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Minnesota could lose congressional seat after 2010 census
Minneapolis StarTribune (aka The Red Star) ^ | 7/05/07 | AP News Story

Posted on 07/06/2007 6:36:39 AM PDT by MplsSteve

Minnesota is among four states hoping to hang on to a seat in Congress after the 2010 census, the state demographer said.

Tom Gillaspy said Minnesota would lose a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives if the census were taken today. He said the state is competing with Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina.

Minnesota has had eight House seats since 1960.

"The difference is very, very small," he said, "easily within any estimating error and easily within a slight modification in growth rates."

(Excerpt) Read more at startribune.com ...


TOPICS: Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Minnesota
KEYWORDS: census; congress; countillegals; electioncongress; electionushouse; quick; quickmoreillegals
Interesting article.

In my dreams, I'd love to see the 4th and 5th congressional districts (St Paul and Minneapolis respectively) combined into one district.

That would rid us of either Keith "Jihad" Ellison or Betty "Rubble" McCollum.

I suspect that, if Minnesota does lose a seat, that they'd likely expand either of the urban districts further out and take in more suburban area.

Or if the re-districters and Democrats, they could combine Jim Ramstad's (3rd CD) and John Kline's (2nd CD) district together.

Comments or opinions - anyone?

1 posted on 07/06/2007 6:36:45 AM PDT by MplsSteve
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To: NorthWoody; Manic_Episode; mikethevike; coder2; AmericanChef; Reaganesque; ER Doc; lesser_satan; ...

WELCOME TO FREE REPUBLIC’S MINNESOTA PING LIST!

80 MEMBERS AND GROWING...!

FREEPMAIL ME IF YOU WANT ON OR OFF THIS LIST!


2 posted on 07/06/2007 6:38:01 AM PDT by MplsSteve
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To: MplsSteve

Excessive lutefisk consumption is finally taking its toll.......


3 posted on 07/06/2007 6:39:53 AM PDT by Red Badger (No wonder Mexico is so filthy. Everybody who does cleaning jobs is HERE!.......)
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To: MplsSteve
Ah, another state to use in my math class.

"Minnesota had 10 Electoral Votes in 2000. It will have only 9 in 2012. What was the percent of change?"

Real world examples are always much better than that manufactured stuff from the old textbooks.

4 posted on 07/06/2007 6:41:14 AM PDT by Tanniker Smith (Bloomberg. Lots of money. Lots of influence. Realize that NOW!)
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To: MplsSteve

No question that with Ellison, they already have one seat too many.


5 posted on 07/06/2007 6:42:45 AM PDT by Brilliant
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To: MplsSteve
How did they miss Michigan? 

We lead the nation in an economic exodus.

We lost a seat in the last seat census, no reason to think it won't happen again.

In fact, good news really, that's how we carved #2 dem in the house 'Bonior,' out of a job.

There's a couple of critters on the chopping block...

6 posted on 07/06/2007 6:44:25 AM PDT by quantim (2008 => I'll take an imperfect winner over a perfect loser.)
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To: Brilliant

“No question that with Ellison, they already have one seat too many.”

I couldn’t agree more. Makes me wonder what’s wrong with Minnesotans?


7 posted on 07/06/2007 6:45:13 AM PDT by brownsfan (America has "jumped the shark")
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To: quantim

I’m sure Michigan is probably due to lose another. Probably Pennsylvania or Ohio too.

I’m guessing that Texas gains one, Florida gains one and maybe Virginia too.


8 posted on 07/06/2007 6:46:38 AM PDT by MplsSteve
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To: Tanniker Smith
Ah, another state to use in my math class.
"Minnesota had 10 Electoral Votes in 2000. It will have only 9 in 2012. What was the percent of change?"

Is that going to followed by an essay question on the importance of specifying whether the pre-change or post-change value is used as the basis for stating a percentage of change?

9 posted on 07/06/2007 6:47:06 AM PDT by steve-b (It's hard to be religious when certain people don't get struck by lightning.)
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To: steve-b

MA could lose two. I can’t wait to see them throw each other under the bus.


10 posted on 07/06/2007 6:48:15 AM PDT by massgopguy (I owe everything to George Bailey)
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To: MplsSteve

No chance on Minneapolis and St. Paul combining. Too many people, too much of the state’s population. They also won’t take the 8th CD (Oberstar) either, IMO.

Since the Legislature will have to do redisticting it will be a Republican having to run against someone, preferably another Republican. Although calling Jim Ramstad a Republican is admittedly a bit of a stretch.


11 posted on 07/06/2007 6:49:25 AM PDT by Colonel_Flagg (Fred.)
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To: MplsSteve

My state of MA is going to lose one or two. That’s progress!!


12 posted on 07/06/2007 6:52:07 AM PDT by cotton1706
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To: cotton1706

Really? Massachusetts is due to lose two seats?

Well, that explains why New Hampshire has been turning into a blue state.

Mass residents are fleeing and bringing their liberal freakzoid ideas to NH.


13 posted on 07/06/2007 6:55:37 AM PDT by MplsSteve
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To: MplsSteve

Yes, to NH and everywhere else. However, a number of republicans and conservatives are leaving as well. In 1980 MA had 14 electoral votes. It now has 12. After 2010, it may have 8. Our legislature and Boston’s mayor will be struggling to count every homeless person and illegal alien to keep the numbers up. Good luck to them!


14 posted on 07/06/2007 7:05:29 AM PDT by cotton1706
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To: MplsSteve

You could probably add AZ to that list also.


15 posted on 07/06/2007 7:09:13 AM PDT by quantim (2008 => I'll take an imperfect winner over a perfect loser.)
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To: MplsSteve
I thought Minnesota was gaining population...
Must be all those bachelor farmers.
16 posted on 07/06/2007 7:11:05 AM PDT by Eric in the Ozarks (BTUs are my Beat.)
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To: MplsSteve
Take heart, Minnesota, as Planet Erf heats up and drives the people away from the coast and the southern clime with ice melt and scorching temps, you will be ready to receive them in your new tropical paradise.
17 posted on 07/06/2007 7:11:27 AM PDT by NonValueAdded (Brian J. Marotta, 68-69TonkinGulfYachtClub, (1948-2007) Rest In Peace, our FRiend)
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To: NonValueAdded

The Dems will bring in some more refugees like Hmong or Somalie to keep their reps.


18 posted on 07/06/2007 7:23:33 AM PDT by ClaireSolt (Have you have gotten mixed up in a mish-masher?)
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To: NonValueAdded

You’ve visited Taconite Harbor in December, then ?


19 posted on 07/06/2007 7:24:38 AM PDT by Eric in the Ozarks (BTUs are my Beat.)
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To: quantim

I think they are looking for the states that will be at the margin of having to give up a seat, not those states that will be giving up a seat for sure.


20 posted on 07/06/2007 7:38:31 AM PDT by Paladin2 (Islam is the religion of violins, NOT peas.)
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To: MplsSteve

How much representation is ‘lost’ or shifted due to
counting non-citizens and even illegal aliens for purposes of representation?

It must be a lot.

we should have states make a determination that all congressional districts should be apportioned equally based on the number of citizens of voting age.

In the 2010 census, we should count the number of citizens and divide the districts accordingly.


21 posted on 07/06/2007 7:47:26 AM PDT by WOSG (thank the Senators who voted "NO": 202-224-3121, 1-866-340-9281)
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To: Eric in the Ozarks

Same here.

Take a look at the population growth in Dakota, Scott and Carver counties.

Definitely huge.

But the inner cities of Minneapolis and St Paul are losing population. And the Iron Range continues to bleed out.

My ex-girlfriend was an Iron Ranger. A rare Republican too.

She loved being by her family but there was really no future up there - unless you wanted to work full-time as a cashier at K-Mart. She left for the Twin Cities.

And that was back in the mid-80’s. I’m not sure things have gotten better up there either.

On a side note, a number of counties in western Minnesota (Yellow Medicine, Swift, Mahnomen, etc) are all feeling a loss in population too.


22 posted on 07/06/2007 7:49:54 AM PDT by MplsSteve
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To: brownsfan
I couldn’t agree more. Makes me wonder what’s wrong with Minnesotans?

Too nice. Can't believe someone (or in this case, about one billion members of a certain religion) would want to destroy them....
23 posted on 07/06/2007 7:55:01 AM PDT by newguy357
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To: Eric in the Ozarks

It is growing in pop. Just not as quickly as elsewhere.


24 posted on 07/06/2007 7:57:09 AM PDT by newguy357
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To: MplsSteve
I recall the Twin Cities Realtors would publish a parade of homes magazine in the spring, showing the local builders’ best and newest work. Hundreds of homes built south of the river. One or two in Mpls/St. Paul.
25 posted on 07/06/2007 7:59:54 AM PDT by Eric in the Ozarks (BTUs are my Beat.)
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To: MplsSteve; Clintonfatigued; JohnnyZ; Kuksool; BlackElk; AuH2ORepublican; Clemenza

It’s important we hold the Governorship and win back the legislature so Keef X and Betty Crocker can form a circular firing squad.


26 posted on 07/06/2007 8:05:36 AM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (~~~Jihad Fever -- Catch It !~~~ (Backup tag: "Live Fred or Die"))
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To: massgopguy
MA could lose two. I can’t wait to see them throw each other under the bus.

NYS will lose at least one.

Note to the nation: Vote for 'Rats and RINOs and all this, too, can be yours...

27 posted on 07/06/2007 8:07:58 AM PDT by mewzilla (Property must be secured or liberty cannot exist. John Adams)
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To: WOSG

Good question. I think you’re right.

Census counters in the inner cities of Mpls-St Paul will count every last illegal alien and transient they can.

Mayors RT Rybak and Chris Coleman will be (tongue in cheek) drive the census counters around personally if they have to.


28 posted on 07/06/2007 8:09:12 AM PDT by MplsSteve
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To: MplsSteve

And a conservative state will gain one hopefully!


29 posted on 07/06/2007 8:09:17 AM PDT by SConservative
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To: MplsSteve

With apologies to Henny Youngman, take my 5th Cong. District, please.


30 posted on 07/06/2007 8:09:51 AM PDT by TheLawyerFormerlyKnownAsAl
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To: TheLawyerFormerlyKnownAsAl
Hard to believe we’d miss the mouthbreather Sabo.
31 posted on 07/06/2007 8:21:45 AM PDT by Eric in the Ozarks (BTUs are my Beat.)
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To: Tanniker Smith

Diez.


32 posted on 07/06/2007 8:26:02 AM PDT by Old Professer (The critic writes with rapier pen, dips it twice, and writes again.)
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To: Eric in the Ozarks
Hard to believe we’d miss the mouthbreather Sabo.

Sabo's gone, no longer feeding at the public trough. Replaced by the CAIR's favorite representative.
33 posted on 07/06/2007 8:28:47 AM PDT by TheLawyerFormerlyKnownAsAl
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To: MplsSteve
All district lines would change if Minnesota loses a seat.

After the 1990 census, Democrats controlled redistricting in a lot more states than Republicans. They tried to gerrymander just right and they spread themselves too thin. Republicans seemed to have made the same mistake in 2000.

34 posted on 07/06/2007 11:39:33 AM PDT by Koblenz (The Dem Platform, condensed: 1. Tax and Spend. 2. Cut and Run. 3. Man on Man)
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To: MplsSteve; fieldmarshaldj; Clintonfatigued; Kuksool; JohnnyZ

How MN gets redistricted when it loses a House seat after 2010 (and it almost certainly will lose a House seat) will depend solely on who controls the state legislature and the governorship after the 2010 elections.

In 2001, Jesse Ventura was governor and the Dems and Republicans each controlled one house, so redistricting ended up in court, where they drew 3 rural districts, 2 urban districts and 3 suburban districts; before that, there were 4 rural CDs (one in each corner of the state) and 2 suburban CDs. Legislative Republicans had wanted to combine the St. Paul 4th with the Minneapolis 5th, but they didn’t have the votes.

If the state GOP has full control of the process in 2011, this is what I would advise that it does:

1. Create a minority-influence district that combines Minneapolis and its most heavily Democrat suburbs with St. Paul and some adjoining suburbs. The district would be defensible as a way of empowering minority voters, and would obviously serve to pack Democrats into a single district.

2. Create a Catholic Democrat district that starts off in the heavily Democrat Iron Range and, hugging the Wisconsin border, extends to St. Paul’s Democrat suburbs. It would be very difficult to draw a reliably Republican district that includes blue-collar Democrats from the Duluth area, and the Democrats in the St. Paul suburbs that would be left out of the combined Twin Cities CD would tend to make whatever district they are in lean Democrat, so combining these two groups in one district would allow a pro-life Catholic Democrat in the James Oberstar mold to be elected while making surrounding districts comfortably Republican.

3.-7. Create 5 GOP-leaning CDs in the rest of the state. The current MN-07, held by conservative Democrat Collin Peterson, could be extended to take in Republican parts of Oberstar’s MN-08 and other surrounding areas: The district would be sure to elect a Republican when Peterson retires, or if he finally switches parties. Southern MN could make up the redrawn MN-01, which would be more Republican than its current incarnation. Suburban GOP districts could be drawn in (i) Washington, Dakota, Scott and Carver counties (Kline), (ii) Hennepin and Wright counties (Ramstad or, hopefully, a pro-life replacement), and (iii) Anoka, Isanti, Chisago, Sherburne, Benton and Stearns counties (Bachmann).

If the GOP can draw 5 Republican CDs out of 7 in the state, it would be a huge victory. The trick is not to get too greedy by trying to draw 6 GOP CDs, or to make the MN-07 so Republican (in an attempt to knock off Peterson) that it gives the Democrats a chance of winning surrounding districts. But before any of that is possible, we need to (i) win control of both houses of the state legislature and (ii) retain the governorship in an open-seat race.


35 posted on 07/06/2007 12:03:37 PM PDT by AuH2ORepublican (http://auh2orepublican.blogspot.com/)
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To: MplsSteve
Raising my hand...

You can count 4 less conservatives in the very near future.

As soon as the daughter finishes high school, we're bailing on this state.

All life-long Minnesotas, all born in the cities -- raised the kids outstate though --- but outstate is getting strange too.

36 posted on 07/06/2007 2:02:52 PM PDT by coder2
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To: AuH2ORepublican

Interesting perspective.

Here’s one more (from a potential Dem perspective)...

The Dems in this state hate Michele Bachman, first term Rep from the Twin Cities’ northern suburbs. They are very obsessed with seeing her crash and burn.

Jim Oberstar’s district (8th CD) continues to bleed out. To increase population in the 8th CD, they throw northern Washington County and northern Anoka County from the 6th CD into the 8th CD. Maybe part of Stearns County too. Maybe all of Anoka County.

In short, Bachman is re-districted into the 8th CD and would face a very uncertain shot at re-election.


37 posted on 07/06/2007 2:12:48 PM PDT by MplsSteve
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To: coder2
I'm a native Texan, transplanted Minnesotan. I really like these Yankees, most of them. The farther you get from the Twin Cities, Duluth, and the Iron Range the more conservative they are. Just don't touch farm subsidies, or the ethanol subsidies. I hate to say it but I can't blame them, after all it's hard for a independent farmer to make a good living. He!! even the cotton farmers in West Texas (where I'm from) love their subsidies and tariffs, and they are die hard pubbies. When you are a farmer you really have to suck a little government teat now and again if you want to feed your family and put kids through college. I can't blame them, shoot, I grew up with them.

The suburbs of the Twin Cities are by and large right leaning if not solid pubbie. In our sleepy little village of Inver Grove Heights we are seeing a great deal of urban flight. All we ask, and we say it out loud, is that they don't bring their politics with them.

38 posted on 07/06/2007 2:24:18 PM PDT by timydnuc (I'll die on my feet before I'll live on my knees.)
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To: MplsSteve

If the Democrats focus on beating Bachmann instead of on drawing 5 Democrat CDs (and maybe a 6th CD where Peterson would win), the GOP will be able to win 2-3 CDs (and pick up the Peterson CD when he retires). Adding heavily GOP counties to Oberstar’s CD would make it a 50-50 district in presidential elections, and while Oberstar would likely be able to beat Bachmann, the district would probably go GOP within a few years. The Democrats should draw a hyper-Republican CD that takes in the suburban and exurban towns that voted 60%+ for Bush in 2004, even if it means that Bachmann beats out Ramstad and Kline in the primary.


39 posted on 07/06/2007 2:44:55 PM PDT by AuH2ORepublican (http://auh2orepublican.blogspot.com/)
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To: Eric in the Ozarks

That’s how I found the builder of my new house. Thankfully were up in fairly red Anoka County.


40 posted on 07/06/2007 4:22:11 PM PDT by miliantnutcase
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To: MplsSteve

Tax cuts would be a good start to keeping people here. The higher the taxes, the fewer the good jobs and less reason to stay.


41 posted on 07/06/2007 6:19:18 PM PDT by MrsPatriot (W...Still the President!)
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To: Eric in the Ozarks
You’ve visited Taconite Harbor in December, then ?

At least the water is open.

42 posted on 07/06/2007 6:26:20 PM PDT by johniegrad
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To: MplsSteve

At http://www.census.gov/popest/datasets.html
are the latest estimates.

If the 2006 estimates are near right, then MN 8 would get the 435th seat. However there were 4 years left in the decade as of the estimate, so MN would be hard pressed to hold the seat.

It appears GA has already gained a seat (not at the expense of MN yet) — it would have an outside shot at a 2nd...NC and SC appear to be holding even....maybe an outside shot at a seat.

FL looks like +1 already, TX +2, and CA at 0 but all 3 are close to another seat. IL and MI are at 0 and are looking at -1.


43 posted on 07/06/2007 7:29:30 PM PDT by scrabblehack
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To: scrabblehack; AuH2ORepublican

Its about damn time that California doesn’t gain any seats.


44 posted on 07/06/2007 7:32:47 PM PDT by Clemenza (Rudy Giuliani, like Pesto and Seattle, belongs in the scrap heap of '90s Culture)
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To: johniegrad

Yes. But after January 14th, it doesn’t matter.


45 posted on 07/06/2007 8:07:48 PM PDT by Eric in the Ozarks (BTUs are my Beat.)
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To: Clemenza

Agreed. CA has been gaining seats since 1850! And if we could just get Congress to pass a law providing that only legal permanent residents are counted as “inhabitants” for purposes of apportionment (i.e., including U.S. residents who are temporarily overseas, but excluding illegal aliens and foreigners with tourist visas), CA would actually lose a couple of seats.


46 posted on 07/06/2007 8:49:14 PM PDT by AuH2ORepublican (http://auh2orepublican.blogspot.com/)
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To: MplsSteve

If I recall the last time they redrew congressional lines there was talk about combining minneapolis and st. paul but there was lots of objections cause then the inner cities would be underrepresented....or some such gobbly gook. so they expanded those two districts into the suburbs then. I’m sure that’s what they’d do again.


47 posted on 07/07/2007 7:58:08 PM PDT by tickles
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To: coder2

That outstate thingy that was started by the idiots in the media has always bugged me. Makes it sound like anyone who lives outside the twin cities area really isn’t a part of the state.

OK rant off. LOL


48 posted on 07/07/2007 8:08:46 PM PDT by tickles
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To: tickles
They only want the MONEY from outstate ---- other than that, we are outsiders for sure...
49 posted on 07/08/2007 7:51:12 AM PDT by coder2
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