Posted on 08/10/2007 9:09:33 AM PDT by gandalftb
The jirga of tribal leaders from Pakistan and Afghanistan was to be followed up with strikes at militant bases.
The trouble is, the bases the US identified no longer exist. The naive, rustic Taliban still want a fight, but it will be fought on the Taliban's battlegrounds.
Twenty-nine bases in Waziristan used to train militants have fallen off the radar. Since early this month, no intelligence has detected any movement in the camps.
Human intelligence suggests the bases have been dismantled, apart from one run by hardline Mullah Abdul Khaliq. All other leading Taliban commanders, including Sirajuddin Haqqani, Gul Bahadur, Baitullah Mehsud and Haji Omar, have disappeared. Similarly, the top echelons of the Arab community holed up in Waziristan has also gone.
The al-Qaeda leadership installed itself in Jani Khel in Bannu of NWFP. This includes al-Zawahiri.
The Taliban leadership, most prominently Haqqani, is concentrated in Khost and Gardez.
The spillover of al-Qaeda's presence in Jani Khel is likely to spread to Karak, Kohat, Tank, Laki Marwat and Dera Ismail Khan in Pakistan. Kohat is to become a central city and all operations will be directed through this area.
A second war corridor is expected to be in Waziristan, Khyber Agency, Kurram Agency, Bajaur Agency, Dir, Mohmand Agency and Chitral in Pakistan; and Nanagarhar, Kunar and Nooristan in Afghanistan
The death of Mullah Dadullah set a major change within the Taliban.
The entire leadership left Helmand, Urzgan, Zabul and Kandahar and sat in Quetta, Pakistan, for weeks.
Finally, in June, Taliban leader Mullah Omar outlined new guidelines, which included:
No members of the central military command would work in southwestern Afghanistan.
Group commanders would be given control of specific districts to develop their own strategy.
The Taliban would discourage personality cults like Dadullah's.
Four spokesmen were appointed to decentralize the Taliban media-information. They have all been given the same name, Qari Yousuf Ahmedi.
(Excerpt) Read more at atimes.com ...
Of course the rats went to ground the minute we gave target info to the Pakis. It was not the ISI or any intel leak within the Paki military. It is much more simple, the Paki military command is a gossip festival, no secret survives for long.
The Pakis widely believe NATO will leave Afghanistan someday and the Taliban influence will return especially within the Pashtun community of which there are millions on both sides of the border. Pakistan sees its practical future as having relations with the Taliban so they tiptoe around them.
The Pakis well know the mayhem the Taliban can cause throughout Pakistan and have made a devil's choice. That's the reality.
Now, the Pakis and many Taliban hate the AQ and would attack them if only they could sort them out of the Waziris who protect them. The problem is that many foreign muj married into Waziri and Pastun clans, guaranteeing protection for themselves and any new "cousins" that show up.
If you want something done right, do it yourself.
MV
I might suggest a really simple solution to that problem.
L
The word 'megaton' comes to mind ...
A bit smug, still, I don't think they'll be collecting the Afghan equivalent of social security, if there is one.
ping
I wonder if the poppy fields are down wind?
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