Posted on 08/11/2007 6:36:33 PM PDT by AKSurprise
Romney's 31.5% victory is almost exactly what then-Gov. Bush picked up at Ames in 1999, but Romney's margin over his nearest competitor was higher than what Bush won with. Romney bested Mike Huckabee by 13% while Bush defeated Steve Forbes by 10%.
Huckabee's second place finish is a surprise and could offer the Arkansan a nice boost. Sam Brownback clearly spent more money on his effort -- he rented buses while Huckabee couldn't afford any -- but came up about 400 votes shy of Huckabee.
After putting in the effort he did today and in the weeks leading up to Ames, Brownback's third place finish will prompt questions about his ability to carry on in the race.
Romney spent millions to get this.
I wonder how much President Bush spent.
Ames shot 69 to finish at 4 under, only 3 behind Tiger....ooops, wrong Ames!
Nice to see the court jester finished poorly.
Well it helps to have people included in the race who aren’t running. Also you have people who are running but didn’t bother to show up. It’s the sorry state of American Idle politics today.
“Well it helps to have people included in the race who aren’t running. Also you have people who are running but didn’t bother to show up. It’s the sorry state of American Idle politics today.”
It sure is weird.
And getting back to spending, when Romney spends so much when this isn’t even a primary, it makes me wonder how much he would spend if he ever became president of our tax dollars.
I think Romney will fizzle out though, as conservatives learn how liberal he is.
Political analysts say most people just aren’t paying attention yet.
“NO one would vote for a vile Mormon unless they were bribed to.”
This Baptist would. Were not electing a religious leader here. A Pastor in Chief.
But if you want to send the bribe money......:o)
Can anyone conceive of an alternative result that could possibly make this “poll” LESS relevant to the race for the GOP nomination?
I have nothing against Mormons, but I am against liberals, and Romney is a big lib.
Jeff Mitchell, one of our guys in the Fred Thompson booth, wrote: “The big story out of Ames is the total number of votes cast; ~13,000. This is less than half of the votes cast in the 2000 election. This tells me that there is still lots of folks waiting on the sidelines to see who will break-out.”
http://draftfredthompson.com/index.php/topic,8931.0.html
Look at his economic and business records, you’ll see exactly what he will do with the people’s money. Cut pork, cuts taxes, and force the federal government to cut the pork and tighten its belt.
Also, I just heard on the radio that Romney spent TEN TIMES as much money as all of the other candidates combined, so I have to conclude that he bought this.
Considering all the bigotry Romney had to overcome, I’d say it was a truly impressive win for him.
Romney forced folks in Massachusetts to buy health insurance, and that costs mega$$.
“However, Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney just a few months ago signed into law the proposal from that state’s Legislature launching a new mandatory universal health insurance program.
That specific program requires all uninsured adults to buy that insurance by July 1, 2007 – and prove it on their income tax returns – or face fines that could range into the thousands of dollars.”
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=53373
btw, it ended up costing the citizens of Massachusetts more money that Romney said it would.
Never mind that your candidate came in 9th place.. Never mind that Ron Paul of all people beat your candidate.. Can I say Sour Grapes????
“Considering all the bigotry Romney had to overcome, I’d say it was a truly impressive win for him.”
I don’t like bigotry, but the reason Romney won is because he spent more than all of the other candidates COMBINED. As I said in a previous post, I just heard that on the radio, and will try to find a link on it.
I call BS. Say Romney matched Forbes at $2 mil. That would mean that the other 10 or so spent $200, 000 or less combined, or an average of $20,000. That clearly isn't so.
Someone just pulled that number out of the air.
Brownback spent 600K
I would guess that media buys are aimed more at the Caucus than the Ames poll. It's the one that really counts, and any organizational and advertising costs have to be seen as primarily going to win that.
Legitimate costs for analysis here should probably only include direct costs for the straw poll: buses, tickets, tents, food, campaign bric a brac, etc. All other more general "image" spending in Iowa would be hard to quantify.
Maybe so. But the fact remains that Fred Thompson (yet undeclared) and Rudy Giuliani didn't even participate and they both came in ahead of Duncan Hunter.
Duncan Hunter is a good man. A good Congressman. But he will never be President.
Bush spent millions. He had more money then all his opponents combined !!!
He’d certainly be a good SecDef
And it comes down to money. Bush won in 2000 because his warchest was larger then his opponents and Romney could likewise do the same thing !!!
I’ve no doubt Romney outspent his opponents in each category, but if we are going to make comparisons, they should be apple to apple. General "Iowa" campaign costs should not be compared against other candidates "Ames Poll" costs.
Forbes outspent Bush in 2000 in Iowa.
Iowa maybe but not through out the primaries. Bush had more dough then all the other candidates including Forbes combined !!!
Romney is running the big frontrunner type campaign in Iowa and New Hampshire, trying to break into South Carolina which is essential to his strategy to build a momentum that Julie and Fred can't stop.
CANDIDATE NAME DIST NET RECEIPTS NET DISB CASH DEBT THROUGH HUCKABEE, MIKE PRES $1,310,752 $873,583 $437,169 $31,044 06/30/2007
Brownback spent big, trying to change his luck. I don't see how he could even have $200,000 now unless he found some new campaign funds.
CANDIDATE NAME DIST NET RECEIPTS NET DISB CASH DEBT THROUGH BROWNBACK, SAMUEL DALE PRES $3,321,964 $2,861,727 $460,236 $0 06/30/2007
In general, 2nd tier candidates are doing one of three things: pushing a pet issue onto the national stage, trolling for VP, or positioning for 2012.
One candidate, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, has assembled an unrivaled operation for the event: a statewide corps of 60 “super-volunteers,” who have been paid between $500 and $1,000 per month to talk him up; a fleet of buses; more than $2 million in television ads in Iowa; a sleek direct-mail campaign; and a consultant who has been paid nearly $200,000 to direct Romney’s straw poll production, which will include barbecue billed as the best in the state.
snip
Romney, a former venture capitalist and multimillionaire who has lent his campaign $9 million of his own money, has hired buses to travel the state, picking up supporters. It will cost his campaign hundreds of thousands of dollars to pay the entry fee when they arrive. Romney snared the prime spot for his tent — space at the event is auctioned off by the state GOP — reportedly by bidding $10,000 more than rivals.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/08/09/AR2007080902379.html?hpid=topnews
Can you say thank you Duncan Hunter for working on Iraq issues to protect my butt while the other candidates were campaigning?
As I’ve said before: Hunter didn’t expect to do well in this straw poll. He was busy doing the people’s business (Iraq issues), and wasn’t able to go to Iowa until just before the debate last Sunday.
Hunter has won straw polls in the past, or came in top 3, when he had more time to campaign, and wasn’t busy protecting your butt.
“Bush spent millions. He had more money then all his opponents combined !!!”
link?
I happen to know you are wrong, but I’ll let you hang yourself first.
Let me know when you find the LINK to back up your statement. hee hee
It’s too early to give up on the best person - waaaaay too early.
The majority of people aren’t even paying attention yet.
I’m getting really tired of folks equating spending money on political campaigns with success. It doesn’t matter a hill of beans if you spend a billion dollars putting forth a message that the public rejects.
The Dems keep complaining that they’re unable to get the word out about their failed presidential candidates. I disagree. Their failure is directly tied to the fact that their message IS getting out. It’s simply being rejected.
As for Mitt, his spots are simply brilliant. They’re extended sixty second sound bites from campaign speeches. He’s a great speaker. The messages he’s focused on so far are very Reaganesque - smaller government, lower taxes, border security.
To say he bought these results ignores the fact that he’s communicated his positions very effectively. He may be outspending his opponents, but more importantly he’s outmarketing them as well.
Great post.. I also think the odds for a moderate conservative are very difficult in Ames. Lets face it normal voters don’t attend straw polls for a party. These are the political junkies and for republicans are far to the right of the average republican voter.
Rudy, McCain and Thompson were too scared to go because of this. Yet Romney showed up and fought hard, and used his advantages like organizational ability to win. And won the vote amongst grassroots conservative voters.
The people that nominate the candidate are.
Doesn't it.
Two observations:
(1) The Ames straw poll was a failure as an event: they had a turnout of less than a third of the event's peak - and in a hotly contested nomination race to boot.
(2) Ron Paul's people had suggested that they might have 5,000 votes (which would have won the poll) and threw out 2,000 votes as the threshhold number where they would consider suing Diebold and others for "stealing" the poll from Paul.
Has the Paul campaign decided to sue Diebold now? What about their other threat to sue the Iowa GOP for "imposing a poll tax" by charging $35 admission?
SC may make or break Thompson, it will definitely make or break McCain and probably break McCain.
“A Democratic source who has tracked Romney’s ad buys said Romney had spent about $2.4 million on TV ads in Iowa, beginning in February and running consistently since May. The source estimated Romney had spent an additional $2.5 million on campaign materials other than television in the state.:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/08/09/AR2007080902379.html?hpid=topnews
My point is that he had to spend millions just to win a straw poll. Again, this isn’t even a primary. You can’t get nominated with a STRAW POLL.
What’s he gonna have to pay to win the primary of each state?
Even Romney can’t keep this kind of spending up.
But I will come clean. The real reason that I am against Romney is because he is a RINO.
A candidate doesn’t get nominated with a straw poll.
Rudy McRomney will turn the Republican Party into a liberal party, ESPECIALLY Rudy.
Most of the so-called dark horse candidates are far more conservative, and I think the voters will see that when they start paying attention.
That's because they are watching Tiger at the PGA championship.
You say Huckabee might drop out. Well, I doubt it. Though not close to his campaign, I have been watching it. When asked about VP possibilities, he is continuing to consider who HE might choose as VP. He has plenty of cash to settle campaign debts; he should get a boost in funding now; his wife is a terrific help to him. His focus is politics rather than preaching, and has been for some time. He was voted the leader of the state Governors in the past, so you might say he is the Governors’ Governor. His weight loss of over 100 pounds is no small feat, and his musical abilities (his own band is called Capital Offense, jokingly because he says they offend practically everyone) are not really legendary but are really good. That band even performed at the FReeper Inaugural Balls. Yeah, I reckon he will stay in.
Brownback is an absolute nazi. His supporters are the nuts that the nuts call nuts.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.