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To: Plutarch
The crosstabs on this poll are interesting.

Rudy Giuliani receives support from 18% of women and 19% of men. Mitt Romney receives support from 19% of women and 15% of men. Fred Thompson receives support from only 14% of women and 29% of men. Twenty-four percent of women are undecided while only 11% of men are undecided. If the undecided vote breaks similarly to the decided vote by sex, Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani will pick up more votes from undecided voters than Fred Thompson will. Personally, I don't believe that this vote will break as the decided vote has broken. I think that the Giuliani vote has mostly peaked. Mitt Romney should get some support from the undecided voters, and his good standing with the women voters will help him. Fred Thompson will get support, but some of it will go to the less popular candidates.

In party affiliation, Rudy Giuliani gets 18% Democrat, 19% Republican, and 15% other. Mitt Romney gets 11% Democrat, 19% Republican, and 3% other. Fred Thompson gets 15% Democrat, 20% Republican, and 29% other. The undecided voters are 32% Democrat, 17% Republican, and 25% other. This crosstab says good and bad for Fred Thompson. First, the poll suggests that he's going to be strong at getting independent votes in South Carolina, but South Carolina is a very conservative state. The negative thing for Fred Thompson is that when we eliminate the Democrats and "Other" who may not vote in a Republican primary, he leads only 20% to 19% for both Giuliani and Romney. In Mr. Thompson's favor is the fact that John McCain is getting 12% of Republican vote, and many of them will jump to Fred Thompson.

Looking at age, Mitt Romney is doing the best (of the big 3) among voters older than 65 (22% versus 20% RG and 19% FT) but is doing the worst among voters 46 to 65 (15% versus 19% RG and 23% FT). Mitt Romney is doing best among young voters (under 30), but these voters don't vote as consistently as the older folks.

A problem for Mitt Romney is that he doesn't win in any area code. If I remember correctly, South Carolina apportions delegates based on the winner of each Congressional district. If Mr. Romney doesn't win any district, he won't get any delegates.

This poll is interesting. Thanks for posting it.

Bill

18 posted on 08/15/2007 8:36:22 PM PDT by WFTR (Liberty isn't for cowards)
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To: WFTR
This poll is interesting. Thanks for posting it.

Your analysis is interesting, thanks for posting it.

I don't see where McCain's diminishing band of supporters goes to any candidate in particular. These are likely oblivious legacy supporters, who Press 5 for McCain only because they are proud to recognize one of the names. When McCain departs, they will, like thistles, drift wherever the wind blows.

21 posted on 08/15/2007 8:47:22 PM PDT by Plutarch
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To: WFTR
You seem very informed on this. I have a question about the other side. What are the chances of the Dems having a brokered convention? I believe they apportion their delegates by percentage of votes.

I would love to see floor fights, and all the wheeling and dealing. That's why I'll be voting for B. Hussein Obama in the Tennessee primary, if Fred Thompson gets in.

47 posted on 08/16/2007 6:46:24 AM PDT by Betty Jane
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