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Posted on 08/20/2007 8:12:21 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Extremely dangerous Hurricane Dean is steaming toward the Yucatan Peninsula today, packing winds over 150 mph. The Hurricane Hunter aircraft aborted its mission Monday morning due to equipment problems. The storm is expected to attain catastrophic Category 5 status today. The Cayman Islands have been spared the brunt of the storm's winds as Dean passed 125 miles south of Grand Cayman.
Jamaica continues to assess damage to its infrastructure after Dean uprooted trees, knocked down power lines, stripped off roofs, and dumped up to 20 inches of rain, causing mudslides in the mountains. The government of Jamaica has declared a month-long state of emergency. Haiti has reported four fatalities. The Dominican Republic reported a 20ft storm surge. Martinique lost its banana crops. Additional details are scarce at this point due to extensive power outages.
Alcoa suspended aluminum production in Jamaica. Mexico evacuated thousands of workers from oil platforms. Texas mobilized the National Guard, opened emergency operations centers and moved inmates inland from three prisons in advance of the storm.
Space shuttle Endeavour is returning home Tuesday, a day early due to Hurricane Dean.
In other storm news, the remnants of Tropical Storm Erin caused massive rains and flooding in Oklahoma Sunday. Two people have drowned, and three are reported missing at this time.
Public Advisories Updated every three hours.
Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours
Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 5 day forecast tracks
Buoy Data Western Gulf of Mexico
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Storm Surge graphic
Satellite Images
Cancun Radar Caution- very prone to overload with high traffic
Additional Resources:
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Hurricane Dean Thread II
Hurricane Dean Thread I
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
In the front door.
wonder if texas is still in the path. will it be a CAT 5 when it makes its next landfall?
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 20, 2007
The next reconnaissance flight will be at 18z this afternoon. In the meantime...recent microwave data show a single eyewall that has become better defined with colder tops in conventional satellite imagery over the past couple of hours. The advisory intensity will be held at 130 kt...but latest satellite images indicate that Dean is approaching category five status...and it is expected reach that threshold later today over the deep warm waters of the western Caribbean. Although significant weakening is expected over the Yucatan...Dean should retain hurricane status during The Crossing and a Hurricane Warning is therefore required for the western coast of the Yucatan at this time. Although not explicit in the official forecast below...Dean could reach major hurricane again before its final landfall. The initial motion is 285/18. There has been no significant change to the track forecast reasoning...model guidance...or official forecast. Dean is expected to continue on a track between west and west-northwest over the next two to three days to the south of the westward-building subtropical ridge. The official forecast is very close to the model consensus within a very narrow guidance envelope. Forecast positions and Max winds initial 20/1500z 17.9n 82.4w 130 kt 12hr VT 21/0000z 18.2n 85.1w 140 kt 24hr VT 21/1200z 19.0n 88.6w 100 kt...inland 36hr VT 22/0000z 19.9n 92.2w 80 kt 48hr VT 22/1200z 21.0n 95.5w 95 kt 72hr VT 23/1200z 22.5n 102.0w 35 kt...inland 96hr VT 24/1200z...dissipated $$ forecaster Franklin
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 20, 2007
...Dean could become a category five hurricane later today... At 11 am EDT...1500 UTC...the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the West Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from south of Progresso southward to ciudad del Carmen. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. At 11 am EDT...the government of Belize has extended the Hurricane Warning southward from Belize City to the border with Guatemala. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for all of Belize. At 11 am EDT...the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from north of Cancun to Progresso. At 11 am EDT...the government of Jamaica has replaced the Hurricane Warning for Jamaica with a Tropical Storm Warning. The Tropical Storm Warning will likely be lowered early this afternoon. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from the border with Belize northward to Cancun. A Hurricane Warning also remains in effect for the Cayman Islands. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for portions of eastern Cuba...from the province of Camaguey eastward to the province of Guantanamo. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the following provinces of Cuba...Pinar del Rio...la Habana...Ciego de Avila...Sancti Spiritus... Cienfuegos... Matanzas...and Isla de la Juventud. Interests elsewhere in the western Caribbean and the southern Gulf of Mexico should closely monitor the progress of Dean. For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office. At 1100 am EDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Dean was located near latitude 17.9 north...longitude 82.4 west or about 125 miles... 200 km...southwest of Grand Cayman and about 385 miles...615 km... east of Belize City. Dean is moving toward the west near 21 mph...33 km/hr...and a westward or west-northwestward motion is expected over the next 24 hours. On this track the center of the hurricane is expected to make landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula very early Tuesday morning. However...conditions will begin to deteriorate along the coastline well in advance of the arrival of the center. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph...240 km/hr...with higher gusts. Dean is a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some strengthening is expected later today...and Dean is likely to become a category five hurricane prior to making landfall. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles...95 km...from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles...335 km. Estimated minimum central pressure is 925 mb...27.32 inches. Coastal storm surge flooding of 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...is possible in the Cayman Islands. Storm surge flooding of 12 to 18 feet above normal tide levels is possible near and to the north of where Dean makes landfall along the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Dean is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches over Jamaica with storm total rainfall of up to 20 inches. Storm total amounts of 5 to 10 inches can be expected over the Yucatan Peninsula...Belize...Guatemala...and northern Honduras... with maximum amounts of up to 20 inches. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches are expected over the Cayman Islands and Nicaragua. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Repeating the 1100 am EDT position...17.9 N...82.4 W. Movement toward...west near 21 mph. Maximum sustained winds...150 mph. Minimum central pressure...925 mb. An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 200 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Franklin/Rhome
The media wants it to hit Texas and it wants a CAT 5.
It is not going to hit Texas but they sure don’t say that very often.
I can’t watch Fox or CNN during any hurricane.
Ominous.
http://www.hurricanecancun.com/
Got it. Will be on and off today, that work thing, ya know?
That’s an amazing loop. It looks like a fully formed hurricane over land!
Thanks for posting the link to that site. Good info.
Tulum? That isn’t good. I hope the paramids can withstand the storm.
Yak--I know what you mean.
What happened to the direct hit on Jamaica? Just asking.
Of course, my main prayer is protection of life.
The FOX News babe just said, "Hurricane Dean is headed for Texas."
How is this any different than shouting "Fire" in a theater?
Sound likes they did pretty good...no deaths.
“Jamaica avoided the direct hit when the storm wound up passing to the south Sunday night. There were no deaths reported in Jamaica, but the storm uprooted trees, flooded roads and tore the roofs off many homes, businesses and a prison block. No prisoners escaped.
Police said officers got into a shootout with looters at a shopping center in the central Jamaican parish of Clarendon, but nobody was hurt. Curfews were in effect until Monday evening. Authorities also cut power on the island to prevent damage to the power grid.”
We’ve had quite a bit out of Montego Bay; not as much out of Kingston. Of course, the fact I’m watching the Gorebal Warming Channel skews that a bit as their man Seidel’s there.
I would say that if you don’t evacuate to the mainland the place to be would be inside one of the structures at Tulum, which have persevered through countless hurricanes. I saw a tourism family on the Weather Channel bemoaning their fate and was yelling at the TV, “Why don’t you just rent a car and drive to Merida?” Dummies. Also, Steve Cantore kept referring to the palapas at the GW Marriot beach as “cabanas.” I kept looking for the cabanas, wondering how they could get a cabana on that narrow beach, until I figured out he didn’t know what he was talking about.
Been wondering more about Jamaica too. If you hear anything, please let us know. Been looking at go-jamaica.com. But, am only getting general info.
This thing looks more like it will make landfall in Belize to me, and then head straight across Southern Mexico.
It's just amazing, is it not. Unless something really bizarre happens, this isn't going to do any serious harm, but all I hear is EVACUATION, EVACUATION!!!!
The eyewall skirted the southern tip of Jamaica, passing about 50 miles to the south. The island was pounded by hurricane force winds and 20” of rain in some areas.
Dean took a last-minute wobble left. However, the entire island took hurricane-force winds, and Kingston had a 139-mph gust.
I wonder what that looks like from the space shuttle, it must be both spectacular and horrifying.
What worries me more than the storm is the destructive effect of all the hot air from Geraldo Rivera and Shepherd Smith.
Exactly. Geraldo was on Fox late yesterday having an absolute foaming fit about the floods in OK and WI, and Dean. He was hysterical and should have been nowhere near a TV camera.
It wasn’t a direct hit and it wasn’t a CAT 5.
The media sucks.
http://www.royalresorts.com/webcam.php
“It’s just amazing, is it not. Unless something really bizarre happens, this isn’t going to do any serious harm, but all I hear is EVACUATION, EVACUATION!!!!”
Maybe not in Texas. But elsewhere it almsot certainly will.
Line of the day.
Next landfall winds will be around 110 mph
That was some drama!
Shep Smith: “There are dead babies here. That is a fact.”
Later proven to not be a fact...
Yes, of course. I should have been more clear. I was listening to Patty Ann Brown talking to John Cornyn and the focus was strictly on Texas which, as of now, does not look like it is any great danger.
“It wasn’t a direct hit and it wasn’t a CAT 5.
The media sucks.”
Everything I read said it would be cat 4 at Jamaica, not cat 5. And that’s what it was as it passed just south after a last-minute wobble. Neither the Hurricane Center nor the media can predict a wobble (still has some cat 4 winds). Are you saying you would have been happier if it HAD been a cat 5 direct hit? Or should the media have played it down like it was a mild thunderstorm? Of course if they had done that and it had been a direct hit, you would now be jumping all over them not warning people.
Very impressive.
No I prefer just the facts. But they hype it up so, talking about a CAT 5 when it actually was already down to a CAT 4, CAT 5 hurricanes rarely hit land. Andrew and Gilbert were the last two. When’s the last time you heard that on the news?
I don’t like hype, getting people all scared unnecessarily. Facts should be reported, not wishes.
Fox is all about Dean hitting Texas, but if you read up on it you will see that the odds of that are very low.
They made a big deal on last nights news that a Red Cross group out of Seattle is preparing to fly to Texas to be there when this thing hits. I hope they remember to bring their golf clubs, swim trunks and flippers and a “things to do on South Padre Island” brochure, because they are going to be there awhile.
Thanks , So Much for all your hard work you do with your Hurricane Threads ! I Really Appreciate the help & you do for all Freepers :)
“Next landfall winds will be around 110 mph”
Where did you see that? The forecast I’m seeing is that it will strengthen to cat 5 before hitting Yucatan and will remain hurricane strength all the way across the peninsula.
Correction : I Really Appreciate the help that YOU Do for your fellow Freepers reading these threads :)
i can’t watch anything cause mom doesn’t have cable! internet is my soul info source.
Hurricane Dean Public Advisory Number 30 A1
Statement as of 11:45 am EDT on August 20, 2007
...Dean could become a category five hurricane later today...
At 11 am EDT...1500 UTC...the government of Mexico has blamed George Bush and issued a Hurricane Warning for the West Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from south of Progresso southward to ciudad del Carmen.
Placing the blame on George Bush means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours and it is all his fault. Preparations to loot and pillage property should be rushed to completion.
At 11 am EDT...the government of Belize has blamed Bush and extended the Hurricane Warning southward from Belize City to the border with Guatemala. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for all of Belize. Belize and other third world countries will see reparations from the United States because of failed environmental policies. Newsweek said so.
At 11 am EDT...the government of Mexico has issued that the country will be chocolate by the end of the day.
At 11 am EDT...the government of Jamaica has replaced the Hurricane
Warning for Jamaica with a Tropical Storm Warning. The Tropical
Storm Warning will likely be lowered early this afternoon. No thanks to George Bush.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the East Coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from the border with Belize northward
to Cancun. Anti-American protest are sure to result.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for portions of eastern
Cuba...Cindy Sheman and Michael Moore will provide free health care because the United State hates Cubans and blacks. MTV said so, it must be true.
Sorry, I was answering a question regarding second Mexico land fall. Not the Yucatan...Cat 5
Second, they want another disaster to blame on Global Warming, and also blame Bush for not doing enough like they did with Katrina.
And third, the Democratic candidates could use a disaster to show how compassionate and concerned they are with a stump speech followed by photo-op in hip boots.
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