Skip to comments.Minnesota could lose congressional seat after 2010 census
Posted on 07/06/2007 6:36:39 AM PDT by MplsSteve
Minnesota is among four states hoping to hang on to a seat in Congress after the 2010 census, the state demographer said.
Tom Gillaspy said Minnesota would lose a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives if the census were taken today. He said the state is competing with Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina.
Minnesota has had eight House seats since 1960.
"The difference is very, very small," he said, "easily within any estimating error and easily within a slight modification in growth rates."
(Excerpt) Read more at startribune.com ...
In my dreams, I'd love to see the 4th and 5th congressional districts (St Paul and Minneapolis respectively) combined into one district.
That would rid us of either Keith "Jihad" Ellison or Betty "Rubble" McCollum.
I suspect that, if Minnesota does lose a seat, that they'd likely expand either of the urban districts further out and take in more suburban area.
Or if the re-districters and Democrats, they could combine Jim Ramstad's (3rd CD) and John Kline's (2nd CD) district together.
Comments or opinions - anyone?
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"Minnesota had 10 Electoral Votes in 2000. It will have only 9 in 2012. What was the percent of change?"
Real world examples are always much better than that manufactured stuff from the old textbooks.
No question that with Ellison, they already have one seat too many.
We lost a seat in the last seat census, no reason to think it won't happen again.
In fact, good news really, that's how we carved #2 dem in the house 'Bonior,' out of a job.
There's a couple of critters on the chopping block...
“No question that with Ellison, they already have one seat too many.”
I couldn’t agree more. Makes me wonder what’s wrong with Minnesotans?
I’m sure Michigan is probably due to lose another. Probably Pennsylvania or Ohio too.
I’m guessing that Texas gains one, Florida gains one and maybe Virginia too.
Is that going to followed by an essay question on the importance of specifying whether the pre-change or post-change value is used as the basis for stating a percentage of change?
MA could lose two. I can’t wait to see them throw each other under the bus.
No chance on Minneapolis and St. Paul combining. Too many people, too much of the state’s population. They also won’t take the 8th CD (Oberstar) either, IMO.
Since the Legislature will have to do redisticting it will be a Republican having to run against someone, preferably another Republican. Although calling Jim Ramstad a Republican is admittedly a bit of a stretch.
My state of MA is going to lose one or two. That’s progress!!
Really? Massachusetts is due to lose two seats?
Well, that explains why New Hampshire has been turning into a blue state.
Mass residents are fleeing and bringing their liberal freakzoid ideas to NH.
Yes, to NH and everywhere else. However, a number of republicans and conservatives are leaving as well. In 1980 MA had 14 electoral votes. It now has 12. After 2010, it may have 8. Our legislature and Boston’s mayor will be struggling to count every homeless person and illegal alien to keep the numbers up. Good luck to them!
You could probably add AZ to that list also.
The Dems will bring in some more refugees like Hmong or Somalie to keep their reps.
You’ve visited Taconite Harbor in December, then ?
I think they are looking for the states that will be at the margin of having to give up a seat, not those states that will be giving up a seat for sure.
How much representation is ‘lost’ or shifted due to
counting non-citizens and even illegal aliens for purposes of representation?
It must be a lot.
we should have states make a determination that all congressional districts should be apportioned equally based on the number of citizens of voting age.
In the 2010 census, we should count the number of citizens and divide the districts accordingly.
Take a look at the population growth in Dakota, Scott and Carver counties.
But the inner cities of Minneapolis and St Paul are losing population. And the Iron Range continues to bleed out.
My ex-girlfriend was an Iron Ranger. A rare Republican too.
She loved being by her family but there was really no future up there - unless you wanted to work full-time as a cashier at K-Mart. She left for the Twin Cities.
And that was back in the mid-80’s. I’m not sure things have gotten better up there either.
On a side note, a number of counties in western Minnesota (Yellow Medicine, Swift, Mahnomen, etc) are all feeling a loss in population too.
It is growing in pop. Just not as quickly as elsewhere.
It’s important we hold the Governorship and win back the legislature so Keef X and Betty Crocker can form a circular firing squad.
NYS will lose at least one.
Note to the nation: Vote for 'Rats and RINOs and all this, too, can be yours...
Good question. I think you’re right.
Census counters in the inner cities of Mpls-St Paul will count every last illegal alien and transient they can.
Mayors RT Rybak and Chris Coleman will be (tongue in cheek) drive the census counters around personally if they have to.
And a conservative state will gain one hopefully!
With apologies to Henny Youngman, take my 5th Cong. District, please.
After the 1990 census, Democrats controlled redistricting in a lot more states than Republicans. They tried to gerrymander just right and they spread themselves too thin. Republicans seemed to have made the same mistake in 2000.
How MN gets redistricted when it loses a House seat after 2010 (and it almost certainly will lose a House seat) will depend solely on who controls the state legislature and the governorship after the 2010 elections.
In 2001, Jesse Ventura was governor and the Dems and Republicans each controlled one house, so redistricting ended up in court, where they drew 3 rural districts, 2 urban districts and 3 suburban districts; before that, there were 4 rural CDs (one in each corner of the state) and 2 suburban CDs. Legislative Republicans had wanted to combine the St. Paul 4th with the Minneapolis 5th, but they didn’t have the votes.
If the state GOP has full control of the process in 2011, this is what I would advise that it does:
1. Create a minority-influence district that combines Minneapolis and its most heavily Democrat suburbs with St. Paul and some adjoining suburbs. The district would be defensible as a way of empowering minority voters, and would obviously serve to pack Democrats into a single district.
2. Create a Catholic Democrat district that starts off in the heavily Democrat Iron Range and, hugging the Wisconsin border, extends to St. Paul’s Democrat suburbs. It would be very difficult to draw a reliably Republican district that includes blue-collar Democrats from the Duluth area, and the Democrats in the St. Paul suburbs that would be left out of the combined Twin Cities CD would tend to make whatever district they are in lean Democrat, so combining these two groups in one district would allow a pro-life Catholic Democrat in the James Oberstar mold to be elected while making surrounding districts comfortably Republican.
3.-7. Create 5 GOP-leaning CDs in the rest of the state. The current MN-07, held by conservative Democrat Collin Peterson, could be extended to take in Republican parts of Oberstar’s MN-08 and other surrounding areas: The district would be sure to elect a Republican when Peterson retires, or if he finally switches parties. Southern MN could make up the redrawn MN-01, which would be more Republican than its current incarnation. Suburban GOP districts could be drawn in (i) Washington, Dakota, Scott and Carver counties (Kline), (ii) Hennepin and Wright counties (Ramstad or, hopefully, a pro-life replacement), and (iii) Anoka, Isanti, Chisago, Sherburne, Benton and Stearns counties (Bachmann).
If the GOP can draw 5 Republican CDs out of 7 in the state, it would be a huge victory. The trick is not to get too greedy by trying to draw 6 GOP CDs, or to make the MN-07 so Republican (in an attempt to knock off Peterson) that it gives the Democrats a chance of winning surrounding districts. But before any of that is possible, we need to (i) win control of both houses of the state legislature and (ii) retain the governorship in an open-seat race.
You can count 4 less conservatives in the very near future.
As soon as the daughter finishes high school, we're bailing on this state.
All life-long Minnesotas, all born in the cities -- raised the kids outstate though --- but outstate is getting strange too.
Here’s one more (from a potential Dem perspective)...
The Dems in this state hate Michele Bachman, first term Rep from the Twin Cities’ northern suburbs. They are very obsessed with seeing her crash and burn.
Jim Oberstar’s district (8th CD) continues to bleed out. To increase population in the 8th CD, they throw northern Washington County and northern Anoka County from the 6th CD into the 8th CD. Maybe part of Stearns County too. Maybe all of Anoka County.
In short, Bachman is re-districted into the 8th CD and would face a very uncertain shot at re-election.
The suburbs of the Twin Cities are by and large right leaning if not solid pubbie. In our sleepy little village of Inver Grove Heights we are seeing a great deal of urban flight. All we ask, and we say it out loud, is that they don't bring their politics with them.
If the Democrats focus on beating Bachmann instead of on drawing 5 Democrat CDs (and maybe a 6th CD where Peterson would win), the GOP will be able to win 2-3 CDs (and pick up the Peterson CD when he retires). Adding heavily GOP counties to Oberstar’s CD would make it a 50-50 district in presidential elections, and while Oberstar would likely be able to beat Bachmann, the district would probably go GOP within a few years. The Democrats should draw a hyper-Republican CD that takes in the suburban and exurban towns that voted 60%+ for Bush in 2004, even if it means that Bachmann beats out Ramstad and Kline in the primary.
That’s how I found the builder of my new house. Thankfully were up in fairly red Anoka County.
Tax cuts would be a good start to keeping people here. The higher the taxes, the fewer the good jobs and less reason to stay.
At least the water is open.
are the latest estimates.
If the 2006 estimates are near right, then MN 8 would get the 435th seat. However there were 4 years left in the decade as of the estimate, so MN would be hard pressed to hold the seat.
It appears GA has already gained a seat (not at the expense of MN yet) — it would have an outside shot at a 2nd...NC and SC appear to be holding even....maybe an outside shot at a seat.
FL looks like +1 already, TX +2, and CA at 0 but all 3 are close to another seat. IL and MI are at 0 and are looking at -1.
Its about damn time that California doesn’t gain any seats.
Yes. But after January 14th, it doesn’t matter.
Agreed. CA has been gaining seats since 1850! And if we could just get Congress to pass a law providing that only legal permanent residents are counted as “inhabitants” for purposes of apportionment (i.e., including U.S. residents who are temporarily overseas, but excluding illegal aliens and foreigners with tourist visas), CA would actually lose a couple of seats.
If I recall the last time they redrew congressional lines there was talk about combining minneapolis and st. paul but there was lots of objections cause then the inner cities would be underrepresented....or some such gobbly gook. so they expanded those two districts into the suburbs then. I’m sure that’s what they’d do again.
That outstate thingy that was started by the idiots in the media has always bugged me. Makes it sound like anyone who lives outside the twin cities area really isn’t a part of the state.
OK rant off. LOL