Skip to comments.Overblown GOP apocalypse
Posted on 05/23/2007 12:23:12 PM PDT by Jean S
Rumors of the Republican Partys imminent meltdown in 2008 are rampant. Websites and blogs bristle with headlines like Theyre screwed, Licking their wounds, Republicans really are the stupid party and What are Republicans thinking? And those are from the friendly conservative sources. Some wags say the party is hopelessly divided over issues ranging from abortion and Iraq to gas prices and immigration. Other observers focus on the dissident voices of GOP moderates. Some pundits point their fingers at a president whos too distracted by war and low approval ratings to provide much party leadership. And theres a persistent sense on the part of many that the best potential nominees for president namely Fred Thompson and Newt Gingrich arent even in the mix.
Is it really an apocalypse for the GOP? Or is a weird coalition of the liberal mainstream media conjoined with the hard right making the Republican predicament out to be much worse than it really is? In my view, the case for a crisis is way overblown. While there is some truth to each of the issues raised there are divisions, factional shifts, weak leadership and so forth a case could be made that the Democrats suffer from most of the same maladies. So while the Republicans may be confronting challenges, they arent necessarily at a competitive disadvantage for 2008.
One particular weakness of the case against the Republicans is that its too much about inside-the-Beltway politics. Yes, Republicans on Capitol Hill arent functioning as a well-oiled machine. Were at a competitive disadvantage there. But Capitol Hill is hardly all of America. At the state level, youll find Republican Party operations that are peak performers. Consider Florida, where the newly elected Republican governor is already so popular that Floridians may forget about Jeb Bush. And the state legislature is dominated by the GOP. Republicans hold top local offices across the state. At the other end of the country, in California, you see a Republican Party thats bouncing back under the leadership of a suddenly stronger and more popular governor.
The focus on issue divisions is another attack on the party that misses its mark. The Republicans have always had the kinds of divisions over issues that suddenly seem to be so telling to party critics. The doomsayers who make such a big deal out of Rudy Giulianis moderate positions on social issues like abortion and guns forget that moderates like Gerald Ford or Nelson Rockefeller have always been able to attract support from the same 35 percent who now support the latest squish to seek the presidency. This is nothing new or different. And besides, Im convinced that these issue differences dont matter much once the nomination is decided. After we have a nominee, the ranks start to close.
In the end, its not conservative issues or ideology that defines the Republican coalition today. Instead, the framework around which the party is built is principally demographic, focused on the South, select suburbs, rural areas and traditional families (i.e., households with a daddy, mommy and kids). These building blocks of the party are not under the same siege that afflicts conservatism. So even though issues like Iraq and immigration are roiling the waters of Long Island or Chicagos Lakefront, theyre not cracking the bedrock of GOP support in climes like Atlantas northern suburbs or rural Iowas farm communities. GOP fortunes were more threatened in the Reagan years, when GOP support in the rural Midwest was eroded by rural opposition to the Gippers farm policies. Southern support of the GOP was under greater duress when the first Bush raised taxes than under the current Bush.
Whoever wins the Republican nomination will find a much stronger and more resilient party base than most party critics now surmise.
Hill is director of Hill Research Consultants, a Texas-based firm that has polled for GOP candidates and causes since 1988.
Whether or not there is an apocolypse depends on decisions made by the GOP. It’s still not too late to save the party.
Rudy would destroy the R party.
Illegal amnesty could do it too.
“will find a much stronger and more resilient party base”
Pass The Globalist Wet Dream and Mexico Ass-Kissing Act of 2007 and see what happens.
Sorry, but this is very shallow and unpersuasive.
The GOP is, in fact, in deep trouble. And to say that the California party is in good shape just because Arnold is popular is simply laughable. He’s not us, not by a long shot. Even if he were, it wouldn’t mean the CA GOP is in good shapr.
I agree. They better find their principles fast and denounce the insults of party members like Lindsey Graham.
Bush’s problem is he is a RINO.
"Principles? We don't need no stinkin' principles."
? I think the author is on crack. What is happening with the Amnesty Bill with utterly destroy the GOP and more importantly, our wonderful Republic. The guy writing this thinks its all a wonderful game. Our Republic is one bill aways from being destroyed and this guy thinks things will be fine?
There are just TOO MANY Republicans in bed with TEDDY KENNEDY for what we see to be anything but an absolute apocalypse. Disagreements within a family are one thing, but taking sides against the family is another as Michael Corleone told his brother Fredo. Taking sides with Teddy Kennedy is the highest form of treachery imaginable.
Dude, stick to the medications the doctor prescribes. No self-medicating. You start seeing things that aren't there.
At the other end of the country, in California, you see a Republican Party thats bouncing back under the leadership of a suddenly stronger and more popular governor.
***Here’s where I would begin to dismantle what this author says. He simply doesn’t know what he’s talking about.
Yeah, but neither of them got elected.
This is BS. Hill is a shill.
What is interesting is that the Iraq funding bill is getting ready to do the same to the DNC. By stripping all time lines, they just screwed over their base.
What better than to have a luxurious banquet of qualified candidates that we can consider at our leisure, confidant that the Dems don’t even have one who is really qualified.
brilliant, right on the mark...
Yes. Republican leaders should denounce Graham for his comments about “bigots.” Excellent idea.
It will surprise no-one here, but have you noticed the MSM’s portrayal of the two political parties and their internal dynamics?
Republicans are in disarray....Democrats have minor differences.
Republicans are dictators....Democrats are taking stern decisive action.
Republicans have mavericks & renegades....Democrats have forward-thinkers and leaders.
Republicans slavishly serve special interests...Democrats act selflessly as uniters and coordinators of diverse groups.
Republicans espousing their party’s platform or constituent views are hard-liners....Democrats doing the same are populist visionaries.
A legislative setback for Republicans is a devastating loss and shows a leadership vacuum...A setback for Democrats is simply a political maneuver, they cleverly meant to do it all along and shows party unity.
yeah they can keep believing this pipe dream and be lost in the wilderness for another 40 years, or they can stop acting like drunken democrats and start acting like Conservatives and find their way.
“Consider Florida, where the newly elected Republican governor is already so popular that Floridians may forget about Jeb Bush. And the state legislature is dominated by the GOP. Republicans hold top local offices across the state.”
He’s nuts. Davis was no contender. We re-elected Nelson. We have that total idiot Martinez. We lost a district (mine) that has way more repubicans than dems. The legislature is about to piss-off everybody with “tax reform” that rewards the friggen snowbirds and canadians, at the expense of working home owners.
That's a great line, but I don't think it's quite that bad - yet. Do not forget that this woman:
really scares people.
Yea, I’ll vote Democrat. I’m sure they’ll do a better job.
This article, my FRiends, is a case of wishful thinking of the worst sort.
Thanks for posting this. At this point its either ‘the end of the Democratic Party’ or ‘The end of the GOP’....remember it was said the Dems were doomed post 9/11?
Its all nonsense, nobody is going anywhere as things stand politically.
In other words, continue to put up the same party-above-principle GOP Big Tent RINOs as candidates with the same RINO agenda, and the GOP can look forward to even less success.
Ever notice in the media that Democrat is always used to ID them but GOP is used to ID us?
I would think that under 25-somethings probably don’t even know what GOP means? But it’s crystal clear who the other party is.
You are right about the mainstream media, but when are we going to do something concrete about it. For years, we have been complaining about liberal news on TV but we have not done one single thing. Yes we have Fox News, but that must not be enough because we still complain. We need to have an all conservative round the clock news channel and then perhaps we will have a fair chance. I don’t think it is up to the Mainstream Media to ensure we get our word out. That is up to us not them. They want to make a buck and whether or not we think they do or not does not matter. We don’t own the networks. We either need to get some rich conservatives to buy a network or start our own (again rich conservative). Complaining about Mainstream Media gets us no where.
The term “whistling past the graveyard” comes to mind.
Still clueless. How sad.
“This article, my FRiends, is a case of wishful thinking of the worst sort”
Excellent article. Realistic and non hysterical.
The worst bill in the history of the US is being sponsored by Bush & Kennedy, and you are worried about Hillary??
Get a clue!!
For starters, it would be nice if a few of the Republicans in congress would call the immigration bill what it is, a giveaway of millions to millions of illegals from south of the border. I suspect that the Mexican immigrants would have no problems being accepted in our country if they followed the rules and came in the “front” door. But this disaster being forced on us by congress is going to hurt the GOP because there are Republicans supporting it.
Yup. The Dems discovered that their lunatic "base" was the tail wagging the liberal dog. Same thing is happening to the Republicans, but it remains to be seen if the elected (R)s have figured it out. They may have.
FR has become more extreme in the last year. No one dares dissent from the dogma that anything short of rounding up millions of illegals for deportation is "amnesty". There appear to be fewer postings. Most of the highly educated people who used to hang out in the evolution threads formed their own web site because of the hostility.
The radicals on both sides of the isles have gotten their mouthpieces in the last few years in Talk Radio and the Internet, and that fact allowed them to drag the parties to the extremes. If we're lucky, both parties will figure it out and return to some normalcy. Otherwise we could be in for even worse trouble. The guy on the morning talk radio program was talking with listeners about forming a new party to the right of the Republicans. There's just what we need to guarantee that Hillary! becomes the next president.
Agreed, I am as staunch a Republican as they come, and this will be the last straw for me.
Great article. I agree. I feel really good about our chances of keeping the White House and getting back the Senate in 2008.
Hopefully if this immigration bill passes, this will be a non-issue in 2008 and the war on terror and taxes will be the main issues. Also the GOP has real heavyweights as candidates and the Dems have lightweights like Hillary, Obama and the Breck girl. I don’t see America turning over the White House keys to those losers.
If the immigration bill passes there won't be a GOP left in 5 to 10 years, let alone a conservative movement. The millions of amnestied will be voting overwhelmingly for democrats and no bloviating by administration hacks like Karl Rove will convince me otherwise.
Come january, the vibe will be completely different.
The whole “Immigration will be a non issue” fantasy just keeps coming back after every round of GOP lies and bites them a little harder each and every time. This time it won’t be a nip, it’s going to be a mauling.