self-professed conservatives in California are far from what is objectively so described.

If that's what you want to believe, then feel free to believe it. After 2006, I am not going to discount polls just because I don't like the results.

By the way, Giuliani was considered the winner of the debate among debate-watching Californians who are pro-life (25%) AND pro-choice (33%). And you cannot argue that Giuliani's lead in this poll is statistically insignificant (it's NOT - Giuliani's lead is statistically significant even if you SUBTRACT the 5.6% MOE from his total, and add the 5.6% MOE to Romney's). It is what it purports to be - a poll of 317 Californians who watched tonight's debate, with a margin of error of 5.6%.

[conservative in nyc]

I think the whole poll is nonsense. It’s debatable whether or not Rudy did terribly. But he did not do particuarly well, and that was clear.

More often than not, people will think that the candidate they most support performed the best in a debate. This poll pretty much reflects that. The three Republican front-runners were the only ones to register in the double-digits (unless you count "not sure").

[Carry_Okie]

If that's what you want to believe, then feel free to believe it.

Four generations in California might have something to do with it you know.

And you cannot argue that Giuliani's lead in this poll is statistically insignificant

Let's see. This race is for the Republcian nomination in California. There were 375 adult respondents who SAY they saw the debate. Of those, it would be a large surprise if 75% were registered voters. Of those, 2/3 were Democrat or independent. That leaves under 100 who were registered Republicans who COULD vote in the primary. The last several primaries had turnouts less than 50% of registered Republicans, so it's highly likely that less than 50 of the respondents would vote in a primary. Of those, the 2002 primary election would indicate that about two thirds are conservative (voters who rejected RINO Dick Riordan in favor of Bill Simon), or fewer than 35 people.

Shall I break out Student's t-test on that sample to tell you if the results are statistically significant?

Now, as to objective significance, just remember: Bill Simon was 20 points behind Riordan with less than two months before the California gubernatorial primary and beat the RINO by fourteen points.

[conservative in nyc]

There were 375 adult respondents who SAY they saw the debate.

317, actually.

Of those, it would be a large surprise if 75% were registered voters.

It wasn't a poll of registered voters. It was a poll of adult Californians who watched the debate. Nothing more. Nothing less.

Of those, 2/3 were Democrat or independent.

Actually, 45% of those polled were Republicans. 55% were Democrats or Independents.

That leaves under 100 who were registered Republicans who COULD vote in the primary.

That's irrelevant. As I've said numerous times on this thread, this was a poll of 317 adult Californians who watched tonight's debate. It reflects the opinion of 317 adult Californians who watched the debate. Nothing more. Nothing less.

The only statistically significant opinions of those adult Californians who watched the debate were 1) that Rudy won the debate, and 2) based on what they saw in the debate, Rudy had the best solution for immigration. Nothing more. Nothing less. NOT that Rudy will win a primary next year. NOT that even Rudy would lead the primary race in a poll of registered California Republicans tonight. That's not what the poll was about.

[Carry_Okie]

That's not what the poll was about.

In which case it is of zero indicative value and no significance at all.

[GOP Poet]

they must have asked a bunch of liberals. For me it was Romney.

[conservative in nyc]

In which case it is of zero indicative value and no significance at all.

No. It indicates that a large plurality of adult Californians who watched the debate thought Rudy won the debate. That question is asked by the media after most major debates.

[GOP Poet]

They always tell me how to vote. /s

These surveys are easier to do in 'urban' areas. They tend to lean dem so they will naturally tend to lean Rudy.

Exactly!

[Carry_Okie]

No. It indicates that a large plurality of adult Californians who watched the debate thought Rudy won the debate.

Which is of no significance other than a strong indication that SurveyUSA's numbers are wacky. First, no pundit, no commentator, NO ONE I know who saw that debate thought Rudy did even well, much less won. As a fan of Duncan Hunter, I have to say Romney showed up the best, even if I disagree with him and know for certain he's being disingenuous at best with his answers.

Second, for SurveyUSA's numbers to show up as they do indicates a very left leaning group of "conservatives," of which there are many within the CAGOP, but recent elections strongly indicate that they only constitute between a third and a half of the Party.

Third, every subgroup within the sample is self-described, which is not a reliable way of collecting data unless the sample is huge, which this wasn't.

Thus, nothing can be reasonably inferred from these numbers, especially insofar as a prospective California Presidential primary is concerned. You can compartmentalize the results all you want and it won't change anything.

[conservative in nyc]

California isn't exactly a rural state. According to the U.S. Census, about 5.5% of California's population lived in rural areas. 5% of the Survey USA poll's respondents were from rural areas. So mix was about right for California.

Care to guess which candidate most rural respondents thought won the debate (although I doubt the results were statistically significant)? Hint: It wasn't Rudy, but you're still probably not going to like the answer.

[conservative in nyc]

Which is of no significance other than a strong indication that SurveyUSA's numbers are wacky. First, no pundit, no commentator, NO ONE I know who saw that debate thought Rudy did even well, much less won.

There is no reason to believe that SurveyUSA's numbers are wacky. They were one of the three most accurate state-by-state pollsters in the 2004 elections. The punditry and spin likely began after this poll was taken.

Moreover, even about 12% of FReepers who currently answered the FR poll thought Rudy won the debate - so I don't know how you can say NO ONE you know thought Rudy did well (unless they've been silenced into submission by the recent purge).

Thus, nothing can be reasonably inferred from these numbers, especially insofar as a prospective California Presidential primary is concerned. You can compartmentalize the results all you want and it won't change anything.

To say that NOTHING can be reasonably inferred from these numbers is incorrect. A large plurality of adult Californians who watched the debate thought Rudy won it. As I said a number of times, the poll said nothing about what that means for the California primary. The poll is what it is.

[CheyennePress]

Did these people even watch the debate? Giuliani did not even come close to winning. That was the expert opinion, and that was the opinion around the net.

It seemed that the winners pretty much unanimously were Romney and also Hunter and Huckabee. Paul was also seen as strong, though nn outsider.

McCain got very mixed reviews. I admit that I’m biased with him. I don’t understand where any of his support comes from.