Posted on 06/03/2007 2:29:42 AM PDT by Cincinna
Many people in France would support the ruling Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) in the upcoming legislative election, according to a poll by TNS-Sofres released by Unilog. 42 per cent of respondents would vote for the centre-right party in this month’s ballot, up two points since mid-May.
In addition, 27 per cent of respondents would support the centre-left Socialist Party (PS), the Left Radical Party (PRG), or the Citizen’s Republican Movement (MRC). The Democratic Movement (MD) is third with 10 per cent.
Support is lower for the far-right National Front (FN), the French Communist Party (PCF), Workers’ Struggle (LO) and the Revolutionary Communist League (LCR), the Greens (Verts), the Movement for France (MPF), Hunting, Fishing, Nature, Traditions (CPNT), and the National Republican Movement (MNR).
In the 2002 election to the National Assembly, the UMP received 33.3 per cent of the vote and secured 357 seats in the 577-member lower house. The PS was second, with 24.1 per cent and 141 mandates. The next election is scheduled for Jun. 10 and Jun. 17.
On May 6, UMP candidate and former interior minister Nicolas Sarkozy won the presidential run-off with 53.06 per cent of the vote. Sarkozy was sworn in on May 16.
On May 24, 78-year-old FN leader Jean Marie Le Pen said he will retain his position despite calls for his resignation after he finished fourth in the first round of the presidential election with 10.44 per cent of the vote. Le Pen told reporters: "There will be a congress in November and I will then present my candidacy. (...) The head of the National Front remains uncontested for the time being."
Polling Data
Which party’s candidate would you vote for in the legislative election?
May 29 May 19
Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) / New Centre (NC) 42% 40%
Socialist Party (PS), Left Radical Party (PRG) or Citizens’ Republican Movement (MRC) 27% 28%
Democratic Movement (MD) 10% 15%
National Front (FN) 4% 3.5%
French Communist Party (PCF) 4% 3.5%
Workers’ Struggle (LO) or Revolutionary Communist League (LCR) 4% 3.5%
The Greens (Les Verts) 3% 4%
Movement for France (MPF) 1.5% 1.5%
Hunting, Fishing, Nature, Traditions (CPNT) 0.5% 1%
National Republican Movement (MNR) 0.5% --
Source: TNS-Sofres / Unilog Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 1,000 French adults, conducted on May 28 and May 29, 2007. No margin of error was provided
The upper arc in the graphic below shows the projected UMP Majority in the Assemblee Nationale in the upcoming Election on June 10.
The lower arc shows the current Assemblee Nationale.
Nice.
THE BAYROU BUBBLE BURSTS:
From Boz @ Politique.com
If a new IFOP poll for the Journal du Dimanche is to be believed, Nicolas Sarkozy’s UMP will win 420 to 460 of the National Assembly’s 577 seats, higher than the current 359 and even higher than recent projections of winning 410 to 450. For the Socialists this is turning into a zero sum game giving them a mere 80 to 120 seats, potentially far below the current 149.
But if the left is moving farther into the minority, the situation is even worse for Francois Bayrou’s new centrist MoDem party, which is projected to win just 0 to 4 seats, not even close to the 18% he gathered in the first presidential round.
Good news!
A lot of people around the world, especially in the US perhaps, have a very static view of the French. A common attitude today is that ‘the French are a bunch of hopeless Socialists and you can trust them’.
All too often, we forget that France is the ‘home’ of revolutions. For instance, already in the 16th century the famous renaissance writer François Rabelais wrote that the inhabitants of Paris had an unusual passion for making revolutions. This was long before 1789.
France is a very turbulent nation which often has switched from Socialism to Patriotism in short time throughout history.
Today, a lot of French are tired of Socialism, incompetent politicians and economic stagnation.
Let’s all hope for a patriotic revolution in France!
‘Looks like Sarko gets something approaching a strong mandate for his policies after elections for parliament.
He’s going to have a free hand for a few years.’
Looks good...I hope he does .
Pray that, given its enormous popularity, Sarkozy’s party has the courage to promote godliness, such as limiting abortion.
The other problem, of course, with France is that it is a thug-ocracy. When the Left loses at the polls, they turn to violence and destruction until the Center agrees to appease them. Another nice move by Sarkozy would be to liberate the press, to further highlight the distinction between the pro-liberty Right, and the violent thugs on the Left.
“Socialist Party (PS), Left Radical Party (PRG) or Citizens’ Republican Movement (MRC) 27% 28%”
So the wording lumps the Socialists with two other parties... this election could slam the coffin lid on the PS.
The great advantage of the Fifth Republic, installed by de Gaulle, is that it is governable, unlike the situation before he rewrote the constitution.
What we see here, however, is that the process of turning over power is certainly rather slow. France has basically been months without a working government. No doubt in an emergency the elite apparatus would do what needs to be done, but from the time that Chirac basically vanished from sight to the time that Sarkozy sits on top of a newly elected parliament, things have moved with glacial slowness.
It’s a good thing France doesn’t have an imminent crisis to deal with. As for the major problems France must now confront—the Muslim threat, economic stagnation, the demographic implosion, an unworkable European Union, and cultural decadence, those will all require steady resolve from a position of strength. Good luck to Sarkozy.
Abortion in France, as in almost all of Europe, is legal only in the first trimester of pregnancy.
That is why abortion is not a major political issue there.
In the US, unfortunately, the NARAL, the pro-abortion lobby and their allies on the Left have a different agenda: Abortion as a Constitutional “right”, available to all, at any time, from conception right up until birth.
Candidates like Hillary Clinton take huge amounts of money from NARAL, Emily’s List , the Abortion Industry Lobby, and other so-called “pro-choice” groups.
If what they have in France were the case in the US, it would be a tremendous improvement over what we have now....abortion on demand.
The PS in France, as we know it today, is on life support.
They have lost three consecutive Presidential Elections, and with the end of Sarko’s 1st term, will have been out of power for 17 years... a very long time in politics.
If their showing in the upcoming Legislatives is as bad as predicted, they will be totally without power.
I'm not sure about economic reforms. I believe after the 1968 event, they put in the constitution the rights of workers to take their case to the streets without getting fired. That's why Sarkozy will do it gradually: he will not abolish the 35-hr limit, but will offer incentives to work more. For immigration, however, he may have a stronger position to reform.
Sometimes I don't understand why this fact has never been used by any pro-life to attack pro-abortion crowd in the US. I'm aware that they see abortion as a matter of life/death, but they already employ strategy of moving gradually (parental notification, PBA, etc.) so why not move to get like what European countries have? After all, many liberals see European social situation as their model, so they shouldn't resist much.
I agree. One thing that seems to irk some French folks with whom I have had contact is issue of unchecked immigration. Especially Muslim immigration.
Excellent point.
“I agree. One thing that seems to irk some French folks with whom I have had contact is issue of unchecked immigration. Especially Muslim immigration.”
- This seems to be the case in many European countries. In my country, Sweden, which most people deem to be a very liberal country in terms of immigration policies, around 40% are more or less in favor of limiting or totally stopping Muslim immigration and the number is growing according to surveys.
Based on news stories that I have read here, I can see why that number would increase.
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