Posted on 05/16/2007 10:33:25 AM PDT by TitansAFC
Romney Leaps to GOP Lead in Iowa; Edwards Keeps His Edge
Giuliani the big loser, while McCain remains steady; Hillary, Obama remain strong in tight Dem contest
Republican Mitt Romney has pushed from a distant third place into a small lead in Iowa, the continuation of progress he has shown since the first of the year in the Hawkeye state, while Arizona Sen. John McCain has has remained steady and one-time front-runner Rudy Giuliani has slid substantially, a new Zogby International telephone poll shows.
The telephone survey also shows that on the Democratic side of the aisle, the race in Iowa is remarkably stable – former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards continues to hold a small lead over Sens. Hillary Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois.
The poll, conducted May 14 and 15, 2007, included 511 likely participants in the Democratic caucus next January, which carries a margin of error of +/– 4.4 percentage points. The survey of likely Republican caucus–goers includes 478 respondents and carries a margin of error of +/– 4.6 percentage points.
Romney, who is also on top of the heap in the GOP race in New Hampshire, has nearly doubled since the last Zogby Iowa polling in March and has nearly quadrupled since January. Meanwhile, McCain has held steady over the same time period, while Giuliani has returned to where he was at the beginning of the year after a solid bump up in March. The percentage of undecided in the GOP race has remained constant at 22% throughout.
Romney’s jump comes as his organization in Iowa develops, and as Giuliani has wrestled with the abortion question and reports that he might downplay corn-fed caucus-goers in favor of GOP voters who will choose their favored presidential candidates in the weeks immediately after the Iowa caucuses. Romney is performing quite well among the very conservative and the conservative, while Giuliani has lost significant support among those likely voters – this coming after Romney’s strong performance on the CBS newsmagazine program 60 Minutes.
Edwards leads among Democrats in part because of the strength of his support among union households, where he wins 30% backing, compared to 27% support for Obama. Clinton wins just 13% among those voters. Edwards also does well among those likely Democratic caucus-goers who consider themselves moderate, while Clinton leads among liberals and the very liberal. While Edwards performs less well among the very liberal, Obama retains a reasonably steady level of support across the philosophical spectrum among those who say they plan to participate in the Democratic caucus next January.
Pollster John Zogby: “Times have definitely changed. It used to be conventional wisdom that the worst thing a leader could face was a knock on the door and a voice calling out ‘Mike Wallace here from 60 Minutes - I have a few questions.’ Perhaps Mitt Romney proved this past weekend that this conventional wisdom doesn’t always hold true. On the Democratic side, Edwards’ work to build support among union households continues to pay dividends, and the benefit he gets from strong union support here in Iowa is very likely to spill over into good numbers for him in Nevada as well. Overall, Romney’s surge makes this a true three–way battle on both sides of the aisle. Lurking in the background are other figures, including Fred Thompson and Newt Gingrich on the Republican side and former Vice President Al Gore on the Democratic side, but there is no strong evidence that those potential candidacies will break through immediately into the top tier.”
Ping, if you’re interested.
It’s Zogby, so polls from him need to be taken with a grain of salt. The Democrat poll looks beleiveable as it’s in line with other Iowa polls showing Edwards with a slight lead there, and it’s practically no change from his last poll.
But as for our side, I’m going to need to see other polls out of Iowa to believe that Romney has shot up there like he has. And keep in mind too that this was all done before last night’s debate.
Well....it’s worth more than ANY Harris or Quinnipiac poll.
At least Zogby gets the opinion of those that matter....”likely primary/caucus voters.”
Is this true? I thought recently Zogby's polls weren't worth much either.
|
May 15, 2007 |
March 28, 2007 |
Jan. 16, 2007 |
|
|
Giuliani |
18% |
25% |
19% |
|
McCain |
18% |
19% |
17% |
|
Romney |
19% |
11% |
5% |
|
Fred Thompson |
9% |
7% |
– |
|
Tommy Thompson |
4% |
5% |
1% |
|
Gingrich |
-- |
– |
13% |
|
Rice |
-- |
– |
9% |
|
Brownback |
2% |
3% |
1% |
|
Huckabee |
2% |
2% |
1% |
|
Tancredo |
3% |
1% |
2% |
|
Hagel |
<1% |
1% |
2% |
|
Not sure |
22% |
22% |
22% |
I am skeptical of Zogby too, but at a minimum it shows movement for Mitt.
Zogby’s polls aren’t worth much. Like I said, I can believe the Democrat poll here, cause all other polls have shown Edwards with a small lead in Iowa. But I’m not going to believe that Romney is doing this well there until I see a few other polls that confirm this.
Romney only has to break 25% in Iowa to get good buzz. He will have exceeded expectations. If he gets 30% in the caucuses, regardless of whether he “wins,” he will be the frontrunner.
This is the part that doesn't make sense. The DU moonbats really don't like Hillary all that much. I guess this shows Obama where he needs to target in Iowa.
By the way, I drove through that state just three weeks ago, and didn't see a single bumper sticker for ANY candidate...
Zogby is the #1 political pollster....with Rassmussen in a close 2nd, if not tied even.
These 2 agencies are the only ones that properly vet their respondants to only include “likely Republican/Democrat primary/general voters” based on questions answered on past voting behaviors.
The rest, like Harris and especially Quinnipiac, spew their statistical lies by doing polls of “registered Democrats/Republicans”......whose opinions aren’t relevant because many of them do not vote......if every registered person actually voted, THEN they’d be relevant. They simply ask “are you registered to vote...and which party”....and that’s it.
Zogby et al will question the past voting record of respondants they know are registered to judge the liklihood of them voting in the upcoming election......a much better predicter of actual voter sentiment.
If you ask me, they’re ALL worthless....but there’s a definite spectrum of worthlessness.
I share your skepticism, even as a Romney backer. That said, Giuliani and McCain have been doing themselves no favors, and Romney has been at the top of every debate.
Romney has had a 21-point swing in Michigan, largely from supportes dumping Giuliani and McCain. Same thing in California, though not so large.
We shall see. There has definitely been momentum in Romney’s favor, particularly after the Tonight Show, 60-Minutes, and the debates.
I truly think this is going to come down to Romney or Thompson, and I don’t think we lose either way.
This is encouraging news, and let's pray it continues.
Thank you, nal. It looks promising. : )
Where’s Ron Paul???? heee hee hee
However, this thing is far from over. Run, Fred, run.
I truly think this is going to come down to Romney or Thompson, and I don’t think we lose either way.
I think it's fortunate for Romney that Fred hasn't jumped in, as Romney needed and needs that space to build up his campaign as a force to be reckoned with. When, or if, Fred finally jumps in he'll be running even or slightly behind Romney and he'll really have to prove his mettle. That will be good for whichever candidate ends up with the nomination.
Holy crap. Those are some incredible gains for Romney in Iowa. It’s going to be a VERY interesting summer. I hope all of the candidates their armor on the ready.
He did an excellent job on 60 Minutes. The scenes of him at home with his cute family were touching. He’s a smart, articulate, classy guy. I hope he continues to gain.
Whoever we nominate should make a good effort in Iowa. Iowa may become an important swing state, and a candidate who ignores the state in the primaries will have a hard time persuading them that he needs their votes in the general election.
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