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Overblown GOP apocalypse
The Hill ^ | 5/23/07 | David Hill

Posted on 05/23/2007 12:23:12 PM PDT by Jean S

Rumors of the Republican Party’s imminent meltdown in 2008 are rampant. Websites and blogs bristle with headlines like “They’re screwed,” “Licking their wounds,” “Republicans really are the stupid party” and “What are Republicans thinking?” And those are from the friendly conservative sources. Some wags say the party is hopelessly divided over issues ranging from abortion and Iraq to gas prices and immigration. Other observers focus on the dissident voices of GOP moderates. Some pundits point their fingers at a president who’s too distracted by war and low approval ratings to provide much party leadership. And there’s a persistent sense on the part of many that the best potential nominees for president — namely Fred Thompson and Newt Gingrich — aren’t even in the mix.

Is it really an apocalypse for the GOP? Or is a weird coalition of the liberal mainstream media conjoined with the hard right making the Republican predicament out to be much worse than it really is? In my view, the case for a crisis is way overblown. While there is some truth to each of the issues raised — there are divisions, factional shifts, weak leadership and so forth — a case could be made that the Democrats suffer from most of the same maladies. So while the Republicans may be confronting challenges, they aren’t necessarily at a competitive disadvantage for 2008.

One particular weakness of the case against the Republicans is that it’s too much about inside-the-Beltway politics. Yes, Republicans on Capitol Hill aren’t functioning as a well-oiled machine. We’re at a competitive disadvantage there. But Capitol Hill is hardly all of America. At the state level, you’ll find Republican Party operations that are peak performers. Consider Florida, where the newly elected Republican governor is already so popular that Floridians may forget about Jeb Bush. And the state legislature is dominated by the GOP. Republicans hold top local offices across the state. At the other end of the country, in California, you see a Republican Party that’s bouncing back under the leadership of a suddenly stronger and more popular governor.

The focus on issue divisions is another attack on the party that misses its mark. The Republicans have always had the kinds of divisions over issues that suddenly seem to be so telling to party critics. The doomsayers who make such a big deal out of Rudy Giuliani’s moderate positions on social issues like abortion and guns forget that moderates like Gerald Ford or Nelson Rockefeller have always been able to attract support from the same 35 percent who now support the latest squish to seek the presidency. This is nothing new or different. And besides, I’m convinced that these issue differences don’t matter much once the nomination is decided. After we have a nominee, the ranks start to close.

In the end, it’s not conservative issues or ideology that defines the Republican coalition today. Instead, the framework around which the party is built is principally demographic, focused on the South, select suburbs, rural areas and traditional families (i.e., households with a daddy, mommy and kids). These building blocks of the party are not under the same siege that afflicts conservatism. So even though issues like Iraq and immigration are roiling the waters of Long Island or Chicago’s Lakefront, they’re not cracking the bedrock of GOP support in climes like Atlanta’s northern suburbs or rural Iowa’s farm communities. GOP fortunes were more threatened in the Reagan years, when GOP support in the rural Midwest was eroded by rural opposition to the Gipper’s farm policies. Southern support of the GOP was under greater duress when the first Bush raised taxes than under the current Bush.

Whoever wins the Republican nomination will find a much stronger and more resilient party base than most party critics now surmise.

Hill is director of Hill Research Consultants, a Texas-based firm that has polled for GOP candidates and causes since 1988.


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: baloney; crackpot; nonsense; stopsmokingcrack
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1 posted on 05/23/2007 12:23:13 PM PDT by Jean S
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To: JeanS

Whether or not there is an apocolypse depends on decisions made by the GOP. It’s still not too late to save the party.


2 posted on 05/23/2007 12:26:25 PM PDT by freeangel ( (free speech is only good until someone else doesn't like what you say))
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To: JeanS

Good article.


3 posted on 05/23/2007 12:27:07 PM PDT by John Cena
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To: JeanS

Fred.


4 posted on 05/23/2007 12:27:19 PM PDT by roaddog727 (BullS##t does not get bridges built)
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To: JeanS

Rudy would destroy the R party.

Illegal amnesty could do it too.


5 posted on 05/23/2007 12:27:32 PM PDT by stephenjohnbanker ( Hunter/Thompson/Thompson/Hunter in 08! "Read my lips....No new RINO's" !!)
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To: JeanS

“will find a much stronger and more resilient party base”
Pass “The Globalist Wet Dream and Mexico Ass-Kissing Act of 2007” and see what happens.


6 posted on 05/23/2007 12:27:43 PM PDT by dynachrome (Henry Bowman is right.)
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To: JeanS

Sorry, but this is very shallow and unpersuasive.
The GOP is, in fact, in deep trouble. And to say that the California party is in good shape just because Arnold is popular is simply laughable. He’s not us, not by a long shot. Even if he were, it wouldn’t mean the CA GOP is in good shapr.


7 posted on 05/23/2007 12:28:46 PM PDT by California Patriot ("That's not Charley the Tuna out there. It's Jaws." -- Richard Nixon)
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To: freeangel

I agree. They better find their principles fast and denounce the insults of party members like Lindsey Graham.


8 posted on 05/23/2007 12:29:06 PM PDT by cripplecreek (Greed is NOT a conservative ideal.)
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To: JeanS

Bush’s problem is he is a RINO.


9 posted on 05/23/2007 12:30:22 PM PDT by stockpirate (IF BUSH SIGNS THIS POS IMMIGRATION BILL, I WILL NOT VOTE REPUBLICAN AGAIN!)
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To: JeanS

RUN FRED RUN!!!


10 posted on 05/23/2007 12:30:38 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum ("All the measures of the law should protect property and punish plunder." --Frederic Bastiat)
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To: JeanS; Jim Robinson
The doomsayers who make such a big deal out of Rudy Giuliani’s moderate positions on social issues like abortion and guns forget that moderates like Gerald Ford or Nelson Rockefeller have always been able to attract support from...blahblahblah...I’m convinced that these issue differences don’t matter much once the nomination is decided.

"Principles? We don't need no stinkin' principles."

11 posted on 05/23/2007 12:31:08 PM PDT by M203M4 (What I wanna see is a pro-war ("kill the bastards") Ron Paul. Pacifism is suicide.)
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To: JeanS
At the state level, you’ll find Republican Party operations that are peak performers.

That sure is true here in Colorado where Republicans have lost the state House and Senate and the governorship as well as a seat in the US Senate and one in the House.

When I called to voice my objection to the amnesty bill, the person who answered the phone she could put me through to a line where I could 'record' my comments. Not talk to a GOP party representative...just a recording. Talk to the machine cause the Party is not listening.

Yep. The Republican Party is functioning on all cylinders at the state level here in Colorado.

These people are only fooling themselves.
12 posted on 05/23/2007 12:33:04 PM PDT by goldfinch
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To: John Cena
Good article.

? I think the author is on crack. What is happening with the Amnesty Bill with utterly destroy the GOP and more importantly, our wonderful Republic. The guy writing this thinks its all a wonderful game. Our Republic is one bill aways from being destroyed and this guy thinks things will be fine?

13 posted on 05/23/2007 12:37:34 PM PDT by sand88 (q)
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To: JeanS

There are just TOO MANY Republicans in bed with TEDDY KENNEDY for what we see to be anything but an absolute apocalypse. Disagreements within a family are one thing, but taking sides against the family is another as Michael Corleone told his brother Fredo. Taking sides with Teddy Kennedy is the highest form of treachery imaginable.


14 posted on 05/23/2007 12:39:18 PM PDT by Biblebelter (I can't believe people still watch TV with the sound on.)
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To: JeanS
What I don’t understand is why people like Boehner promised the President they wouldn’t criticize the bill? Taking a stand against it would make the Republican leadership hero’s in the eyes of their base.
15 posted on 05/23/2007 12:40:13 PM PDT by The Blitherer ("What the devil is keeping the Yanks?")
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To: JeanS
in California, you see a Republican Party that’s bouncing back under the leadership of a suddenly stronger and more popular governor.

Dude, stick to the medications the doctor prescribes. No self-medicating. You start seeing things that aren't there.

16 posted on 05/23/2007 12:40:35 PM PDT by siunevada (If we learn nothing from history, what's the point of having one? - Peggy Hill)
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To: JeanS

At the other end of the country, in California, you see a Republican Party that’s bouncing back under the leadership of a suddenly stronger and more popular governor.
***Here’s where I would begin to dismantle what this author says. He simply doesn’t know what he’s talking about.


17 posted on 05/23/2007 12:40:50 PM PDT by Kevmo (Duncan Hunter just needs one Rudy G Campaign Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RVBtPIrEleM)
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To: JeanS
The doomsayers who make such a big deal out of Rudy Giuliani’s moderate positions on social issues like abortion and guns forget that moderates like Gerald Ford or Nelson Rockefeller have always been able to attract support from the same 35 percent who now support the latest squish to seek the presidency.

Yeah, but neither of them got elected.

18 posted on 05/23/2007 12:41:16 PM PDT by dashing doofus (Those who are too smart to engage in politics are punished by being governed by those who are dumber)
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To: JeanS
Hill is director of Hill Research Consultants, a Texas-based firm that has polled for GOP candidates and causes since 1988.

This is BS. Hill is a shill.

19 posted on 05/23/2007 12:42:17 PM PDT by Prokopton
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To: stephenjohnbanker

Indeed.

What is interesting is that the Iraq funding bill is getting ready to do the same to the DNC. By stripping all time lines, they just screwed over their base.


20 posted on 05/23/2007 12:43:14 PM PDT by redgolum ("God is dead" -- Nietzsche. "Nietzsche is dead" -- God.)
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To: JeanS
This reads like the soothing words of a veterinarian as he gives a loved pet that one final shot.
21 posted on 05/23/2007 12:43:15 PM PDT by KarlInOhio (Parker v. DC: the best court decision of the year.)
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To: sand88

What better than to have a luxurious banquet of qualified candidates that we can consider at our leisure, confidant that the Dems don’t even have one who is really qualified.


22 posted on 05/23/2007 12:44:40 PM PDT by ClaireSolt (Have you have gotten mixed up in a mish-masher?)
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To: The Blitherer

Good point.


23 posted on 05/23/2007 12:44:55 PM PDT by California Patriot ("That's not Charley the Tuna out there. It's Jaws." -- Richard Nixon)
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To: KarlInOhio
This reads like the soothing words of a veterinarian as he gives a loved pet that one final shot.

brilliant, right on the mark...

24 posted on 05/23/2007 12:45:44 PM PDT by sand88 (q)
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To: cripplecreek

Yes. Republican leaders should denounce Graham for his comments about “bigots.” Excellent idea.


25 posted on 05/23/2007 12:45:49 PM PDT by California Patriot ("That's not Charley the Tuna out there. It's Jaws." -- Richard Nixon)
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To: JeanS

It will surprise no-one here, but have you noticed the MSM’s portrayal of the two political parties and their internal dynamics?

Republicans are in disarray....Democrats have minor differences.

Republicans are dictators....Democrats are taking stern decisive action.

Republicans have mavericks & renegades....Democrats have forward-thinkers and leaders.

Republicans slavishly serve special interests...Democrats act selflessly as uniters and coordinators of diverse groups.

Republicans espousing their party’s platform or constituent views are hard-liners....Democrats doing the same are populist visionaries.

A legislative setback for Republicans is a devastating loss and shows a leadership vacuum...A setback for Democrats is simply a political maneuver, they cleverly meant to do it all along and shows party unity.


26 posted on 05/23/2007 12:47:50 PM PDT by relictele
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To: JeanS

yeah they can keep believing this pipe dream and be lost in the wilderness for another 40 years, or they can stop acting like drunken democrats and start acting like Conservatives and find their way.


27 posted on 05/23/2007 12:48:09 PM PDT by Leatherneck_MT (The Republican Party's continued idiocy, proves the TV Series, Lost In Space, was a documentary.)
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To: JeanS

“Consider Florida, where the newly elected Republican governor is already so popular that Floridians may forget about Jeb Bush. And the state legislature is dominated by the GOP. Republicans hold top local offices across the state.”

???

He’s nuts. Davis was no contender. We re-elected Nelson. We have that total idiot Martinez. We lost a district (mine) that has way more repubicans than dems. The legislature is about to piss-off everybody with “tax reform” that rewards the friggen snowbirds and canadians, at the expense of working home owners.


28 posted on 05/23/2007 12:50:17 PM PDT by Sunnyflorida ((Elections Matter)
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To: KarlInOhio
This reads like the soothing words of a veterinarian as he gives a loved pet that one final shot.

That's a great line, but I don't think it's quite that bad - yet. Do not forget that this woman:

really scares people.

29 posted on 05/23/2007 12:51:37 PM PDT by andy58-in-nh
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To: stephenjohnbanker

Yea, I’ll vote Democrat. I’m sure they’ll do a better job.


30 posted on 05/23/2007 12:56:30 PM PDT by Conservativegreatgrandma
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To: JeanS

This article, my FRiends, is a case of wishful thinking of the worst sort.


31 posted on 05/23/2007 12:57:20 PM PDT by JamesP81 (Isaiah 10:1 - "Woe to those who enact evil statutes")
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To: JeanS

Thanks for posting this. At this point its either ‘the end of the Democratic Party’ or ‘The end of the GOP’....remember it was said the Dems were doomed post 9/11?

Its all nonsense, nobody is going anywhere as things stand politically.


32 posted on 05/23/2007 12:58:01 PM PDT by Badeye (You know its a kook site when they ban the word 'kook')
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To: JeanS
This Big Tent GOP clown can deny reality all he wants. The 2006 midterm was a disaster and, considering the GOP has done absolutely nothing since but make it worse, 2008 doesn't look like it's going to be a banner year.

In other words, continue to put up the same party-above-principle GOP Big Tent RINOs as candidates with the same RINO agenda, and the GOP can look forward to even less success.

33 posted on 05/23/2007 12:59:07 PM PDT by Czar ( StillFedUptotheTeeth@Washington)
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To: JeanS
If the last three years of GOP is any measurement we have a problem. Unfortunately the Republican members of congress did not have the courage of their convictions. When the push came to the shove most our members wimped out. They appear to have forgotten that being in congress is not a popularity contest. There are times when standing up and being counted is necessary. This display of cowardliness was obvious and could well cost us the next election and more.
34 posted on 05/23/2007 1:06:36 PM PDT by ANGGAPO (LayteGulfBeachClub)
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To: ANGGAPO

Ever notice in the media that Democrat is always used to ID them but GOP is used to ID us?

I would think that under 25-somethings probably don’t even know what GOP means? But it’s crystal clear who the other party is.


35 posted on 05/23/2007 1:08:22 PM PDT by bicyclerepair (Ft. Lauderdale Florida)
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To: John Cena
At the rate the GOP is going, '08 is going to make '06 look like the "good old days".

 

36 posted on 05/23/2007 1:14:47 PM PDT by Psycho_Bunny
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To: relictele

You are right about the mainstream media, but when are we going to do something concrete about it. For years, we have been complaining about liberal news on TV but we have not done one single thing. Yes we have Fox News, but that must not be enough because we still complain. We need to have an all conservative round the clock news channel and then perhaps we will have a fair chance. I don’t think it is up to the Mainstream Media to ensure we get our word out. That is up to us not them. They want to make a buck and whether or not we think they do or not does not matter. We don’t own the networks. We either need to get some rich conservatives to buy a network or start our own (again rich conservative). Complaining about Mainstream Media gets us no where.


37 posted on 05/23/2007 1:15:32 PM PDT by napscoordinator (.)
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To: JeanS

The term “whistling past the graveyard” comes to mind.
Still clueless. How sad.


38 posted on 05/23/2007 1:18:22 PM PDT by taxed2death (A few billion here, a few trillion there...we're all friends right?)
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To: JamesP81

“This article, my FRiends, is a case of wishful thinking of the worst sort”

Yep!


39 posted on 05/23/2007 1:18:33 PM PDT by stephenjohnbanker ( Hunter/Thompson/Thompson/Hunter in 08! "Read my lips....No new RINO's" !!)
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To: JeanS

Excellent article. Realistic and non hysterical.


40 posted on 05/23/2007 1:20:05 PM PDT by jveritas (Support The Commander in Chief in Times of War)
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To: stephenjohnbanker
Yes, Rudolph Giuliani and the amnesty bill would destroy it. I will add Senator John McCain if he gets the nomination. Honorable mention goes to Senator Lindsey Graham who hopes to destroy it and the country.
41 posted on 05/23/2007 1:22:13 PM PDT by apocalypto
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To: Conservativegreatgrandma; All

The worst bill in the history of the US is being sponsored by Bush & Kennedy, and you are worried about Hillary??

Get a clue!!


42 posted on 05/23/2007 1:25:05 PM PDT by stephenjohnbanker ( Hunter/Thompson/Thompson/Hunter in 08! "Read my lips....No new RINO's" !!)
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To: apocalypto

BUMP


43 posted on 05/23/2007 1:26:17 PM PDT by stephenjohnbanker ( Hunter/Thompson/Thompson/Hunter in 08! "Read my lips....No new RINO's" !!)
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To: bicyclerepair

For starters, it would be nice if a few of the Republicans in congress would call the immigration bill what it is, a giveaway of millions to millions of illegals from south of the border. I suspect that the Mexican immigrants would have no problems being accepted in our country if they followed the rules and came in the “front” door. But this disaster being forced on us by congress is going to hurt the GOP because there are Republicans supporting it.


44 posted on 05/23/2007 1:26:21 PM PDT by ANGGAPO (LayteGulfBeachClub)
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To: redgolum
What is interesting is that the Iraq funding bill is getting ready to do the same to the DNC. By stripping all time lines, they just screwed over their base.

Yup. The Dems discovered that their lunatic "base" was the tail wagging the liberal dog. Same thing is happening to the Republicans, but it remains to be seen if the elected (R)s have figured it out. They may have.

FR has become more extreme in the last year. No one dares dissent from the dogma that anything short of rounding up millions of illegals for deportation is "amnesty". There appear to be fewer postings. Most of the highly educated people who used to hang out in the evolution threads formed their own web site because of the hostility.

The radicals on both sides of the isles have gotten their mouthpieces in the last few years in Talk Radio and the Internet, and that fact allowed them to drag the parties to the extremes. If we're lucky, both parties will figure it out and return to some normalcy. Otherwise we could be in for even worse trouble. The guy on the morning talk radio program was talking with listeners about forming a new party to the right of the Republicans. There's just what we need to guarantee that Hillary! becomes the next president.

45 posted on 05/23/2007 1:38:52 PM PDT by narby
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To: California Patriot

Agreed, I am as staunch a Republican as they come, and this will be the last straw for me.


46 posted on 05/23/2007 1:42:27 PM PDT by dg62
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To: JeanS

Great article. I agree. I feel really good about our chances of keeping the White House and getting back the Senate in 2008.

Hopefully if this immigration bill passes, this will be a non-issue in 2008 and the war on terror and taxes will be the main issues. Also the GOP has real heavyweights as candidates and the Dems have lightweights like Hillary, Obama and the Breck girl. I don’t see America turning over the White House keys to those losers.


47 posted on 05/23/2007 1:53:03 PM PDT by ClarenceThomasfan (In 2008 Republicans will unite around Guiliani, McCain or Romney and whoop Hillary in a Landslide!!)
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To: ClarenceThomasfan
Hopefully if this immigration bill passes, this will be a non-issue in 2008

If the immigration bill passes there won't be a GOP left in 5 to 10 years, let alone a conservative movement. The millions of amnestied will be voting overwhelmingly for democrats and no bloviating by administration hacks like Karl Rove will convince me otherwise.

48 posted on 05/23/2007 1:58:54 PM PDT by Reaganwuzthebest
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To: JeanS

Come january, the vibe will be completely different.


49 posted on 05/23/2007 2:01:37 PM PDT by finnman69 (cum puella incedit minore medio corpore sub quo manifestus globus, inflammare animos)
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To: Reaganwuzthebest

The whole “Immigration will be a non issue” fantasy just keeps coming back after every round of GOP lies and bites them a little harder each and every time. This time it won’t be a nip, it’s going to be a mauling.


50 posted on 05/23/2007 2:03:53 PM PDT by cripplecreek (Greed is NOT a conservative ideal.)
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