Big SC Bump For Romney [Rich Lowry]
This just came across my desk.
Poll Watch: PPP SC GOP Primary
Public Policy Polling Republican South Carolina Primary
Thompson - 22%
Giuliani - 18%
Romney - 17%
McCain - 11%
Huckabee - 7%
Brownback - 3%
Paul - 2%
Survey was done August 13 of 749 likely primary voters, and has an MoE of 3.6%.
I cant vouch for the methods and accuracy of the poll, but it seems South Carlolinians didnt realize they werent supposed to pay any attention to Iowa Straw Poll headlines. Also, Romney was ticking up a bit nationally prior to the straw poll.
I thought the Gamecocks wouldn’t support a (gasp) Mormon?
And the plot thickens...
Thompson will drop out before he even gets in. What a nothing.
Thompson is doomed....
Mitt is gaining in South Carolina....
Also, the oldest subgroup was the least prejudiced and biased against a Mormon candidate. I guess with age comes wisdom. A little bit less of "Jesus loves me and hates thee" and a little bit more judging a person by the life he leads and virtues he embodies.
Rudy Giuliani receives support from 18% of women and 19% of men. Mitt Romney receives support from 19% of women and 15% of men. Fred Thompson receives support from only 14% of women and 29% of men. Twenty-four percent of women are undecided while only 11% of men are undecided. If the undecided vote breaks similarly to the decided vote by sex, Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani will pick up more votes from undecided voters than Fred Thompson will. Personally, I don't believe that this vote will break as the decided vote has broken. I think that the Giuliani vote has mostly peaked. Mitt Romney should get some support from the undecided voters, and his good standing with the women voters will help him. Fred Thompson will get support, but some of it will go to the less popular candidates.
In party affiliation, Rudy Giuliani gets 18% Democrat, 19% Republican, and 15% other. Mitt Romney gets 11% Democrat, 19% Republican, and 3% other. Fred Thompson gets 15% Democrat, 20% Republican, and 29% other. The undecided voters are 32% Democrat, 17% Republican, and 25% other. This crosstab says good and bad for Fred Thompson. First, the poll suggests that he's going to be strong at getting independent votes in South Carolina, but South Carolina is a very conservative state. The negative thing for Fred Thompson is that when we eliminate the Democrats and "Other" who may not vote in a Republican primary, he leads only 20% to 19% for both Giuliani and Romney. In Mr. Thompson's favor is the fact that John McCain is getting 12% of Republican vote, and many of them will jump to Fred Thompson.
Looking at age, Mitt Romney is doing the best (of the big 3) among voters older than 65 (22% versus 20% RG and 19% FT) but is doing the worst among voters 46 to 65 (15% versus 19% RG and 23% FT). Mitt Romney is doing best among young voters (under 30), but these voters don't vote as consistently as the older folks.
A problem for Mitt Romney is that he doesn't win in any area code. If I remember correctly, South Carolina apportions delegates based on the winner of each Congressional district. If Mr. Romney doesn't win any district, he won't get any delegates.
This poll is interesting. Thanks for posting it.
Go Mitt! I can just see those red foam Mitt ‘08 “mitts” waving in the convention hall!
Rich Lowry has a stiffy for Romney, and for the life of me, I can’t understand why. I can understand Kathryn Jean-Lopez’s girl-crush on Marvelous Mitt, but Lowry?
An undeclared candidate leads all others by at least 5 points, and Rich made it out to be a huge surge for Romney. Go figure.
Romney is a machine. He just showed up in South Carolina recently and already his support is ratcheting upwards, and closing in on the lead.
One of Romney’s campaign people had a point that seems to be true on a video a month or more back. He said whenver they get Romney in front of people, in person or even on tv, people like him. People just like the guy, and see that he is smart as a whip and has lots of leadership success.
By the way...what do the Paulistinians have to say about the 2% the good doctor pulled down? So much for the netroots thing.
If Fred doesn’t hurry up and get in the race..........AAAHHHHHHGGGGGG!!!! He’s causing me as much stress as the 2000 vote recount in Florida.
Also, as for Thompson, I think that as people see more of him, his numbers will drop. I know that's what happened to me. I was initially very enthusiastic about a Thompson run and supported it. But, the more I saw and heard him, the less I liked him. And I can't put my finger on what it was that turned me off.
It's a surge for Mitt
I just don’t see how these results jibe with the chart shown here: