Posted on 08/15/2007 6:24:50 PM PDT by Plutarch
On the Republican side Fred Thompson is leading the race with 22%, followed by Rudy Giuliani (18%), Mitt Romney (17%), John McCain (11%) and Mike Huckabee (7%). Thompson’s lead has shrunk in the last two months. In June he led the next closest candidate by eleven percent, and overall his percentage has fallen five percent. In those two months Giuliani has seen his support increase by four percent, McCain’s has dropped four percent, and Huckabee’s rose four percent...
(Excerpt) Read more at publicpolicypolling.com ...
Big SC Bump For Romney [Rich Lowry]
This just came across my desk.
Poll Watch: PPP SC GOP Primary
Public Policy Polling Republican South Carolina Primary
Thompson - 22%
Giuliani - 18%
Romney - 17%
McCain - 11%
Huckabee - 7%
Brownback - 3%
Paul - 2%
Survey was done August 13 of 749 likely primary voters, and has an MoE of 3.6%.
I can’t vouch for the methods and accuracy of the poll, but it seems South Carlolinians didn’t realize they weren’t supposed to pay any attention to Iowa Straw Poll headlines. Also, Romney was ticking up a bit nationally prior to the straw poll.
I thought the Gamecocks wouldn’t support a (gasp) Mormon?
58% of the Gamecocks think a Mormon is fair game for the Presidency.
And the plot thickens...
Actually, it could be even higher. A lot of people answer that kind of question thinking "well, I might by my neighbor won't...."
yeah, but they won’t go for a Liberal flip-flopper..
Thompson will drop out before he even gets in. What a nothing.
Thompson is doomed....
Ping!
Mitt is gaining in South Carolina....
I hear this place has September specials. Could be good timing, you may want to make an order for those restless nights that will come...
I hear this place has September specials. Could be good timing, you may want to make an order for those restless nights that will come...
Well, is he getting in this race or not ?
He said July and now he says September and people are losing interest in him, even in his native South. He’s as phony as a two dollar bill, open your eyes.
See you in September...
Also, the oldest subgroup was the least prejudiced and biased against a Mormon candidate. I guess with age comes wisdom. A little bit less of "Jesus loves me and hates thee" and a little bit more judging a person by the life he leads and virtues he embodies.
Thanks, that saves me a lot of effort...
Now can you tell me whom to hang my hat with?
Oh, I forgot, you don’t like anybody...
Ooooo, his team is amassing, sounds downright formidable. But wait, that's not all. FDT is getting his act together. Do you think that America is seeking a President in 2008, who in August 2007, is getting his act together?
“I'm taking the time that I've got allotted to me to get my team together, to get my act together.’
Uh, Fred, the Constitution has had the 2008 election scheduled for over 200 years. It isn't like it is a surprise or anything. Why do you need spend August 2007 getting your act together? Were you taken unawares?
Rudy Giuliani receives support from 18% of women and 19% of men. Mitt Romney receives support from 19% of women and 15% of men. Fred Thompson receives support from only 14% of women and 29% of men. Twenty-four percent of women are undecided while only 11% of men are undecided. If the undecided vote breaks similarly to the decided vote by sex, Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani will pick up more votes from undecided voters than Fred Thompson will. Personally, I don't believe that this vote will break as the decided vote has broken. I think that the Giuliani vote has mostly peaked. Mitt Romney should get some support from the undecided voters, and his good standing with the women voters will help him. Fred Thompson will get support, but some of it will go to the less popular candidates.
In party affiliation, Rudy Giuliani gets 18% Democrat, 19% Republican, and 15% other. Mitt Romney gets 11% Democrat, 19% Republican, and 3% other. Fred Thompson gets 15% Democrat, 20% Republican, and 29% other. The undecided voters are 32% Democrat, 17% Republican, and 25% other. This crosstab says good and bad for Fred Thompson. First, the poll suggests that he's going to be strong at getting independent votes in South Carolina, but South Carolina is a very conservative state. The negative thing for Fred Thompson is that when we eliminate the Democrats and "Other" who may not vote in a Republican primary, he leads only 20% to 19% for both Giuliani and Romney. In Mr. Thompson's favor is the fact that John McCain is getting 12% of Republican vote, and many of them will jump to Fred Thompson.
Looking at age, Mitt Romney is doing the best (of the big 3) among voters older than 65 (22% versus 20% RG and 19% FT) but is doing the worst among voters 46 to 65 (15% versus 19% RG and 23% FT). Mitt Romney is doing best among young voters (under 30), but these voters don't vote as consistently as the older folks.
A problem for Mitt Romney is that he doesn't win in any area code. If I remember correctly, South Carolina apportions delegates based on the winner of each Congressional district. If Mr. Romney doesn't win any district, he won't get any delegates.
This poll is interesting. Thanks for posting it.
Bill
Go Mitt! I can just see those red foam Mitt ‘08 “mitts” waving in the convention hall!
One, do I want a President who uses some old idiom or displays a bit of humor in informal discussions...
Second, in all honesty, I am beginning to think the only people who should even consider running for President are those who decided to do so within the first hour of their conception in the womb and declare their candidacy no later than the 3rd trimester...
I see the light now, I need to rethink this whole thing...
Thanks...
Your analysis is interesting, thanks for posting it.
I don't see where McCain's diminishing band of supporters goes to any candidate in particular. These are likely oblivious legacy supporters, who Press 5 for McCain only because they are proud to recognize one of the names. When McCain departs, they will, like thistles, drift wherever the wind blows.
Rich Lowry has a stiffy for Romney, and for the life of me, I can’t understand why. I can understand Kathryn Jean-Lopez’s girl-crush on Marvelous Mitt, but Lowry?
An undeclared candidate leads all others by at least 5 points, and Rich made it out to be a huge surge for Romney. Go figure.
Romney is a machine. He just showed up in South Carolina recently and already his support is ratcheting upwards, and closing in on the lead.
One of Romney’s campaign people had a point that seems to be true on a video a month or more back. He said whenver they get Romney in front of people, in person or even on tv, people like him. People just like the guy, and see that he is smart as a whip and has lots of leadership success.
By the way...what do the Paulistinians have to say about the 2% the good doctor pulled down? So much for the netroots thing.
I am hoping McCain stays in the race, so he and Guiliani split the name recognition vote. The rubes who go ‘OHH I know that guy, checkmark beside his name.”
“He said July and now he says September and people are losing interest in him, even in his native South. He’s as phony as a two dollar bill, open your eyes.”
He hasn’t even officially declared and he’s beating the other candidates. He’s had a great plan thus far, and unless we find out he’s gay or something, he’ll have the nomination locked up in 8 months.
“Do you think that America is seeking a President in 2008, who in August 2007, is getting his act together?”
American never wanted the campaigns to begin this early in the first place. The current crop on both sides all reek more of ambition than competence. Thompson has been smart by being the “un-candidate” in the meantime, and the polls show it. I suspect you’re more pissed about your chosen candidate losing than Thompson waiting to declare.
I hope that you are right. I based my prediction on the fact that Fred Thompson and John McCain were close when they were in the senate together. Fred Thompson was a supporter of campaign finance reform and often voted with John McCain. I don't doubt that some of Mr. McCain's voters in this poll are people just glad to recognize a name, but some are leftovers from his past runs. Many of these leftovers would gravitate towards someone who had been a friend of Mr. McCain in the past. Another possibility is that Mr. McCain may endorse Fred Thompson if he quits before the South Carolina primary.
Some of the McCain supporters may be just party loyalists who support whichever candidate has the best claim to it being "his turn" to run. No one had any enthusiasm for Bob Dole in 1996, but he did well in South Carolina because many of the stalwarts felt that it was "his turn" to have the nomination. If John McCain is effectively out of the race by December, I don't know where these people will turn. John McCain is the only candidate who can make a strong "it's my turn" argument this time.
Bill
If Fred doesn’t hurry up and get in the race..........AAAHHHHHHGGGGGG!!!! He’s causing me as much stress as the 2000 vote recount in Florida.
No he's not. FDT is now third, behind Romney, at Intrade.
He’s had a great plan thus far...
The plan is so great, that FDT has dropped nine points at Intrade in the last nine days.
The pulse of things in my part of the country is this: The longer Fred delays getting into the race the more folks there are that are drifting over to Romney.
I’m going to give Fred until Labor Day weekend and then I’m moving on. Some of us have a life.
“No he’s not. FDT is now third, behind Romney, at Intrade.”
Ooooo K. You go ahead and rely on a glorified gambling website. I’ll stick to polls that ask actual voters what they think.
Any day now Fred is going to enter the race. Yessir, Fred is coming in soon. You’ll see. His opening campaign speech is just around the corner. *twitches and sweats nervously and wipes brow*
When FDT was in the lead at Intrade ( Fred Takes Lead on InTrade! ), that site was an Oracle of Truth. Now that Fred's lassitude and procrastination has him down in third place, Intrade is a glorified gambling website.
The lastest National ARG Poll has Romney tied with Thompson at 16%. Before the cock crows, you'll probably be dismissing polls as well.
Also, as for Thompson, I think that as people see more of him, his numbers will drop. I know that's what happened to me. I was initially very enthusiastic about a Thompson run and supported it. But, the more I saw and heard him, the less I liked him. And I can't put my finger on what it was that turned me off.
Half of me is saying enough already and declare your candidacy. The other half reminds me it is still very early.
Time will tell whether or not he played this right. Romney is building a pretty strong base here so he better not wait too much longer.
He has not campaigned and we have no idea what his official platform is, or how he can handle himself in a national debate.
Any support for him to date is then akin to standing in wet cement, too easy to change at this point.
I guess what I am getting at is a non candidate is included in polls where another candidate might get traction or distance himself from the pack if those % points were divided among the declared candidates. It smells to me like someone picking our candidate for us.
Its quite simple, keep him out of polls until he declares. Hell they had Gingrich and Thompson in some polls taking 25% of the votes away from declared candidates.
i don't see McCain dropping out unless Fred offers the Sec Def job to him. Maybe Fred will drop out and throw support behind McCain. LOL. What would everyone do then?
We have more than enough time even if he were to start at Christmas to assess the rest. The biggest out standings would be his debate skills and exact positions on a few more key issues.
Supporting anyone is is easy to change at this point, ask Thommy Thompson's folks, which leads back to the additional point of, what’s the rush...
He’s getting in, the delays were for legitimate legal and organizational reasons. Many of us have done the research on the man and like what we see. I think that is a fair deal right there.
It's a surge for Mitt
I would love to see floor fights, and all the wheeling and dealing. That's why I'll be voting for B. Hussein Obama in the Tennessee primary, if Fred Thompson gets in.
I am not putting him down, just pointing out that until he is in the spotlight of presenting his platform, debating his positions, etc. then we really can’t count on that support being solid at this time.
It is early yet, but I think he is letting Romney work out his kinks early on, and build a very strong and steady support base. Romney is being beat on (as is every other declared candidate) and is weathering the storm. Tough to take that away, no matter if Thompson comes on the scene in a shock and awe fashion.
If Thompson drops out, and his supporters drift over to Hunter along with the undecideds.... Landslide!
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South Carolina Ping