Hurricane Dean approaching the Lesser Antilles

NOAA ^ | 2007-08-12 | (mariner's 1-2-3 rule chart)

[Clive]

This chart will automatically update periodically.

[Caipirabob]

Good morning, Clive.

Thanks for the post. Living here in SoFlo I will most certainly be watching this. We have preset planned schedules on when we pick up last minute "survival" stores such as gas (which we don't keep over 3 months.) We'll do gradual fills of our stores over the next week if this continues to develop.

Yep, this is about the time the real fun gets started, let's pray we're all wasting our time! ; )

Ping and good morning to our SoFlo pals...

[Clive]

Accuweather summary 0445 EDT 2007-08-12:

Watching a Couple of Tropical Waves

By Accuweather.com Meteorologists Alex Sosnowski, Bob Smerbeck and Matt Keefe

At this time, there are no organized features in the Atlantic basin. However, we are watching a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic near the Cape Verde Islands and a couple of tropical waves over the western Caribbean.

Over the course of the next several days, atmospheric conditions should allow the wave in the eastern Atlantic, located roughly along 20 west and south of 20 north and moving to the west at 10-15 knots, to become better organized. This feature could even strengthen into a named storm in a couple of days or so. Most global models have been showing this wave to become a well organized tropical cyclone over the past several days. A ridge of high pressure aloft to the north of this feature should put it on a westerly track, perhaps reaching the Lesser Antilles next Thursday or Friday.

The tropical waves in the western Caribbean are located roughly along 87 west and 79 west and are tracking west at 10-15 knots. They are interacting with an upper-level trough of low pressure between Florida and the Bahamas, and the result is widespread convection from Central America northeast across the western Caribbean into Cuba. The upper trough of low pressure will track westward across the Gulf Sunday and Monday and could move across southern Texas or northeastern Mexico during the day Tuesday. The tropical wave will be trailing behind the upper trough, and it will continue to be ventilated by the upper trough, so numerous showers and thunderstorms should continue. There is some chance of a developing tropical cyclone in the southwest Gulf of Mexico by midweek. There could at least be an increased chance of rain over the lower Rio Grande Valley.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, a tropical wave is found near 32 west and south of 16 north. This wave is moving to the west at 10-15 knots and is causing little in the way of showers and thunderstorms. Another tropical wave can be found near 48 west and south of 15 north. This wave is moving westward at 10-15 knots. This wave is causing showers and thunderstorms along the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Farther west, a tropical wave is found near 71 west and south of 22 north. This wave is moving westward at about 15 knots and is currently producing thunderstorms across the southern Bahamas and northern Columbia.

[WorkerbeeCitizen]

Is this a ping list?

I live on the East central coast of Florida.

[mewzilla]

Speaking of NOAA...

New Scandal Erupts over NOAA Climate Data

[jsh3180]

I saw one hurricane model this morning that has this turning into Hurricane dean and following the path of 1998’s Hurricane Georges. Across the north coast of Puerto Rico and Cuba and then across the Florida Keys and on up to Mobile, Alabama.

I live in the Lower Florida Keys, right where Georges stalled offshore in 1998 and pounded us for 18 hours. Don’t wish to see a repeat of that.

[blam]

"Across the north coast of Puerto Rico and Cuba and then across the Florida Keys and on up to Mobile, Alabama."

Just thanks.

I don't know if a hurricane sounds all that bad at present if it'll disrupt the heat and drought we have presently. It is unbelieveably hot here.

[31M20RedDevil]

Dittos to that from burnt and scorched Tn.

[Clive]

Extract from NOAA Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 22W S OF 19N. A 1006 MB LOW PRES IS NEAR 12N22W OR ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60NM OF 12N24W.

[PeteB570]

And so begins the “Real” Hurricane Season.

[Rb ver. 2.0]

"I can't talk about this right now, it's too exciting,
I'm afraid I'll wet my pants."

[Thermalseeker]

Dittos to that from burnt and scorched Tn.

At least it's dry heat. If the humidity were where it normally is this time of year it would be really miserable. But, with 40% humidity the 95-100F we've seen over the past week here in SE Tennessee hasn't been all that bad. (and I work out in it on my farm every day)

[gulfcoast6]

I guess that Dr. Cullen with the weather channel will give us another lecture on global warming, sheesh.

[Caipirabob]

If he does, he'll only be hurting himself. I think the left has totally blown any credibility they have on this issue. I mean we take hurricanes very seriously down here, very much so and we pay attention to what's going on out in the Atlantic. Yet the last thing you want to start telling a million people going without power, losing roofs and having to rebuild their neighborhoods after a disaster is "This is all your fault!"

We wouldn't take that very well...lol!

"You don't understand! You're getting what you deserve! But fear not, I am your messiah and I am here to save you from yourself!"

Uh, no...

[31M20RedDevil]

Your right about the dry heat,the weather girl this a.m.
called it desert like condition in the Nashville area.

I too am a farmer out in it every day,just came back in after putting out about 500 gals of water on 2 farms for
the cows morning drink.

Been feeding hay I ain`t got for 2 weeks too.

[SilvieWaldorfMD]

SH*T!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I’m going to Puerto Rico from Aug. 14-17... the storm might be reaching the Lesser Antilles by Fri., 8/17, which means that American Airlines might cancel my return flight to Baltimore... AAARRRRRRGGGHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[SilvieWaldorfMD]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/avn-l.jpg

WIDE ATLANTIC INFRARED LOOP - NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SITE.

[jsh3180]

Here's where they show it 10 days out. Right here in the Fla Keys.!!

[Thermalseeker]

Been feeding hay I ain`t got for 2 weeks too.

Yeah, I hear ya! I'm situated next to the Sequatchie River and even with the drought we usually get 3 hay cuttings. I had a guy call yesterday wanting all they hay I could cut, even the weedy crap in the fields I don't normally cut and bale.

It's going to be a long, lean winter in these parts for folks with livestock.....

[Elle Bee]

it's all about the wind and the water temperature from now till December

the good news is that the poinsettia (sp?) trees which are supposedly harbinger of the seasons intensity are not very fiery here in Key West

and these days I have as much (if not more)faith in folklore as I do in the politically agenda-ed NOAA and the weather service

.

[Ditter]

We live in Houston, no danger from the storm surge and I have no problem with staying here during a hurricane, even a direct hit on Galveston/Houston. It is the aftermath that I can’t stand, specifically the week or so without electricity and A/C. It has been over 20 years since that happened here and the heat and humidity almost killed me. We couldn’t even buy and ice cube. I am too old for that again, we’ll ride the storm out and take a trip to someplace with A/C. (I know I’m a weenie, you don’t need to remind me)

[PeteB570]

I’m in the Cape Fear region of the Carolinas. The big ones seem to smack us around mid-September.

I’ll test crank the 5kw generator, check over the emergency supplies and clean out the pine straw from the gutters next weekend.

That’s good for the long run. If one looks like it’s a couple of days out I’ll fill all the gas containers and top off the vehicles. I’m usually a good 24 hours ahead of the last minute store stampeders in getting my perishables

[Caipirabob]

Well here's to hoping that the big ones wither and move on out to sea before they hit...for all our sakes.

In 2003, 2004 and 2005 with Wilma, we experienced power outages from 4 days, to 9 days to 11 days with Wilma, the last big one to hit us. We had been blessed to be able to prepare so well, most everyone in the neighborhood had generators and portable A/C units. We spent the week repairing our neighbor's roofs and clearing trees from yards.

Sure don't feel the need to repeat any of that, but we should be more ready than ever if another one hits. Can't blame you for a second, either! Sign me up for the "weenie" club, I can be the "moral officer" like after Wilma, where we passed out all of our cold beer so we could make room for important food in the working fridge...lol!

[Ditter]

We live in a heavily wooded area (lots of trees down in any kind of storm) in the center of Houston and our power loop is small, so we are always last to have our power restored. The power company told me they take care of the most first and the least last. That’s us, the least. ~sigh~

[LadyPilgrim]

Afternoon...on this wonderful Lord’s Day! ;-)

We’re south of Bham and would appreciate some of that wet stuff coming our way also.
I pray for no wind.....but the rain we need desperately!

[eastforker]

We were without power for a day last week when one of the power lines fried in two pieces. Got the generator out and fired her up to power a window unit and the fridge. Probably need to stock up on about 50 gallons of gas just in case.

[PeteB570]

And if the generator isn’t needed you and put some oil in the gas, put the mixture in the boat and go out and catch some more fish.

Loved your home profile page pictures. So, are the big ones as good to eat as the little ones?

[eastforker]

So, are the big ones as good to eat as the little ones?...............They sure are, just ask some of the HAT chapter members that attended this springs annual Texas Cowboy memorial shoot.

[Clive]

Extract from NOAA Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC ...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1008 MB LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE...IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 150 NM SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 12.5N25W. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE E OF A CONVECTIVE MASS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 25W-30W. OVERALL...THIS SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT 15-20 KT.

[Recovering_Democrat]

Weather Underground Models for this system:

[Guenevere]

If this is a ping list, put me on!

[Clive]

Accuweather update 1945 EDT 2007-08-12:

Trouble Brewing in the Eastern Atlantic

By Accuweather.com Meteorologist Josh Nagelberg

A tropical wave, which emerged from the African Coast on Friday, is showing signs of life with a weak circulation center forming during the day Sunday. The low pressure center is located about 150 miles south of the southern Cape Verde Islands, near 12 north and 25 west, and is moving to the west at about 15 knots. Atmospheric conditions are favorable for this system to develop further, and it may become the first Cape Verde storm of the 2007 Atlantic season over the next few days. Several global models have been showing this wave to become a well-organized tropical cyclone, perhaps even a hurricane, over the coming week. A large region of high pressure aloft to its north put it on a westerly track, perhaps reaching the Lesser Antilles Thursday or Friday. After that, there is some uncertainty as to where the system, if it develops, may end up, but if you're in the Caribbean, on the Gulf Coast, or even on the Southeast Coast, you should pay attention to this system.

Much of the western Caribbean Sea is unsettled at this time. A tropical wave is found near 87 west, as well as another wave around 77 west. These two waves are interacting with an upper-level trough of low pressure located over the far southeastern Gulf, just west of the Florida Keys. The result of these features are scattered thunderstorms from South Florida, the Bahamas, and western Cuba into Central America. The upper trough of low pressure will track westward into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Monday and will move into northern Mexico by Tuesday night or Wednesday. The tropical wave will be trailing behind the upper trough, and it will continue to be ventilated by the upper trough, so numerous showers and thunderstorms should continue. There is a small chance of a developing tropical cyclone in the southwest Gulf of Mexico by midweek. There could at least be an increased chance of rain over deep South Texas by then.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, a tropical wave is found near 36 west and south of 14 north. This wave is moving to the west at 10-15 knots and is causing little in the way of showers and thunderstorms. Another tropical wave can be found near 43 west and south of 14 north. This wave is moving westward at 10-15 knots. This wave is causing showers and thunderstorms along the Intertropical Convergence Zone.

[Caipirabob]

Wow, then prudence dictates we at least start on some of the perishables tomorrow. I'll probably start by filling up some of the spare gas cans. Don't want to get caught in the huge lines that build up a day or so out now.

Thanks, I'll be posting the plot at work for the guys to see. Usually the first one of us to hear a hint of this will do that. We also need to prep our HA systems for transfer. Going to be a fun week!

[SilvieWaldorfMD]

Thanks for the info and the ping, Clive... I’ll see if I can send more info when I’m in Puerto Rico, starting tomorrow through Friday.

[SilvieWaldorfMD]

Thanks for the WU model.

On what day do you see this thing hovering over or around Puerto Rico?

[spotbust1]

ping to check back later and see how accurate NOAA isn’t on their prediction.

[Guenevere]

Thanks

[Clive]

See my the Accuweather summary in my Reply 32 which forecasts it to cross the Lesser Antilles on or about Friday.

[SilvieWaldorfMD]

There’s going to be a mad rush of passengers leaving the smaller Lesser Antilles (Barbados, St. Lucia, etc.) into San Juan (the American Airlines Caribbean hub) in order to return to the mainland U.S. on Friday if or when it develops into a TS... UGH!... it’s going to be worse than rounding cattle at the SJ airport...

[Clive]

This potential tropical cyclone has now become Tropical Depression Four.

I have asked the moderator to change the title of the thread accordingly.

[Clive]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 1:

000
WTNT34 KNHC 131454
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 13 2007

...FOURTH DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.6 WEST OR ABOUT 520 MILES...840 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND ABOUT 2000 MILES...3220 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...12.0 N...31.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Joe Brower]

Florida Freeper

Sorry to have been out of touch of late -- just bought a new house and am in the process of moving...

[italianquaker]

Hi, where is the link for that model. Thnx

[lainie]

I was just looking at the same image. A commenter in south FL said TD4 is the lead news story there.

[lainie]

Congrats, Joe. ltns

[brytlea]

Great. School starts this week. I’m just a little too busy to have a hurricane!
susie

[WorkerbeeCitizen]

Thanks for the ping.

[Happy Valley Dude]

[PeteB570]

Not to wish harm on anybody here but....

We in the S/E US would probably like the critter to beat itself half to death on Dom Rep and Cuba and then sweep up the eastern seaboard as a tropical low dropping a bunch of rain - but not too much wind.

Grass here in the Carolinas is getting a bit pale green and crunchy.

[tutstar]

nautinurse handles the tropical storm/hurricane ping list