Posted on 08/10/2007 4:40:57 AM PDT by Kaslin
WASHINGTON -- Worsening disapproval scores for the Democrats in Congress have spawned party-wide fears that voter alienation could give Republicans a chance to make a comeback in 2008.
The Democrats' tumbling voter-approval numbers haven't drawn much attention on the nightly news shows, but they have stirred warnings in the party's inner circles and raised hopes among GOP strategists for the first time since last year's election rout drove them from power.
A string of independent polls in the past two weeks tells the story: -- A nationwide Pew Research Center poll found that barely 33 percent of Americans surveyed "approve of the job performance of the Democratic Congress." Equally disturbing to Democrats, their party's leadership "can claim just a 62 percent approval score among Democrats."
-- The Gallup Poll reported "that 55 percent of Americans disapprove of Democrats in Congress."
These and other internal polls have sent tremors through Democratic ranks, and campaign strategists are warning their party to start taking them seriously before it's too late.
"Democrats should not be for complacency in the face of lost trust in Congress and perceptions that the new Congress is not effective or honoring its pledges," party advisers James Carville and Stan Greenberg warned in a midyear strategy memo to Democratic leaders.
Republican numbers are not any better. But the "Democrats should not relish an increasingly alienated electorate on any grounds; increasing alienation from both parties can drive down turnout and create protest voters looking for other vehicles for change," the two strategists said.
That points to fear of a third-party presidential candidacy that could hurt Democratic chances to win back the White House and undermine their tenuous hold on Congress -- a fear no longer dismissed by party leaders.
The testy political climate can hurt both parties, they said. "The mood of the country grows uglier ... and the Democratic Congress and leaders have lost some of the earlier glow; a 55 percent majority believes Democrats have not made progress on their election pledges," the memo said.
Up until now, Democrats have blamed their declining poll ratings on the party's failure to legislate a troop-withdrawal deadline in the Iraq war. "The Democrats are frustrated. They want the war to end quicker than it appears it will," a senior party official told me. But the finer polling data and reports from the party's grassroots base suggest that voter angst runs deeper than that. They see a party engaged in vengeful inquisitions against the Bush administration that have yielded no evidence of wrongdoing, while poisoning the political atmosphere and sinking Congress deeper into legislative gridlock.
A wave of Democratic investigations "creates the perception they are launching witch-hunts," said David Wasserman, House elections analyst at the Cook Political Report.
A Greenberg poll accompanying the Carville-Greenberg memo noted ominously "that, faced with the current gridlock, 12 percent want to vote for an independent candidate for president or Congress, a fairly impressive base for an independent candidacy." Worse, they added, "almost a third of independents are ready to respond in this way. The situation in Washington does have consequences, which is why Democrats have an obligation to address the mood" that has alienated voters.
The Democrats' mediocre approval ratings and restive political base have clearly buoyed GOP spirits, particularly at the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC).
"Such widespread dissatisfaction is creating a palpable sense of panic among Democrats," the NRCC crowed in a memo last week in response to the Carville-Greenberg warnings.
An NRCC internal poll of likely voters in 50 targeted districts held by Democrats is fueling GOP hopes they will benefit from the Democrats' troubles. It showed, among other things, that "voters are not only frustrated with the new majority's inability to get things done but that voters are not at all loyal to their current Democrat member and are in a firing mood."
Notably, the poll found that "only 35 percent of the voters say they will vote to re-elect their current Democratic congressman in these districts. Half -- 50 percent -- prefer someone new."
Another bullish sign for the GOP, House candidate recruitment "is way up," officials told me.
Carville and Greenberg disagreed, pointing to their own polling of 1,451 likely voters July 25-30 in 35 key congressional districts that show their incumbents holding "dramatic leads" over any Republican challenger. But none of the polls may mean much until one can match real live candidates against one another in the general election.
Clearly, congressional Democrats and their leaders have failed to meet the minimum expectations of the voters who elected them, as the latest poll numbers attest. This opens a window of opportunity for Republicans and the White House to sharpen issues that will help strengthen their grassroots support and boost their share of independent swing voters who are up for grabs.
Still, Wasserman thinks a lot will depend on how the Iraq war plays out and whether it will dwindle as an issue if, as administration officials have been saying, preliminary troop withdrawals begin next year.
"We could see anything from a handful of small gains for Republicans in the House or a handful of Democratic gains," he said.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Rats will still vote for Rats. What I hear is liberals saying that they will hold their nose and vote for any donk, including Hillary because they cannot ever, under any circumstances, vote for any Republican.
bookmark
And from Republicans you hear the exact opposite...no unity of purpose.
That is why I have been predicting Hillary Clinton will be our next president since before 2006.
This is nothing new. In 2000 Conservatives did the same thing... hold their nose and vote for the Republican because they could not under any circumstances vote for any Democrat. But that was after we saw the consequences of 8 years with a Democratic White House. Now we're too busy forming up a circular firing squad and debating who is "pure" enough. Of course that's what primaries are for... it's AFTER the primaries that will be telling.
-—with Repubs such as Arlen Spector still pulling the levers, I don’t have much hope either-—
Why return the same-o GOP? They had a decade and made a mess.
As long as the leadership/control of the GOP is still by the big-business country-club Republicans, returning them will result in the same policies the last Republican majority pushed.
It was the GOP that tried to push through amnesty for illegals in 2006. It is a GOP President who has been and continues to push for amnesty for illegals. It was the GOP who has the open checkbook for pork projects. That ‘bridge to nowhere’ was passed when the GOP controlled Congress and the beneficiary was Republican Senator Stevens.
More of the same is not “better”.
Do Nothing Nancy’s congress is in a Quagmire
Pray for W and Our Troops
I think Hillary will get crushed by Fred or Rudy and we’ll take the house by storm. Unfortunately, we have no shot at the Senate. IMHO of course.
Latest fundraising letter I got from the RNC went directly into the trash. I now send my $$ to Randy Forbes, my reliably conservative congressman. It’s no longer business as usual, IMHO. Flame away. Shields ....SHIELDS!!!
I have no faith in our government. I have complete disdain for both parties and I think the only thing that will reverse the sorry direction our country is taking is a complete & utter housecleaning at ALL levels of government.
We need to institute term limits and get these lifetime “roosters” out of office.
Experience in politics = greed, egotism and corruption. Let’s get some new blood in there before they destroy us.
I know this, you know this, and most on this board know this.
The problem is the general electorate know little to nothing about what’s actually happening, the life long bureaucrats have achieved their goal, the majority of the American voting public is thoroughly ignorant of politics and policy and vote like it’s American Idol.
This is the thing that truly saddens me the most though, I enjoy knowing where candidates stand on issues and vote in the primaries for that candidate that I feel embodies my beliefs.
In the general election though, I go for the most conservative of the candidates running who has the best chance of getting in office.
I feel that the biggest issue with conservatives now though, if they don’t get the perfect candidate in the general election they don’t vote in protest and let the rats get in, that’s cutting off your nose to spite your face.
Trip and fall.
I think you are right they have no ideas that I can see almost. The one idea they had that has been popular has been the minimum wage increase. Which passed with broad support.
They need solutions and new ideas to be popular imo. For example they are terrified of carbon emissions. Alright how about we slam in tens and tens of nuclear plants, buying from GE and Westinghouse creating tens of thousands of very high paying jobs. Nope they are against nuclear.
Instead they want carbon taxes, and to shrink the cars we drive and homes we live in.. Talk about unpopular. All their ideas go in the same vein. They point out an alleged problem, but then they are against any solution.
Boy, do we need to get back to basics in school. It's getting so bad that even the staunchest liberals I know have to grudgingly admit that the current system isn't working. I'm taking some college classes & they are having to institute a new program there to teach college kids to read!
As far as the Republicans not willing to hold their noses any longer and vote - I know I would never vote for a democrat & I also know that I would never stay home & NOT vote - but I don't know how I will vote if my choices are once again, the lesser of two evils.
Sometimes holding your nose and voting for the Republican whether he’s your first choice or not is all you can do, otherwise you’re stuck with rats running the show, like we have now because conservative voters wanted to teach the RNC a lesson.
Conservatives need to realize that the primaries are for debating who has the most conservatives credentials, and that’s just fine, but we need to back which ever candidate wins in the general election in order to stop the rats from getting greater control and implementing socialist policies unopposed.
Though in the end I believe they all need to be voted out and have our government start fresh with people who listen to their constituency, unfortunately they don’t now, they only listen to their party platform and ignore us.
That “remedial lesson” bravo sierra is what cost us the Congress last time.
I respectfully submit that the ‘bravo sierra’ that cost us the Congress last time around was coming out of Republican congressmen acting like Democrats.
I understand the intent of those who do exactly this but the impact has been devastating: we now have Repubs who are almost identical to their Dim counterparts and the whole GOP now knows their move left is acceptable to their voters.
I dream of a viable third party emerging from the vacancy on the right that the GOP left.
Thank whatever God may be for political pigs like Hillary
You are 100% correct. My question to everyone is - when is the end? At what point do we undertake the cleaning-out? Do we baby boomers stall and wait & put it off until we leave it to the next generation? When do we start the process?
And this is untrue in what way?
That’s the million dollar question.
I’m not a baby boomer, I’m 30, but I believe the end is when the voting public finally decides to educate itself.
Do I believe they ever will?
I really don’t know, I look back to our ancestors and see how many of them were far more educated in politics in the past and many voted based on issues instead of popularity.
If the noms to end up Hillary and Giuliani, will he fold between the Convention and the election and give her the election by default? Is that the plan?
Why would G face her for the presidency, when he wouldn’t face her for the Senate race?
It all smells........badly.
She can’t win... so, she debacle... the MSM doesn’t want to face reality.... and Junior (obama) is a jackass.
Bill won because of Perot... and then Dole
I definitely agree about the circular firing squad of the GOP.
I am not so sure about Hillary winning the general election, though.
The donks may split, with the really far left progressives voting against any so-called *centrist* (as they describe Hillary). Meanwhile, either Thompson or Guiliani could pick up independants and some slightly more conservative Dems.
I also hear a lot of trepidation in the voices of saner donk voters when they contemplate *having to vote* for Hillary rather than any Republican. I have been asked, with mounting enthusiasm, what I think of Bloomberg! Since I usually just laugh hysterically at that question, they end up really disappointed-looking. Many Democrats would rather vote for a RINO and many of those seem to really think that money is the absolute determinate of winning the presidency.
I also find it amusing that older liberals seem to think my opinion is important, considering that my husband and I are probably the only conservative libertarians they know. If that is such a laugable ideology, then why even inquire as to our opinions?
Does it make a lot of difference? On security, I actually think Hillary would use force quicker than most RINOs, just because I think she would have to prove that a woman could authorize a nuclear response and also because I think she has major anger issues. While any response on her part would be mainly mediated by political considerations, I think she would deviate from her advisors just because, as POTUS, she could. It would be a show of personal power, which I think is extremely important to her and to the feminists. I also think she would use the threat of terror to consolidate governmental control over all aspects of our lives.
Economically, I have been very disappointed in the votes of many of the GOP and I do not consider most of them capable of suporting capitalism, let alone the Constitution. I think most Americans would just respond to increasing incremental socialism by finding ways to lower their AGI, take advantage of government programs and work in the gray/black economies. If cash is totally replaced by controlled deposits/withdrawal systems, all bets are off as to the ability of Americans to resist. I think this is even more important than the 2nd Amendment. Until they are hauled off for sensitivity training, I don’t see most Americans capable of considering revolution and after being forcibly inculcated, their capability to even consider that option would be lowered even more. IMO.
I am increasingly pessimistic about our future. Unless a sizeable percentage of the people under 45 throw off PC, consensus, Green ideology disguised as “wanting to be seen as a good person”, and the increasing polarizations along all societal/cultural divides and vote for liberty and individualism, I do not see how we return America to the nation we older folks remember.
God help this great country if she does become president
Fred will have my vote when he runs
The author doesn’t say it is not true. The liberals have indeed launched witch-hunts
I won't say this is a factor but if you are trying to say Perot was no factor in that election, I don't buy this for a second.
I know all the candidates, so I am not ignorant, but I have certainly become apathetic.
At this juncture, even if my vote was the deciding vote in the election, I would stay home, rather than vote for any candidates that are, at present, likely to be on the ballot.
I voted for Perot because I despised both Clinton and Bush.
I was going to get a loser either way.
No debate trick... but Perot WAS a factor.
Thanks a lot for taking the rest of us down with you. ;-)
All they have is hating President Bush.
This does seem to be their platform. Whether they outright say it or imply it. I’m mad as heck about some of the things he did. But I voted for him twice and I would vote for him again in a heartbeat, if there were no viable alternative.
I hear ya. Same thing here but different name. Not my congressmonster though. SF Bay Area will never have one conservative enough for me.
I agree.
BTW-love your tagline!
The only thing that will reverse this country is GOD! We need to quit whining and start praying. He has a plan for our country. We need to get on THAT path instead of relying on government officials, congress, or anyone else for that matter. Without God, our country is lost and going to hell.
A movement is building here to draft Forbes for the Senate seat of our Senile Senator John Warner. He’d be a good ‘un, not a RINO like Warner.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.