Skip to comments.IT'S GLOBAL COOLING... AND IT'S DEADLY By: Phil Brennan
Posted on 06/28/2007 5:36:05 PM PDT by Reform Canada
IT'S GLOBAL COOLING... AND IT'S DEADLY
By: Phil Brennan
Unless you've been living in an igloo in some desolate arctic region bereft of any form of communication with the outside world it should become obvious that the world has been undergoing some pretty violent episodes of extreme weather, destruction by fire of vast forest areas, and incredible amounts of rainfall resulting in floods of an unprecedented magnitude from Texas to England and just about everyplace else.
If you've been following my series on global cooling starting in 1997, none of this will come as a surprise. These are all symptoms of an approaching ice age - symptoms, the record shows, present prior to the onset of all previous ice ages.
Before I get further into this, let me make it clear that I am not predicting the sudden appearance of great sheets of ice descending on the northern U.S. And Europe and burying New York under a few miles of ice in the near future - that's 30,000 years away and doesn't concern us - at least those of us who don't plan to be around then.
What concerns me, and should concern you, is the period that precedes the onset of glaciation. As I wrote back in 1997* and have harped on ever since, is the fact that the historical records show that the period between the switch from interglacial interludes and the return of glaciation is about 20 short years.
Moreover, as the earth proceeds through that 20 year period, all hell breaks loose, with each year getting worse and more violent than the previous one. Mother Nature appears to go more and more berserk each year and by the time that glaciation begins to set in Mother earth and its inhabitants- us - are devastated - if still alive - to say the least.
Do I have your attention now?
Before you accuse me of being a demented alarmist take a look at some facts. In my 1997 series, The IceMan Cometh, I wrote of studies by Dr. George Kukla a member of the Czechoslovakian Academy of Sciences and a pioneer in the field of astronomical forcing.
I explained that in the early 1960s, Dr.Kukla and Julius Fink examined glacial loess deposits and found evidence of ten ice ages in the samples. Later, in 1977, the journal Quaternary Research published their findings in an article "Pleistocene Climates in Central Europe: At least 17 Interglacials after the Olduvai Event."
Now comes the Financial Post's Lawrence Solomon with a piece "Forget Warming - beware the next new ice age," in which he discusses Dr. Kukla's warnings harking back to the 1970s and his present contentions.Solomon himself is executive director of Urban Renaissance Institute and Consumer Policy Institute, divisions of Energy Probe Research Foundation. He has recently written about and identified many scientists who deny the claims of Al Gore and his chums who claim fasely that all reputable scientists say the science is settled and that's it!
Before I cite Solomon's article I want to dispel any questions skeptics might have about Dr. Kukla and his solid credentials. According Solomon Dr. Kukla is a micropalentologist and Special Research Scientist at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, and is a pioneer in the study of solar forcing of climate changes. He was the lead author of the scientific paper that first supported Milutin Milankovic's theory of glacial cycles by investigating the stratigraphy in deep-sea sediment cores from the southern Indian Ocean. In the cores were clear imprints of Milankovic's proposed cycles. In his paper he wrote, "We are certain now that changes in the Earth's orbital geometry caused the ice ages. The evidence is so strong that other explanations must now be discarded or modified." Prior to joining Columbia in 1971, he had published landmark studies in Czechoslovakia, where he was a member of the Czechoslovakian Academy of Sciences.
O.K. Here's what Dr. Kukla says now. He maintains that the record clearly shows that global warming always precedes an ice age. That makes the current period of global warming a mere blip that constitutes additional indication of the ice age to come.
He insists that the fundamental issue here could not be more clear: For millions of years, the geologic record shows, Earth has experienced an ongoing cycle of ice ages, each typically lasting about 100,000 years, and each punctuated by briefer, warmer periods called interglacials, such as the one we are now in. This ongoing cycle closely matches cyclic variations in Earth's orbit around the sun.
"I feel we're on pretty solid ground in interpreting orbit around the sun as the primary driving force behind ice-age glaciation. The relationship is just too clear and consistent to allow reasonable doubt," Dr. Kukla said. "It's either that, or climate drives orbit, and that just doesn't make sense."
In 1997 I wrote about the 20 year period between interglacial periods and glaciation. I quoted paleologist-pollen specialist Genevieve Woillard as writing in a 1979 Nature article about that period. She wrote that the only real question remaining is how long it will take for the glaciation process to set in.
Woillard reported on her studies of pollen samples in a lake bottom in South Vosges, France. She wrote that at the start of a number of past glacial periods, the vegetation changed from temperate zone trees to subarctic needle-bearing trees in a period of 150 years plus or minus 75 years. The change was one of gradual deterioration until the last 20 years. During that final score of years, the type of vegetation completely changed.
What her studies, and those of other paleoclimatologists who have examined past ice ages show, is that the transition between interglacial and glacial periods is one of increasing violence -- more volcanic eruptions, storms, earthquakes and other natural disasters.
To sum up, here are a few facts - that's facts, not the computer models (guesses) that pass for evidence in the global warming community:
For at least the past five million years, the earth has experienced ice ages lasting 90,000 years or so, followed by interglacial periods like the present one that last about 12,000 years.
The last ice age ended 12,000 years ago.
Every time the atmospheric levels of CO2 have exceeded 300 ppms an ice age has occurred. Those levels now exceed 400 ppms.
The transition period between ice ages and temperate climates is about 20 years and that period is one of increasing violence.
Galciation is an acceleration of the normal process of using evaporated water to carry heat energy from the warm zones to cold zones. The effect of an increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases such as water vapor - the real grenhouse gas - is to increase cloud cover over polar latitudes. The clouds have a cooling effect as well as providing the snow for glaciation. The energy is dissipated in arctic space. Spring and Fall seasons get shorter and shorter until all that's left is winter.
To get to the point of all of this, let me quote what I write back in 1997 about the opinions of former government scientist Dr. George Kaplan, the real historian of the global warming/global cooling dispute.
"Has the warming theory 'campaign' been the last stand of an arrant scientific ideology?" he asked "Such a hypothesis can be acceptable to some, but the obvious failing of the theory in the face of global catastrophe argues for a more substantial motivation.
"It would pay to investigate this motivation further to consider whether politics has been responsive to poor science or whether economics and politics have made false tools out of science for narrow interest.
"If the latter is true the manipulation and subversion of the truth seeking apparatus by political and private interests is, in the present situation, of such extreme malevolence that it ranks as the greatest malfeasance in history."
In short, what Al Gore and his supporters are doing is nothing short of criminal . At a time in the world's history when mankind faces a catastrophe unlike anything in the entire history of humanity (all human history from Adam and Eve to the present has taken place in the last 12,000 years) the Goreites lull us into a false belief that global warming is not only happening, but can be prevented. This at a time when what we should be doing is getting spiritually prepared for what may well be the end of an age, if not of the world. If the past is really prologue, the next five years is going to be something close to a gradually occurring Armageddon.
More BS, different angle.
Sounds as plausible as anything else I’ve read.
Look, all I want to see about global warming, is some consensus among reasonable scientists, and then a presentation of the basis for their conclusions in some logical format we can read, review and understand.
Absent that, it is all hooey. But I am a lot more likely to believe in natural climate changes, even just the one described above, even the one above that we are in a warming end-of-gap period a few thousand years before the next protracted ice age. OK... It’s got to come some time...
I prefer global warming. Things grow when it’s warm. Everything dies when it freezes.
Nutball. What is the mechanism by which warmer weather could cause volcanic eruptions and earthquakes?
They're driven by plate tectonics.
Well this makes more sense than the global warming gunk.
Global Warming - Chicken Little “The Sky’s falling.”
Global Cooling - Chicken Little “The Sky’s falling.”
“. He maintains that the record clearly shows that global warming always precedes an ice age.”
I’m really glad to hear that; can’t you just imagine waking up from a bitter cold winter just to see the ice come in?
Well, we have had 16 straight days of rain in Oklahoma ..........about 30 inches of rain at my home in the past 6 weeks. The normal annual precipitation is 30 inches. Something unusual is happening! Where is Al Gore when you need him?
I’m dreaming of a White Christmas...
Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow....
No it is not. No one is saying mankind is or has caused "global cooling". The historical record, from multiple source and methods of divining that record, shows these cycles of warming followed by cooling. How rapid is hard to measure, because it is so short geologically speaking.
Here is one version of that record.
Note on graph presentation: The heavier temperature lines 160,000 BP to present reflect more data points for this time period, not necessarily greater temperature variability.
As you can see, the cycle is about 90,000 years, with 12,000 year interglacial periods between 78,000 year glacial periods. The current interglacial is about as long as they get. We are overdue for a nice cold spell.
So far, the global catastrophism crowd has not done as well as 50/50. I suspect many have chased trends - just to see them reverse. That is one way to get an abysmal batting average:
But I mean no disrespect for this article. Economics uses the terminology "endogenous" - within the model, and "exogenous" - outside the model. For much of earth's history, carbon dioxide seems to have been endogenous. Carbon dioxide is released from the ocean with warming, absorbed with cooling. But changes to earth's orbit would be outside the climate model - a cause rather than an effect. I hope to learn more about Milankovich cycles sometime.
Maybe we will have to crank up coal and gas furnaces for heat, and oh yes, maybe some greenhouse effect too!
I imagine the mechanism is that which he describes in the article: the position of the earth in relation to the sun as it makes it ways ‘round and ‘round (i.e. gravity amongst other things.)
No fooling. What about me? I just moved BACK to Alaska...
Bingo. Time to watch "Snowball Earth" again, I guess.
Could warmer weather cause changes in the polar icecaps, shifting enough weight to make a difference in the movement of the plates?