Posted on 08/11/2007 1:51:34 PM PDT by Renfield
That's the report from Roggio (quoted at Hot Air).
It seems to me the alarming thing isn't "What are these suddenly-evacuated jihadis up to?" but more "What are already in-position jihadis planning that requires the evacuation of terrorist camps due to fear of coming retaliatory airstrikes and ground offensives?"
Given the fact that the terrorists safe havens in Pakistan have been pretty secure until now (no matter what Musharraf might say), their leaving is worrisome. If it's true, of course.
Al Qaeda, of course, assassinated the leader of the Northern Alliance just two days before 9/11, anticipating the Northern Alliance would figure in an anti-Taliban/anti-AQ offensive. They anticipated the likely major response to 9/11. After having attempted to kill Musharraf multiple times and multiple large bombings and the Red Mosque standoff, what sort of outrage would the jihadis be contemplating to suddenly worry about a real Pakistani or US attack on their camps?
Not to be alarmist, but Roggio mentions worries about Pakistan's nuclear arsenal.
When did they “empty out?”
Pakistan: Concern over nukes as al Qaeda camps empty
http://billroggio.com/archives/2007/08/pakistan_concern_ove.php
US intelligence investigates Pakistan’s nuclear security and the military’s loyalty to Musharraf as the Northwest Frontier Province spins further out of control
As the security situation in the Northwest Frontier Province continues to deteriorate and President Pervez Musharraf’s political stock continues to drop, the US military intelligence community is “urgently assessing how secure Pakistan’s nuclear weapons would be in the event President Gen. Pervez Musharraf were replaced.” Meanwhile, the Taliban and al Qaeda have dispersed operatives from the training camps in the Northwest Frontier Province and are preparing to fight on their own terms.
With the Pakistani government facing a robust Taliban insurgency in the Northwest Frontier Province, a significant al Qaeda presence inside the country and a violent cadre of home grown Islamist extremists, the security of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal has taken on an elevated importance. The US intelligence community believes it has a handle on the location of Pakistan’s nuclear warhead, but there are questions over who controls the launch codes in the event of Musharraf’s passing.
The Us is also looking past the issue of the security of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal. The loyalty of the conventional Pakistani military to President Musharraf is in question, according to CNN. Musharraf controls the loyalty of the commanders and senior officials in charge of the nuclear program, but those loyalties could shift at any point,” CNN reported on August 10. “There is also a growing understanding according to the U.S. analysis that Musharraf’s control over the military remains limited to certain top commanders and units, raising worries about whether he can maintain control over the long term.”
On the same day of the release of news on concerns over the security of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal and the loyalty of the Pakistani military, the Asia Times’ Syed Saleem Shahzad reported al Qaeda and Taliban camps in North and South Waziristan have emptied, the Taliban and al Qaeda are expanding into the settled districts of the Northwest Frontier Province, and are reorganizing in both Afghanistan and Pakistan for a major fight.
The Fourth Rail interviewed a senior military intelligence official and a military officer, both of whom are familiar with the situation in the Northwest Frontier Province and wish to remain anonymous. The sources confirmed Mr. Shahzad’s information concerning the al Qaeda and Taliban camps in North Waziristan and the Taliban’s reorganization is accurate. Both sources are particularly concerned about the implications of the emptying of the camps.
Mr. Shahzad reported there were 29 al Qaeda and Taliban camps in North and South Waziristan, and all but one “have been dismantled, apart from one run by hardline Islamist Mullah Abdul Khaliq.” [Note: on October 4, 2006, The Fourth Rail reported “there are over 20 al Qaeda and Taliban run training camps currently in operation in North and South Waziristan.”] While The Fourth Rail sources verify the camps’ existence, they noted the camps have not been dismantled, but the infrastructure is still in place. “The physical infrastructure (camps and the like) still exist, they haven’t been dismantled. They’ve just been abandoned or are being operated by skeleton crews,” the senior military intelligence source said, while noting “the Khaliq camp is only churning out Taliban, not al Qaeda.”
The al Qaeda and Taliban personnel abandoned the 28 camps after “the US had presented Islamabad with a dossier detailing the location of the bases as advance information on likely US targets,” Mr. Shahzad reported. “All other leading Taliban commanders, including Sirajuddin Haqqani, Gul Bahadur, Baitullah Mehsud and Haji Omar, have disappeared,” said Mr. Shahzad.
“Similarly, the top echelons of the Arab community that was holed up in North Waziristan has also gone.” Pakistan’s military and intelligence agencies are believed to have leaked information to the Taliban and al Qaeda in the past, and appears to have done so again.
The emptying of the camps is a cause for great concern in the military and intelligence communities. “We don’t know where they went to or who was in the camps,” the military officer told The Fourth Rail.. “They are well trained, these aren’t your entry level jihadis. They are dangerous.”
“This is one of the reasons that we are worried about a major CONUS [Continental United States] attack,” the senior military intelligence source told The Fourth Rail, noting the recent influx of news of terror cells attempting to penetrate the US. “If they evacuated their bases, they almost certainly did so out of fear of more than just the Pakistani army.”
Mr. Shahzad also reported Ayman al Zawahiri, al Qaeda’s second in command, along with the Shura Majlis, is currently based out of the village of Jani Khel village in the settled district of Bannu. Sirajuddin Haqqani and the Taliban Shura are operating in the eastern Afghan provinces of Khost and Gardez.
A spillover of al-Qaeda’s presence in Jani Khel is likely to spread to Karak, Kohat, Tank, Laki Marwat and Dera Ismail Khan in Pakistan. Kohat in NWFP is tipped to become a central city in the upcoming battle, as the office of the Pakistani Garrison commanding officer is there and all operations will be directed through this area. In addition, Kohat is directly linked with a US airfield in Khost for supplies and logistics.
A second war corridor is expected to be in the Waziristans, the Khyber Agency, the Kurram Agency, Bajaur Agency, Dir, Mohmand Agency and Chitral in Pakistan and Nanagarhar, Kunar and Nooristan in Afghanistan.
The Fourth Rail has repeatedly identified Bannu, Kohat, Tank, Laki Marwat, Dera Ismail Khan, Khyber, Kurram, Dir and Mohmand as Taliban controlled or influenced territory over the course of the past two years.
Quetta. Satellite Town is in the southwest corner.
According to Mr. Shahzad, the Afghan Taliban has reorganized its leadership and devolved its command structure away from senior, regional leaders to local leaders after the death of senior Taliban commanders Mullah Akhtar Usmani and Mullah Dadullah Akhund. The Taliban leadership has been decimated by NATO and Afghan strikes in southern Afghanistan over the past year, and have regrouped in Satellite Town in Quetta, the provincial capital of Baluchistan. Quetta has long been identified as a Taliban command hub. Pakistani security forces captured Mullah Obaidullah Akhund, a former Defense Minister and member of the Shura Majlis, in a hotel in Quetta.
According to the senior military intelligence source, senior Taliban leaders are hesitant to enter southern Afghanistan due to NATO successes against the Taliban command structure, and have devolved control to the regional commanders out of necessity.
Mr. Shahzad postulates the Pakistani military will move in force into the Northwest Frontier Province after the Pakistan-Afghanistan tribal jirga concludes. But the existing evidence does not support this theory at this time. While the Pakistani government claims it has moved additional forces into the tribal areas, these troops have been subjected to brutal suicide, roadside bombs, ambush and mortar and rocket attacks. Over 200 military personnel have been killed since mid-July, while the Pakistani military’s previous foray into North and South Waziristan from 2004 – 2006 resulted in upward of 3,000 soldiers killed. The Pakistani military has done little other than press for more negotiations with the Taliban while conducting retaliatory strikes, largely using artillery and air power.
On August 10, 16 Pakistani troops were kidnapped in South Waziristan. Yet Pakistani military spokesman Major General Waheed Arshad confirmed the military is still in a defensive posture, reacting to attacks. “There is no planned operation going on in North Waziristan but we are responding with greater force against militant attacks on security forces now,” said Arshad.
Also, the end of the summer is approaching and the Pakistani military has yet to launch the purported campaign. Winter is fast approaching in some of the most inhospitable terrain on the planet, where al Qaeda and the Taliban are dug in and have deep ties with the local residents. The ideal time for the military to launch operations would have been the spring, leaving the summer open to conduct a campaign which will be difficult and bloody enough without battling the terrain and elements.
^
Whoa...
AQ’s training camps are emptying out because Musharaff has sent 90,000 Pakistani troops with air support against them.
Further, new recruitment is difficult for Al-Q because no one knows who is left alive among their senior leadership (videos are old or of junior officers).
Al-Qadea has also gotten waxed on the ground in Afghanistan and Iraq.
...So much for their latest “offensive.”
;)
This country better hold on tight, ‘cuz it’s going to be a bumpy ride.
It’s over. The Dem candidates have been sounding a little more interested in crushing terrorism and they were islamisms last hope.
Yawn...
>>
“This is one of the reasons that we are worried about a major CONUS [Continental United States] attack,”
<<
Well, at least we know our strong southern border fence will make it very difficult, if not impossible, for any of them to sneak into the country.
Perhaps the following piece will help explain some of the missing.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Pakistan, Afghanistan agree for joint anti-terror operation
11/08/07 KABUL: Various committees constituted in Pak- Afghan Grand Jirga in Kabul Saturday firnalized their recommendations.
Pakistan and Afghanistan have agreed for joint operation against terrorists in each other’s territories, the committees’ have recommended.
The two sides in meeting between President Musharraf and Afghan President Hamid Karzai will urge for dialogue with Gulbuddin Hikmatyar and the Taliban movement.
The two sides would also try to bring those in the fold of Jirga in the next meeting who were absent in present moot.
Minister of Interior Aftab Ahmed Sherpao has said the closing session of the Pak- Afghan Grand Jirga will be held tomorrow at 11:00 am.
President Musharraf after his arrival in Kabul will meet President Karzai at the presidential palace here, he added.
Maybe it’s not just sub-prime mortgages giving the Dow the willies...?
Whats that? The Roach Motels are emptying out.Is there anyone here that has a handy can of Raid available?
If we knew they were there why didn’t we eliminate them and everyone at them?
Also, on the nuke part, I still believe Mushi has them all.
Sumpin’s up.
Yup, this story was posted yesterday: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1879289/posts
Oh my, thanks for the ping.
If we know they’re clearing out why don’t we just blast out of their shoes to kingdom come?
Going out for dinner tonight, last supper?? lol At this point I can only laugh because otherwise one can go nuts over this. It will happen but WHEN is the question???
If we knew where these training camps were, why didn’t we take ‘em out before they disappeared? Inquiring minds want to know.
They empied out about two weeks ago, except for one camp.
Bump
Because sometimes you can learn more by watching than you can by basting.
I see we’re all on the same page about blasting them.
If they attack the Continental US I expect an attack on Israel soon after.
nahhh...dont worry
its not like they have gone missing
the classes were moved for the practicum in America
One way plane tickets to America?
They are sitting ducks in the camps now that Pakistan is sending in helicopters.
The just concluded jirga is recommending joint Afghan/Paki operations against AQ. The jirga, 400+ tribal chiefs, is reaching out to Gulbuddin Hikmatyar and the Taliban to distance from AQ and rat them out.
Waziristan is a Taliban sheikdom and wants the AQ foreign thugs gone.
The al Qaeda and Taliban personnel abandoned the 28 camps after “the US had presented Islamabad with a dossier detailing the location of the bases as advance information on likely US targets,” Mr. Shahzad reported.
This pretty well explains why the camps were abandoned - few people really want to be the target of smart bombs dropping from an apparently empty sky. Pack up and move to a different location.
Thanks RR for the ping.
#
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1875105/posts?page=792#792
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1875105/posts?page=793#793
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1875105/posts?page=795#795
New Al-Qaeda technique revealed. THis was posted on FR earlier at: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1870960/posts
A new technique using solo operatives trained on the internet is ouotlined by an Indian think tank www.saag.org....their article is posted in the above link.
Yep, I read those on the TM. Thanks for bringing them over here.
Here is the Indian think tank paper on the new Al-Qaeda technique....To: gov_bean_ counter
Great new review of Al-Qaeda tactic changes from a private, non-commercial Indian think tank...scroll down...
Paper no. 2303
18.07.2007
AL QAEDA CHANGES TACTICS: TO RELY ON JUNDULLAHS MORE & MORE - INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR: PAPER NO. 258
By B. Raman
Al Qaeda has changed its tactics——particularly for its operations in the Western world and other non-Islamic countries such as India.
2. Future operations will be carried out not by organisations such as Al Qaeda itself or by the member-organisations of the International Islamic Front (IIF) formed by it in 1998. They will be planned and carried out by Jundullahs (Soldiers of Allah), who are individual Muslims, self-motivated, self-trained through the Internet and deciding on their targets and actions autonomously without the need for a centralised command and control.
3. The future role of Al Qaeda outside Iraq and Afghanistan would be to indicate targets through the messages of Ayman al-Zawahiri, its No.2, and through the messages of its propaganda wing (As Sahab), and to disseminate, via the Internet, training instructions on the basis of its experience in Iraq and Afghanistan.
4. Let jihadis arise wherever they can and whenever they can. Let them act however they can. There is no need to claim responsibility or credit on behalf of Al Qaeda or any other organisation. That is its message to the potential jihadis across the world.
5. Al Qaeda’s command and control and training infrastructure based in Pakistan’s tribal areas would continue to guide and co-ordinate its operations against Western forces in Iraq and Afghanistan. Its leadership wants jihadis in other countries to assist it in its operations in Afghanistan and Iraq by sapping the will of the Western public opinion to stay and fight in Afghanistan and Iraq. It feels time is on its side.
6. The recent video of Al Qaeda’s propaganda wing carrying excerpts from past messages of Osama bin Laden and other Al Qaeda fighters glorifying the Islamic concept of martyrdom has been disseminated in pursuance of this new tactics. “Arise wherever you are and martyr yourself”——that is the hidden message it has sought to convey.
7. The latest video’s central message is: “‘By Him in Whose Hands my life is! I would love to attack and be martyred, then attack again and be martyred, then attack again and be martyred.’”
8. Al Qaeda wants to aggravate the divide between the Muslims and non-Muslims in the non-Islamic world, including the West and India.
9. The more the Jundullahs, the more the suspicion and fear of Muslims in non-Muslim communities. The more the suspicion and fear of Muslims in the non-Muslim communities, the more the Jundullahs. That is Al Qaeda’s calculation.
10. Al Qaeda’s new tactics has to be countered operationally. The only way of doing so is by denying it victory in Iraq and Afghanistan. The time is not for the withdrawal of the Western forces from there. It is for making them more effective than they are today. Al Qaeda has to be made to realise that the time is not on its side, but on the side of the civilised world.
11. There has been too much focus on Al Qaeda’s perceived strengths as one could see from the latest US National Intelligence Estimate released on July 17, 2007. It is important to identify its weaknesses, which can be exploited. It is important to demonstrate that the determination of the international community to co-operate in countering Al Qaeda and other kinds of jihadi terrorism remains as strong as ever and will remain as strong as ever till jihadi terrorism withers away. It is equally important to demonstrate that the national and international consensus on this subject remains as strong as ever.
12. Somehow or the other, Al Qaeda and its jihadi associates are getting an impression that international co-operation, national will and consensus are weakening. This impression has to be removed.
NOTE: This may please be read in continuation of my earlier articles mentioned below:
(a).THE JUNDULLAH PHENOMENON at http://www.saag.org/papers23/paper2211.html
(b).THE JUNDULLAH IN UK? at http://www.saag.org/papers23/paper2285.html
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: itschen36@gmail.com)
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30 or 40 mini neutron bombs would accomplish exactly the same thing as a can of Raid. The ordinance need not be more than a 500# conventional bomb. Not even enough to disturb the mice.
You’re welcome RR.
Stepped up security in NY and hopefully in Miami and Los Angeles.
Training camps emptied out.
Dow Jones takes a nose dive.
The article posted is very reasonably written. Plain language, not hysterical. That scares me.
I'm sure if the President made a public appeal for volunteer Cat 9 owners and operators to come forth, and provided transportation (rail, ship and armed guards in Saudi Arabia), he'd find an enthusiastic response.
That won't get the job done by them. We'll swat them down, one by one.
My guess: Pat Leahy and other DemonRat sympathizers leaked intelligence to their friends in AQ.
Maybe it's the end of your first sentence, but what do I know............Airstrikes and ground offensives have a tendency to ruin anybody's week.........
Something I posted on another FR thread related to the Debka report re NY, Miami, LA...Of significance. Homeland Security knows and acknowleges that if any 3 US major ports are taken out of action, ALL WORLD SEA COMMERCE ceases within 2 weeks, and once this happens, it will take many months to resume if no further disruptions occur. This is a little known mechanism by the public that would bring down stockmarkets the world over, as well as threaten a certain , dominant world currency. Even if this report comes from Debka, it must be taken seriously, and, port security must be heightened. This is due to the extremely close computer scheduling of world-wide commerce for port access for loading and unloading. China is so advanced, that custom fashiom orders are recognized for production and shipment only a few weeks before actual shipment. Their whole economy would crash also, although my concern is in regard to ours. Al-Qaeda has threatened 7 cities consistently..NY, Boston, Washington,DC, Miami, Houston, LA and Las Vegas (for ‘moral’ reasons)....5 of the 7 targets are major ports.
My deployed relative in ‘Stan...a MI Army Officer. I’m confident he’s up to his ears in all this. Nothin’ like top notch intel...helps to get the bad guys. That 24/7 hunt our troops have been doing from the get-go is now paying off. Got ‘em on the run...you can run but can’t hide.
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You’re right! Ports being hit would likely cripple us for quite a while. Remember that one Arab country that wanted to buy....crap, can’t remember which one. Anyway, these ports need to be kept under domestic control for security reasons.
So now I’m wondering if Los Angeles gets hit, which way will the radiation blow? Lord, I just hate those b@stards :(
It doesn't work that way, idiot.
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