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From Rich Lowry on The Corner at NRO :

Big SC Bump For Romney   [Rich Lowry]

This just came across my desk.

Poll Watch: PPP SC GOP Primary

Public Policy Polling Republican South Carolina Primary
Thompson - 22%
 Giuliani - 18%
 Romney - 17%
 McCain - 11%
 Huckabee - 7%
 Brownback - 3%
 Paul - 2%
Survey was done August 13 of 749 likely primary voters, and has an MoE of 3.6%.

I can’t vouch for the methods and accuracy of the poll, but it seems South Carlolinians didn’t realize they weren’t supposed to pay any attention to Iowa Straw Poll headlines. Also, Romney was ticking up a bit nationally prior to the straw poll.

1 posted on 08/15/2007 6:24:51 PM PDT by Plutarch
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To: Plutarch

I thought the Gamecocks wouldn’t support a (gasp) Mormon?


2 posted on 08/15/2007 6:26:19 PM PDT by NeoCaveman ("I mean, he's gone from Jane Fonda to Dr. Strangelove in one week." - Romney on B. Hussein Obama)
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To: Plutarch

And the plot thickens...


4 posted on 08/15/2007 6:31:47 PM PDT by CheyennePress
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To: Plutarch

Thompson will drop out before he even gets in. What a nothing.


7 posted on 08/15/2007 7:24:45 PM PDT by Nonstatist
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To: Plutarch
So Fred, who has yet to declare, who has a lead over guys that have been at it for months, is starting to slide with out campaigning officially yet, against guys who have been campaigning, and spending the requisite amount of cash to do so, again over the past few months.

Thompson is doomed....

8 posted on 08/15/2007 7:36:54 PM PDT by ejonesie22 (Vote for the man who will keep those Barbary Pirates at bay, RON PAUL 1816!)
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To: Austin1; bcbuster; beaversmom; bethtopaz; BlueAngel; Bluestateredman; borntoraisehogs; Bosco; ...

Ping!

Mitt is gaining in South Carolina....


9 posted on 08/15/2007 7:39:02 PM PDT by Canticle_of_Deborah (Catholic4Mitt)
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To: Plutarch; Reaganesque; Saundra Duffy
Interesting. Among the SC women who were polled, Romney leads ALL the other Republican candidates--including Thompson.

Also, the oldest subgroup was the least prejudiced and biased against a Mormon candidate. I guess with age comes wisdom. A little bit less of "Jesus loves me and hates thee" and a little bit more judging a person by the life he leads and virtues he embodies.

15 posted on 08/15/2007 8:24:30 PM PDT by JCEccles
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To: Plutarch
The crosstabs on this poll are interesting.

Rudy Giuliani receives support from 18% of women and 19% of men. Mitt Romney receives support from 19% of women and 15% of men. Fred Thompson receives support from only 14% of women and 29% of men. Twenty-four percent of women are undecided while only 11% of men are undecided. If the undecided vote breaks similarly to the decided vote by sex, Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani will pick up more votes from undecided voters than Fred Thompson will. Personally, I don't believe that this vote will break as the decided vote has broken. I think that the Giuliani vote has mostly peaked. Mitt Romney should get some support from the undecided voters, and his good standing with the women voters will help him. Fred Thompson will get support, but some of it will go to the less popular candidates.

In party affiliation, Rudy Giuliani gets 18% Democrat, 19% Republican, and 15% other. Mitt Romney gets 11% Democrat, 19% Republican, and 3% other. Fred Thompson gets 15% Democrat, 20% Republican, and 29% other. The undecided voters are 32% Democrat, 17% Republican, and 25% other. This crosstab says good and bad for Fred Thompson. First, the poll suggests that he's going to be strong at getting independent votes in South Carolina, but South Carolina is a very conservative state. The negative thing for Fred Thompson is that when we eliminate the Democrats and "Other" who may not vote in a Republican primary, he leads only 20% to 19% for both Giuliani and Romney. In Mr. Thompson's favor is the fact that John McCain is getting 12% of Republican vote, and many of them will jump to Fred Thompson.

Looking at age, Mitt Romney is doing the best (of the big 3) among voters older than 65 (22% versus 20% RG and 19% FT) but is doing the worst among voters 46 to 65 (15% versus 19% RG and 23% FT). Mitt Romney is doing best among young voters (under 30), but these voters don't vote as consistently as the older folks.

A problem for Mitt Romney is that he doesn't win in any area code. If I remember correctly, South Carolina apportions delegates based on the winner of each Congressional district. If Mr. Romney doesn't win any district, he won't get any delegates.

This poll is interesting. Thanks for posting it.

Bill

18 posted on 08/15/2007 8:36:22 PM PDT by WFTR (Liberty isn't for cowards)
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To: Plutarch

Go Mitt! I can just see those red foam Mitt ‘08 “mitts” waving in the convention hall!


19 posted on 08/15/2007 8:40:12 PM PDT by asparagus
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To: Plutarch

Rich Lowry has a stiffy for Romney, and for the life of me, I can’t understand why. I can understand Kathryn Jean-Lopez’s girl-crush on Marvelous Mitt, but Lowry?

An undeclared candidate leads all others by at least 5 points, and Rich made it out to be a huge surge for Romney. Go figure.


22 posted on 08/15/2007 8:52:29 PM PDT by DesScorp
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To: Plutarch

Romney is a machine. He just showed up in South Carolina recently and already his support is ratcheting upwards, and closing in on the lead.

One of Romney’s campaign people had a point that seems to be true on a video a month or more back. He said whenver they get Romney in front of people, in person or even on tv, people like him. People just like the guy, and see that he is smart as a whip and has lots of leadership success.


23 posted on 08/15/2007 8:52:46 PM PDT by ran20
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To: Plutarch

By the way...what do the Paulistinians have to say about the 2% the good doctor pulled down? So much for the netroots thing.


24 posted on 08/15/2007 8:53:29 PM PDT by DesScorp
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To: Plutarch


Excellent!

26 posted on 08/15/2007 8:56:14 PM PDT by Reaganesque (Romney for President 2008)
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To: Plutarch

If Fred doesn’t hurry up and get in the race..........AAAHHHHHHGGGGGG!!!! He’s causing me as much stress as the 2000 vote recount in Florida.


30 posted on 08/15/2007 9:08:56 PM PDT by no dems (Dear God, how long are you going to let Ted Kennedy, Robert Byrd and John Conyers live?)
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To: Plutarch; 2A Patriot; 2nd amendment mama; 4everontheRight; 77Jimmy; A Strict Constructionist; ...
South Carolina Ping

Add me to the list. / Remove me from the list.
35 posted on 08/15/2007 9:44:06 PM PDT by upchuck (Today there are 10,000 more illegal aliens in yer country than there were yesterday. 10,000! THINK!)
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To: Plutarch
So, of the candidates who are actually running, Romney is basically tied with Giuliani in SC.

Also, as for Thompson, I think that as people see more of him, his numbers will drop. I know that's what happened to me. I was initially very enthusiastic about a Thompson run and supported it. But, the more I saw and heard him, the less I liked him. And I can't put my finger on what it was that turned me off.

39 posted on 08/16/2007 3:16:01 AM PDT by Spiff
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To: Plutarch

It's a surge for Mitt

46 posted on 08/16/2007 6:03:37 AM PDT by yellowhammer
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To: Plutarch

I just don’t see how these results jibe with the chart shown here:

http://www.pollster.com/08-SC-Rep-Pres-Primary.php


51 posted on 08/16/2007 4:30:45 PM PDT by tantiboh
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